China-Taiwan reunification

[Martian2]

Why is China giving Taiwan some space - By Nicholas Consonery | The Call

"Why is China giving Taiwan some space?
Posted By Ian Bremmer Thursday, August 12, 2010 - 11:24 AM

By Nicholas Consonery

Last week, in a major policy shift, Chinese officials gave Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou and his ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party a big victory by signaling that China will not block Taiwan's trade negotiations with Singapore. In the past, Beijing has used heavy diplomatic pressure to block all but five of the island's potential bilateral trade agreements as part of a long-term campaign to limit Taiwan's global recognition.

What's more, the Ma administration appears convinced that Beijing will allow them to pursue trade agreements with other Southeast Asian governments in the months and years ahead. Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines are the likeliest partners. Officials in Taipei also announced last week that they're pursuing an investment agreement with Tokyo that they hope will produce a trade agreement down the road. A higher level of economic integration with the broader Asian economy will encourage domestic restructuring in Taiwan and will boost the island's exports -- and therefore its economic strength. And all with Beijing's blessing.

What's going on here?

The Chinese government is looking for ways to bolster support within Taiwan for Ma and the KMT -- and, by extension, for the current direction of cross -- Strait relations. Ma's government has moved Taiwan toward ever-closer economic integration with the mainland and is probing the political implications of this integration. But Beijing is aware that skepticism of the mainland's intentions remains strong in Taiwan, and that Ma must avoid being cast as overly solicitous of Beijing.

That said, a major driver of Beijing's approach is a trend I laid out on this blog last year: Beijing is seeking to avoid steps that create opportunities for Taiwan's major opposition party -- the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) -- and is working hard to avoid any risk of a DPP resurgence. The Chinese leadership does not want to revisit the lows reached during the presidency of former DPP head Chen Shui-bian in Taiwan.

Beijing is playing this game deftly. For the past year, Ma has promised Taiwanese voters that he would boost Taiwan's international profile by signing the controversial Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with China, a deal he said would open the door to trade agreements with other countries. If Beijing had pressured Singapore to back away from these negotiations with Taiwan after ECFA, it would not only have raised Taiwanese ire toward Beijing -- it would have inflicted serious harm on Ma's domestic credibility and strengthened DPP arguments that Taiwan should simply go it alone.

Beijing has made clear that any potential trade agreement must acknowledge the "One China" policy, a caveat that suggests the agreements will be pitched as economic cooperation pacts rather than formal free trade agreements between countries. Beijing will also insist that the agreement refer to Taiwan as something other than Taiwan. Taiwanese officials have already acknowledged this necessity. The joint statement from Taiwan and Singapore announcing the deal referred to Taiwan as the "Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu," the title with which Taiwan was recognized by the World Trade Organization and the GATT.

For their part, DPP officials are arguing that Ma's willingness to compromise on the names undermines Taiwanese sovereignty.

A portion of the Taiwanese electorate will have their chance to decide who's right during five upcoming mayoral elections on November 27. The outcomes will be cast as an important indicator of popular support for Ma, foreshadowing his own reelection prospects in 2012 -- and the shape of things to come for cross -- Strait relations.

Nicholas Consonery is an Asia analyst with Eurasia Group."

 

[Brotherhood]

I guess I'm the lowest man on the totem pole. I only made it through first grade.

HeHe, you need some professional Chinese lessons from me?, anyway thanks for your special way of encouragement.

 

[Martian2]

Author: mr. bean
Date: 09-08-10 02:48

Beijing is doing so because it is dealing from a position of strength. The strong/big brother can let the little brother have more leeway. There is no way Taipei can compete with Beijing anymore. The competition is pretty much over (except a few niches) so mainland can give more to help a KMT leadership under Ma Yingjeou.

The men in Beijing always look at the long term & think strategic so a revitalized tw ultimately benefits the whole china. This giving space to tw is like killing several birds with 1 stone. It benefits the Ma/KMT administration in revitalizing tw's economy thus strengthening their rule. It hits at the DPP & hopefully shatters their dream for coming back to office 2012. It is also another step in pulling tw economy into the Chinese economic orbit.

But note that even as if mainland gives tw greater space and concessions, the DWARF TAIWAN strategy has not slowed down but intensified! For the mainland, this is just a warm up. The game has not even started yet.

That is a very impressive analysis. I especially like the reference to the "DWARF TAIWAN" strategy. Let's make Taiwan feel a little smaller.

 

[Martian2]

Most Taiwanese enjoy a comfortable life. They would not want to relinquish their lifestyle. Now that the Mainland is Taiwan's largest trade partner, Taiwan will become increasingly vulnerable to the threat of the imposition of economic sanctions.

The U.S. wields the stick of sanctions against smaller countries all the time (e.g. witness the current campaign against Iran). On purely economic grounds, it may be fanciful to discuss a Taiwanese independence movement. China could probably crash Taiwan's economy through massive economic sanctions if it wished. Realistically, Taiwan's economic fate lies increasingly in China's hands.

China Focus: Taiwan seeks to join northeast Asian economy | NewsyStocks.com

"China Focus: Taiwan seeks to join northeast Asian economy
Sunday, September 05, 2010 12:11 PM

CHANGCHUN, Sep. 5, 2010 (Xinhua News Agency) -- While northeast Asian economies have stepped up their cooperation in recent years, Taiwan, a smaller economic player, is trying to integrate into the fast-growing region to expand its presence and gain more benefits.

From ultra-thin laptops and 3D projectors to barbecue sauce and milk tea, almost every kind of product displayed by Taiwan attracted attention at the 6th China Jilin Northeast Asia Investment and Trade Expo.

Taiwanese entrepreneurs at the expo said they would increase their investments and further expand their businesses on the Chinese mainland as it has the world's largest market and great growth potential.

Taiwan Haw-Di-I Foods Co., the largest barbecue sauce producer on the island, attended the expo for their second year.

Wei-Te Lee, sales manager of the company's mainland operations, said the company prepared 100,000 yuan (14,705.88 U.S. dollars) of sauce for last year's expo and it only took 5 days to sell out.

"We brought 200,000 yuan of goods with us this time. And sales have exceeded 110,000 yuan during the first two days of the expo," Lee said.

Li Suping, a 57-year-old Changchun resident, bought three bottles of barbecue sauce at the company's stall.

"It's yummy. I'll recommend it to my friends and relatives," she said.

"I could feel that consumers here really like our products," Wei-Te Lee said, adding that the company would continue its localization strategy to target products to the mainland consumers.

Haw-Di-I Foods Co. 2009 mainland sales doubled from one year earlier to 6 million yuan, and sales for this year were expected to hit 9 million yuan, he said.

The company was also considering building a factory on the mainland, he added.

Lee, who was born in Taiwan but now lives in Shanghai said, as a person familiar with both Taiwan and mainland, he was sure that the mainland is vital to Taiwan's future economic development as it has already become Taiwan's largest investment destination and also home to a growing number of Taiwan businessmen.

Taiwan's economy grew at a rate of 13.1 percent in the first half of the year, partly fueled by increased exports to the mainland, which has surpassed the United States to become the island's largest trading partner.

Taiwan and the mainland deepened economic ties in recent years, removing many barriers to cross-strait trade and investment.

The two sides signed the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) in June, under which the mainland would reduce tariffs on 539 Taiwan-produced goods worth 13.83 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 16.1 percent of Taiwan's exports to the mainland, while the island would reduce tariffs on 267 mainland goods worth 2.86 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 10.5 percent of mainland exports to Taiwan.

"I believe the signing of such agreements and attending expos will help Taiwan integrate more with the regional economy," said Chih-Kang Wang, president of Taipei World Trade Center, a trade promotion body.

Taiwan businesses displaying products jumped to 306 at the ongoing expo, from 158 last year, showing that increasing numbers of Taiwan firms are looking to northeast Asia as potential markets.

"The expo provides opportunities for Taiwan firms to seek cooperation with their Japanese, Russian and Korean counterparts and also helps them enter the burgeoning markets," Wang said.

The five-day expo began Thursday in Changchun, northeast China's Jilin Province, attracting 50,000 businessmen from home and abroad, including those from 110 of the world's top 500 companies."

 

[Martian2]

Actually I see the Free Trade agreements between ASEAN countries and ROC as a part of a wider hedge against possible Protectionism and Containment by the West. Now the FTA agreement exists across the Straits further agreements with Taiwan also benefit the PRC

If the West tries to use such measure against the PRC, it retains a backdoor against them through Taiwan which will continue to channel Goods and Investment. This is win win as if the West were to try and block this route by including Taiwan in the same "Containment" regime, it is a tacit acknowledgement of reunification in all but name.

I fully agree with you that China has a very sophisticated strategy to blunt the potential threat of "protectionism and containment by the West." Firstly, China signed a Free Trade Agreement (i.e. FTA) with ASEAN. ASEAN exports to China overlap with some Taiwanese agricultural exports. This spurred Taiwan to sign an ECFA (e.g. effectively a FTA) with Mainland China. The Koreans and Japanese are now worried that the ECFA will give Taiwanese LCD, electronics, and semiconductor manufacturers an "unfair" advantage in the vast China market.

China is in the process of pulling ASEAN (e.g. CAFTA or China-ASEAN FTA), Taiwan (e.g. ECFA), Korea, and Japan into a giant Asian Trade Bloc. Attempts at protectionism or containment of China will not work. The Asian Trade Bloc is roughly equivalent in nominal GDP to NAFTA (e.g. U.S., Canada, and Mexico) and it is growing at a far faster rate.

Asia Times Online :: China News, China Business News, Taiwan and Hong Kong News and Business.

"Taiwan challenge to Korea, Japan
By Jens Kastner
Jul 22, 2010

TAIPEI - The recent signing of the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) between Taipei and Beijing has put South Korea and Japan in an unfavorable position. Through tariff exceptions and reductions, Taiwanese businesses are to enjoy more advantages in the huge mainland market compared with their Korean and Japanese counterparts.

The issue has become more prominent due to still sluggish demand from United States and European Union markets. Since a high percentage of Korean and a considerable share of Japanese exports to China overlap with those from Taiwan, Tokyo and Seoul are afraid of losing their competitive edge.

As Korean businessmen are pressuring their government to sign its own free-trade agreement (FTA) with China, Japanese companies see Taiwan as a short-cut to the mainland Chinese market. The formula is simple: the Japanese side establishes joint ventures in Taiwan to produce goods on the island and thus enjoys the same preferential treatment in China as fully owned Taiwanese companies.

Japanese companies from sectors as various as consumer electronics, semiconductors, optoelectronics, solar cells, machine tools, comics and e-books have reportedly been seeking to get a foothold in Taiwan with the objective of getting easier access to the Chinese mainland market.

Although there are a number of ways Japanese companies could take advantage of Taiwan's new position under the ECFA, the establishment of joint ventures is the most promising. With the help of these, Japanese businesses will be able to benefit from the ECFA just like any native Taiwanese company as soon as the ECFA comes into force in January 2011. By contrast, it would take at least three years before a fully Japanese-owned venture that operates from Taiwan would be allowed to penetrate the mainland market.

Apart from the tariff exceptions and reductions Japanese companies strive to take advantage of, there are other reasons that make Taiwan a closer trading ally for Japan than it has been. Recent labor protests at Japanese-invested factories on the mainland cast increased doubts among the Japanese whether China, the so-called factory of the world, will continue being a good choice for Japanese investments. A significant rise in Chinese labor costs is expected. Widespread anti-Japanese resentment in the mainland also frightens Japanese expatriates and their families residing there, while living conditions and other social factors can make Taiwan appear more appealing.

Last but not least, Taiwan's bureaucracy is seen as far less prone to corruption than China's. Transparency International's 2009 Corruption Index puts Taiwan in 37th place, well ahead of China's ranking of 79.

Japanese businesses establishing links in Taiwan may also help them to compete better with their Korean counterparts.

"South Korea is Japan's first and foremost trade rival, not Taiwan," Liou To-hai, professor of diplomacy at Taiwan's National Chenchi University and Director of the Center for WTO Studies, told Asia Times Online. "By establishing joint ventures with Taiwanese companies, Japan gains advantages in competing with South Korea."

Viewed from a security angle, however, the picture is different. South Korea and Japan - the US's main military allies in the region - should work on a Japan-Korea FTA first before thinking of negotiating on bilateral pacts with others, said Liou. One hindrance is the trade imbalance between the two countries. "The main obstacle a Japan-Korea FTA faces is Korea's trade deficit with Japan," Liou said.

The deficit that has been growing rapidly since 2004 due to imports of high-technology parts for Korea's manufacturing sector and increased tourism to Japan.

China replaced the US as Japan's biggest export destination in 2008, two years after becoming the top destination for Korean goods.

The leaders of China, Japan and Korea agreed in 2002 on undertaking non-governmental academic research
on setting up a regional free trade zone. In-depth studies dragged on until 2009, and when China and Taiwan began negotiating on the ECFA, the China-Japan-Korea trade talks fell back as a priority for Beijing.

After the signing of ECFA, the absence of an FTA between Korea and China is believed to be hurting Korean businesses in particular since 14 of Korea's 20 key export items already faced competition from Taiwanese goods, according to the Korea International Trade Association.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak has been coming under pressure from his country's business groups to remedy the situation since shortly before the ECFA was signed. The demands from various corners of Korea's economic landscape come in unison: The negative impact from the China-Taiwan ECFA must be minimized by signing a Korea-China FTA as soon as possible.

This, however, is a complex task, given that a proposal to establish a US-Korea FTA keeps sticking in the US Congress over sensitive issues in the auto sector.

According to Liou, President Lee's hands are tied because the issues of a China-Korea FTA and the US-Korean FTA are related. "Although Lee is nervous and eager to sign an FTA with China, he couldn't possibly do so before the US-Korea FTA has been approved, since otherwise he would hurt his country's strategically vital relation with the US," said Liou.

In Japan, at least, many companies have decided not to wait for their government to hammer out favorable deals with China. To the Japanese businessmen, the Taiwan-Japan joint-venture concept is the most promising option and are finding support in the media.

"Japanese commentators recommend that Japan sign an FTA with Taiwan and the US first, before they start negotiating with Beijing," he said.

Jens Kastner is a Taipei-based writer."

 

[Martian2]

I find the DPP to be really irritating. Taiwan is 98% Han. My paternal grandfather's name was Guilin. You get only one guess where his lineage originated in China.

The DPP wants to rewrite Taiwanese history and start with the 2% aborigines on Taiwan from 400 years ago. This is ridiculous. The DPP cannot pretend that the 98% of Taiwan's Hans did not come from Mainland China.

I am in desperate need of a magical lamp and three wishes from a genie. Actually, I only need one. I wish the DPP to be banished from Taiwan for rejecting their Han heritage. In my view, they are dangerous separatists.

Guilin, China

DPP opposes tracing Taiwan's history to the Three Kingdoms - The China Post

"DPP opposes tracing Taiwan's history to the Three Kingdoms
Updated Tuesday, September 14, 2010 11:08 am TWN, The China Post news staff

TAIPEI, Taiwan -- The legislative caucus of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) yesterday lashed out at the Ministry of Education (MOE) for purposely tracing Taiwan's history back to the era of The Three Kingdoms, which ran from A.D. 180 - A.D. 280, to pave the way for the reunification of both sides of the Taiwan Strait.

Lawmaker Kuan Bi-ling, convener of the DPP's legislative caucus, told a press conference that the MOE's latest draft revisions to the guidelines of senior high school history textbooks intentionally associate Taiwan with China in a bid to give the impression that Taiwan was historically part of China to pave the way for Taiwan's eventual reunification with China.

Kuan said that the curriculum guidelines for senior high school textbooks drafted in 2003 by the then DPP government and set for implementation in 2006 clearly stated that the history of Taiwan should start with the aboriginals living in the southern part of the island some 400 years ago, who then spread to other parts of the island.

But after taking power, the Ma Ying-jeou administration has suspended the implementation of the 2006 curriculum guidelines for senior high school history textbooks, and revised the guidelines to associate Taiwan with China, according to Kuan.

She said under the revised guidelines, the Wu Kingdom headed by Sun Quan invaded Taiwan and the neighboring Okinawa, trying to build a historical linkage between Taiwan and China. The Wu Kingdom was among the Three Kingdoms in mainland China that emerged after the decline of the Donghan Dynasty around A.D. 180. The other two were Wei Kingdom headed by Cao Cao and the Shu Kingdom headed by Liu Bei.

Another DPP lawmaker Yeh Yi-jin also noted at the press conference that the ruling Kuomintang is trying hard to inject the concept to the minds of local people that Taiwan is part of China to pave the way for the reunification of both sides of the Taiwan Straits. “This is quite a ridiculous and childish practice,” Yeh said.

Both Kuan and Yeh stressed that the DPP legislative caucus will try its best to bar the historical association between Taiwan and China from being part of the curriculum guidelines for the history textbooks of senior high schools."

 

[Martian2]

Chinese warship bombed by Japan to go on display in Taiwan - People's Daily Online

"Chinese warship bombed by Japan to go on display in Taiwan
22:16, September 14, 2010

RELICS FROM CHINESE WARSHIP BOMBED BY JAPAN TO BE EXHIBITED IN TAIWAN

Nearly 60 items retrieved from a famous Chinese warship, Zhongshan, will be exhibited in Taiwan before the 100th anniversary of the Revolution of 1911.

The exhibition will run from Sept. 20 to 27, said Huang Chuqing, director of the Taiwan Affairs Office in Wuhan, capital city of central China's Hubei Province.

On October 24, 1938, the ship was bombed by Japanese invaders near Wuhan, during the War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression (1937-1945). It was salvaged January 28, 1997, and transported to the Hubei Shipyard for preservation.

Zhongshan Warship was named after Sun Yat-sen, whose name in Mandarin Chinese is "Sun Zhongshan." Sun was an important figure in the Chinese Democratic Revolution."

For your information, Sun Yat-sen is a revered figure on both Mainland China and Taiwan.

Chinese tourists gather to watch a flag lowering ceremony near a portrait of Sun Yat-sen who is widely revered as the founder of modern China on Tiananmen Square in Beijing, China, Monday, Sept. 28, 2009. Chinese authorities plan to shut down access to Tiananmen Square in the coming days to prepare for the Oct. 1 National Day parade.

Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hall - Changing of Guards Hourly

 

[Martian2]

The answer is clearly NO. The DPP crazies will get all Taiwanese killed. Becoming extinct is the road that the lunatic DPP favors.

In the hands of the KMT, nuclear weapons are useless. In the end, no true KMT member would use nuclear weapons against fellow Hans. In any case, it's pointless. China loses a few cities and recovers within one generation (e.g. see Hiroshima and Nagasaki).

In the meantime, the epitaph for Taiwan will be: "Here lies the world's foremost country in United States patents granted per capita (e.g. Taiwan was number one). However, Taiwanese had no geostrategic brains and pursued nuclear weapons."

It got them all killed. Well, maybe not all. The armchair general in Boston decided to drop the hyphenated part of his Taiwanese-American identity.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2010/09/14/2003482847

"EDITORIAL : Does Taiwan need nuclear weapons?
Tuesday, Sep 14, 2010, Page 8

The recent publication of a memoir by former US negotiator Jeremy Stone re-ignited a controversy last week over alleged plans under former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水&#25153 to launch a nuclear weapons program.

Stone’s allegations, which ostensibly were sourced from and corroborated post facto by former National Security Council secretary-general Su Chi (蘇&#36215 — who at the time the controversy emerged was a Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) legislator — are hard to substantiate. That the Chen administration, for all its faults, would have engaged in nuclear adventurism stretches credulity. Though it has the technical know-how to do so (and inside sources say a turnaround could take as little as one year), Taiwan could hardly have launched a nuclear weapons program without the US, let alone China, becoming aware of it.

One does not have to read Stone’s book too closely to realize that the views of the former president of the Federation of American Scientists-turned-cross-strait-troubleshooter are wildly skewed in Beijing’s favor. Nothing makes this more evident than the many variations he uses to portray the Chen administration as a “troublemaker,” which may account for Stone’s credulity on the alleged nuclear program.

Unbeknownst to Stone, this very bias against Taipei — not his alone, but that of the international community — lies at the very heart of Taiwan’s defense malaise. In fact, the inherent imbalance was the main reason behind this newspaper’s decision, in August 2004, to publish an editorial that put the nuclear option on the table (despite what Su and Stone may believe, however, the Taipei Times did not and does not have a direct line to the Presidential Office or Democratic Progressive Party headquarters).

More than six years have elapsed and the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait has only continued to shift in Beijing’s favor. Furthermore, nuclear-armed China continues to threaten Taiwan, the would-be “troublemaker” who at no point under Chen adopted anything that could have been interpreted as a belligerent posture.

Given that this situation appears to be a comfortable “status quo” for the likes of Stone, is it not conceivable that Taiwanese would ponder various means to oppose China militarily and present it with a credible deterrent? In and of themselves, peace and democracy will be of little help against an opponent who plays by different rules, as highlighted by Beijing’s refusal to renounce the use of force against Taiwan amid supposedly warming ties. While nuclear weapons may be an extreme recourse — and an unadvisable one at that — Taiwan cannot afford the gullibility that has marked the course adopted by President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英&#20061 administration in cross-strait rapprochement.

While his Cabinet has rightly stuck to less problematic, though by no means inconsequential, matters like economics in its dialogue with Beijing, there is no doubt that in the months ahead — especially as we get closer to Chinese President Hu Jintao’s (胡錦&#28644 stepping down as head of state — talks will touch on more controversial issues such as identity and sovereignty. Once those topics are tackled, friction is bound to emerge, which could quickly escalate and spin out of control. Any outcome to the 2012 presidential poll in Taiwan that isn’t to China’s taste could also serve as a catalyst for a military option.

In such a situation, Beijing, seeing a weakened opponent, could calculate that it can get away with the use of force at little cost, making military action more likely.

That is why, even amid untested signs of rapprochement, Taiwan must continue to acquire and develop not only the means to protect itself, but solid deterrent capabilities so that any military adventurism on Beijing’s part to fulfill its irredentist dreams would come at great cost. A strong Taiwan means less risk of war, not the other way around.

Does Taiwan need nuclear weapons for this? Probably not, but it certainly needs more than naivety and Ma sloganeering, and more than the dishonest diplomacy exercised by the likes of Stone."

 

[CardSharp]

^^^^^^

We would do well to remember the dream of Dr. Sun Yat-sen and his vision for China.

 

[中国万岁-ProsperThroughCo-]

I find the DPP to be really irritating. Taiwan is 98% Han. My paternal grandfather's name was Guilin. You get only one guess where his lineage originated in China.

The DPP wants to rewrite Taiwanese history and start with the 2% aborigines on Taiwan from 400 years ago. This is ridiculous. The DPP cannot pretend that the 98% of Taiwan's Hans did not come from Mainland China.

I am in desperate need of a magical lamp and three wishes from a genie. Actually, I only need one. I wish the DPP to be banished from Taiwan for rejecting their Han heritage. In my view, they are dangerous separatists.

Guilin, China

Ridiculous DPP. Why don't they ask themselves why their own names are Chinese, and not some aboriginal Taiwanese?

中国台湾！

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

In the end, no true KMT member would use nuclear weapons against fellow Hans.

I like that a lot.

These "Civil wars" are really one of the worst things in the world... with brothers killing brothers, cousins killing cousins, and families getting torn apart.

Using nuclear weapons on your fellow Hans, is like nuking your own country. I am sure that the PRC and ROC will never use nuclear weapons against each other.

 

[no_name]

My grandpa served in the KMT army fighting Japanese. (He showed me the bullet scar on his leg) After WWII he got transferred to Taiwan and so didn't fight in the civil war. He had a brother who joined the communist side and died in the subsequent conflict.

My grandpa didn't have my dad until he was nearly fifty, then my dad married somewhat late too. So if I went back to china today most of my cousins are like 50 already and their kids though older than me have to call me uncle.