China and Iran: Destined to Clash?

[Surenas]

The above is total BS as Central Asians are Sunni, so religious fervor among them is bad news for Iran, just like it is in Afghanistan (Taliban).

Afghanistan isn't Central-Asian. Second, the author is wrong in the sense that Iran does not use political Islam in Central-Asia. For instance, in Tajikistan, a Sunni state, Iran uses its common Persian heritage. Being Shia is no problems for Tajiks when it comes to their relations with Iranians.

A Sino-Muslim alliance will work out great for China, if that Muslim includes both Shia and Sunni. Hopefully the Iranian theocracy would get the message and give up on their dream of Shia crescent empire and think instead of the greater interest of Sino-Muslim alliance. People need to see the bigger picture more and find a role for them in this bigger picture.

One thing the writer gets correctly is that China will project its power in the energy rich gulf region and the US will reluctantly accept its presence. So Iran should give up on India and lean more towards China, that will be good for all Muslims, Shia and Sunni.

I do not agree with a pan-Islamic bond with China. IMO countries should independently pursue their own interests, as the interests of various Islamic countries are in some cases adversary to each other.

 

[kalu_miah]

I like your post,but why give up(India) a business partner for another(China)?
Business relations with ALL is the way forward.

Business relation with all is good, as long as it does not include defense tech and security cooperation. What Iran is doing with Chah Bahar for example, giving strategic access to India to Afghanistan, that is the kind of business that Iran needs to stay away from, if it wants better alliance with China.

 

[Surenas]

Business relation with all is good, as long as it does not include defense tech and security cooperation. What Iran is doing with Chah Bahar for example, giving strategic access to India to Afghanistan, that is the kind of business that Iran needs to stay away from, if it wants better alliance with China.

Iran should balance the influence of powers in the region. China has already taken over Gwadar, no need for us to give Chahbahar to the Chinese as well. I'm quite content with India using this port to bring stability and economic prosperity to Afghanistan.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

That being said.. Iran reaching out to the west and if the response is positive we might see a thawing of relations and perhaps resumptions of cordial and friendly relations between them. Iran as such is raring to move beyond the rhetoric of the 79 revelution and if America recognized the Shah as an unjust ruler(it also dumped Saddam did it not?) then a lot of the bad blood would go away.

Iran was and is the most desirable Ally for the US due to its location, and given the chance American would shower Iran with gifts and concessions for even 1/20th of the goodwill shown by Pakistan. Because from Iran..the US can influence events in Pakistan(and essentially against the Chinese) much more securely and more importantly.. completely secure its oil supply route. It can also keep its interests in Iraq and all of GCC secure which will allow the US forces to solely focus on taking care of the Pakistan problem and acting against Chinese interests in the Middle East and Africa. The Iranians would rather have the US as good relations if not friends as it will severely damage the capacity of the GCC Arabs to act out their old Arab-Persian Rivalry plans.

The problem is that America is already allied to the Gulf Arabs and Israel, who they will never give up for Iran.

There is a reason that Senior US politicians sing "Bomb Iran", not Israel/UAE/Saudi.

 

[rmi5]

That being said.. Iran reaching out to the west and if the response is positive we might see a thawing of relations and perhaps resumptions of cordial and friendly relations between them. Iran as such is raring to move beyond the rhetoric of the 79 revelution and if America recognized the Shah as an unjust ruler(it also dumped Saddam did it not?) then a lot of the bad blood would go away.

Iran was and is the most desirable Ally for the US due to its location, and given the chance American would shower Iran with gifts and concessions for even 1/20th of the goodwill shown by Pakistan. Because from Iran..the US can influence events in Pakistan(and essentially against the Chinese) much more securely and more importantly.. completely secure its oil supply route. It can also keep its interests in Iraq and all of GCC secure which will allow the US forces to solely focus on taking care of the Pakistan problem and acting against Chinese interests in the Middle East and Africa. The Iranians would rather have the US as good relations if not friends as it will severely damage the capacity of the GCC Arabs to act out their old Arab-Persian Rivalry plans.

Iran need to have good relations with all powerful countries, and specially both USA, and China. btw, Arabs are not considered as an old rival for Iranians actually they have invaded our country when we were weak, That's it. nothing more or less. btw, USA has influence on Arabs, and having good relations with USA, may cause some pressures from US on arabs to be more civilized and act more civilized.

Iran should balance the influence of powers in the region. China has already taken over Gwadar, no need for us to give Chahbahar to the Chinese as well. I'm quite content with India using this port to bring stability and economic prosperity to Afghanistan.

I think we need to let both chinese and indians, and even russians, and others to use Chahbahar. we don't have any serious problems with India. we need to bring them all to Chahbahar to maximize our profit.

 

[kalu_miah]

Afghanistan isn't Central-Asian. Second, the author is wrong in the sense that Iran does not use political Islam in Central-Asia. For instance, in Tajikistan, a Sunni state, Iran uses its common Persian heritage. Being Shia is no problems for Tajiks when it comes to their relations with Iranians.

I do not agree with a pan-Islamic bond with China. IMO countries should independently pursue their own interests, as the interests of various Islamic countries are in some cases adversary to each other.

I didn't say Afghanistan is Central Asian. But some people consider it as such.

I know Tajiks get along with Persians, because of common ethno-linguistic roots. Iran is making investment in Tajikistan.

There is no Pan-Islamic bond with China, but rather the bond between China and Muslim countries is more because of geo-strategic accident. In South East Asia, China needs Indonesia on its side to counter balance hostile Vietnam and Philippines. In South Asia, China is allied with Pakistan and friendly with Bangladesh to counter balance India. And in the Mid-east and Africa its about energy and geo-strategic needs. It has nothing to do with Islam, if you see what I mean, Chinese care little about Islam or Muslims, but they do not have hate issues with Islam or Muslims like the West, Israel, India or even Russia. They are more pragmatic in my opinion, they will work with anyone if it is in their interest.

 

[Surenas]

Iran need to have good relations with all powerful countries, and specially both USA, and China. btw, Arabs are not considered as an old rival for Iranians actually they have invaded our country when we were weak, That's it. nothing more or less. btw, USA has influence on Arabs, and having good relations with USA, may cause some pressures from US on arabs to be more civilized and act more civilized.

And they tried again in 1980, and failed completely this time.

I think we need to let both chinese and indians, and even russians, and others to use Chahbahar. we don't have any serious problems with India. we need to bring them all to Chahbahar to maximize our profit.

I would normally agree with you, but economic interests do not always outweigh strategic interests. Chinese already have a huge influence in the region with their port in Gwadar. We should be careful to not give them too much of influence.

 

[SQ8]

The problem is that America is already allied to the Gulf Arabs and Israel, who they will never give up for Iran.

There is a reason Senior US politicians sing "Bomb Iran", not Israel/UAE/Saudi.

They sing it because of their requirements. Senators act on lobbies, and lobbies are payed for.
So essentially, it depends on the lobbyists. The Saudis pour billions into these while Israel has the Jewish population that supports the Zionist cause to pay for it.However, these lobbys do not control European ones and the US can ill afford a disengagement with the Europeans such as what happened in the Iraq war(except the 51st state thanks to Blair).

So the senators and congressmen must play a delicate balance of a gentle Iran while keeping their allies happy.
As such, they may seek to break up Iran in the same manner as they wish for Pakistan to carve out further territories. But realistically they would rather have a pacified Iran. Even Israel doesnt neccecarily need to stop bashing Iran even after peace overtures as it still needs a threat to justify spending on defence(It is after all a model democracy and accountable to its people). If Iran is to go pro US and shut up on Israel.. they will need to create another threat. Egypt might be a candidate but that is just conjecture...so Iran still had the role of Bogeyman to play. At the end, there will be NO conflict between Israel and Iran but it is quite likely the Middle east may be plunged into a "Muslim" Civil war with the GCC against the Iranians to essentially destabilize and devastate the area for future needs.

 

[rmi5]

And they tried again in 1980, and failed completely this time.



I would normally agree with you, but economic interests do not always outweigh strategic interests. Chinese already have a huge influence in the region with their port in Gwadar. We should be careful to not give them too much of influence.

 

[Surenas]

The problem is that America is already allied to the Gulf Arabs and Israel, who they will never give up for Iran.

Israel would always remain an ally of the US. Those PG Arab states on the other hand are more and more frustrated by the US and its policy in the Middle East.

 

[Pakistanisage]

The beauty of Chinese "Foreign Policy" is that it is guided by and is subservient to it's " Economic Policy" and not the other way around like in the case of the US. This is why China is not interested in entangling its horns with Nations with which it can develop Trade and import Raw Materials and Oil/Gas.

I see no serious threat of China Iran belligerence.

Not Gonna Happen , Kimo Savi....

 

[Shapur Zol Aktaf]

Amateuristic article.
Al-qaeda related Islamists in China have nothing with Shia Islam or Iran, even consider shia Islam as enemy. Also the article doesnt mention that Iran-China ties are thousands years old.
Iran has energy and China needs energy.

The article has to much Ifs, woulds, shoulds.

 

[Serpentine]

Why do we look only one sided? What is the necessity of Iran being in 'Russo-Chinese Club' or the 'America and Co.' club?
We can play the 'Brasil' role here, having good relations with both the west and east.

As long as U.S is blindly supporting Israel, don't get your hopes high on seeing a U.S-Iran alliance, that's more like a dream. We may see some improvement in the relations, but Iran is not going in the 'Western Club', the same way we are not in 'Eastern Club' right now, but we have very good relations with them.

 

[ResurgentIran]

Why do we look only one sided? What is the necessity of Iran being in 'Russo-Chinese Club' or the 'America and Co.' club?
We can play the 'Brasil' role here, having good relations with both the west and east.

As long as U.S is blindly supporting Israel, don't get your hopes high on seeing a U.S-Iran alliance, that's more like a dream. We may see some improvement in the relations, but Iran is not going in the 'Western Club', the same way we are not in 'Eastern Club' right now, but we have very good relations with them.

As the expression goes.: Neither East or West, only Iran. Faghat Iran.

 

[Hyperion]

Extremely far fetched to be precise!

Very far fetched.

That's because of lack of infrastructure. If anything, China can help boost that production, for the betterment of both nations. @T-123456 & @rmi5 are spot-on.

You get two things mixed up; T-123456 believed that Iran is one of the largest oil/gas producers, which is not correct. You mention the reserves, but these are two different things (reserves and production). Iran has the world largest gas reserves, but is the 4th largest producer. And most of the production (more than 90%) goes to internal consumption. Second, Iran has the 4th largest oil reserves, but is the 5th largest oil producer. And approx. 50% goes to internal consumption.

The exports lay behind Iran's potential.