I have already explained this before.
Let me do it once more. According to my analysis China will never dare to start a war with India. They have much to lose than India.
Apart from their trade, 80% of Chinese oil passes through Indian ocean. China surely will be tempted in desperation or frustration to pull a trigger to kills one or two soldiers or intrude & occupy some of Indian territory like before. But this assumption India will panic & call for peace & back off from Doklam to avoid escalation, will be a big mistake. That gamble will back fire & burst the bubble of the Chinese fake courage & threats. That would be an under estimation of Narendra Modi. Without second thought Modi will cut off the supply route from Indian ocean this time. China will literally panic & face bigger humiliation if this happens. That would be a diplomatic defeat for China as any Chinese later explanation of not wanting war so withdrawing will drastically alter the image of China & make all the smaller countries who are the victims of the Chinese hegemony immediately shift their full weight behind India, to make it the Regional leader. This is the gamble Chinese will never take, even though eventually it will happen, China can buy time to delay it.
Chinese Navy is definitely much bigger than India but it cannot defeat India in Indian ocean on the naval front. India has to only defend Malacca Strait, a small region to smash any Chinese aggression. India is not only the Don of Indian ocean, it also has arrangements with Vietnam to use its ports & bases to station its supplies & launch attacks. And due to the threats from Japan, Taiwan, US, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia & other countries, China cannot even move half of it's navy to Indian ocean. It won't be a surprise, everybody will jump into attack from all sides to exploit Chinese vulnerability If China went to war with India. India alone, on its own can defeat China, without anybody's help on blue waters. Any naval war with India is suicide for China. It will face a certain defeat & it will end its dominating hegemonic Image. India is definitely vulnerable to Chinese Army & Air-force strength, if India & China are players of the war. But just Japan sides India, China will be facing an at par confrontation. Any additional countries will massively turn the tide in to Indian favor. If US & west enters, it's doom for China, unless Russia can take the side of China, even though that also won't save China. Russia with its economic condition won't risk being part of Chinese war. According to me Russia is only dependent of China for its money to keep up Russia's image & economy going. Otherwise any expert can tell the real story behind Putin & Jingping's bitterness & mistrust from their body language.
Russia will be quiet from any misadventures in world politics for next 2 years. I won't be surprised if in coming years they also tilt to US & west. Russia can never afford to lose India, because if China attacks Russia which is bound to happen in future, India is a country which will save major Russian losses. Russia will be more than happy to see a weaker China than its growing military muscle threat.
(Siberia Factor)
The above video will tell the story.
India is preparing for a two front war just to be double safe, but I can confidently say China will never dare to attack India even if there is a war between India & pakistan. Wait & watch. I don't think I will be wrong.
If India stands strong, even small countries like Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia will have the courage to stand up against China. US or Japan cannot take on China without India. They can definitely defeat, but can have unbearable losses on their side too. This is the reason India is a key, to take down China because China can never defeat India on the naval front & mostly will never attack India due to India's control of Chinese trade & oil in Indian ocean.
So all the Pakistanis & others who are fantasizing & rejoicing India is made your life better by taking panga with China will again bite the dust & experience another disappointment. In-fact India has foiled Pakistan media's drum beating of Indian fake encounters, border claims & buzdil soldiers. This will spoil the so far small happiness Pak Gov.t & media used to get by calling Indian soldiers spineless cowards & announcing strikes & casualties fake. This story won't sell anymore as India is surprising not only Pakistan but China, Russia, US & the entire world.
Sit back & enjoy the empty vessel noise of China as it keeps throwing threats at every nation be it Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, Philippines, US, Australia, Bhutan. The latest threat is to Britain as they are also joining the party to needle China by sending their biggest carrier. This is what India has done to China. The SCS is becoming more & more crowded with foreign intervention to Chinese distress. Chinese dejection & desperation is only going to increase more & more they push India.
As the saying goes Barking d0gs seldom bite.
