Chengdu J-20 5th Generation Aircraft News & Discussions

[UKBengali]

China might not catch US any soon in term of GDP but as military spending, but our 150 billions military budget has equivalent effectiveness as US 650 billions defense budge, take example a 70000$ US salary of American ship welder, researcher, scientist doesn't necessary mean they will do 7 time better or faster than the 10000$ US salary Chinese counterparts, if our military procurement is 7x cheaper than US, you will expect that we can fill up with close to 2000 5th gen fighters and bomber as well, of course you can claim that you guys are more advanced technologically than us. for that I will give you credit until 2030 realistically.

Bro, these people commenting here about US superiority do not want China to progress and frankly have no clue about economics or geopolitics.

China is already the largest economy in the world in PPP and since it makes nearly everything itself, it's PPP is more a reflection of it's wealth than actual nominal GDP which is rigged in favour of the US economy due to dollar being the world reserve currency.

Will the dollar still be the world reserve currency in 2030? Chances are very slim as Chinese GDP in PPP will be at least twice as much as US by then and the Chinese will have caught up in virtually all areas of civilian and military technology. The current nominal size of GDP as far as China is concerned will be completely irrelevant by then.

The Chinese consumer market will be by far the largest as China will then have 4 times the amount of consumers that will have enough spending power to buy nearly whatever US consumers can buy. Will China not use this massive import market to shape world political allegiances to it's favour? You bet it will.

I can write a whole essay on this but have better things to do with my life. Best to ignore these detractors who come from a position of being anti-China and/or are simply ignorant in the topic they are commenting on.

 

[Deino]

Can we come back to the topic please !

Your discussion is already so far off in the middle of politics, economics and ideology ...

Deino

 

[Brainsucker]

Well, if you read their comments, you will notice that many of them were simply the trolls in the payroll who cannot be reasonated.

When people who are not familiar with the J-20 and hold some skepticism, we don't blame those people, but not those trolls who deliberately smear China's achievement and want to destroy the morale of the Chinese people.

Ah, so they're troll? Well, I hate trolls too.

 

[Beast]

Maybe what he doesn't has is the time to research for the data, not to reply in here.

Btw, let not compare China capability in aircraft making to another country. It will create unnecessary debate in here. Avicenna reaction is normal, because he's an American, and your comment spark his nationalism to argue. If it continue, it will derail this thread further.



Your language of accusing other people as traitor remind me of the Red Army from the cultural revolution era. You must aware that cultural revolution has ended long time ago. To have different thought about what engine that placed inside J-20 is normal, as everyone don't know about the truth.

So I guess if the reality is that J-20 use AL-31F, then people in CAC are traitors too?

Hi, it's not about opinion of differences. It's like about still arguing whether China has the ability to send man to space in 2017. Are you going to claim voicing opinion of China not able to conduct a manned mission to space is a freedom of opinion?

I guess you do not understand a single word of Chinese and not aware what's going on for J-20. Ask Chinesetiger1986 and asok what has pilot of J-20 talk regards to flying a J-20. If you think AL-31F of Russian import engine can bring magic to performance of J-20. Clearly these people are living in denial mode. I am not saying the engine cannot be Russian import but given the lack of news over any upgrade of AL-31F engine exported to China, not to mention the very poor financial state of Russian to conduct such expensive project. Such chances are very very low. China will not be stupid to finance Russian for such project given that they eaten the humble pie when regards to 38 IL-76 transport plane deal that you can hardly depend or held ransom by Russian promise.

 

[Brainsucker]

Hi, it's not about opinion of differences. It's like about still arguing whether China has the ability to send man to space in 2017. Are you going to claim voicing opinion of China not able to conduct a manned mission to space is a freedom of opinion?

I guess you do not understand a single word of Chinese and not aware what's going on for J-20. Ask Chinesetiger1986 and asok what has pilot of J-20 talk regards to flying a J-20. If you think AL-31F of Russian import engine can bring magic to performance of J-20. Clearly these people are living in denial mode. I am not saying the engine cannot be Russian import but given the lack of news over any upgrade of AL-31F engine exported to China, not to mention the very poor financial state of Russian to conduct such expensive project. Such chances are very very low. China will not be stupid to finance Russian for such project given that they eaten the humble pie when regards to 38 IL-76 transport plane deal that you can hardly depend or held ransom by Russian promise.

Well, I don't have any opinion about the J-20 engine. For me, either Al-31F or WS-10B are ok. If it's already use WS-10B, then, it's great. But if it still use AL-31F, then, I just have to wait for some time until they put a better engine in J-20. I'm open an minded person. I listen both sides and never take side on this matter (although sometime I have skepticism too) The things that I don't like is that people accuse other as traitor or CIA. Well, unless the CIA that you mean is Chinese Intelligence Agency (not Central Intelligence Agency), then I have no comment on it. But, like ChineseTiger1986, I don't like troll either.

 

[siegecrossbow]

China might not catch US any soon in term of GDP but as military spending, but our 150 billions military budget has equivalent effectiveness as US 650 billions defense budge, take example a 70000$ US salary of American ship welder, researcher, scientist doesn't necessary mean they will do 7 time better or faster than the 10000$ US salary Chinese counterparts, if our military procurement is 7x cheaper than US, you will expect that we can fill up with close to 2000 5th gen fighters and bomber as well, of course you can claim that you guys are more advanced technologically than us. for that I will give you credit until 2030 realistically.

That's not true. Recently it has been revealed that each J-15 costs around 400 million yuan, and the cost will only increase as AESA and 5th gen avionics are included with block 2 models. I can't imagine that the J-20, J-16, and J-10B/C are less expensive.

 

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

That's not true. Recently it has been revealed that each J-15 costs around 400 million yuan, and the cost will only increase as AESA and 5th gen avionics are included with block 2 models. I can't imagine that the J-20, J-16, and J-10B/C are less expensive.

I just give an example to illustrate that the defense budged ratio doesn't mean that US will 7x better than China, Chinese military professional, soldiers are less paid than US counterpart including military procurement, we have already make a lot of saving for defense budget with just labor salary so for China to catch up US will not be an issue if China allocate the same GDP % on defense as US.

Sure J-20 is not cheap but ask US company Boeing and Chengdu to compete, surely we can built more with the same amount of money...maybe not as 7x times as I claimed initially.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

That's not true. Recently it has been revealed that each J-15 costs around 400 million yuan, and the cost will only increase as AESA and 5th gen avionics are included with block 2 models. I can't imagine that the J-20, J-16, and J-10B/C are less expensive.

What cost is that? Because if it's incremental unit cost rather than total cost (unit + program amortization), then it seems outlandish. 400M Yuan is 60M USD nominal and 115M USD at PPP (the more accurate figure). In contrast, an F-22 costs 140M USD marginal unit / 340M USD unit + amortization.

 

[Deino]

Can we please leave that OT-F-35-discussion out !

 

[Asoka]

Leave the cost of J-20 out of the discussions, folks. It is quite meaningless. If J-20 cost twice of a J-15 or J-11, you still need a well trained pilot for each plane. A good pilot is not cheap to train.

So you are better off with a smaller number of a very good plane, versus a large number of not so good planes.

China is still a very poor country, for sure. But money is not what is lacking, or a limiting factor in producing massive number of J-20. The limiting factor is the ability of China to produce reliable engine components for the WS-15 engines.

50 J-20 per year, means 100 WS-15 per year. Can Liming Engine Factory produce 100 WS-15 right now? I will continue keep doubting it, until I see some definite proofs.

The good news is China has already invested a lot of money into this.

It will take time to iron out all the production problems. As some wisemen said, the devil is lurking in the details.

The only proof, that this problem is finally solved, is having hundreds of WS-15, in service, for several years, accumulating tens of thousands of flying hours.

And then we will know, fore sure.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Leave the cost of J-20 out of the discussions, folks. It is quite meaningless. If J-20 cost twice of a J-15 or J-11, you still need a well trained pilot for each plane. A good pilot is not cheap to train.

So you are better off with a smaller number of a very good plane, versus a large number of not so good planes.

China is still a very poor country, for sure. But money is not what is lacking, or a limiting factor in producing massive number of J-20. The limiting factor is the ability of China to produce reliable engine components for the WS-15 engines.

50 J-20 per year, means 100 WS-15 per year. Can Liming Engine Factory produce 100 WS-15 right now? I will continue keep doubting it, until I see some definite proofs.

The good news is China has already invested a lot of money into this.

It will take time to iron out all the production problems. As some wisemen said, the devil is lurking in the details.

The only proof, that this problem is finally solved, is having hundreds of WS-15, in service, for several years, accumulating tens of thousands of flying hours.

And then we will know, fore sure.

The WS-15 is under mass production since 2016.

https://www.sohu.com/a/165963734_421184

 

[Asoka]

The WS-15 is under mass production since 2016.

https://www.sohu.com/a/165963734_421184

I am sure Liming could produce a considerable number of WS-15, right now, but could it produce 100 engines per year, right now. I will have to wait for evidences.

If I see a massive number of J-20 in the next few years, then I will believe it.

The problem is rejection rate. To produce a engine blade, it takes around 3 months. Each blade must be near perfect.

And if you have a rejection rate of 30%, right now, that means one third of the effort and parts will be wasted, if you start mass production. So one should wait, until the manufacturing process is hammered out.

 

[name]

How can a country of only 200 years history to compete with a a country of 5000 years civilized history in long term? We shall have confidence in ourself. Let them trolling and we doing our work.

It's not making sense to compare F22 with J20, cause the production line of F22 had been closed 7years ago.

exactly.
yes.
great.

 

[Deino]

The WS-15 is under mass production since 2016.

https://www.sohu.com/a/165963734_421184

Pardon to re-ask again, but isn't this report not one again based on that TV-report that

1. did not specificly say the J-20 IS powered by the WS-15, but only by a "Chinese engine" ?
2. was soon removed ??

And 3. "Sohu" is IMO far from an official source: So its again and again the re-post of that old report?

Deino

 

[rcrmj]

The WS-15 is under mass production since 2016.

https://www.sohu.com/a/165963734_421184

the test hasnt been finalized yet, how come it has started mass production???

Pardon to reastk again, but isn't this report not one again based on that TV-report that

1. did not specificly say the J-20 IS powered by the WS-15, but only by a "Chinese engine" ?
2. was soon removed ??

And 3. "Sohu" is IMO far from an official source: So its again and again the re-post of that old report?

Deino

for projects like H-20, SSBNs, WS-15 and 5th gen fighters, "official" reports are only becoming "reliable" when the thing is actually out with clear pictures, and doing all the "physicall maneuvers" infront of naked eyes or "amature camera lenses"```until then, just treat them as bedtime stories```````