China's Falling Birth Rate: Can It Sustain The Rise To Superpower?

[FairAndUnbiased]

Can you actully believe some folks in here like @Sainthood 101 and some others were proposing child control policy on Pakistan and campaigning for it. I was Telling them constantly try to speak with people who have tried it and have experience in this they will tell you it's negative effects and that this is no-no

Countries like Pakistan, Egypt, Iraq, Bangladesh and Vietnam don't control their own water. They're controlled by adversaries. That is a population risk. Iraq for example has it's rivers owned by Turkey and Syria.

They can't cut you off enough to make you thirsty but they can cut off enough to stop your crop growth. Lack food = riots with big population.

India is far luckier - they have the monsoons.

 

[casual]

China needs action on this now.
More state holidays, tax breaks for couples having more than 2, subsidised housing etc.

China is taking action. The recent changes banning for profit tutoring classes will reduce costs of raising children by a large amount. I think next China will come out with free daycare.

that is the whole point Pakistan wants bigger population.. You don't repress the birth-rate it will cause negative effects if it is 5.4 and natural you simple let it flow because what is happening there is natural growth

It is a quality vs quantity issue. The less children a family have, the more resources those children have and quality for those children will improve.

 

[nang2]

China is taking action. The recent changes banning for profit tutoring classes will reduce costs of raising children by a large amount. I think next China will come out with free daycare.

Are those for-profit tutoring classes mandatory?

 

[fitpOsitive]

Muslims can help, but if China lets them be Muslim.....

 

[Communism]

The only solution to population collapse in a country without resorting to immigration is to ban female education past age 18.

Combine that with greatly increasing education efficiency and having kids go to school at least 40 hours a week all year with no breaks and population crisis is easy to solve.

No amount of subsidies will increase the amount of procreation years for the female population.

The key is to maximize birth rates between puberty and the age of 25, after which offspring quality starts degrading.

The horrifically inefficient education industry in most countries which hasn't been much improved since the Prussian Military Academies that they were modeled upon is the main reason for the horrible birth rates among countries with highly educated female populations.

If 40 hours a week with no breaks isn't enough, then simply up the number of education hours per week to 56 and remove weekends.

The goal is to get at minimum the equivalent of a Master's Degree by age 18.

This is why the Soviet Union had/has the worst fertility rate on the planet.

 

[SaadH]

Still China has 100 times of population of Israel. I was told that Israel is strong, I bet 100 times isn't too less.

Israel controls Europe and North America, if there was only 1 person in Israel, they will have the might of the western world behind them. China or any other country in the world doesn't have the same luxury.

 

[waz]

Countries like Pakistan, Egypt, Iraq, Bangladesh and Vietnam don't control their own water. They're controlled by adversaries. That is a population risk. Iraq for example has it's rivers owned by Turkey and Syria.

They can't cut you off enough to make you thirsty but they can cut off enough to stop your crop growth. Lack food = riots with big population.

India is far luckier - they have the monsoons.

China, Pakistan’s best friend controls the water.
The monsoon rains in India have been faltering for a number of years now e.g. more rain on far fewer days, climate change is having an impact They face acute shortages.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

China, Pakistan’s best friend controls the water.
The monsoon rains in India have been faltering for a number of years now e.g. more rain on far fewer days, climate change is having an impact They face acute shortages.

Doesn't the Indus originate in IOK? And as much as I wish China controlled the Ganges and Brahmaputra for reals, most of their water is from rainfall and not glacier fed...

 

[Maula Jatt]

China, Pakistan’s best friend controls the water.
The monsoon rains in India have been faltering for a number of years now e.g. more rain on far fewer days, climate change is having an impact They face acute shortages.

Doesn't the Indus originate in IOK? And as much as I wish China controlled the Ganges and Brahmaputra for reals, most of their water is from rainfall and not glacier fed...

India could use Indus River water treaty to pressure Pakistan over LOC tensions

India could use Pakistan's desperate need for water as leverage in their latest tussle over militants in Kashmir.

www.cnbc.com

“Blood and water can’t flow together,” India’s Prime Minister says

 

[Titanium100]

Countries like Pakistan, Egypt, Iraq, Bangladesh and Vietnam don't control their own water. They're controlled by adversaries. That is a population risk. Iraq for example has it's rivers owned by Turkey and Syria.

They can't cut you off enough to make you thirsty but they can cut off enough to stop your crop growth. Lack food = riots with big population.

India is far luckier - they have the monsoons.

That is what wars are there for we are unbothered by that this will give us excuses to expand and there are many war hawkish this gives them the ammunition they need to expand into gangu besides nobody will never pull unless they were ready to fight.

Natural growth is key when a country is bound to go up in rank it increases this has been in line with all historical rises and falls of empires, civilizations and kingdoms it has been the single most consistant pattern in history..

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

View attachment 800874

Ah Pakistan is much safer then. Vietnam isn't in too much danger. Even though China controls the water China is civilized and would never turn off the water. At least, not permanently.

Egypt and Iraq are fucked.

 

[Titanium100]

A declining population may impact domestic consumption, but I also believe the industrial base should keep rolling like you said, because of automation. In fact record numbers of robots are being added every year. Say in 2020 China Mainland alone accounted for 44% of world's total installations, even more than the next four industrial powers combined (Japan, US, South Korea & Germany totaled 28%). These hard facts are seldom reported by western media for obvious reasons, as if China has not already risen in technology & industrial competitiveness, instead they pretend to ask sneaky question on false premise like whether China "can rise" or not, they are good at that.

View attachment 800764

This trend is expected to continue until density of robots reaches industrial level of SG/SK sometime around 2030. With both the agricultural and industrial sectors increasingly intelligent & automated, more population will be engaged in services sector, R&D.

View attachment 800765

It is not only the giant industrial monster that needs feeding also the population pyramid index meaning there will be huge loss of tax payers overnight because of exiting population due to age being larger then the younger population due to the 1 child policy but nothing to be worried about this impact will only last for a short window of 15 years max and China has the resources to aritifically fill the gap for these 15 years span and then China's population pyramid index will go into normal mode.. It is a short window and something China has the resources to fix..

 

[Communism]

It is not only the giant industrial monster that needs feeding also the population pyramid index meaning there will be huge loss of tax payers overnight because of exiting population due to age being larger then the younger population due to the 1 child policy but nothing to be worried about this impact will only last for a short window of 15-20 years max and China has the resources to aritifically fill the gap for these 15-20 years span and then China's population pyramid index will go into normal mode.. It is a short window and something China has the resources to fix..

Poor people don't generally pay much taxes in most parts of the world anyways, so that doesn't matter as much as people make it out to be.

 

[Titanium100]

Poor people don't generally pay much taxes in most parts of the world anyways, so that doesn't matter as much as people make it out to be.

It is not that major issue because China stopped the 1 child policy but the 2 child policy has also got to be abolished let the Chinese families freely give birth. the rebound will be limited to 15 years that is a short window. It won't even be felt. All the kids that was born post-2015 meaning post 1-child policy will be the once feeding the industrial monster that is china and the population pyramid index in 2035-2040 and all the way to 2075 when they enter retirement.. Hence the kids from 2015-2030 are crucial.. The dip will occur in 2035 because more will exit but the complete rebound and normalisation occurs in 2050 the Population pyramid will be intact and solid

 

[Communism]

It is not that major issue because China stopped the 1 child policy but the 2 child policy has also got to be abolished let the Chinese families freely give birth. the rebound will be limited to 15 years that is a short window. It won't even be felt. All the kids that was born post-2015 meaning post 1-child policy will be the once feeding the industrial monster that is china and the population pyramid index in 2035-2040 and all the way to 2075 when they enter retirement.. Hence the kids from 2015-2030 are crucial.. The dip will occur in 2035 because more will exit but the complete rebound and normalisation occurs in 2050 the Population pyramid will be intact and solid

That's based on the assumption that young people produce the same amount of wealth and/or taxes as older people.

That's almost never true.

Almost all wealth and/or taxes is produced by older people, so the whole debate about "less young people to support the old" is simply a canard most of the time.