I understand your POV but you need to considered that most countries in the Asia follow the export based model while in the West it is more of consumption based-Aggregate demand (Keynes, Adam Smith, Hayek,...). This mean that devaluate currencies to become more competitve and offer incentive to export firms as well as foreign firm set up production in the countries, this policy can hurt fixed income people, retire people, ........and old people but given that demographic is young, so there is not so much harm, but this can be issued in future when aging and Moreover, devaluation will only encourage mass capital flight out of country if lack of confident. And China also got quite large amount of investment and Tech transfer from more developed countries in the West couple with Japan, Korea,... few decades ago.
After World War II, Japan developed rapidly by prioritizing export manufacturing, making products for consumers in advanced economies faster, more cheaply and more reliably, just like what China is doing now. Government policies encouraged a high savings rate and channeled that capital to exporters. In a phenomenon known as the “flying geese,” South Korea, Taiwan and Malaysia prospered in Japan’s slipstream by adopting similar policies and joining the supply chains pioneered by Japanese companies. And now Asia is accounted nearly half or more in global manufacturing (also manufacturing trade) compare to about 15% in late 1970's and ofc the one with biggest share is China
But growth was easier to attain in the latter part of the last century. In the late 1950's to 1990's, the combined population of exporting powerhouses Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia is about 200 million. The population of consumer markets in North America and Europe numbered more than 600 million. This equation is now reversed. There are one billion consumers in advanced economies compared to more than two and half billion people living in the developing countries throughout Asia. What worked so well in the past will no longer be as effective for Future!
Global trade also seems to be stalled after runaway growth over the previous two decades. Merchandise exports as a percentage of global GDP peaked at 27% in 2008, up from 15% in the early 1990s. That figure has now fallen to 22%. This should not be a surprise as consumption growth in the U.S. and Eurozone is increasing at an anemic 2-3% in real terms, half the historic average since 1950.
Now, I think ofc As you said the FTA with EU and TPP can bring harm but it benefit outnumbered the down side of it, as it will give Vietnam an relative edge compare to other competitors and also more investment from SMEs or big firms from the West, that is a huge bonus given current economic condition in VN now, it can help VN to diversified and have tech transfer as well as better skilled workforce as you can see after signing up FTA with EU investment from EU boost up to 2nd place particularly huge increase in UK, Germany and France. If you look at other countries in SEA, majority ( or more than 60-70%) investment are coming from East Asia, place all eggs in one basket is never good. But that advantage can be sweep away in coming decade or so. VN should start thinking about motivating the domestic market in addition to export.
And i think our govt should also stop being over bias to SOEs, it is ridiculous. And should start thinking of policy supporting domestic private firms. The consequence of too much government intervention that lead to crowding out effect in the economy. Also need more regulation for setting up bank. Govt can look up to France for some hint and model, they are quite leftist compare to other EU countries so can perfectly fit into our party favourite slogan: Market economy with socialist ideology. They also must think of secure property and intellectual property rights, and the creative destruction of failing state-owned firms to encourage innovation and quality economic growth.
About textile things, in coming decade or two i don't think VN will benefit much from that sector as it will gradually shift away to Laos Cambodia and Myanmar,....With the improvement of internet, i think should focus also on agriculture as farmers with Internet will know market price and taking process to completed products better, so can improve standard of living. About the manufacturing , u know that our govt have policy doing many favours for foreign companies right? The componet supply for foreign firm in VN is 40% i think? With majority from domestic private firms while the loan they receive just 1/4 of what SOEs receive.
Thank God, Dung is out this year and probably Trong few year later too, their "Nắm đấm thép" creating a big mess in VN.
I think you should read this book, too. Pretty decent and nice:
http://tntesaget.do.am/_ld/1/106_Skous-The_big_3.pdf
And i think party should allow self-nominate candidate, i heard they got big discussion about it
@Carlosa ,
@William Hung,
@Viet,
@AViet,
@Cao Đài
