China Navy has got 19 new ships year-to-date 2016!

[Genesis]

That's not enough, it is urgent for China to open a second production line for the nuclear submarine.

China has already two production lines for the aircraft carrier, then why not the same for the nuclear submarine?

This is even more critical than the aircraft carrier, because the stealth element could be the decisive factor.

This is true but I think building subs take more time. It seems like the Chinese leaders are placing their bets on ACs. ACs make big fat target for anti-ship missiles, so they need plenty of protection. Since China has no plan to project her power across the oceans I really cannot comprehend why China is so adamant about acquiring these floating behemoths.

If we are to be realistic, AC is far more critical than Submarines. China and the US will posture until the end of time, but war is out of the question. America cannot attack Chinese cities, MAD, and China cannot reach American cities conventionally. Even if we can, same apply to us, MAD. So we are deadlocked, we both know it.

That leaves Chinese interests in smaller countries, in that regard, those nations have no weapons that can actually reach an carrier and a fleet of 50 advanced 4+ fighters will be more than enough to disable all military assets within reason.

In this sense, Chinese interest in ASEAN, Africa, middle east, and South America are determined more by mobile air power than a nuclear submarine, which let's face it none of those nations have anything that needs to be sunked by such an advanced platform.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

If we are to be realistic, AC is far more critical than Submarines. China and the US will posture until the end of time, but war is out of the question. America cannot attack Chinese cities, MAD, and China cannot reach American cities conventionally. Even if we can, same apply to us, MAD. So we are deadlocked, we both know it.

That leaves Chinese interests in smaller countries, in that regard, those nations have no weapons that can actually reach an carrier and a fleet of 50 advanced 4+ fighters will be more than enough to disable all military assets within reason.

In this sense, Chinese interest in ASEAN, Africa, middle east, and South America are determined more by mobile air power than a nuclear submarine, which let's face it none of those nations have anything that needs to be sunked by such an advanced platform.

Seriously, we need at least 50 nuclear subs.

Even each supercarrier battlegroups need to be escorted by at least 2 nuclear fast-attack subs.

 

[Viet]

Two AC production lines, soon three destroyer product lines, and we need the second production for the nuclear submarine as soon as possible.

The ideal solution should be three nuclear submarine productions, since we need to achieve the quantity of 50+ nuclear submarines as soon as possible, and we can also sell some to Pakistan and Iran.

what will china defence budget be?

 

[Genesis]

Seriously, we need at least 50 nuclear subs.

Even each supercarrier battlegroups need to be escorted by at least 2 nuclear fast-attack subs.

For the US, MAD is on the table, so the number of those is irrelevant. In terms of navy, it's highly unlikely we can challenge them before 1950, Germany has twice proven a premature challenge out at sea is foolish.

For the rest, Asia, Africa, and South America, our current configuration is enough. It's actually overkill.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

what will china defence budget be?

The official figure about 150 billion, but we don't have oversea burden and high wage.

Also, our equipment is much cheaper.

 

[Genesis]

what will china defence budget be?

Difficult to say, current Chinese budget doesn't include R&D costs. American's does. Most have put the estimate between 200-300 billion.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

For the US, MAD is on the table, so the number of those is irrelevant. In terms of navy, it's highly unlikely we can challenge them before 1950, Germany has twice proven a premature challenge out at sea is foolish.

For the rest, Asia, Africa, and South America, our current configuration is enough. It's actually overkill.

The USN got 71 nuclear subs, and of course we also need to match them in this criteria.

A fleet with 20 nuclear subs is still too small for China's future need.

 

[Genesis]

The USN got 71 nuclear subs, and of course we also need to match them in this criteria.

A fleet with 20 nuclear subs is still too small for China's future need.

I believe in matching and exceeding the US, but if we are talking nuclear subs, it maybe better to fill the void later, when we have a few minor victories. In those cases, nuclear subs probably won't have much of an effect. Nuclear subs should probably wait.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

I believe in matching and exceeding the US, but if we are talking nuclear subs, it maybe better to fill the void later, when we have a few minor victories. In those cases, nuclear subs probably won't have much of an effect. Nuclear subs should probably wait.

The Type 095 is already starting the production, and it is no less than the Seawolf class, probably even better.

Type 093G = Type 052D
Type 095 = Type 055

I suggest we should first produce few Type 095 in order to evaluate its performance for a while, meanwhile to produce the mature Type 093G in large quantity like the Type 052D.

 

[GS Zhou]

what will china defence budget be?

China's 2015 GDP is about 11 trillion USD, and its current defense budget intensity (defense budget vs. GDP) is 1.9%.

If we increase our budget intensity to the level of Vietnam (2.3% of GDP), PLA can get 11,000 * 0.4%= 44 billion USD additional budget.

052D destroyer costs about 600 million USD per unit. So 44 billion USD = 052D destroyer x 73!! Even if a nuclear submarine is 3x the cost of 052D destroyer, the additional budget still means nuclear submarines x 24!!

 

[Shotgunner51]

I made a count on the newly-operated PLA naval ships year-to-date 2016, and surprisingly found PLA Navy has got 19 new naval ships during the first seven months of 2016 (Jan. to July, 2016), or one new ship every 10 days. The 19 ships include:
- one aegis destroyer,
- two frigates,
- three light frigates,
- one amphibious warfare ship,
- four tank landing ships,
- three replenishment ships,
- one minesweeper,
- one icebreaker
- two survey ships
- one space tracking ship

P.S. submarines are not included in the research. Because it is hard to find the news about submarines commissioning.

Below is the list of the 19 ships, incl. links to the commissioning news.
- 052D Aegis destroyer x 1 (7,000 ton): 175 Yinchuan
http://www.mod.gov.cn/power/2016-07/12/content_4692854.htm

- 054A frigate x2 (4,000 ton each): 531 Xiangtan, 532 Jingzhou
http://www.sastind.gov.cn/n127/n209/c6333736/content.html
http://news.xinhuanet.com/local/2016-01/06/c_128598798.htm

- 056 corvette x3 (1,300 ton each): 506 Jingmeng, 507 Tongren, 508 Qujing
http://15s.cncnews.cn/2016-01-27/124372121.html
http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2016-02/22/c_128740429.htm
http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2016-06/09/c_129048712.htm

- 071 amphibious warfare ships x1 (25,000 ton): 988 Yimeng Shan
http://www.ah.xinhuanet.com/2016-01/26/c_1117895154.htm

- 072B landing ships x4(5,000 ton each): 916 Tianmu Shan, 914 Wuyi Shan, 915 Culai Shan, 917 Wutai Shan
http://news.sina.com.cn/c/2016-01-13/doc-ifxnqrkc6351706.shtml
http://mil.sohu.com/20160308/n439694788.shtml

- 903A replenishment ship x3 (23,000 ton each): 966 Gaoyou Lake, 963 Honghu Lake, 964 Luoma Lake
http://www.yangzhou.gov.cn/qxxw/201602/7302216725874e1e9883b4f61e88e131.shtml
http://www.mod.gov.cn/photos/2016-07/15/content_4694858.htm

- 082B mine countermeasures vessel x1 (600 ton): 811 Rongcheng
http://www.janes.com/article/57565/china-commissions-type-082-ii-class-mcmv

- Type-272 icebreakers x1 (5,000 ton): Haibing 723
http://www.81.cn/hj/2016-03/23/content_6972315.htm

- Survey ships x2 (6,000 ton each): 874 Deng Jiaxian, 876 Qian Weichang
http://xinwen.eastday.com/a/160728100752457.html?btype=detail&subtype=jptj&idx=17&ishot=0&xx=1
http://news.qq.com/a/20160204/036790.htm

- Space tracking ship x 1 (30,000 ton): Yuanwang-7
http://news.xinhuanet.com/mil/2016-07/12/c_129138075.htm

Good progress with PLAN building, especially when China's defence spending is only slightly above 1% of GDP, that's almost the most pacifist level among all nations.

 

[Viet]

Difficult to say, current Chinese budget doesn't include R&D costs. American's does. Most have put the estimate between 200-300 billion.

$215b per SIPRI. I just wondered how much you defence budget will be, let say in 5-10 years?

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

$215b per SIPRI. I just wondered how much you defence budget will be, let say in 5-10 years?

Even China hikes its military expenditure to 500 billion in the next 5 years is not outrageous.

 

[T-Rex]

Two AC production lines, soon three destroyer product lines, and we need the second production for the nuclear submarine as soon as possible.

The ideal solution should be three nuclear submarine productions, since we need to achieve the quantity of 50+ nuclear submarines as soon as possible, and we can also sell some to Pakistan and Iran.

The last part of your statement is the key to tackling the US ambitions. The last thing the US wants is a powerful Pakistan, it has come to some kind of understanding with Iran because Iran does not possess nukes. Propping up Pakistan as much as possible and as fast as possible, the way they are propping up india, is the solution to this threat directed towards China. Sooner or later Pakistan will do the job for China if she is propped up adequately, so my suggestion is to avoid a conflict at the SCS at this stage if possible but if the US continues its bellicose, a conflict close to the Chinese shores won't be that risky. If China offers Pakistan couple of nuclear subs the US will stop thinking of threatening China and think of solving the dispute amicably.

 

[Dungeness]

$215b per SIPRI. I just wondered how much you defence budget will be, let say in 5-10 years?

Wow, It is already more than Vietnam's GDP. So it is not wise to get into an arm race with China. Better be friends than foes.