China Economy Forum

[Kyle Sun]

I like GD BBQ very much ,and I miss COW combination soup!

Why are you people comparing China to India again?

Because we are both big developing country and we are neighbor also.

 

[S10]

I like GD BBQ very much ,and I miss COW combination soup!


Because we are both big developing country and we are neighbor also.

You should not measure yourself against someone worse than you.

 

[Kyle Sun]

You should not measure yourself against someone worse than you.

I am not against India , just compare!

 

[Beidou2020]

Why are you people comparing China to India again?

We are comparing Guangdong province to the whole of India.
That's a fair comparison.

Just one province of China is good enough to embarrass the whole of India.

 

[xuxu1457]

CRH380A high - speed EMU factory

 

[Beidou2020]

Era of renminbi dawns as China’s influence grows - FT.com

Currency is set to acquire international status in three years

“The Chinese currency, the renminbi, is not terribly well known at the moment, but over my lifetime it’s going to become almost as familiar as the US dollar.” So said George Osborne during a recent visit to Shanghai.

At first glance, this might seem unrealistic. The renminbi is hardly a global investment currency and barely registers on central bank balance sheets. So any change would require a profound shift in the financial landscape.

Yet the renminbi is evolving at a remarkable pace. As a medium of exchange and unit of account, it is on course to acquire international status in three years; in 10, it may unseat the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

The renminbi’s growing stature is visible on many fronts. The first is trade. History shows the currencies of countries that play an important role in the global economy have developed into major players on the world stage. And with China the globe’s biggest trading nation, the renminbi has momentum in its favour. It is already the world’s ninth most traded currency and recently replaced the euro as the second most heavily used in international trade finance.

So conditions are ripe for the renminbi to become a major trading currency over the next three years. By then it should account for about 5 per cent of global trade, a fivefold increase on the 2012 figure.

Its transformation into a global investment currency is also progressing rapidly. Here the catalysts are financial reform and capital market expansion. Under plans unveiled by President Xi Jinping, China aims to extend the yield curve for government bonds and create a capital market that serves the needs of a broad range of borrowers and investors, domestic and foreign. This development, alongside a prospective widening of the renminbi’s trading band, should boost the currency’s credentials as an international investment vehicle.

China’s renminbi-denominated debt market is already the largest in emerging markets. The volume of international bonds outstanding has expanded by some 800 per cent during the past three years and the market has played host to foreign issuers such as McDonald’s and Caterpillar.

While the market is largely off limits to international investors, Mr Xi’s reforms suggest this situation will soon reverse. So, in five years, the renminbi should become a top-three issuing currency in the international bond market alongside the euro and dollar.

Ground to make up
It is as an international reserve currency that the renminbi has most ground to make up. Currently only 0.01 per cent of world central bank foreign exchange reserves are held in renminbi. That compares with 60 per cent in dollars and 25 per cent in euros. But this tiny percentage masks an underlying reorientation towards the renminbi – a process that began in 2005 when China abandoned fixed exchange rates.

Before then the dollar was the only reference point for developing world central banks. By some distance the largest constituent of policy makers’ foreign exchange assets, it exerted a big influence on the behaviour of emerging market currencies.

Since 2005, however, a different pattern has emerged. The dollar’s pull on emerging market currencies – or the co-movement between the dollar and other units – has waned. Previously, when the dollar moved 1 per cent, emerging market currencies would head in the same direction by an average of 0.8 per cent. Today, the co-movement is closer to 0.5 per cent.

Scene is set
The dollar’s loss has been the renminbi’s gain. Where it once had no influence at all, a 1 per cent move in the renminbi today causes a 0.1 to 0.2 per cent shift in other emerging currencies. As China’s economic influence grows, this tendency can only strengthen. Should trends persist, the currency could account for 30 per cent of central bank foreign exchange reserves by 2025, when it begins to threaten the dollar’s reserve currency status.

An obstacle on the path to renminbi dominance is China itself. It has shown reluctance to open up its capital account, while its export-dependent economy and huge holdings of US Treasuries mean policies that lead to currency appreciation are not necessarily favoured by policy makers.

But the benefits of an international currency – low borrowing costs and reduced exchange rate risk – should eventually prove too alluring for the Chinese authorities to ignore. The scene is set, then, for the unit to come of age and for renminbi-denominated securities to evolve into core holdings for global investors, probably at the expense of US dollar assets. The era of the renminbi is upon us.

 

[Beidou2020]

China may have surpassed the United States to become the world's largest trader in 2013 as its export and import volume between January and November significantly exceeded that of the US, not a few observers and scholars believed.

They thought China was to take the throne as the world's largest economy from the US in 2012 but due to different methods of calculation, China's trade figure was ruled $15.64 billion lower than the US.

Since then China has become the biggest trading partner to 126 countries in the world and the second biggest trading partner to 79 countries. It has also been the world's largest exporter for four consecutive years.

Between January and November 2013, the total value of China's exports and imports reached $3.77 trillion, according to the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China and Shanghai's China Business News. While the US Department of Commerce's figure showed the US trade over the first ten months in 2013 reached $3.26 trillion.

Based on previous experience and growth, the total export volume of China's trade last year is estimated to have reached $4.14 trillion, which will have been the first time the country's trade volume breaches the $4 trillion benchmark.

The US would have to have exported and imported US$0.88 trillion in November and December to catch up with China's figure, which many think impossible.

The exact trade figures for China are scheduled to be announced next week and those of the US in February.

If China were to win the world's largest trader title from the US, it would certainly elevate China's status in the world economy but may also trigger a trade competition between the US and China, said Tu Xinquan from the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing.

The country's trade surplus in 2013 is expected to have exceeded $240 billion, which will be the highest recorded since the 2008 financial crisis. The US may use trade barriers and demand renminbi appreciation to regain its title in response.

 

[cnleio]

The money is not everything, but everthing has its price.

 

[cirr]

China’s car sales easily beat the 20 million mark

China became the first country in which more than 20 million vehicles were sold in any given year as automakers from leading Toyota to General Motors or Volkswagen AG delivered a record number of cars in the country.

According to the state-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, total deliveries rose 14 % to 21.98 million units last year and may exceed 24 million in 2014. Last year’s sales of passenger vehicles, excluding buses and commercial trucks, climbed to 17.93 million – or 15 % more than the U.S. auto industry.

While China’s motorization has been a boon for foreign automakers – all the major ones saw record sales in the country in 2013 – pressure is building on the government to step in as pollution chokes residents and traffic congestion turns roads into parking lots. With air quality deteriorating so much that children and the elderly are regularly warned to stay indoors, Beijing is tightening its vehicle quotas and Tianjin is capping the number of licenses issued this year.

GM, which counts China as its biggest market, saw sales climb 11 % to 3.16 million in the country last year. Though the Detroit-based carmaker outsold all foreign automakers in China for eight straight years, it may lose that lead when Volkswagen reports 2013 figures later this month. The Wolfsburg, Germany-based company surpassed its previous annual record by selling 2.96 million vehicles in the first 11 months.

Ford, which got a late start in China, benefited from the popularity of its Focus car, helping the company post the biggest growth among major foreign automakers. China deliveries surged 49 % to 935,813 units, outselling Toyota on annual basis for the first time.

Toyota, the global leader in auto sales, fell to No. 6 among foreign automakers in China, though Japanese carmakers rebounded from the backlash of 2012. Its sales climbed 9.2 % to a record 917,500 units. Nissan and Honda also sold a record number of vehicles after posting declines in 2012.

Ford’s Focus was the best-selling car last year, while Great Wall’s Haval topped SUV sales. Chinese brands saw their combined market share at home shrink 1.6 percentage points to 40.3 percent, according to the auto group. Their exports dropped 7.5 percent, the first decline in five years, because of unstable overseas demand and insufficient competitiveness.

Via Bloomberg

by Aurel Niculescu (my Google+) - Thursday, January 9th, 2014 - filed under Industry, News, Sales Reports.

 

[shuttler]

China helps save the american auto industry!

 

[terranMarine]

China helps save the american auto industry!

Sadly the Japanese ones as well.

 

[bolo]

There are a number of changes in the way GDP is calculated。

For example，rental expenditure for self-owned properties will be calculated at market price rather than historical cost。The current GDP data put the value added of both owner- and tenant-occupied housing at an average of just Rmb1,868 a year or Rmb156 a month per household (both rural and urban). By contrast, US GDP data assumes about $1,200 a month per household.

R&D expenditure will be counted as capital formation，which added the US GDP by about 2.5%。



The System of National Accounts 2008 (2008 SNA) is the latest version of the international statistical standard for the national accounts, adopted by the United Nations Statistical Commission (UNSC).

The 2008 SNA is an update of the System of National Accounts, 1993 (1993 SNA). The update was in 2003 entrusted to the Intersecretariat Working Group on National Accounts (ISWGNA) to address issues brought about by changes in the economic environment, advances in methodological research and the needs of users.

The first seventeen chapters of the 2008 SNA comprising the accounting rules, the accounts and tables, and their integration were adopted by the UNSC in 2008; chapters 18 to 29, comprising the interpretations and extensions of the accounts and tables of the System, were adopted by the UNSC in 2009.

The 2008 SNA is the result of a process that was notable for its transparency and the wide involvement of the international statistical community, both of which were made possible by the innovative use of the project's website Towards 2008 SNA as a communication tool. In its adoption of the 2008 SNA the UNSC encouraged Member States, regional and sub-regional organizations to implement its recommendations and use it for the national and international reporting of national accounts statistics.

Being a conceptual framework, the 2008 SNA does not attempt to provide comprehensive compilation guidance on how to make estimates nor is it descriptive in setting priorities which accounts and tables should be implemented or expresses norms on the frequency and format of their presentation. For practical compilation guidance, international agencies have developed separate handbooks like the handbooks of national accounting prepared by the United Nations Statistics Division.

A number of research issues have emerged during the update of the 1993 SNA, but where more extensive consideration is needed than what was possible in the course of the update process. These issues are listed in Annex 4 of the 2008. More information on these and emerging research issues and recommendations on the outcome of the research can be found at under the Research agenda.

that's the biggest reason why it's being rigged. Now US can claim their economy grew 2+2.5=4.5%. I don't like the new method to be honest as there are room for manipulation, depending what you classify as R&D instead of actual expenditure as per IFRS guidelines, assuming they are following those guidelines.

Just like inflation numbers are rigged in the US and Canada to keep the inflation level at 4.5% instead of close to 10% as reported by Shadowstats. they achieved this by using substitution method, ie. if AAA steak has gone up 40% last year, than they will use low grade steak as substitution. If I remember correctly, fuel costs are not part of calcuation.

 

[shuttler]

Sadly the Japanese ones as well.

it is a good slap on the face of our auto engineers actually when our own cars only hold 40% of the markets

 

[beijingwalker]

China first to consume 20 million vehicles a year, annual sales rise by 14%
By Bloomberg | 10 Jan, 2014, 12.52AM IST

BEIJING: China became the first country in which more than 20-million vehicles were sold in any given year as Toyota Motor to General Motors and Volkswagen delivered a record number of cars there. Total deliveries rose 14% to 21.98-million units last year and may exceed 24 million in 2014, the state-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said on Thursday in Beijing. Last year's sales of passenger vehicles, excluding buses and commercial trucks, climbed to 17.93-million — or 15% more than the US auto industry — and may increase 9% to 11% this year, it said.

"As more and more big cities put in place restriction measures, automakers will have to count on smaller cities and inland areas for growth," said Harry Chen, a Shenzhen-based analyst with Guotai Junan Securities Co. "Local automakers will really need to bring on their A-game to compete with foreign joint ventures to survive."


GM, which counts China as its biggest market, saw sales climb 11 per cent to 3.16 million in the country last year. Though the Detroit-based carmaker outsold all foreign automakers in China for eight straight years, it may lose that lead when Volkswagen reports 2013 figures later this month. The Wolfsburg, Germany-based company surpassed its previous annual record by selling 2.96 million vehicles in the first 11 months. Ford, which got a late start in China, benefited from the popularity of its Focus car, helping the company post the biggest growth among major foreign automakers.

 

[beijingwalker]

Beijing has car plate lottery rule,you will be considered extremely lucky to get a permit to buy a car here.Shanghai is even more difficult,but that doesn't seem to affect car sale boom in China.