China-Taiwan reunification

[Martian2]

Below_freezing had some unpleasant encounters with some right wings on taiwan blogs before, I guess that's why he's a bit disgruntled and harsh towards taiwan.

I think the sentiment of mainlanders on taiwanese is quite consistent -- if you are pro-unification then you are always welcome, if you are pro-independence then you'd be treated like public enemy no.1

Below_freezing (and other hawks) will have to decide what is more important. Does he want reunification or is letting off steam from bad experiences against Taiwanese right-wingers more important?

The KMT is intelligently engaged in a stealthy approach towards reunification. If the KMT is permitted to continue unfolding its plan in the coming years then the economic, social, cultural exchanges, and other ties (i.e. tourism, investment, etc.) will become too intertwined to be realistically reversed.

The CPC was extremely generous in the ECFA terms because they're trying to help keep Ma and the KMT in power. This is a critical time because the Taiwanese public can go either way.

Taiwan has become an affluent country. Some Taiwanese believe that things are fine and the status quo should be maintained indefinitely. You're over there and we're over here. What is the problem?

The most radical are the independence-seeking DPP. They see this as a last chance in a bid for independence. They believe that American military power (e.g. F-22, B-2, aircraft carrier battle groups, nuclear submarines, etc.) is still sufficiently strong to deter China. This may not be true in twenty years. It is now or never.

The KMT has always believed in One China. I'm pretty sure that they're hoping to someday have the opportunity to compete as a political party in an unified China. Whether the CPC will ever let them is an open question.

Anyway, Taiwanese society is split into three camps. No one is sure which is the best course for Taiwan. Each path carries its own risks and problems. Taiwanese are cognizant that there are only 23 million on the island and 1.3 billion on the Mainland.

This is a delicate situation. Due to the complexity and numerous variables, Taiwanese can't make up their minds. It does not help that there are individuals that are "talking tough" on Taiwan. The 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis had shown that efforts to intimidate the Taiwanese electorate will only push voters into the status quo or independence camp. Coercion is not an effective strategy.

Taiwanese are very predictable. If you frighten them, they will send out an SOS and unleash the Taiwan lobby on Capitol Hill. The only realistic chance at reunification within the next twenty years is a mutually acceptable and negotiated agreement.

 

[Nomenclature]

This is getting complicated. Let me selectively address some of the details.

Firstly, the country of China is rich. They have a large annual trade surplus, $2.4 trillion dollars in forex, and interest income from the forex investments. If they wanted, the CPC could easily subsidize the farmers to compensate for any effects from the ECFA.

I don't think that Ma is serious in his demand that the CPC change its form of governance before reunification. It is merely political cover. Ma knows that this is a long-term project and he is working to pull Taiwan closer to China (e.g. ECFA).

You are the second person that is unhappy with the ECFA. I'm beginning to wonder at the level of support for the ECFA on the Mainland. Even more importantly, I wonder if the CPC can uphold its end of a bargain with Taiwan. In other words, what confidence do Taiwanese have that the CPC will be around long enough to honor its end of a 50-year agreement.

If the ECFA is apparently this unpopular, the terms of a China-Taiwan reunification agreement may spur a revolution on the Mainland. Anyway, that is just one more variable to throw into the mix. Taiwanese voters will eventually have to decide whether they believe that the CPC can hold off the Mainland populace and honor a 50-year agreement.

I'm not saying I or other people on the mainland are not happy with ECFA at the moment. I remember watching Lee Hsien Loong on Charlie Rose, Lee said it's important for China to think long term and try not to maximize its interests on every single issue, and I readily agree with him. ECFA is more favorable to Taiwan but if it could improve cross-relation we'll just bite the bullet. What I said is simply that this support may not last if a decade down the road we still see no concrete improvement in cross-strait relation.

As for a future Mainland-Taiwan agreement, I think first Taiwan will ask for a lot longer than 50 years. Second, it will not trigger a revolution on the mainland. Joining the WTO was an extremely controversial decision, a lot of people back in 2000 was calling Jiang Zemin a traitor and running dog for Corporate America for his WTO bid. But still, no revolt.

Whether China can uphold an agreement with Taiwan will largely depend on whether the agreement would be seen as fair by people on the mainland. I don't think China will ever renege a 'Hong Kong with heaps more benefits' style of deal. But a federation with rotating presidency? I'm not so sure.

What Lee said of China also applies to Taiwan in any future negotiation with the mainland, think not in what you can get now but in what may last long.

 

[topjumper]

This political predicament reminds me of an aged rumour: in the early 70s when when CKS and Deng Xiaoping were still alive, China needed a large development loan and was struggling to get international help, Taiwan was way more affluent then in comparison and Deng offered a deal to CKS that in exchange of the development loan from taiwan, CKS would get to govern Taiwan + Fujian province on the mainland, and have autonomy sort of like Hong Kong now. CSK was keen to take the offer but died before the deal could finalise, had it did the situation across the strait would have been way different! Deng had a talent for seeing long term opportunities, just a shame that it didn't work out.

 

[topjumper]

But saying that -- maybe a good way to get KMT to play ball and help it to establish a foothold back onto the mainland is to offer Fujian to KMT, sort of "limited power sharing" at least to start with, but I doubt the current CPC leaders have the guts to do something out of the ordinary any more.

 

[Martian2]

I'm not saying I or other people on the mainland are not happy with ECFA at the moment. I remember watching Lee Hsien Loong on Charlie Rose, Lee said it's important for China to think long term and try not to maximize its interests on every single issue, and I readily agree with him. ECFA is more favorable to Taiwan but if it could improve cross-relation we'll just bite the bullet. What I said is simply that this support may not last if a decade down the road we still see no concrete improvement in cross-strait relation.

As for a future Mainland-Taiwan agreement, I think first Taiwan will ask for a lot longer than 50 years. Second, it will not trigger a revolution on the mainland. Joining the WTO was an extremely controversial decision, a lot of people back in 2000 was calling Jiang Zemin a traitor and running dog for Corporate America for his WTO bid. But still, no revolt.

Whether China can uphold an agreement with Taiwan will largely depend on whether the agreement would be seen as fair by people on the mainland. I don't think China will ever renege a 'Hong Kong with heaps more benefits' style of deal. But a federation with rotating presidency? I'm not so sure.

What Lee said of China also applies to Taiwan in any future negotiation with the mainland, think not in what you can get now but in what may last long.

You make an important point. Taiwan has to be careful in seeking an overly-favorable agreement. Unequal treaties/agreements don't last in the long run.

 

[Martian2]

But saying that -- maybe a good way to get KMT to play ball and help it to establish a foothold back onto the mainland is to offer Fujian to KMT, sort of "limited power sharing" at least to start with, but I doubt the current CPC leaders have the guts to do something out of the ordinary any more.

I don't think that's a good idea. The CPC has a superior track record in governing large populations. The KMT has only proven that it can effectively and efficiently govern 23 million people.

Anyway, Deng is gone. Only Deng (or Mao) had that kind of broad power. If someone on the politburo tried to suggest a radical experiment, the CPC would remove him for being mentally unstable.

 

[yangtomous]

1981年9月30日，全国人大常务委员会委员长叶剑英代表中国共产党、人大常委会、国务院，进一步阐明关于台湾回归祖国，实现和平统一的9条方针政策。

其要点是：（1）建议举行中国共产党和中国国民党两党对等谈判，实行第三次合作，共同完成祖国统一大业。（2）建议双方共同为通邮、通商、通航、探亲、旅游以及开展学术、文化、体育交流提供方便，达成有关协议。（3）国家实现统一后，台湾可作为特别行政区，享有高度的自治权，并可保留军队。中央政府不干预台湾地方事务。（4）台湾现行社会、经济制度不变，生活方式不变，同外国的经济、文化关系不变。（5）台湾当局和各界代表人士，可担任全国性政治机构的领导职务，参与国家管理。（6）台湾地方财政遇有困难时，可由中央政府酌情补助。（7）台湾各族人民、各界人士愿回祖国大陆定居者，保证妥善安排，不受歧视，来去自由。（8）欢迎台湾工商界人士回祖国大陆投资，保证其合法权益和利润。（9）热诚欢迎台湾各族人民、各界人士、民众团体提供建议、共商国事。

I hope this may do some helps,the CPC attitude is clear from it .

 

[Martian2]

1981年9月30日，全国人大常务委员会委员长叶剑英代表中国共产党、人大常委会、国务院，进一步阐明关于台湾回归祖国，实现和平统一的9条方针政策。

其要点是：（1）建议举行中国共产党和中国国民党两党对等谈判，实行第三次合作，共同完成祖国统一大业。（2）建议双方共同为通邮、通商、通航、探亲、旅游以及开展学术、文化、体育交流提供方便，达成有关协议。（3）国家实现统一后，台湾可作为特别行政区，享有高度的自治权，并可保留军队。中央政府不干预台湾地方事务。（4）台湾现行社会、经济制度不变，生活方式不变，同外国的经济、文化关系不变。（5）台湾当局和各界代表人士，可担任全国性政治机构的领导职务，参与国家管理。（6）台湾地方财政遇有困难时，可由中央政府酌情补助。（7）台湾各族人民、各界人士愿回祖国大陆定居者，保证妥善安排，不受歧视，来去自由。（8）欢迎台湾工商界人士回祖国大陆投资，保证其合法权益和利润。（9）热诚欢迎台湾各族人民、各界人士、民众团体提供建议、共商国事。

I hope this may do some helps,the CPC attitude is clear from it .

I recognize many of the words, but I've lost my ability to read Mandarin. This is embarrassing. On the other hand, I'm an ESL (i.e. English as a Second Language) student that is comfortable with English. Go figure.

 

[topjumper]

lol... apart from (5) the taiwanese pretty much have all the mentioned benefits already, which does make me wonder why wouldn't they want to keep the status quo for as long as possible? ;-)

 

[topjumper]

I don't think that's a good idea. The CPC has a superior track record in governing large populations. The KMT has only proven that it can effectively and efficiently govern 23 million people.

Anyway, Deng is gone. Only Deng (or Mao) had that kind of broad power. If someone on the politburo tried to suggest a radical experiment, the CPC would remove him for being mentally unstable.

lol... agreed, the timing is lost in history now.

 

[yangtomous]

I can't translate it exactly .is it someone can do it?
something like that.
Suggestions: (1) the Chinese communist party and the kuomintang (KMT) held talks, a bipartisan equivalence third cooperation, common reunification. (2) advice for links, mutual trade, navigation, visiting, tourism and academic, culture, sports communication convenience, achieve agreements. (3)after countries reunification, Taiwan can be used as a special administrative region, enjoy high autonomy, and keep troops. The central government intervention in Taiwan's local affairs. (4) Taiwan current social and economic system, its way of life ,the economicwith the foreign and cultural relations remain unchanged. (5) the Taiwan authorities and all generations can watch as a national political institutions, can participate in the country's leadership positions. (6) if Taiwan's in local financial difficulties, the central government discretionary allowance. (7) the Taiwan people of all nationalities, walks back motherland mainland settlers depend on your willing, ensure appropriate arrangements, and freedom for you wish ,non discrimination. (8) Taiwan welcome to motherland mainland business investment, profits and guarantee the lawful rights and interests. (9) warmly welcome all circles with the people of all ethnic groups and public organizations in Taiwan provide advice and discuss state affairs.

 

[Martian2]

I can't translate it exactly .is it someone can do it?
something like that.
Suggestions: (1) the Chinese communist party and the kuomintang (KMT) held talks, a bipartisan equivalence third cooperation, common reunification. (2) advice for links, mutual trade, navigation, visiting, tourism and academic, culture, sports communication convenience, achieve agreements. (3)after countries reunification, Taiwan can be used as a special administrative region, enjoy high autonomy, and keep troops. The central government intervention in Taiwan's local affairs. (4) Taiwan current social and economic system, its way of life ,the economicwith the foreign and cultural relations remain unchanged. (5) the Taiwan authorities and all generations can watch as a national political institutions, can participate in the country's leadership positions. (6) if Taiwan's in local financial difficulties, the central government discretionary allowance. (7) the Taiwan people of all nationalities, walks back motherland mainland settlers depend on your willing, ensure appropriate arrangements, and freedom for you wish ,non discrimination. (8) Taiwan welcome to motherland mainland business investment, profits and guarantee the lawful rights and interests. (9) warmly welcome all circles with the people of all ethnic groups and public organizations in Taiwan provide advice and discuss state affairs.

Topjumper is right. The CPC will have to update the 1981 draft for reunification.

The most important part is Taiwan relinquishes control and exchanges it for item #5: "participation in the country's leadership positions." What does that mean? Can the KMT campaign for the presidency?

Regarding item #4, how long does Taiwan get to keep its way of life?

The CPC needs to use some imagination and draw up a list of inducements. The old 1981 proposal will not set a fire under the Taiwanese electorate to clamor for reunification.

I can see that reunification is a long and messy business. Someone find a copy of the German reunification blueprint.

By the way, Yangtomous, thank you for translating. I can understand it just fine.

 

[Martian2]

I will attempt to make you guys laugh. From a different forum, my response to a comment:

I had predicted that when the mainland is much wealthier and correspondingly the USA is poorer, then unification will will be natural and automatic. Yes, maybe not in our lifetime, or maybe s.....

关 红 星

"You are very perceptive. As the relative power balance shifts between China and the United States, there will come a critical point when the United States can no longer maintain Taiwan's de facto independence.

However, as you said, that day is in the distant future. I hope to live long enough to see that day. I am fond of history and it is bad feng shui to miss an event that momentous.

Quite frankly, I refuse to die until I witness the reunification.

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2059:

Doctor: Martian, why aren't you dead? You are half-decomposed!

Me: Have China and Taiwan reunified yet?

Doctor: I'm afraid not yet.

Me: Today is not a good day to die. I will see you tomorrow."

 

[topjumper]

Martian, we all wait for that day, put all politics aside it's people like you that make us feel there's plenty of hope.

 

[中国万岁-ProsperThroughCo-]

The day China and Taiwan reunite, I will shed a tear of joy


中國萬歲！