China's Military Buildup Could Push USA Out of Asia

[CardSharp]

This isn't going to happen without proxy wars. India could be the first.

Wrong direction and wrong set of actors.

 

[Akasa]

Asia isn't the US.

 

[Renegade]

Alliances change when balance of power shifts. Countries Americans can count on in the region are basically limited to Japan, South Korea and to a less extend Vietnam and Singapore. For rest of the ASEA, the most U.S. can hope is to prevent them from bandwagoning with China.

Yes alliances do shift when the balance of power shifts, but surprisingly it has not happened in the case of China (soft power yes, to certain extent but military power certainly not). China has gone to become the 2nd largest economy from nearly nothing a few decades back, but seems to lack any credible allies at all.

The US has the big advantage of having very reliable allies in the region, the same cant be said of China. There is no single country that will throw its weight behind China like the Japanese & the South Koreans will do with the Americans.

In recent times China has also antagonized most of its neighbors - Japan on the island issue, nearly all the South East Asian countries by calming over-lordship over the South China sea, South Korea by not reining in North Korea despite serious provocation, pissed India on the Visa issue, Vietnam has been historically pissed with you lot & the Singaporeans are too heavily invested with the Americans to ever take your side. Frankly, that is some achievement even by Chinese standards.

The Japanese who constitute the worlds 3rd largest economy are so pissed with you that they have recently shifted their military poster from one concentrated on the Soviet threat to one concentrated on the Chinese threat now. The Americans and the Japanese & are simply more than a match for China, let alone Vietnam, South Kore & another giant in the form of India sitting on your borders.

 

[Renegade]

This isn't going to happen without proxy wars. India could be the first.

Well, Pakistan tried it out & look where they are today. It will be imprudent to forget these valuable lessons in a hurry.

 

[below_freezing]

Yes alliances do shift when the balance of power shifts, but surprisingly it has not happened in the case of China (soft power yes, to certain extent but military power certainly not). China has gone to become the 2nd largest economy from nearly nothing a few decades back, but seems to lack any credible allies at all.

The US has the big advantage of having very reliable allies in the region, the same cant be said of China. There is no single country that will throw its weight behind China like the Japanese & the South Koreans will do with the Americans.

In recent times China has also antagonized most of its neighbors - Japan on the island issue, nearly all the South East Asian countries by calming over-lordship over the South China sea, South Korea by not reining in North Korea despite serious provocation, pissed India on the Visa issue, Vietnam has been historically pissed with you lot & the Singaporeans are too heavily invested with the Americans to ever take your side. Frankly, that is some achievement even by Chinese standards.

The Japanese who constitute the worlds 3rd largest economy are so pissed with you that they have recently shifted their military poster from one concentrated on the Soviet threat to one concentrated on the Chinese threat now. The Americans and the Japanese & are simply more than a match for China, let alone Vietnam, South Kore & another giant in the form of India sitting on your borders.

Just like mafia criminals. Make an example out of the boss and the little brothers run like bugs.

The question is now, whether India wants to be the one that's the "example", or whether it thinks that by joining a mafia, it will be the lucky one not to be shot by the storeowner they're robbing.

Now, US is across the ocean. But India is right on our border.

 

[pluto]

who wrote the assay? ridiculous.
not gonna happen just like U.S not push Russia/China out of South America.
nations will seek balance between super powers, unless you launch a war and destroy your opponent, you are not able to push the other completely out of the region.

and to some chinese folks here, you gotta give enough respect to your opponents.

 

[Nomenclature]

Yes alliances do shift when the balance of power shifts, but surprisingly it has not happened in the case of China (soft power yes, to certain extent but military power certainly not). China has gone to become the 2nd largest economy from nearly nothing a few decades back, but seems to lack any credible allies at all.

The US has the big advantage of having very reliable allies in the region, the same cant be said of China. There is no single country that will throw its weight behind China like the Japanese & the South Koreans will do with the Americans.

That's because in terms of military power, the balance in the region has yet to shift at all. U.S. still enjoy an overwhelming military advantage over China. The simple fact is, among the world's major powers, no non-U.S allied power has any 'credible allies'. Not China, not Russia and not India.

In recent times China has also antagonized most of its neighbors - Japan on the island issue, nearly all the South East Asian countries by calming over-lordship over the South China sea, South Korea by not reining in North Korea despite serious provocation, pissed India on the Visa issue, Vietnam has been historically pissed with you lot & the Singaporeans are too heavily invested with the Americans to ever take your side. Frankly, that is some achievement even by Chinese standards.

The Japanese who constitute the worlds 3rd largest economy are so pissed with you that they have recently shifted their military poster from one concentrated on the Soviet threat to one concentrated on the Chinese threat now. The Americans and the Japanese & are simply more than a match for China, let alone Vietnam, South Kore & another giant in the form of India sitting on your borders.

Some people have this unfortunate tendency to undercount how many neighbors China has. China has 14 land neighbors and at least 6 more maritime neighbors. China's relationship with Japan, Vietnam and South Korea ain't in best shapes. And we do have disputes with Philippines flaring up every now and then. But how do you make 'most neighbors' out of those countries is a mystery to me. And please don't lump all ASEAN countries together, China enjoys excellent relations with all continental ASEAN countries except Vietnam.

 

[Anonymous user]

Yes alliances do shift when the balance of power shifts, but surprisingly it has not happened in the case of China (soft power yes, to certain extent but military power certainly not). China has gone to become the 2nd largest economy from nearly nothing a few decades back, but seems to lack any credible allies at all.

The US has the big advantage of having very reliable allies in the region, the same cant be said of China. There is no single country that will throw its weight behind China like the Japanese & the South Koreans will do with the Americans.

In recent times China has also antagonized most of its neighbors - Japan on the island issue, nearly all the South East Asian countries by calming over-lordship over the South China sea, South Korea by not reining in North Korea despite serious provocation, pissed India on the Visa issue, Vietnam has been historically pissed with you lot & the Singaporeans are too heavily invested with the Americans to ever take your side. Frankly, that is some achievement even by Chinese standards.

The Japanese who constitute the worlds 3rd largest economy are so pissed with you that they have recently shifted their military poster from one concentrated on the Soviet threat to one concentrated on the Chinese threat now. The Americans and the Japanese & are simply more than a match for China, let alone Vietnam, South Kore & another giant in the form of India sitting on your borders.

What makes you think China will get attacked alone with all these powers? Do you not think North Korea, Pakistan, Burma etc would stand there with their hand behind their back?

Singapore will most likely stay neutral, the most support we will give is to allow US ships refueling. Join in the fray no thank you

I believe Russia will either stay neutral or help China, they will get impacted the most from a unstable China being next to the border

This pretty much sums the status quo

 

[justanobserver]

What makes you think China will get attacked alone with all these powers? Do you not think North Korea, Pakistan, Burma etc would stand there with their hand behind their back?

Burma won't care

 

[tanlixiang28776]

Burma won't care

Honestly it doesn't matter. China has faced America with 16 allies before in its weakest time. It'll do it again if needed when its much stronger,

 

[Veritas]

Just like mafia criminals. Make an example out of the boss and the little brothers run like bugs.

The question is now, whether India wants to be the one that's the "example", or whether it thinks that by joining a mafia, it will be the lucky one not to be shot by the storeowner they're robbing.

Now, US is across the ocean. But India is right on our border.

You are most welcome to make Example of India. China is no where near the force projection of US and US has two neighbors, and I think China has 17 or so. That in itself is a huge deal, any expansionist or belligerent posture towards even a tiny neighbor is going to rake up the things for China in many fronts.

China still has a smaller Navy than Japan.

 

[tanlixiang28776]

You are most welcome to make Example of India. China is no where near the force projection of US and US has two neighbors, and I think China has 17 or so. That in itself is a huge deal, any expansionist or belligerent posture towards even a tiny neighbor is going to rake up the things for China in many fronts.

China still has a smaller Navy than Japan.

Smaller surface fleet maybe. In submarines we are far ahead.

 

[Anonymous user]

Burma won't care

Actually it doesn't matter no one can afford a war with China unless they want a big unstable country with nukes at BMW prices

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Honestly it doesn't matter. China has faced America with 16 allies before in its weakest time. It'll do it again if needed when its much stronger,

Exactly right.

Though of course, we should try to avoid such wars.

We need to put all of our effort into development.

 

[below_freezing]

You are most welcome to make Example of India. China is no where near the force projection of US and US has two neighbors, and I think China has 17 or so. That in itself is a huge deal, any expansionist or belligerent posture towards even a tiny neighbor is going to rake up the things for China in many fronts.

China still has a smaller Navy than Japan.

We made an example of India before. If you want to group yourself with mafia criminals, prepared to be treated like one.