China on verge of high-income status after wealth measure jumps 20%

[FuturePAF]

What has Putin to gain in Ukraine if he wins the war? He adds some more lands into already giant Russia. The price he pays is He makes Russia into a giant but poor pariah. I rather want to live in a scrambled place but rich Singapore than in a giant prison uninhabitable Russia.

He probably doing it for Glory and to reunite the motherland, regardless of the costs. With the way Russian demographics are, this was their last shot, and they blew it.

 

[Han Patriot]

Putin will more then likely not be around, and he probably figures if he regains the territory, it will be worth it in the end, regardless of how many decades it takes to economically recover. Russia’s demographics were such that it was a make or break time. And his fumble in Ukraine seems to have made it a fumble.

I hope India learns the lesson from this war that any war with a determined western neighbor won’t be a cakewalk and will cost them dearly, which is why I hope the Ukrainians make the Russians pay for every inch of Ukraine they take, even if ukraine seems to “lose” at the end of the current hostilities, because eventually the Russians will have to give back to get sanctions relief. Also, that Pakistan is not as weak as Ukraine and India is not as strong as Russia.


Putin is proabably hoping Chinese companies will invest in Russia, to pick up where Western investors left off. Not a bad idea, especially in civilian industries. China should be careful lot to help the Russian defense industries.

China could also use this conflict to extract concessions from the Russians, such as allowing the PLAN to use the Vladivostok Naval base and Sakhalin Island to get around their first island dilemma, as well as greater incidence in Central Asia, and to allow China to build a corridor between Turkmenistan or Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan to allow BRI back on track (outside of Russian territory)

If China is to be of any use to Russia, China will need ways to insure its economic growth, and the continuation of BRI is vital for that to happen. A Chinese owned trans-caspian rail tunnel would be a game changer.

At this point, we should just aim for helping them evade sanctions through rmb and cips. Russia is gonna be isolated for at least a decade or 2 until we establish a new trading bloc.

 

[FuturePAF]

At this point, we should just aim for helping them evade sanctions through rmb and cips. Russia is gonna be isolated for at least a decade or 2 until we establish a new trading bloc.

Evade is a dangerous word. Find a way to live without as much dependence on western markets. Russia and China have deep ties with the developing world. Building a more diversified and loyal customer base is the best way to stay resilient. Russia has been making inroads into Africa, this is probably the time they will need to accelerate that transition.

A map of all the countries that abstained or were absent is any indication, it shows where Russia’s future prospects lie.

Look at the light and dark Blue parts of the following map

 

[etylo]

He probably doing it for Glory and to reunite the motherland, regardless of the costs. With the way Russian demographics are, this was their last shot, and they blew it.

Putin is doing this for Russia's own security sake. NATO wants to expand into Ukarine to completely encircle Russia and choke it to death. Both NATO and Ukraine want to be enemies of Russia. This will not be tolerated by Putin and Russia all together even if Russia has to pay a heavy price in stopping Ukraine from end up in NATO's camp.

 

[FuturePAF]

Putin is doing this for Russia's own security sake. NATO wants to expands into Ukarine to completely encircle Russia and choke it to death. Both NATO and Ukraine want to be enemies of Russia. This will not be tolerated by Putin and Russia all together even if Russia has to pay a heavy price in stopping Ukraine from end up in NATO's camp.

But by this approach, a full frontal assault on Ukraine, has Putin undermined the very thing he was hoping to accomplish. He may have temporarily secured control of Ukraine, but as his economic prospects and demographics continue to dwindle (the brain drain of top talent and economic drain of the best entrepreneurs has been accelerated by this war), what is the path back to stability for Russia. How will Russia maintain the high standard of living the population has grown accustomed to, which has maintained stability inside Russia for the past 20 years, and prevented a return to the instability of the 90s.

Russia may, in the end , lose more sovereignty with the kind of compromises it will have to make to maintain the status quo as much as possible. What will Russia have to give up in order to receive Chinese support. Not since the Mongol Yolk has Russia had to “pay tribute” to an eastern neighbor. Will Russia have to sell more and more advanced technologies, access (not control) to key territory like Sakhalin and Vladivostok to the Chinese Navy, deeply discounted resources to its few major economic partners.

 

[MH.Yang]

Putin will more then likely not be around, and he probably figures if he regains the territory, it will be worth it in the end, regardless of how many decades it takes to economically recover. Russia’s demographics were such that it was a make or break time. And his fumble in Ukraine seems to have made it a fumble.

I hope India learns the lesson from this war that any war with a determined western neighbor won’t be a cakewalk and will cost them dearly, which is why I hope the Ukrainians make the Russians pay for every inch of Ukraine they take, even if ukraine seems to “lose” at the end of the current hostilities, because eventually the Russians will have to give back to get sanctions relief. Also, that Pakistan is not as weak as Ukraine and India is not as strong as Russia.


Putin is proabably hoping Chinese companies will invest in Russia, to pick up where Western investors left off. Not a bad idea, especially in civilian industries. China should be careful lot to help the Russian defense industries.

China could also use this conflict to extract concessions from the Russians, such as allowing the PLAN to use the Vladivostok Naval base and Sakhalin Island to get around their first island dilemma, as well as greater incidence in Central Asia, and to allow China to build a corridor between Turkmenistan or Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan to allow BRI back on track (outside of Russian territory)

If China is to be of any use to Russia, China will need ways to insure its economic growth, and the continuation of BRI is vital for that to happen. A Chinese owned trans-caspian rail tunnel would be a game changer.

History has passed and we are no longer interested in Vladivostok.

Now China is facing a population crisis, the population of Northeast China is decreasing every year. We even lack population to develop our own territory, and why do we want Vladivostok from Russia?
Vladivostok is now all Russian, they support the Russian govt more, and we don't lack ports in the Pacific, and we more prefer the Russians to mine for us and sell it to us.

We don't want Vladivostok, but we want to rent a small Russian village called Hassan from Russia. That is the estuary of China's Tumen River, but the land on both sides belongs to North Korea and Russia, China's territory is still 6 km away from the coast. If China builds a seaport in Hassan, goods from China's Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces can directly enter the Pacific Ocean from the sea of Japan, that is conducive to the economic development of Northeast China.

 

[FuturePAF]

History has passed and we are no longer interested in Vladivostok.

Now China is facing a population crisis, the population of Northeast China is decreasing every year. We even lack population to develop our own territory, and why do we want Vladivostok from Russia?
Vladivostok is now all Russian, they support the Russian govt more, and we don't lack ports in the Pacific, and we more prefer the Russians to mine for us and sell it to us.

We don't want Vladivostok, but we want to rent a small Russian village called Hassan from Russia. That is the estuary of China's Tumen River, but the land on both sides belongs to North Korea and Russia, China's territory is still 6 km away from the coast. If China builds a seaport in Hassan, goods from China's Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces can directly enter the Pacific Ocean from the sea of Japan, that is conducive to the economic development of Northeast China.


View attachment 824474

Not control of Vladivostok and Sakhalin, but access, from which to operate a growing Navy. It’s not about Chinese people moving there, but Chinese units to operate from there to get around the issue of the first and second island chains.

But if you say that village 6 km from the sea is what China wants, it seems like a healthy middle ground. Protected by the sovereign territory of Russia and North Korea between it and the Sea. That village is also at the end of the Amur River, a River if properly connected could link the Bohai sea and the village you mention. A possible way to build up economic activity in the Chinese Northeast with ships going to and from the polar route, but also a way to allow the PLAN (especially Submarines) to move in and out of the Sea of Japan in relative safety compared to circumnavigating Korea.

An article I read that made me think of the possibility of the navigable Amur River being a major part of growing Sino-Russian cooperation.

The Amur River border. Once a symbol of conflict, could it turn int...

On March 2nd, 14th and 15th, 1969, near Damanski/Chenpao Island on the Ussuri River, Soviet and Chinese forces clashed severely (about 1 000 soldiers were killed). With this confrontation that invo...

journals.openedition.org

 

[Han Patriot]

Evade is a dangerous word. Find a way to live without as much dependence on western markets. Russia and China have deep ties with the developing world. Building a more diversified and loyal customer base is the best way to stay resilient. Russia has been making inroads into Africa, this is probably the time they will need to accelerate that transition.

A map of all the countries that abstained or were absent is any indication, it shows where Russia’s future prospects lie.

Look at the light and dark Blue parts of the following map

View attachment 824466

Well, it depends when China wants to unveil this new trading bloc/system. Maybe they won't even announce it, it is alrwdy running behind the scenes. How do you think Venezuela and Iran and NK are still trading?

 

[FuturePAF]

Well, it depends when China wants to unveil this new trading bloc/system. Maybe they won't even announce it, it is alrwdy running behind the scenes. How do you think Venezuela and Iran and NK are still trading?

True, and Venezuela/Iran/NK has given China a lot of experience in building up its alternative system. Russia will be the big test. We may only notice in a few months or in a year if Russia bounces back.

 

[Han Patriot]

True, and Venezuela/Iran/NK has given China a lot of experience in building up its alternative system. Russia will be the big test. We may only notice in a few months or in a year if Russia bounces back.

Russia may never bounce back in dollar terms. Imagine if Russia trades with China in Rmb and the trade is booming, the world has no way to record this trade and US will assume no trade happened at all.

 

[etylo]

But by this approach, a full frontal assault on Ukraine, has Putin undermined the very thing he was hoping to accomplish. He may have temporarily secured control of Ukraine, but as his economic prospects and demographics continue to dwindle (the brain drain of top talent and economic drain of the best entrepreneurs has been accelerated by this war), what is the path back to stability for Russia. How will Russia maintain the high standard of living the population has grown accustomed to, which has maintained stability inside Russia for the past 20 years, and prevented a return to the instability of the 90s.

Russia may, in the end , lose more sovereignty with the kind of compromises it will have to make to maintain the status quo as much as possible. What will Russia have to give up in order to receive Chinese support. Not since the Mongol Yolk has Russia had to “pay tribute” to an eastern neighbor. Will Russia have to sell more and more advanced technologies, access (not control) to key territory like Sakhalin and Vladivostok to the Chinese Navy, deeply discounted resources to its few major economic partners.

I think Putin thinks Russia's survival or iminent security is at stake right now and he has to take bold actions, he may have to worry the consequences of the war later. As far as China is concerned, I think China wants generally good friendly neighbour relation with Russia first so that China doesn't have to spend hugh resources to guard its northern borders as in the Cold war. And then, the two countries should and want to cooperate and coordinate strategies and actions politically, diplomatically, militarily and economically also with regard to hegemonic USA and the West in general in order to safeguard China and Russia's safety and security together. I don't think China is really looking for unrealistic concessions from Russia especially in territories.

 

[silverox]

When I was a child, I read a story book, Russia killed and thousands of Chinese people, and drove countless Chinese people into rivers to drown, creating the Liuty Tun Massacre in Jiangdong. Later, I researched and found that for 260 years, the Manchu Qing government forbade the Chinese to migrate to Manchuria, and it was not until the face of the Russian invasion that the Manchu Qing allowed the Chinese to migrate to Manchuria and used the population to resist the invasion of the Russian population.
It turned out that those Chinese people killed by Russia were not actually Chinese, but the relatives of Manchus and Manchus, which were the hometowns of Manchus. It was not until the end of the Manchu Qing Dynasty that the Manchu Qing government lost its authority and had no choice but to Relax restrictions and allow Chinese to migrate to Manchuria.
I would also like to talk about a history. During the Ming Dynasty, there were a large number of Chinese people in Manchuria, who were later killed by the Manchus.

 

[etylo]

When I was a child, I read a story book, Russia killed and thousands of Chinese people, and drove countless Chinese people into rivers to drown, creating the Liuty Tun Massacre in Jiangdong. Later, I researched and found that for 260 years, the Manchu Qing government forbade the Chinese to migrate to Manchuria, and it was not until the face of the Russian invasion that the Manchu Qing allowed the Chinese to migrate to Manchuria and used the population to resist the invasion of the Russian population.
It turned out that those Chinese people killed by Russia were not actually Chinese, but the relatives of Manchus and Manchus, which were the hometowns of Manchus. It was not until the end of the Manchu Qing Dynasty that the Manchu Qing government lost its authority and had no choice but to Relax restrictions and allow Chinese to migrate to Manchuria.
I would also like to talk about a history. During the Ming Dynasty, there were a large number of Chinese people in Manchuria, who were later killed by the Manchus.

I don't know what's your point.

 

[FuturePAF]

Russia may never bounce back in dollar terms. Imagine if Russia trades with China in Rmb and the trade is booming, the world has no way to record this trade and US will assume no trade happened at all.

They will know trade is happening, and in RMB, they will even be able to quantify it by the amount of electricity being generated and used. Just because it’s in RMB, it won’t be overlooked by the US, not for an economy that was up until recently, was estimated to be over a trillion dollars in size.

I think Putin thinks Russia's survival or iminent security is at stake right now and he has to take bold actions, he may have to worry the consequences of the war later. As far as China is concerned, I think China wants generally good friendly neighbour relation with Russia first so that China doesn't have to spend hugh resources to guard its northern borders as in the Cold war. And then, the two countries should and want to cooperate and coordinate strategies and actions politically, diplomatically, militarily and economically also with regard to hegemonic USA and the West in general in order to safeguard China and Russia's safety and security together. I don't think China is really looking for unrealistic concessions from Russia especially in territories.

I also don’t think China would want to take any territory, per say, but may want to have more freedom to operate “through it/along side it”.

But I agree, The territorial integrity of Russia is in china’s interest as a buffer to hostile foreign interference, no doubt. And China wouldn’t want to take on the burden of managing Russia or Russian territory.

I guess it’s too early to tell how China will have to maneuver in this new world order, if it has to.

 

[Han Patriot]

They will know trade is happening, and in RMB, they will even be able to quantify it by the amount of electricity being generated and used. Just because it’s in RMB, it won’t be overlooked by the US, not for an economy that was up until recently, was estimated to be over a trillion dollars in size.


I also don’t think China would want to take any territory, per say, but may want to have more freedom to operate “through it/along side it”.

But I agree, The territorial integrity of Russia is in china’s interest as a buffer to hostile foreign interference, no doubt. And China wouldn’t want to take on the burden of managing Russia or Russian territory.

I guess it’s too early to tell how China will have to maneuver in this new world order, if it has to.

Quantify using electricity, I am not sure how they can do that. Anyway, in my opinion, it's almost impossible to stop 2 countries from trading consentually.