China to Trounce U.S. in Next Decade

[wealdcn017]

in chinese 5000 years history, there is not any religious war. peacful coexistence of buddhism, taoism, confucianism, islam and god.
our ships arrived africa 100 years ahead of europ. but we only trade with them and take gifts to them.
100 years later, when the europ are defeated by islam, they have to begin to sail with compass from china, become pirate and rob others with fire learned from china. the erop began renaissence with paper learned from china. since then, the western become stronger and stonger.
at the same time, china was so pround and closed his door, refused exchanging information with savage. 300 years later, by 1840, china was out and defeated by western.

so, china are the strongest country in the world fo thousands of years, but we did not kill others, only trade with them. in future, when china get back to his position, we are peacful too, do not worry about us.

 

[fd24]

Fact is that China is 6 trillion dollar economy and US is 14 trillion..These are not facts? Did I miss read the facts?

Item China USA
GDP Size $5.745 Trillion $14.6 Trillion
Labor Force 780 Million 154.9 million
Unemployment Rate 4.30% 9.70%
Population below Povery Rate 2.80% 12.0%
Budget-Revenue $1.149 Trillion $2.02 Trillion
Budget-Expenditures $1.27 Trillion $3.397 Trillion
Public Debt 17.5% of GDP 58.9% of GDP
Oil Consumption 8.2 million bbl/day 18.69 million bbl/day
Current Account Balance $272.5 billion $ -561.0 billion
Debt - External $406.6 billion $13.98 Trillion
FDI Abroad $278.9 billion $3.507 Trillion

Note: Some of the data shown may not be the latest. I have used them exactly as it is in the CIA site.
Source: The World Factbook, CIA

I think the above stats are self explanatory. I think the inevitable isnt inevitable anymore.....facts are facts and btw i hope you dont misread this as well.

 

[tjpf]

The Western financial crisis heralded a significant shift in the balance of power between the United States and China. Most starkly, it brought forward the date when the Chinese economy will overtake the US economy in size from 2027 (the Goldman Sachs projection in 2005) to 2020. The reason is simple: while the US economy is around the same size as it was in 2008, with the prospect of perhaps a decade of very weak growth ahead, the Chinese economy has continued to grow at around 9 percent and future economic growth is likely to be in the region of 8 percent. While 2027 sounded sufficiently far in the future to sound speculative, 2020, in contrast, is less than a decade away and feels much more like an extension of the present. The rise of China and the decline of the United States is becoming more tangible by the year.

Significant landmarks are happening thick and fast: in 2010, China overtook Germany to become the world’s largest exporter; in the same year it overtook Japan to become the world’s second-largest economy; at the beginning of 2011, it overtook the United States to become the world’s largest manufacturing nation, a position the United States had held for 110 years; in 2020, if not earlier, it will overtake the United States to become the world’s largest economy; and perhaps not too long afterwards, when the renminbi is finally made convertible, the latter will replace the dollar as the world’s leading reserve currency. With each landmark we move a little further away from a world shaped by the United States and toward one shaped by China.

There has been a strong tendency in the West to see this world in narrowly economic terms, with China assuming similar characteristics as the United States during the process of its rise and the global furniture that we are familiar with remaining little changed. This is to greatly underestimate the nature and import of China’s rise. It will not even be true economically. When China overtakes the United States, it will still be both a developed and a developing economy; it will continue to be a huge trading nation, on a far greater scale than the United States; and it will be far more orientated towards the developing world, to which it presently sends over half its exports, than Washington has been.

Nor will the international financial system remain more or less unchanged. The only way that the IMF and the World Bank will survive China’s rise to economic ascendancy is if they come to reflect the new configuration of global economic power: in other words, if, in time, China comes to call the shots in the IMF. But even in this eventuality, it is entirely possible that the IMF will be effectively replaced by a different kind of body, one more in line with Chinese interests and aspirations, along with those of other developing countries like India. In this context, it should be noted that already, in 2009-10, the China Development Bank and the China Exim Bank between them lent more to the developing world than the World Bank, which suggests that the latter could, within a decade or so, become increasingly marginalized. Then factor in the renminbi as the dominant world currency, with Shanghai replacing New York as the global financial centre, and we are clearly looking at a very different world economic order.

Furthermore, the accompanying geopolitical and cultural changes are likely to be even more profound. China may have called itself a nation-state for the last century, but it remains primarily a civilization-state, as it has been for more than two millennia. Whereas the Western sense of identity is overwhelmingly shaped by their history as nation-states, the Chinese sense of identity is rooted in and shaped by their civilizational past. It is impossible to comprehend the very distinctive nature of the Chinese state, and the roots of its legitimacy, or similarly distinctive Chinese attitudes towards race, otherwise. Likewise, to make sense of China’s rapidly changing relationship with East Asia, it is necessary to take account of the tributary system which was the organizing basis of China’s relations with its neighbors for thousands of years until around a century ago. Indeed, China’s present claim on the Spratly and Paracel Islands in the South China Sea, which is based on inter-temporal law rather than territorial water law, derives directly from its history as a civilization-state. Those who believe that China’s rise to global hegemony will in practice change little can only hold to this view by ignoring China’s quite different history to that of the West.

Will this Chinese world be better or worse than the Western-made world we are familiar with? In one very important sense it will be better: while the West has never represented much more than a sliver of humanity, China and India between them constitute 38 percent of the world’s population. Their rise represents a huge rough and ready democratization of the world. Nor should we fear this world because it will be so unfamiliar to us. We need to understand and embrace it: the sooner the better, because, willy-nilly, we have no choice. In time it will come to pass.

Commentary: China to Trounce U.S. in Next Decade | The National Interest

and the beat goes on dadadum dadadum

 

[Masterchief]

China has that potential, but economies don't run on predictions, the people who say 'hey you know india would overtake USA by 2030,and china would overtake USA by 2020' are hilarious, they spend much time thinking about future, than working in present.THE WORLD IS AN OCEAN IN WHICH US IS A CRUISE SHIP AND INDIA AND CHINA ARE JUST BOATS, THE CHINESE ONE BEING MORE STURDY THAN THE INDIAN ONE AND STILL NOTHING COMPARED TO THE CRUISE SHIP.

 

[jdme]

Item China USA
GDP Size $5.745 Trillion $14.6 Trillion
Labor Force 780 Million 154.9 million
Unemployment Rate 4.30% 9.70%
Population below Povery Rate 2.80% 12.0%
Budget-Revenue $1.149 Trillion $2.02 Trillion
Budget-Expenditures $1.27 Trillion $3.397 Trillion
Public Debt 17.5% of GDP 58.9% of GDP
Oil Consumption 8.2 million bbl/day 18.69 million bbl/day
Current Account Balance $272.5 billion $ -561.0 billion
Debt - External $406.6 billion $13.98 Trillion
FDI Abroad $278.9 billion $3.507 Trillion

Note: Some of the data shown may not be the latest. I have used them exactly as it is in the CIA site.
Source: The World Factbook, CIA

I think the above stats are self explanatory. I think the inevitable isnt inevitable anymore.....facts are facts and btw i hope you dont misread this as well.

This only proves that China is not in economic doldrums like US. It doesn't prove the original theory. There are no "guarantees" in real world. China is already slowing down. Higher inflation, excessive amount of bad loans, empty cities...With rising wages, it would be impossible to "compete" with low cost countries and China CANNOT compete with US/German/Japan in quality..That's why they call it "projections".

You do know that each nation actually has their own poverty line? Whats poor in US is lower middle class in India. Do you know that US still gets the highest foreign investment in world?

 

[jdme]

China has that potential, but economies don't run on predictions, the people who say 'hey you know india would overtake USA by 2030,and china would overtake USA by 2020' are hilarious, they spend much time thinking about future, than working in present

Indeed. None of this takes into account the rising oil price, shortage of water, massive energy crisis, rising PCI of Chinese which will lower it's growth,....Projections are based on assumption that nothing will change..But they do...Projections are lame. Twice US has beaten "projections"..

 

[jdme]

china is the best role model for Pakistan and india

Why aren't you following your big brother than? Lets not worry about India, okay!

---------- Post added at 07:46 AM ---------- Previous post was at 07:45 AM ----------

Probably, if a Confederate American actually existed.

He is a certified ..you know. He is China's version of a redneck Texan...

 

[rcrmj]

never red such things from chinese media`we are not good at predictions i guess

anyway always good to know where we are behind

 

[kawaraj]

feel the flame up hot....

I wonder why Indians always want to drag China to its catagory, when China is catching up with the US. You guys are in denial that your are still a backward nation, with a GDP ranking behind the US, China, Japan, Germany, UK, France, Italy, Russia, Brazil... China's UN Veto power, No. 2 in Science, No.1 in manufacturing, No.1 in export, Aid more to the world than world bank, ....

where's India's position?

you don't even have a position talking how the US and China competition. watch them play.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

On China's manufacturing

Manufacturers are looking beyond China because China is no longer ipso facto the cheapest place to manufacture.

China manufacturing prices are rising due to in large part to its rising labor costs. In an FT.com article by Josh Noble, entitled, "The end of cheap: China's tipping point," a number of economists theorize that China's demographics have changed such that we should continue to expect China's wages to rise and its manufacturing to decline. An FT Tilt (a new FT site focusing on emerging markets) article by Hannah Kuchler, entitled, "Coach the latest to cut China production," highlights a number of foriegn companies reducing their China manufacturing:

Foreign Manufacturing In China. Would The Last Company There Please Turn Out The Lights. : China Law Blog : China Law for Business

Why Factories Are Leaving China
A labor shortage is trimming margins for exporters, who are moving to Vietnam, India, and elsewhere

As costs climbed in Taiwan two decades ago, Ben Fan moved his lighting factory to take advantage of China's cheap labor. Now, with Chinese wages on the rise, he's moving again. "It's just like what happened in Taiwan," says Fan, chairman of Neo-Neon Holdings, which sells lamps and lighting fixtures to big retailers including Home Depot (HD), Target (TGT), and Wal-Mart (WMT). "Chinese don't want to work in factories anymore."

So Fan is expanding his factory in Vietnam, where wages are $100 a month, one-third what he pays in China. He plans to shift 85 percent of his production across the border, and by December he'll have 8,000 workers in Vietnam—up from 300 a year ago—and just 5,000 in China, down from 25,000 in 2008.

Over the past two years, millions of jobs have moved to China's interior or elsewhere in Asia as factory owners try to cut costs. In Guangdong, the mainland's top exporting province, wages have almost doubled in the past three years, and more than half the factories can't find enough workers. The number of migrants who traveled to coastal provinces for work fell by 9 percent last year, to 91 million. "This lack of labor will only get worse," says Willy Lin, chairman of the Textile Council of Hong Kong, a trade association.

Factory owners complain that the higher wages are devastating profits, especially as their customers continue to squeeze them for lower prices. "Wal-Mart won't raise what they pay us," says Poh-Heng Toh, general manager of teddy bear producer Lovely Creations. Another Wal-Mart supplier, jewelry maker Profit Grand, has cut its staff to 450 from 600 largely because it can't find workers at the rates it's willing to pay, says Chairman Hsu Chi Lin. Wages, Hsu says, have risen from 2 percent of total costs a decade ago to 12 percent today, while net margins have fallen from 15 percent to about 8 percent. Factory owners are also worried about a potential revaluation of China's currency. The yuan is up 21 percent vs. the dollar since 2005, and many economists expect it to rise an additional 5 percent this year.

While China's growth—11.9 percent in the first quarter—is a factor in the labor shortages, they likely won't disappear once the economy cools. The country's one-child policy means fewer people are joining the workforce. Tax breaks for farmers and subsidies for companies setting up in the interior have allowed more people to find work near home. And a growing service sector means greater opportunities lie beyond the factory gate. "The younger generation is trying to get work that is much easier—waiting tables in restaurants or working in supermarkets," says Charles Yang, general manager of Apache Footwear, which makes shoes for Adidas. .......

Shoemaker Apache has moved simpler work, such as stitching the upper portions of sneakers, from Guangdong to lower-wage factories in the interior. Apache is also expanding a plant in Chennai, India, that will produce at least half its shoes within five years. The company's Chinese workforce will soon drop below 10,000, from 18,000 two years ago, general manager Yang says. "We've been squeezing like hell to get more out of the system," he says.
Why Factories Are Leaving China - BusinessWeek

When Outsourcing Fails
One in Five German Firms Leaving China


China lost its status as the world's cheapest country for manufacturing some time ago. The momentum now seems to be shifting away from outsourcing to the Far East, with one in five Germany companies pulling production out of the country. Chinese workers, they say, are getting too expensive. .......
When Outsourcing Fails: One in Five German Firms Leaving China - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News - International

New Challenges for Foreign Producers: 'China's Manufacturing Competitiveness Is at Risk'

.........Clearly, China is losing its luster as a location for low-cost production, as rising costs, inflation and the steady appreciation of the renminbi (RMB) have increased factory operating expenses. Many labor-dependent companies are already leaving China for India and Vietnam, especially those from Taiwan and Hong Kong, and more are considering the move.

A new report called China Manufacturing Competitiveness 2007–2008 -- produced by the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) Shanghai and conducted by consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton -- surveyed 66 manufacturing companies, most of them foreign-owned, and found that almost one out of every five will move some of their manufacturing to other countries. The top destinations, in order, are India, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia and Brazil, and the reasons for leaving China were rising costs and an appreciating RMB. “The vast majority, 83%, don’t have any plans to leave China,” says Ron Haddock, greater China vice president for Booz Allen Hamilton, which conducted the study. “They still see advantages in China, but what’s disturbing here is that 17% actually do have concrete plans to move manufacturing capacity to other neighboring countries.” ........

New Challenges for Foreign Producers: 'China's Manufacturing Competitiveness Is at Risk' - Knowledge@Wharton

 

[kawaraj]

so what, china's still the world's largest manufacturer, which the US has dominated for 100 year till 2009, I guess China will maintain this No.1 for another 100 years till some other country (india?) take over.

China's manufacture moves up, shedding off low end product such as clothing, shoes to Vietname, India, Walmart already sell more Vietnam made shoes for the second years, more cloth are made in Mexico and India, Bangladesh.

China's massive market is already up so it will not rely on export. This huge market is fueled by its super efficient infrastructure, those super nova Highways, High speed trains, Hundreds of new airports, Fiber broadband networking, and the best Portable device Wifis ( Mobile Phone networks), Super machines, Mega Projects, etc., All these areas China is ahead of the US.

there is a Chinese economic news updates in China defense section, sticky threads, drop by sometime, all amazing news.

 

[wealdcn017]

in the following 5 years, the factories polluting envirenment will not be protected in china anymore. the manufacture is upgrading in china, and the worker's salary will be doubled times at least. so the factories doing shoes,toy etc, will leave china, and high science class products such as plane, cpu, engine, cars manufactured in china.
if we suceed, the chinese will be much richer.

 

[zoochee]

The next 5 years is critical. Don't pay attention to the naysayers. Focus on what we do best, and keep a low profile. If we succeed in this period again then there is nothing in the world can stop the revival of the Chinese civilization.

 

[Render.Insane]

in the following 5 years, the factories polluting envirenment will not be protected in china anymore. the manufacture is upgrading in china, and the worker's salary will be doubled times at least. so the factories doing shoes,toy etc, will leave china, and high science class products such as plane, cpu, engine, cars manufactured in china.
if we suceed, the chinese will be much richer.

For that to happen you need smart engineers! not smart labor workers! for that you need education! for that you need reform ! for that your need to be a democracy! for that China needs to changeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

 

[Render.Insane]

so what, china's still the world's largest manufacturer, which the US has dominated for 100 year till 2009, I guess China will maintain this No.1 for another 100 years till some other country (india?) take over.

China's manufacture moves up, shedding off low end product such as clothing, shoes to Vietname, India, Walmart already sell more Vietnam made shoes for the second years, more cloth are made in Mexico and India, Bangladesh.

China's massive market is already up so it will not rely on export. This huge market is fueled by its super efficient infrastructure, those super nova Highways, High speed trains, Hundreds of new airports, Fiber broadband networking, and the best Portable device Wifis ( Mobile Phone networks), Super machines, Mega Projects, etc., All these areas China is ahead of the US.

there is a Chinese economic news updates in China defense section, sticky threads, drop by sometime, all amazing news.

not hear about the hong kong riots, where a common man can't afford to get a decent home in China, called a property bubble.... Huge lump sum of gov money into to bulding but no money in the pockets of the ppl, means no sales, means no growth... last 10 years, China grew because of over construction and bulding town after town unocupied!