China's Falling Birth Rate: Can It Sustain The Rise To Superpower?

[casual]

Are those for-profit tutoring classes mandatory?

why are you asking me? aren't you from china?

 

[Cheehg]

Yes. The population problem is our biggest threat now. Although I don't know how to solve this problem, I believe in CCP. CCP has strong ability and wisdom. It has led us out of difficulties and created miracles again and again. We remain convinced that it can continue to do so.

CPC already asked all the members need to get married and have 3 children.

 

[lcloo]

Does not matter about the two child policy or three child policy, the main issue is that young couples do not want to have more children due to their financial commitment.

Unlike the West and most of the rest of the world, older people in China are generally far more richer than young couples in their twenties and thirties, due to their saving habits. It is not uncommon that people saved 30% of their income for old age expenses.

Many young couples need financial assitence from their parents to buy houses and to get marry. It is more like the old people are financing the young people instead of the other way around.

 

[Communism]

Does not matter about the two child policy or three child policy, the main issue is that young couples do not want to have more children due to their financial commitment.

Unlike the West and most of the rest of the world, older people in China are generally far more richer than young couples in their twenties and thirties, due to their saving habits. It is not uncommon that people saved 30% of their income for old age expenses.

Many young couples need financial assitence from their parents to buy houses and to get marry. It is more like the old people are financing the young people instead of the other way around.

Old people create more wealth, are richer, and pay more taxes in pretty much any country that hasn't been through hyperinflation.

The canard was invented because rich old people don't want to pay taxes that go to poorer old people and wanted to shift the blame to young people instead.

 

[vi-va]

Israel controls Europe and North America, if there was only 1 person in Israel, they will have the might of the western world behind them. China or any other country in the world doesn't have the same luxury.

If that's the case, the only 1 person in Israel must be Jesus.

Labour intensive workers industries are moving out of China for more than 10 years now, added to this is the world's largest workforce of robots and AI machines are everywhere. The pressure for human workers need have been reduced drastically.

I visited a bank in Quanzhou city 2 years ago to change US dollar to RMB, to my surprise the bank has only 2 customers including myself, and saw only 4 bank employees ( a guard, 2 counter clerks, a customer service person). Everybody goes cashless and online, people do not go to bank anymore.

in contrast 10 years ago, in a little Shajing town (population around 200,000 then) in Shenzhen, the bank I went regularly was always full of customers of around 30 to 40 people, and the bank has no less than 20 staff. And customers had to wait for 20 to 30 minutes to be served.

The above example on reduction of the need for human operations on banking show the changes in the last 10 years , and will keep on changing in China in every industries. Less and less human workers are needed.

Robots and AI machines's contribution to Chinese GDP will be increase incrementary every year in the future.

Chinese don't use cash most of the time. Most banking business had been handled by app on cellphone.

I can do anything on cellphone, facial recognition and fingerprint can ensure my safety.

 

[vi-va]

I've once thought of this interesting scenario if things continue as it is.

Israel currently has a TFR of 3.0, which means that each generation will be around 3.0/2.1 = ~1.4x the size of the previous generation. Each generation will grow around 40%.
China currently has a TFR of 1.3, which means that each generation will be around 1.3/2.1 = ~0.6x the size of the previous generation. Each generation will shrink around 40%.

Assuming TFR remains the same and there is no migration, by the 6th generation:

Israel would have an estimated population of 9mil * 1.4^6 = ~68mil.
China would have an estimated population of 1400mil * 0.6^6 = ~65mil.

Under current assumptions Israel may have a larger (and significantly younger) population than China in 6 generations, or around 150 years if each generation lasts 25 years.

Of course it's an oversimplified projection to assume current trends will remain as it is without considering land, migration, lifespan etc.

But I think it puts into perspective how serious and irreversible the population problem is if we extrapolate them over a century. China's population might decline by 95% over the next 150 years during peacetime. 150 years may sound like a long time, but it's considered a short period in the long history of Chinese civilization.



I've said before in this forum years ago that China's greatest long term threat is her low TFR, not the US or India or whatever, and the population policy should've been abolished long ago.

State level policy has been adopted to increase birth rate. I think it's a kind of late, but it's managable.

Ideal population in China should be around 500 millions - 1 billion. 1.4 billion is too much.

Highly developed society with 500 millions is strong enough, think about it. Singapore only 5 millions.

Population pyramid is an big issue, but China is not US. China is more like Japan. The state will handle it in a very different way than western countries on population decline. China will not allow huge immigration.

Agricultural industry need much fewer labors than 20 years ago. 2 millions farmers feed 300 million Americans. China will gradually be the same.

Trucks, buses, automobiles will be automated. Most banking has been handled by cellphone apps. China is a cashless society now. Most low-end manufacturing jobs will move to ASEAN, and India, Bangladesh, Africa.

I think 1 billion for 2060 is ok as long as they are well-educated, disciplined, innovative and cultivated.

 

[MH.Yang]

Are those for-profit tutoring classes mandatory?

Not mandatory.
But if all your classmates go to cram school, you have no other choice, unless you want to be the worst one among them.

Muslims can help, but if China lets them be Muslim.....

This question has nothing to do with faith.
There are many Muslims in China, and their fertility rate is also falling sharply.

 

[MH.Yang]

The only solution to population collapse in a country without resorting to immigration is to ban female education past age 18.

Combine that with greatly increasing education efficiency and having kids go to school at least 40 hours a week all year with no breaks and population crisis is easy to solve.

No amount of subsidies will increase the amount of procreation years for the female population.

The key is to maximize birth rates between puberty and the age of 25, after which offspring quality starts degrading.

The horrifically inefficient education industry in most countries which hasn't been much improved since the Prussian Military Academies that they were modeled upon is the main reason for the horrible birth rates among countries with highly educated female populations.

If 40 hours a week with no breaks isn't enough, then simply up the number of education hours per week to 56 and remove weekends.

The goal is to get at minimum the equivalent of a Master's Degree by age 18.

This is why the Soviet Union had/has the worst fertility rate on the planet.

China's constitution guarantee women's rights, including the right to education.
Moreover, the Chinese have long been used to and accepted the world of equality between men and women, restricting women's right to education will be opposed by the whole Chinese people.
Your idea has touched China's political bottom line, and it is not feasible.

 

[Communism]

China's constitution guarantee women's rights, including the right to education.
Moreover, the Chinese have long been used to and accepted the world of equality between men and women, restricting women's right to education will be opposed by the whole Chinese people.
Your idea has touched China's political bottom line, and it is not feasible.

Well, then China is going to go the way of the Soviet Union in terms of birth rate then.

The classic trade off between highly educated female workforce and higher birthrates can only be solved by more efficient education.

 

[Maula Jatt]

Not mandatory.
But if all your classmates go to cram school, you have no other choice, unless you want to be the worst one among them.

This question has nothing to do with faith.
There are many Muslims in China, and their fertility rate is also falling sharply.

Mullahs and nationalists

 

[MH.Yang]

China, Pakistan’s best friend controls the water.
The monsoon rains in India have been faltering for a number of years now e.g. more rain on far fewer days, climate change is having an impact They face acute shortages.

Yes, China controls the upstream of the water source, the upstream is no problem.
But India controls the middle reaches of the water, which is a problem.
To tell you the truth, I don't believe in Indian morality.

 

[Battlion25]

Yes, China controls the upstream of the water source, the upstream is no problem.
But India controls the middle reaches of the water, which is a problem.

His an Israeli or jew that guy you have replied to.. @SaadH his cuckin suking is out of hand.. Besides Israel is the puppet of the west not like he put it.. Just letting you in on the loop

 

[MH.Yang]

It is not only the giant industrial monster that needs feeding also the population pyramid index meaning there will be huge loss of tax payers overnight because of exiting population due to age being larger then the younger population due to the 1 child policy but nothing to be worried about this impact will only last for a short window of 15 years max and China has the resources to aritifically fill the gap for these 15 years span and then China's population pyramid index will go into normal mode.. It is a short window and something China has the resources to fix..

I'm not that optimistic. If we want to repair the population pyramid, we must first restore fertility. But we still can't.

CPC already asked all the members need to get married and have 3 children.

It is not possible for a CCP to enact such a policy.

 

[fallstuff]

I'm sure CCP will go to the extreme of sending CCP members to the homes of people to make sure couples mating to conceive.

CCP been doing something along those lines in the homes of Uyghurs.

 

[MH.Yang]

I'm sure CCP will go to the extreme of sending CCP members to the homes of people to make sure couples mating to conceive.

CCP been doing something along those lines in the homes of Uyghurs.

This can't happen.

BTW: China has 90 million Communists, 80 million members of the Communist Youth League and 140 million young pioneers. With a population of 1.4 billion, China has 310 million Communist parties at all levels. So almost every family has a Communist Party.