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Chinese aircraft: The art of 'modelology' to predict trends
Concept models at airshows allow analysts to obtain insights about future Chinese combat aircraft, writes Richard D Fisher Jr
China has maintained a wall of silence about its domestic military aerospace programs since its industrial development began. This, combined with Beijing's wide ranging and punitive definition of 'state secrets', has made the Cold War practice of analyzing airshow models, or 'modelology', a useful tool in predicting future Chinese combat aircraft trends.
Fortunately for China watchers, models are a regular feature of China's biennial Zhuhai and Beijing airshows and are popular for a number of reasons: they save manufacturers the expense of displaying full-size kit and, in cases where models have appeared before the actual aircraft, they allow the manufacturer to manage how much data it reveals.
Such concept models also allow manufacturers to take part in government-approved dis information campaigns: a deliberate effort to foster ambiguity that has led some analysts to dismiss all aircraft models as vaporware.
As the table illustrates, this is not entirely fair as many models – or later iterations thereof – have made it to the prototype and production phase.
Fighter aircraft
Nonetheless, the vaporware tag sticks, partly because of the often considerable time lag between a model being publicized and the emergence of the real thing. One notable example is the Xian Aircraft Corporation JH-7 (FB-7) strike fighter, which was first revealed in model form at the 1988 Farnborough Airshow. A fully fledged aircraft did not appear in public until the 1998 Zhuhai Air show.
Occasionally the credibility of an off-arms show aircraft model is boosted significantly, but not completely, by its appearance with a prominent Chinese political leader. In 1996 then Premier Li Peng was photographed with a model of an early configuration of the Chengdu Aircraft Company J-10 fourth-generation fighter, at the time lending considerable cachet to a program thought to be experiencing great technical challenges. More recently, in 2006 a politician was shown visiting Chengdu's 601 Design Institute, providing a glimpse of an early model of the J-20 stealth fighter whose existence was very publicly leaked during then US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates' visit to China in January 2011.
Another recent example was the unveiling at a model aircraft show in September 20ll by Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC) of a twin-engine stealthy fifth generation fighter provisionally named the F-60: a model that received renewed interest in June 2012 when images appeared of a full-scale aircraft with a similar platform being transported on a flatbed trailer. Observers speculated that this was SAC's long-rumored fifth generation fighter, or a mock-Up, being moved to a museum or test Centre.
An earlier foray by SAC into fifth-generation fighters shows the potential pitfalls of this approach: at the 2006 Zhuhai show SAC revealed an apparent forward-swept wing advanced single engine fighter for which there has been no subsequent information.
Unmanned aircraft
Substantial investment by Chinese companies in unmanned aircraft has led to a plethora of plausible military programs appearing at shows and events. At the September 2011 model aircraft event SAC also unveiled a swept-wing turbofan-powered unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV).
The recent sight of the potential F-60 supports the credibility of this UCAV being a future Shenyang program, as do SAC displays of UCAV models at the 2006 and 2008 Zhuhai shows.
These UCAVs - the sharply shaped supersonic-capable Anjian (Dark Sword/Hidden Knife), which a placard suggested would be used for counter-air missions, and a model of the subsonic forward-swept wing Warrior Eagle - would represent major advances in Chinese technology.
To date officials have not offered specifics about either. One example of a project that may support the belief that these programs are in the pipeline is the Guizhou Aircraft Company long-range Soar Dragon surveillance UAV. The UAV has a unique 'box wing' configuration and first appeared in model form at the 2006 Zhuhai Airshow. Officials would not comment on the program and it remained little more than an airshow concept model until images surfaced in mid-2011 of a full-size Soar Dragon UAV undergoing ground testing at the Chengdu Aircraft Company test field.
Transports
China's lack of transparency is not limited to its combat aircraft or UAV programs. In 2007 and 2009 models emerged of the Xian Y-20 tactical transport aircraft. While its existence has been confirmed by Ukrainian and Russian sources, we know little about this project other than it is expected to be unveiled this year.
As with fighter projects, a well-timed photo opportunity with a prominent politician can boost a transport's profile. At the end of 2007 Premier Wen Jiabao appeared with a model of a four-turbofan engine airliner at the First Aircraft Design Institute, which is connected to the Xian Aircraft Company.
Chinese officials have repeatedly declined to answer questions about this program, which might reveal accelerated ambitions to compete with Western airline makers. Such an aircraft could also perform multiple military missions. Some models remain mysteries.
At the 2002 Zhuhai Air show an upstart company named Beijing Super wing used a video of a radio-controlled model to unveil its CY-I: a low-cost canard fighter that used long fuselage strakes to dispense with expensive fly-by-wire systems. By the 2004 Zhuhai show the model had been renamed LFC-r6 and was apparently under development by the Guizhou Aircraft Company, whose FTC-2000/JL-9 provided the basis for the LFC-r6's forward fuselage. Although company officials have repeatedly mentioned imminent proto typing, this fighter has not been seen.
More mystery models emerged in October 2009 at a new China Aviation Museum display to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the People's Liberation Army Air Force. On show was a twin jet-engine delta-wing UAV that could represent a supersonic unmanned aircraft development program, while nearby was what appeared to be a large all delta wing four-engine strategic bombers. A wall mural showed the 'Wen Jiabao' four-engine transport aircraft armed with a nose-mounted laser that was attacking a satellite.
Although no data has been released that would lend credibility to these models, the same 2009 China Aviation Museum display did feature a model of the Anjian UCAV, keeping interest in this program's future alive.
Richard 0 Fisher Jr. is a senior fellow with the International Assessment and Strategy Center in Washington, DC
China’s Aircraft –From Models to Reality.
Aircraft……………….Model first seen………………… Aircraft's first known appearance
Super-7/FC-1…….. 1986…………………………………… 2003
Xian JH-7……………. 1988…………………………………. 1998
Chengdu J-10…….. 1996………………………………….. 1999
Guizhou FTC-2000.. 2000………………………………… 2003
Hongdu L•15……….. 2001………………………………… 2005
Xian Y-8X…………….. 2000……………………………….. Likely cancelled
CY-1 ILFC-1 6……….. 2002……………………………….. Not yet realised or cancelled
Xian Y-9……………….. 2002……………………………….. 2010
Chengdu fifth –generation fighter.. 2006………… 2010
Guizhou Soar Dragon UAV.. 2006……………………. 2011
Chengdu Tian Yi UAV… 2006…………………………… 2007
Shenyang Anjian UCAV.. 2006………………………… Not yet realised
Shenyang Warrior Eagle UCAV.. 2006…………….. Not yet realised
Shenyang forward-wing fighter.. 2006…………… Not yet realised
Xian 4-turbofan transport…………. 2007…………. Not yet realised
Four-engine delta bomber.. 2009……………………. Not yet realised
Shenyang swept -wing UCAV.. 2011……………….. Not yet realised
Shenyang fifth-generation fighter.. 2011……….. 2012 or not yet realised
Concept models at airshows allow analysts to obtain insights about future Chinese combat aircraft, writes Richard D Fisher Jr
China has maintained a wall of silence about its domestic military aerospace programs since its industrial development began. This, combined with Beijing's wide ranging and punitive definition of 'state secrets', has made the Cold War practice of analyzing airshow models, or 'modelology', a useful tool in predicting future Chinese combat aircraft trends.
Fortunately for China watchers, models are a regular feature of China's biennial Zhuhai and Beijing airshows and are popular for a number of reasons: they save manufacturers the expense of displaying full-size kit and, in cases where models have appeared before the actual aircraft, they allow the manufacturer to manage how much data it reveals.
Such concept models also allow manufacturers to take part in government-approved dis information campaigns: a deliberate effort to foster ambiguity that has led some analysts to dismiss all aircraft models as vaporware.
As the table illustrates, this is not entirely fair as many models – or later iterations thereof – have made it to the prototype and production phase.
Fighter aircraft
Nonetheless, the vaporware tag sticks, partly because of the often considerable time lag between a model being publicized and the emergence of the real thing. One notable example is the Xian Aircraft Corporation JH-7 (FB-7) strike fighter, which was first revealed in model form at the 1988 Farnborough Airshow. A fully fledged aircraft did not appear in public until the 1998 Zhuhai Air show.
Occasionally the credibility of an off-arms show aircraft model is boosted significantly, but not completely, by its appearance with a prominent Chinese political leader. In 1996 then Premier Li Peng was photographed with a model of an early configuration of the Chengdu Aircraft Company J-10 fourth-generation fighter, at the time lending considerable cachet to a program thought to be experiencing great technical challenges. More recently, in 2006 a politician was shown visiting Chengdu's 601 Design Institute, providing a glimpse of an early model of the J-20 stealth fighter whose existence was very publicly leaked during then US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates' visit to China in January 2011.
Another recent example was the unveiling at a model aircraft show in September 20ll by Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC) of a twin-engine stealthy fifth generation fighter provisionally named the F-60: a model that received renewed interest in June 2012 when images appeared of a full-scale aircraft with a similar platform being transported on a flatbed trailer. Observers speculated that this was SAC's long-rumored fifth generation fighter, or a mock-Up, being moved to a museum or test Centre.
An earlier foray by SAC into fifth-generation fighters shows the potential pitfalls of this approach: at the 2006 Zhuhai show SAC revealed an apparent forward-swept wing advanced single engine fighter for which there has been no subsequent information.
Unmanned aircraft
Substantial investment by Chinese companies in unmanned aircraft has led to a plethora of plausible military programs appearing at shows and events. At the September 2011 model aircraft event SAC also unveiled a swept-wing turbofan-powered unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV).
The recent sight of the potential F-60 supports the credibility of this UCAV being a future Shenyang program, as do SAC displays of UCAV models at the 2006 and 2008 Zhuhai shows.
These UCAVs - the sharply shaped supersonic-capable Anjian (Dark Sword/Hidden Knife), which a placard suggested would be used for counter-air missions, and a model of the subsonic forward-swept wing Warrior Eagle - would represent major advances in Chinese technology.
To date officials have not offered specifics about either. One example of a project that may support the belief that these programs are in the pipeline is the Guizhou Aircraft Company long-range Soar Dragon surveillance UAV. The UAV has a unique 'box wing' configuration and first appeared in model form at the 2006 Zhuhai Airshow. Officials would not comment on the program and it remained little more than an airshow concept model until images surfaced in mid-2011 of a full-size Soar Dragon UAV undergoing ground testing at the Chengdu Aircraft Company test field.
Transports
China's lack of transparency is not limited to its combat aircraft or UAV programs. In 2007 and 2009 models emerged of the Xian Y-20 tactical transport aircraft. While its existence has been confirmed by Ukrainian and Russian sources, we know little about this project other than it is expected to be unveiled this year.
As with fighter projects, a well-timed photo opportunity with a prominent politician can boost a transport's profile. At the end of 2007 Premier Wen Jiabao appeared with a model of a four-turbofan engine airliner at the First Aircraft Design Institute, which is connected to the Xian Aircraft Company.
Chinese officials have repeatedly declined to answer questions about this program, which might reveal accelerated ambitions to compete with Western airline makers. Such an aircraft could also perform multiple military missions. Some models remain mysteries.
At the 2002 Zhuhai Air show an upstart company named Beijing Super wing used a video of a radio-controlled model to unveil its CY-I: a low-cost canard fighter that used long fuselage strakes to dispense with expensive fly-by-wire systems. By the 2004 Zhuhai show the model had been renamed LFC-r6 and was apparently under development by the Guizhou Aircraft Company, whose FTC-2000/JL-9 provided the basis for the LFC-r6's forward fuselage. Although company officials have repeatedly mentioned imminent proto typing, this fighter has not been seen.
More mystery models emerged in October 2009 at a new China Aviation Museum display to commemorate the 60th anniversary of the People's Liberation Army Air Force. On show was a twin jet-engine delta-wing UAV that could represent a supersonic unmanned aircraft development program, while nearby was what appeared to be a large all delta wing four-engine strategic bombers. A wall mural showed the 'Wen Jiabao' four-engine transport aircraft armed with a nose-mounted laser that was attacking a satellite.
Although no data has been released that would lend credibility to these models, the same 2009 China Aviation Museum display did feature a model of the Anjian UCAV, keeping interest in this program's future alive.
Richard 0 Fisher Jr. is a senior fellow with the International Assessment and Strategy Center in Washington, DC
China’s Aircraft –From Models to Reality.
Aircraft……………….Model first seen………………… Aircraft's first known appearance
Super-7/FC-1…….. 1986…………………………………… 2003
Xian JH-7……………. 1988…………………………………. 1998
Chengdu J-10…….. 1996………………………………….. 1999
Guizhou FTC-2000.. 2000………………………………… 2003
Hongdu L•15……….. 2001………………………………… 2005
Xian Y-8X…………….. 2000……………………………….. Likely cancelled
CY-1 ILFC-1 6……….. 2002……………………………….. Not yet realised or cancelled
Xian Y-9……………….. 2002……………………………….. 2010
Chengdu fifth –generation fighter.. 2006………… 2010
Guizhou Soar Dragon UAV.. 2006……………………. 2011
Chengdu Tian Yi UAV… 2006…………………………… 2007
Shenyang Anjian UCAV.. 2006………………………… Not yet realised
Shenyang Warrior Eagle UCAV.. 2006…………….. Not yet realised
Shenyang forward-wing fighter.. 2006…………… Not yet realised
Xian 4-turbofan transport…………. 2007…………. Not yet realised
Four-engine delta bomber.. 2009……………………. Not yet realised
Shenyang swept -wing UCAV.. 2011……………….. Not yet realised
Shenyang fifth-generation fighter.. 2011……….. 2012 or not yet realised
