China's Falling Birth Rate: Can It Sustain The Rise To Superpower?

[nang2]

No, but coercion is not monopolized by the government. That's a lesson people like you really need to learn. Markets can be coercive and destructive and government intervention is required to stop it.

Market, in its essence, means voluntary exchange. In another word, it can never be coercive (note the word "voluntary"). It doesn't mean there would be no fraud, which is the right thing government intervention should address. Just like marriage through mutual consent. If there is domestic violence, sure, government should step in. But, please, please, please, don't bust in everything the couple do.

 

[Sasquatch]

Artificial Womb, this technology is already being worked on. Women will no longer be required to produce children, and governments can use this to help replenish aging populations.

Combined with AI, Automation, and allowing immigration from overseas Han Chinese the problem can be manageable. Even if the 2.2 TFR can't be reached, maintaining it around 1.7 or 1.8 will be sufficient.

 

[Communism]

Artificial Womb, this technology is already being worked on. Women will no longer be required to produce children, and governments can use this to help replenish aging populations.

Combined with AI, Automation, and allowing immigration from overseas Han Chinese the problem can be manageable. Even if the 2.2 TFR can't be reached, maintaining it around 1.7 or 1.8 will be sufficient.

You can already impregnate grandmas if you want to.

The problem is that you create significantly inferior children that way.

There is no alternative to young women having babies (other than immigration).

 

[CIA Mole]

what about legalizing. euthanasia for 65+? sounds like something commies would do

 

[aziqbal]

Market, in its essence, means voluntary exchange. In another word, it can never be coercive (note the word "voluntary"). It doesn't mean there would be no fraud, which is the right thing government intervention should address. Just like marriage through mutual consent. If there is domestic violence, sure, government should step in. But, please, please, please, don't bust in everything the couple do.

China double digit days are long gone

China decline has started

 

[MH.Yang]

what about legalizing. euthanasia for 65+? sounds like something commies would do

The reality is. Communist China implements the COVID19 zeroing policy in China in order to protect the elderly 65+ who cannot be vaccinated.
The capitalist USA has been unwilling to implement a strong blockade for the sake of economy, resulting in a large number of elderly people being slaughtered.

 

[aziqbal]

The reality is. Communist China implements the COVID19 zeroing policy in China in order to protect the elderly 65+ who cannot be vaccinated.
The capitalist USA has been unwilling to implement a strong blockade for the sake of economy, resulting in a large number of elderly people being slaughtered.

yes but COVID came from China

so your argument is void

 

[Paul2]

A declining population may impact domestic consumption, but I also believe the industrial base should keep rolling like you said, because of automation. In fact record numbers of robots are being added every year. Say in 2020 China Mainland alone accounted for 44% of world's total installations, even more than the next four industrial powers combined (Japan, US, South Korea & Germany totaled 28%). These hard facts are seldom reported by western media for obvious reasons, as if China has not already risen in technology & industrial competitiveness, instead they pretend to ask sneaky question on false premise like whether China "can rise" or not, they are good at that.

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This trend is expected to continue until density of robots reaches industrial level of SG/SK sometime around 2030. With both the agricultural and industrial sectors increasingly intelligent & automated, more population will be engaged in services sector, R&D.

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Robots really are an industry specific thing, not and industry wide critical input.

Myth 2 — manufacturing industry is really not that labour intensive.

Assembly line workers taking home 10000-12000 per months are not a rarity in Guangdong today, and junior engineers with 2 year college 15000. This is comparable to USA, yet I don't see factories moving to the US. It's really not that critical for anything, but things like shoes, and garments.

Cost of land, the ridiculous cost of land is the real reason for industry croaking, seconded by cost of infra connection, and taxes.

 

[MH.Yang]

yes but COVID came from China

so your argument is void

COVID comes from the fort Detrick biological laboratory in the USA.

 

[CIA Mole]

The reality is. Communist China implements the COVID19 zeroing policy in China in order to protect the elderly 65+ who cannot be vaccinated.
The capitalist USA has been unwilling to implement a strong blockade for the sake of economy, resulting in a large number of elderly people being slaughtered.

be honest we all know its because the commie leadership is vulnerable to the disease

 

[aziqbal]

COVID comes from the fort Detrick biological laboratory in the USA.

says the Communist regime

 

[IblinI]

says the Communist regime

Says a pakistani blood but white washed boy.

 

[Brainsucker]

Are those for-profit tutoring classes mandatory?

Actually I agree with Casual. Basically modern education system is indeed very burdening for parents. At least, for parents who focus on the quality of their children education. And because Chinese are culturally put their children education as the top priority, their first instinct will put the money on their child's private-tutoring classes.

But it is not the only reason of birth-rate decline.

I think the problem of "big cities" expensive living cost is the reason why young people don't want to marry and have children. It is not only in China, but everywhere in this world.

 

[Brainsucker]

That's based on the assumption that young people produce the same amount of wealth and/or taxes as older people.

That's almost never true.

Almost all wealth and/or taxes is produced by older people, so the whole debate about "less young people to support the old" is simply a canard most of the time.

I disagree. It is on all about young versus old people. But productive versus unproductive people. Old people that we mentioned here are non-productive people who are not working. Not old people who have life-time work like having a shop, or a self-employed worker like private-practice doctors, etc. They are usually paid-worker who have retired and don't have any income anymore. So they become burden as they no longer able to feed themselves without the help of other people.

If they have short life, then the burden will not become problematic. But if they have long-life added with poor health that need regular medical attention, then they can become the burden of their children, or Government welfare program that paid for their daily life.

 

[Communism]

I disagree. It is on all about young versus old people. But productive versus unproductive people. Old people that we mentioned here are non-productive people who are not working. Not old people who have life-time work like having a shop, or a self-employed worker like private-practice doctors, etc. They are usually paid-worker who have retired and don't have any income anymore. So they become burden as they no longer able to feed themselves without the help of other people.

If they have short life, then the burden will not become problematic. But if they have long-life added with poor health that need regular medical attention, then they can become the burden of their children, or Government welfare program that paid for their daily life.

If the country didn't go through hyperinflation or a devastating war, then your point is simply wrong.

You are falling for the framing that benefits are "paid for."

That is simply a canard.

Benefits are always a transfer payment.

When people say "social security is going bankrupt," what they are pretending is that social security/social welfare is something where one pays for one's own benefits, which is a total lie.

What they really mean is that rich old people do not want to pay taxes to benefit poor old people.

Every other possible "interpretation" is a fabrication.

Actually I agree with Casual. Basically modern education system is indeed very burdening for parents. At least, for parents who focus on the quality of their children education. And because Chinese are culturally put their children education as the top priority, their first instinct will put the money on their child's private-tutoring classes.

But it is not the only reason of birth-rate decline.

I think the problem of "big cities" expensive living cost is the reason why young people don't want to marry and have children. It is not only in China, but everywhere in this world.

Proven to be totally false in every single country where birth rates plummet.

Europe and the Soviet Union gave extravagant benefits to families and mothers to encourage extra births but it accomplished very little.

The reason for falling birthrates is primarily due to the time it takes for females to become highly trained labor for the economy, which significantly eats away at the time they are the most productive producers of healthy non-inferior offspring, which is shortly after puberty till about age 25.