China's Falling Birth Rate: Can It Sustain The Rise To Superpower?

[Titanium100]

I'm not that optimistic. If we want to repair the population pyramid, we must first restore fertility. But we still can't.

Some life hacks can be used here like encouraging them to give birth and paying them to give birth this will motivate alot of youth to start producing

 

[MH.Yang]

Some life hacks can be used here like encouraging them to give birth and paying them to give birth this will motivate alot of youth to start producing

China's population problem is not so easy to solve.
However, it doesn't matter if it can't be solved.
In the grand history of human civilization, there is no country that is always strong. The USA is no exception, and China is no exception.
Before the outbreak of China's population problem, China had enough time to destroy USA hegemony. Of course, after that, the population problem is likely to make China decline.
However, China is only a part of the human world. Any river will enter the embrace of the ocean, and the Chinese people will integrate into a family with the people of other countries.
Even if we decline, there will be better and stronger countries to lead mankind to a better future.

 

[Shotgunner51]

State level policy has been adopted to increase birth rate. I think it's a kind of late, but it's managable.

Ideal population in China should be around 500 millions - 1 billion. 1.4 billion is too much.

Highly developed society with 500 millions is strong enough, think about it. Singapore only 5 millions.

Population pyramid is an big issue, but China is not US. China is more like Japan. The state will handle it in a very different way than western countries on population decline. China will not allow huge immigration.

Agricultural industry need much fewer labors than 20 years ago. 2 millions farmers feed 300 million Americans. China will gradually be the same.

Trucks, buses, automobiles will be automated. Most banking has been handled by cellphone apps. China is a cashless society now. Most low-end manufacturing jobs will move to ASEAN, and India, Bangladesh, Africa.

I think 1 billion for 2060 is ok as long as they are well-educated, disciplined, innovative and cultivated.

Good summary.

If you check this database with 227 entries, the 5 with lowest TFR are:

Isn't the pattern obvious? It's not a surprise Mainland China will end up with low TFR today, it's inevitable. I also believe 1 billion or less for 2060 is OK as long as the population is well-educated, socially disciplined, innovative and cultivated. Machines/robots/AI will help harvesting crops, manufacturing TVs, tendering coffees or national defence, shortage of human labour is no longer an economic constraint.

 

[TNT]

that is the whole point Pakistan wants bigger population.. You don't repress the birth-rate it will cause negative effects if it is 5.4 and natural you simple let it flow because what is happening there is natural growth

I guess Pakistani situation is very different. China needs population to sustain its huge industry and huge market value. What do we have to sustain? We cant even feed, cloth and educate our population. Nothing bad will happen even if by a miracle our population becomes half. We are severely over populated, our infrastructure cant handle such a population. Our hospitals are over crowded, our schools are over crowded, judiciary is over crowded, roads are over crowded. We dont have any industry to sustain and neither we are a market that others sought. That is why for us, decrease in population only brings advantages.

 

[nahtanbob]

That one child policy will come back and bite China when it is most needed. China will have to import alot of people to off-set these starting from mid 2035 to early 2040s China will have to import atleast 50m-100m young people they could example start with the han-chinese disapora and then they will have to import a bunch of vietnamese labor workers.

But it is certainly something China can fix.. It will eventually kick in around mid 2035 to 2040s China has plenty of time to prepare for alternatives to fill up the industrial monster so that it keeps running as usual.. China has the resources to undo this.. All they need is to fix it artificially between 2035-2050 and beyond the 2050s the industry monster will keep rolling as usual

robots and AI are eliminating human workers

 

[Battlion25]

I guess Pakistani situation is very different. China needs population to sustain its huge industry and huge market value. What do we have to sustain? We cant even feed, cloth and educate our population. Nothing bad will happen even if by a miracle our population becomes half. We are severely over populated, our infrastructure cant handle such a population. Our hospitals are over crowded, our schools are over crowded, judiciary is over crowded, roads are over crowded. We dont have any industry to sustain and neither we are a market that others sought. That is why for us, decrease in population only brings advantages.

Not really.. Explaining is gonna take hours but I will do it another day insha-allah

 

[waz]

Doesn't the Indus originate in IOK? And as much as I wish China controlled the Ganges and Brahmaputra for reals, most of their water is from rainfall and not glacier fed...

No it doesn't, it originates in China, I'm surprised you don't know that.
No on the rainfall part as well, the rivers Sultej, Brahmaputra, Ganges are rivers with headwaters that rely on being fed by glacial melt high in the Himalayas, the Ganges during the dry season more so.
I wrote up a massive thread on this on PDF linking numerous scientific research papers, and asked experts to settle this debate once and for all.
Look at posts 37 and 42 by myself;

WB says cannot mediate in Pakistan-India water dispute

China already threatened India, and India backed off so that proves that China has some influence in this regards. That is independent of Indian shoddy assurances. When did China threaten India with water war?

defence.pk

 

[Mista]

State level policy has been adopted to increase birth rate. I think it's a kind of late, but it's managable.

Ideal population in China should be around 500 millions - 1 billion. 1.4 billion is too much.

Highly developed society with 500 millions is strong enough, think about it. Singapore only 5 millions.

Population pyramid is an big issue, but China is not US. China is more like Japan. The state will handle it in a very different way than western countries on population decline. China will not allow huge immigration.

Agricultural industry need much fewer labors than 20 years ago. 2 millions farmers feed 300 million Americans. China will gradually be the same.

Trucks, buses, automobiles will be automated. Most banking has been handled by cellphone apps. China is a cashless society now. Most low-end manufacturing jobs will move to ASEAN, and India, Bangladesh, Africa.

I think 1 billion for 2060 is ok as long as they are well-educated, disciplined, innovative and cultivated.

It's not really about the absolute size, but the demographic structure and a trend which is almost irreversible. If you have 40% elderly like Japan today out of 1bil people, that's around 400mil elderly.

And the world is not going to suddenly stop spinning in 2060. Population aging and shrinking will continue beyond 2060. Currently Japan already has an age-dependency ratio of almost 50%, and is projected to have 1.4 working adults to support 1 elderly.

 

[retaxis]

rich chinese find prettiest vietnamese/thai wives and bring them into china. problem solved!

 

[casual]

It's not really about the absolute size, but the demographic structure and a trend which is almost irreversible. If you have 40% elderly like Japan today out of 1bil people, that's around 400mil elderly.

And the world is not going to suddenly stop spinning in 2060. Population aging and shrinking will continue beyond 2060. Currently Japan already has an age-dependency ratio of almost 50%, and is projected to have 1.4 working adults to support 1 elderly.

View attachment 800923

View attachment 800922

The elderly in East Asian countries facing demographic decline have the world's highest savings rates. They aren't exactly "dependent" on the younger generation.

 

[nang2]

why are you asking me? aren't you from china?

Maybe your experience is different from mine. In my memory, such a class is not mandatory but you make it sound like it is. That is why I asked you.

Not mandatory.
But if all your classmates go to cram school, you have no other choice, unless you want to be the worst one among them.

That is true only when schools are using exams that give some advantages to those who take the tutoring classes. In an another word, schools make it mandatory, though they don't admit it.

 

[mike2000 is back]

CPC already asked all the members need to get married and have 3 children.

Lmao. No way that will work

 

[mike2000 is back]

Does not matter about the two child policy or three child policy, the main issue is that young couples do not want to have more children due to their financial commitment.

Unlike the West and most of the rest of the world, older people in China are generally far more richer than young couples in their twenties and thirties, due to their saving habits. It is not uncommon that people saved 30% of their income for old age expenses.

Many young couples need financial assitence from their parents to buy houses and to get marry. It is more like the old people are financing the young people instead of the other way around.

The problem is that the CCP let this policy go on for far too long(only God knows how many tens or hundreds of millions of babies were forcefully aborted by them and the countless women who were sterilised). I understand that they didn't want to revoke such a law early on, since it also affects the party image , as people might have questioned their wisdom in implementing such a draconian (almost genocidal) policy on the Chinese people for so long and then changing it overnight .
However this is still something that should have been done decades ago. Now it seems to be too late to be honest . Young Chinese(especially females)are increasingly wealthy, educated , independent and have a big work schedule. There is absolutely no incentive for this young females to have babies or even one for that matter. Most are postponing marriage and having kids for longer and longer and some don't even see it as a priority at all. That's also what comes along with modernity and wealth to be honest . Unfortunately for China not only have they been growing wealthy but the government was discouraging having more kids and enforcing it ruthlessly for so many years that it only made this issue even worse and accelerated the time by which the country should have started witnessing a decline in birth rates. A country that is still.a developing country as a whole shouldn't be having such an issue at this stage. So there is a real risk the country might grow old before it grows rich. The CCP is to blame for this. They acted too little too late. To make things worse. They still have in place a 3 hild policy. So if you want to have more than 3 children, there are still rules that prevents or penalises you from doing so. This is in a country already suffering from an irreversible aging population. I don't know who comes up with this CCP child policies.

 

[Indos]

This is liberal secular ideas from the West who said supporting our old parents is something bad. Thus dependency ratio is created with negative sentiment arise if old people are still exist and become the burdent for younger generation. For Muslim it is the bless if we can still have our parent in our side. Economically, older generation has so few consumption, what they are consuming is just a fraction of young couple do.

Being good to parents are among the value of Indonesian just like this Indonesian song stated.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

Are those for-profit tutoring classes mandatory?

No, but coercion is not monopolized by the government. That's a lesson people like you really need to learn. Markets can be coercive and destructive and government intervention is required to stop it.

However this is still something that should have been done decades ago. Now it seems to be too late to be honest . Young Chinese(especially females)are increasingly wealthy, educated , independent and have a big work schedule. There is absolutely no incentive for this young females to have babies or even one for that matter.

Who said China's birth rate will remain falling indefinitely? It can be pushed back to replacement if the government adopts the right set of policies, which it has started to do. It's not going to be an overnight thing, but neither was the 1CP. Times have changed, which means the methods used must change as well.

For instance, the coercion and hamfisted propaganda of the 1CP will no longer work in reverse, but tools of psychological manipulation have improved dramatically. The Chinese government can sell pregnancy to Chinese women like Madison Ave sold cigarettes to American women. A lot of people talk about economic incentives to have more children, but I believe that's secondary. The primary effort should be to change the culture, which is very feasible in China given the government's monopoly on traditional and new media.