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"Beyond China GDP — Other Indicators Point to Pickup for Economy
Published: Thursday, 12 Jul 2012 | 10:23 PM ET
By: Jean Chua
Writer for CNBC.com

China’s GDP grew at its slowest pace in three years in the second quarter, but other less-cited indicators are already signaling that the world’s second-largest economy may be starting to turn around.

buar2.jpg

Kohls Kohls|F1online RM|Getty Images

The economy grew 7.6 percent in the April-June quarter, slower than the 8.1 percent in the first quarter and 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter of last year.

The slowdown has raised concerns around the world that one of the largest drivers of global growth in recent year and the world’s largest consumer of commodities such as oil and copper may suffer a sharper downturn.

Yet indicators that are now being more closely tracked by economists and hedge funds for a reading on the economy such as loan growth, power output, new investment projects and oil demand, while mixed, are painting a picture of strength ahead for China, economists tell CNBC.

According to Nomura’s Chief China Economist Zhiwei Zhang, among the 32 indicators he tracks, nearly two-thirds showed faster growth in May than April.


“Having a mix of negative and some positive data are typical at turning points in the economy, and indeed our conviction remains strong that the second quarter is the bottom of the economic downswing,” Zhang said. “There are also signs that the policy easing has started to gain traction through the month of June.”

For example, the MNI China Business Sentiment, a private sector survey of businesses in 32 cities, showed an improvement in its final reading on June 29, compared to the flash estimate released two weeks earlier.

The final reading was 53.21 versus an initial reading of 51.92, which indicates that firms who responded in the final week were starting to be more positive, Zhang added.

At the same time, new bank loans in June rose 16 percent to 919.8 billion yuan ($144.3 billion) from May’s 793 billion yuan ($124.4 billion) and April’s 682 billion yuan ($107 billion), the People’s Bank of China said on Thursday, in a sign government efforts to spur the country's slowing economy may be working.

This means that the second quarter was as bad as it got, Zhang said. He’s forecasting that China will report 7.8 percent growth for the period, slightly higher than a consensus estimate of 7.6 percent in a Reuters poll. The economy will then rebound to 8.6 percent in the third quarter and 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter, translating to an expansion of 8.4 percent for the whole of 2012, Zhang said.

Power, Coal and Gasoline

Other indicators are showing an uptick in economic activity in China. Power output, an alternative gauge of industrial activity, rose in May, according to the latest available data from China Electricity Council. The country generated 389.8 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity in May, up 2.7 percent over the previous year. That compares to growth in electricity generation of just 0.7 percent in April.

China bears Andy Xie and Gordan Chang though read the electricity output numbers differently, pointing out that the growth is extremely weak and suggests further weakness.

But Alistair Thornton, China Economist at IHS Global Insight in Beijing says that after a dismal April, China’s economy has brightened up a touch. Things do look better, but primarily because they have not gotten worse.

However, he remains worried about another indicator, fast-building coal stockpiles, which he calls “one of the most worrying signs of economic weakness.” The main power-generating companies kept stocks sufficient for 28 day’s use as of early June, a record high for an industry which typically stores about two weeks of coal, he said.

“Stockpiles tend to track economic activity quite tightly— the slower the economy, the higher the stocks,” Thornton said. “This happened in 2008-09, and is happening again now.”

Stephen Green, Chief China Economist for Standard Chartered, said that while it is true that the industrial sector has weakened, the Chinese consumer remains resilient. Demand growth for gasoil and diesel has flattened off in the past six months, growing only at 2 percent year-on-year but gasoline production was holding steady at 8 percent year-on-year up to May, he said, suggesting that household consumption growth continues to hold up.

“Crude demand is telling us that yes, there’s a slowdown in the industrial sector but gasoline demand is still strong so it’s telling me that the consumer is still robust,” Green told CNBC. “I think we are in a structurally slower growth environment but it is stabilizing.”

He expects a moderate recovery in the second half of the year that will help the economy expand by 7 to 8 percent this year, thanks partly to China’s easing measures.

“If you look at the measures that the government is taking, normally it takes about 3 to 4 months before we start seeing signs of pick up,” Green said. “In this case, we can see that loan growth has started picking up, projects have started picking up, so yes, I think we can expect a turnaround in September."

- By CNBC's Jean Chua."
 
Infosys unit among top 10 global service providers in China

IT major Infosys today announced that its subsidiary Infosys China has been listed amongst the Top 10 global service providers in China, by the country's Council for International Investment Promotion.

This is the second consecutive year that Infosys China has received this award, the city-headquartered company said in a statement here.

Rangarajan Vellamore, CEO, Infosys China said, "This recognition is a testimony of our commitment to the IT industry in China as we continue to invest and expand our footprint in the region."

He said the company was focused on delivering high quality growth to their local and global clients in China through their diversified portfolio of offerings covering their clients' transformation, innovation and operational needs.
Infosys China was incorporated in 2004 and reported revenues of USD 102 million in fiscal 2012.

The company is also developing a new campus at Zizhu Science and Technology Park in Shanghai, Vellamore said adding it employed over 3,000 people.

Infosys unit among top 10 global service providers in China
 
New Gas Guzzlers: China, India, Brazil, and other developing countries soon will consume most of the world's oil. - Slate Magazine

"The New Gas Guzzlers
By Matthew Yglesias|Posted Friday, July 13, 2012, at 3:37 PM ET

China, India, Brazil and other developing countries will soon consume most of the world’s oil. That’s alarming news for the U.S.

kTNu2.jpg

Cars line up at a gas station on Feb. 7, 2012 in Fuzhou, China
Photograph by ChinaFotoPress/Getty Images.

Starting next year, for the first time on record the wealthy nations of Europe, North America, and Japan will account for less than one-half the world’s oil usage, projects the latest Oil Market Report from the International Energy Agency.

That’s partially a reflection of the growing efficiency of wealthy nations, and partially a reflection of poor countries’ growing prosperity. But it’s also a specific challenge for the United States of America, which, unlike our smaller rich peers, has grown accustomed to thinking of itself as master of its own destiny. A world in which a majority of oil consumption is happening in China, India, and Latin America is a world in which America’s energy fate is driven by forces beyond our control. And we’re pretty far behind in preparing for it.

Demand for oil in rich countries has been falling for six years. In North America and Europe, year-on-year oil consumption declined every year but one since 2007. (The exception year of 2010 was a weak, one-off bounce-back from a recession, not a real interruption of the trend.) The causes of the decline are varied, but they start with steady improvement in vehicle fuel economy. Throw in the fact that U.S. vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) have been slowly declining as a result of demographic trends (more old people, fewer parents with kids at home) and the increased fashionability of urban living, and the transportation sector is primed for declining oil use. Meanwhile, cheap natural gas has cut into nontransportation oil usage.

By contrast, demand for oil has been booming outside of the rich countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The IEA forecasts that non-OECD gasoline demand will rise 4.2 percent in the second half of 2012.

In countries that are poor but rapidly growing, the raw increase in the number of vehicles on the road swamps any technical improvements in their efficiency. If a prosperous Brazilian family upgrades to a shiny new Prius, whatever they used to be driving will find a loving home with a previously carless family, just lately rich enough to afford a used clunker. Millions of Chinese people are converting each month from bicycles to scooters and from scooters to small cars, while the country’s top 2 or 3 percent develop for the first time a taste for western luxury vehicles. It’s quite possible that average gas mileage in developing world automobile fleets is in fact rising, but the fleets are growing so fast so that the total demand for oil is voracious.

And as countries get richer, they have more business travelers and tourists. China used 357,000 barrels of jet fuel per day in 2010 and is up to 403,000 per day in 2012.

In the real world, nothing magical will occur when the lines between rich-world and developing-world oil consumption cross in the near future. But the shift is emblematic of a changed reality that hasn’t yet been fully processed by Americans. We’re used to living in a world where rich countries were the whole ballgame and the American economy was so much bigger than Germany’s or Japan’s that we could afford to treat the global economy and the American one as largely coextensive. Those days are gone. In the near future, trends in global commodity prices—most of all the highly variable price of gasoline—are more likely to be driven by policy changes in Asia than in the United States, making America’s perennial game of political whining about the price of gasoline even more ridiculous than usual.

Other rich countries, generally being fairly small, have been in this boat for decades. And generally they’ve responded in the smart way, not by adopting public policies designed to guarantee the availability of cheap gasoline but by trying to insulate their economies from the impact of price swings. They do that first and foremost by imposing substantially higher taxes on gasoline. In a small way, that reduces the real volatility of the price paid by the consumer. But the bigger impact is simply that it pushes households to organize lives to be less dependent on lavish gas consumption. For some this is a matter of walking or taking mass transit to work. But the biggest difference is simply lighter, less fuel-intensive cars. Such a move here would have the added benefit of plugging the hole in our current transportation infrastructure trust fund that’s currently being filled with one-off gimmicks.

Unfortunately, any such move in the United States is politically inconceivable at the moment. But the developing world’s thirst for oil is only going to grow. Poor countries can enrich themselves at the pace it takes to transfer or imitate production technologies already in use in rich places. But rich countries—and global oil supply—can only grow at the much slower pace at which genuine innovation takes place. And this kind of catch-up consumption growth is really only getting started. The IEA anticipates that the fastest demand growth over the next year will come from Africa, where economic growth has been quietly gaining momentum. There’s nothing America can possibly do, policy-wise, to obtain overall growth rates as rapid as those enjoyed by countries reversing decades of terrible public policy. That’s going to mean less affordable commodities for Americans, even as our polarized political system prevents us from responding to those higher prices with more sensible policies."
 
China makes its first optical clock more accurate than atomic clocks

"China makes its first optical clock more accurate than atomic clocks
Technology - General
Thursday, 12 July 2012 19:21

Last week we spend a few minutes to talk about the Leap Second , set the time because I had a couple of days per year could be 24 hours and one second. This adjustment had its origin in the discrepancy between the time horizons we use now (atomic clocks) for the duration of days based on the rotation of the Earth (which undergoes changes and is not always exact thing). Atomic clocks from the 60, governing the official time in many countries (eg Spain set the official time atomic clock of the Royal Institute and Observatory of the Navy in San Fernando ) but for several years, scientists have managed advance much more accurate devices, optical clocks. To date there were few countries that had managed to develop this kind of watches (six) and, as announced today, China has just finished building their own (making it the seventh country to do so).

hMxlv.jpg

[View into the ultrahigh vacuum chamber in which strontium atoms are cooled and stored. In the upper third of the window, the blue fluorescent light of a cloud of cold strontium atoms (Sr) is to be seen.]

Since 1967, the International System of Units defines the latter as:

A second is the duration of 9,192,631,770 oscillations of the radiation emitted in the transition between two hyperfine levels of the ground state isotope cesium-133 atom (133Cs) at a temperature of 0 degrees kelvin

This definition is based on atomic clocks, devices that mark since the official time of many countries and are used to govern synchronization systems for many network servers (NTP). Until then, time was measured by a calculation means (to eighty-six thousand cuatrocientosava part of the duration that had the mean solar day between 1750 and 1890), therefore, to mid-twentieth century was the measure of time without being somewhat accurate. Actually, although progress has been made in this direction and every time we measure time more accurately, to have atomic clocks error, very small but not negligible, and as time passes, the cumulative error requires adjustments to correct .

In 2001, an American team was the first to measure more precisely the time and developed the first optical clock of history and for that used a prototype clock based on optical frequency-cooled mercury ion. Soon after, the British National Physical Laboratory (parents of the first atomic clock) multiplied by three precision ion optical clock using strontium U.S.. Now, in the 2012, China has announced the manufacture of the first optical clock using a single calcium ion which is able to maintain such precision that would introduce an error of only 1 second every 10 million years.

The development has been undertaken of the Hubei Academy of Sciences and to build the device, used electromagnetic fields to capture a calcium ion and watch, for about fifteen days, the atomic motion of the ions. Observing, instead of measuring the activity level atomic microwave, optical clocks are responsible for measuring the activity in the optical spectrum (observing the photons), thereby reducing the error between 100 and 1,000 times.

And what a watch can serve as accurate? Given that the margin of error is 1 second every 10 million years this accuracy is useful in several areas ranging from the States (to set the official hours), the telecommunications industry (synchronization equipment) to pass even the manufacture of precision instruments.

Image: PTB"
 
China finishes installing world's largest hydropower unit
China finishes installing world's largest hydropower unit - Xinhua | English.news.cn


YICHANG, July 13 (Xinhua) -- China has completed the installation of the world's largest hydropower-generating unit and launched a trial, according to the China Three Gorges Corporation.

Workers are testing the generator with a capacity of 800,000 kW at the Xiangjiaba hydropower station, which is located in the lower reaches of the Jinsha River, a major headstream of the Yangtze, said a spokesman with the corporation Friday.

The trial on the unit, coded No. 8, is set to be finished by the end of July, said the spokesman.

The construction of the Xiangjiaba dam, undertaken by the corporation, started in late 2006. The first batch of its units are expected to be put into use as early as October, he said.

The dam, designed with eight 800,000-kW generators, will have a total generating capacity only following the Three Gorges Dam and the Xiluodu hydropower station in the country.

Previous reports said China is working on hydropower units with a record-breaking capacity of more than 1 million kW, expected to be put into service by 2020.
 
China makes its largest hybrid delivery port tire crane
China makes its largest hybrid delivery port tire crane | China's Great Science and Technology
crane-300x240.jpg



2012-07-15 — Recently, Yichang strength Lifting Machinery Co., Ltd. of China’s largest hybrid LQD50A type 60-ton crane through the port of Tyre in Wuhan Port Machinery Quality Supervision and Testing Center of the type testing, access to special equipment type test certificate, has been delivered Yingkou Port Group Co., Ltd. to use.

It is reported that 60-ton dual-port power LQD50A type tire crane, which self-control and external AC power control system, two systems can be separately controlled to achieve the crane, a button to switch quickly and conveniently. DC electric machine inherits the traditional advantages of the port tire crane and innovation in technology, one hundred tons fuel-efficient than similar products loading and unloading fuel consumption more than 30%, in the use of an external AC operation, loading and unloading operations can reduce the cost of more than 70% and reduce maintenance costs over 50%.

Currently, the LQD50A type of hybrid energy-saving tire crane port already has four series of 16 tons, 25 tons, 30 tons, 40 tons, 50 tons, 60 tons, such as the six-level products, the major seaport, the port along the Yangtze River, widely used in railway freight yard.

Yichang Lidao Crane Machinery Co., Ltd., located in Zhijiang City, Hubei Province, is a high-tech enterprise specializing in the design and manufacturing of port tyre cranes.

Relying on the technical force in port machine, technology exchange platform with the industry peers in the world and state-level laboratories for crane machinery of the logistics faculty of Wuhan University of Technology, the company has a R&D, quality control and technical support team based on experts, professors, senior engineers and graduate students. Through market research and absorbing the mature experience in various port tyre cranes at home and abroad, the company has carried out repeated demonstration by combining the actual usage situation of cranes at port, thus has independently developed Lidao LQD50A-type four series hybrid low-energy port tyre cranes and grad hybrid port tyre cranes at seven levels including 16t, 25t, 30t, 36t, 40t, 50t and 60t. The company owns full intellectual property rights for the above mentioned series of cranes, which have an advantage over other products at the same level with an energy conservation rate of over 30%.

“Lidao” port tyre crane is not a sticker for either traditional or modern concept in design, but an integrator of both inheritance and innovation. In the philosophy of “Safe and Reliable, Simple and Practical, Easy to Be Maintained, Low-energy Consumption and Eco-friendly”, the company delivers cost-effective and high-quality products which fully meet customers’ individual needs based on customers’ requirements. All the products have won high recognition for their practical function from users at ports, warehouses, stations, railway yards, etc.

The company constantly develops new markets in the business philosophy of “Practical, Efficient, High-quality, Low-cost”, the tenet of “Quality and Service”, and the business management concept of “Customer Focus, Constant Progress, Constant Improvement, Constant Innovation, Constant Perfection”, so as to realize steady and sound development for the company and serve and benefit the community.
 
Chinese independently developed synthetic aperture sonar system completes task in Oman waters
Chinese independently developed synthetic aperture sonar system completes task in Oman waters | China's Great Science and Technology
synthetic-aperture-sonar-300x240.jpg



2012-07-15 — Recently, synthetic aperture sonar system with our own intellectual property in Oman waters successfully completed the task of “Zheng He shipwreck remains exploration”, and has achieved important results. The system is in support of National 863 Program, independently developed by the Institute of Acoustics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The tasks of shipwreck exploration lasted 14 days, a total journey of a thousand kilometers, including 10 target areas with precision sweep measurement and finally identified six shipwreck targets. The project not only achieved a complete success, but also a successful application cases of the 863 program in China.

The sweep measurement waters in the Gulf of Oman, a total of 12 target sea area, for the accurate detection of the wreck location, the Chinese side sent a technical team of six people arrived in the Omani capital of Muscat on May 3, after four days of transport equipment installation, debugging, set sail on May 8 to target waters. Multi-angle annular search, point by point exclusion, confirmed that only four days, six of the 12 in the target sea area was identified as the shipwreck remains of two nets too much, can not be operating to give up sweep measurements.

May 14, the two sides held the exchange of the experimental task, the Chinese side of the experimental results. Oman’s military, Culture and Heritage Ministry, the state television and other multi-sectoral attended the whole navigation and detection, see depicting a clear image of the wreck and accurate detection results, Oman experts and reporters show strong interest on Chinese synthetic aperture sonar equipment and expressed a strong desire to in-depth cooperation.

In the shipwreck exploration mission, Chinese team uses high-frequency synthetic aperture sonar with side-scan mode to archive a resolution of 5cm × 3.75cm, which is the highest resolution synthetic aperture sonar in the international publicly report. The successful complement of this overseas task indicates that China has reached advanced level in synthetic aperture sonar development.
 
thanks, your correction. Superconduction application is very useful.

on the second machine. gear production has number of methods, slicing machine can make the cost lower and may reduce time of manufacture(only on limited scales), if in mass production, slicing machine is not a good solution --- very inefficient. In ten years ago, slicing technology was used to produce complicate parts and prototypes. complicate dimension parts mostly impossible to produce by traditional methods, even some method can do, but can not produce in accurate dimensions. slicing machine is something to make complicate simple, to produce numbers of 2-D element products to generate 3-D products.


Wind turbines and electrical generators do not fit this slicing machine.
small electrical generators are low cost products, must be produced in mass scales, anything out from this machine is not cheap, take hours or a day each. large electrical generators is huge parts weight in dozen tons, too big to slice. there are number production methods for gears to choose, why slice? same thing in Wind turbines.

I think you misunderstood the machine. You're thinking of a 3D Printer. a 3D printer deposits layers of material in 2D to create a 3D object. There are severe limitations with that as well.

The machine we're talking about is just a high efficiency CNC precision milling tool used for gear production. Depending on the specifications and tolerance of the gear, you can indeed use those for things like wind turbines. Though I do agree that the best use of this machine would be something like fast prototyping. You'd do most of the standard stuff using casting methods like wax molding etc.

Anyhow, not really all that relevant nor exciting for forum readers, so I'll leave it at that.
 
China makes its first optical clock more accurate than atomic clocks

"China makes its first optical clock more accurate than atomic clocks
Technology - General
Thursday, 12 July 2012 19:21

Last week we spend a few minutes to talk about the Leap Second , set the time because I had a couple of days per year could be 24 hours and one second. This adjustment had its origin in the discrepancy between the time horizons we use now (atomic clocks) for the duration of days based on the rotation of the Earth (which undergoes changes and is not always exact thing). Atomic clocks from the 60, governing the official time in many countries (eg Spain set the official time atomic clock of the Royal Institute and Observatory of the Navy in San Fernando ) but for several years, scientists have managed advance much more accurate devices, optical clocks. To date there were few countries that had managed to develop this kind of watches (six) and, as announced today, China has just finished building their own (making it the seventh country to do so).

hMxlv.jpg

[View into the ultrahigh vacuum chamber in which strontium atoms are cooled and stored. In the upper third of the window, the blue fluorescent light of a cloud of cold strontium atoms (Sr) is to be seen.]

Since 1967, the International System of Units defines the latter as:



This definition is based on atomic clocks, devices that mark since the official time of many countries and are used to govern synchronization systems for many network servers (NTP). Until then, time was measured by a calculation means (to eighty-six thousand cuatrocientosava part of the duration that had the mean solar day between 1750 and 1890), therefore, to mid-twentieth century was the measure of time without being somewhat accurate. Actually, although progress has been made in this direction and every time we measure time more accurately, to have atomic clocks error, very small but not negligible, and as time passes, the cumulative error requires adjustments to correct .

In 2001, an American team was the first to measure more precisely the time and developed the first optical clock of history and for that used a prototype clock based on optical frequency-cooled mercury ion. Soon after, the British National Physical Laboratory (parents of the first atomic clock) multiplied by three precision ion optical clock using strontium U.S.. Now, in the 2012, China has announced the manufacture of the first optical clock using a single calcium ion which is able to maintain such precision that would introduce an error of only 1 second every 10 million years.

The development has been undertaken of the Hubei Academy of Sciences and to build the device, used electromagnetic fields to capture a calcium ion and watch, for about fifteen days, the atomic motion of the ions. Observing, instead of measuring the activity level atomic microwave, optical clocks are responsible for measuring the activity in the optical spectrum (observing the photons), thereby reducing the error between 100 and 1,000 times.

And what a watch can serve as accurate? Given that the margin of error is 1 second every 10 million years this accuracy is useful in several areas ranging from the States (to set the official hours), the telecommunications industry (synchronization equipment) to pass even the manufacture of precision instruments.

Image: PTB"

This is very exciting. One of the key technologies holding back China in developing precision positioning systems is the lack of a precision clock. It is THE technology that the Europeans and the Americans REFUSED to share with China because it is THE KEY component to a more accurate Satellite Positioning System like COMPASS or GPS.

The accuracy of the clock onboard a satellite is directly translatable to the accuracy of the positioning.


This is technology that not even the Russians have. Their GLONASS is pretty old and they have not mastered the technology for a clock of such precision yet. Perhaps we can do a trade with the Russians in exchange for another key technology for this breakthrough.

Anyhow, very exciting stuff.
 
不知道今年能不能有八万亿。

8 trillion is safe, even IMF says so, considering that they have the record of underestimating China's GDP.

I am interested to see if China can break through the 8.5 trillion barrier in this year. :coffee:
 
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