Thanks for your quick reply and more questions. Questions help me dig deeper and clarify my thoughts.
Why is China still making WS-10B/IPE engines to equip the J-20 and Flankers, if they got a more powerful WS-15?
Here is what I think:
1.) WS-15 is a new engine, which will still have its own issues and problems, years down the lines. WS-10 is already in service and matured.
2.) Being J-20's intended engine, equipping J-20 will be WS-15 highest priority. All other planes who want it, will have to wait after the orders for J-20 was satisfied.
3.) Because WS-15 is using new materials and new manufacturing process to boost it's Thrust. It will have production issue, to produces enough acceptable blades and other components, for a long time to come. Because the Compressor and Turbine, must be near perfect, the rejection rate for WS-10 blades are as high as 70%. That is for every 100 blades produced, only 30 will be accepted, or for every bladed installed, 3.33 blades will be rejected or wasted.
So, this production rate for WS-15 will be limited by this engine blade production rate. It will not be produced hundreds of copies per year, in the beginning.
And production rate of J-20, will be limited, by its engine production rate. The low production rate, (in the dozens, instead of hundreds, per year), of J-20, in coming years, will be a strong signal, that China has not totally mastered, the reliable production of WS-15.
4.) So, there will be no excessive WS-15 engine production capacity, for other airplanes, in the forceable future.
5.) Finally, because, WS-15, is a much more powerful engine, the airframes of J-10 and Flankers, must be redesigned and greatly strengthen, to handle this extra power, and the Digital Flight control system must be reprogrammed to incorporated this new engine.
And the planes, must be re-tested, all over again, like a brand new plane.
So, it is unlikely, that CAC will stop production of WS-10, and wait for WS-15 to equip the new J-10 and Flankers, coming down the production lines.
It will not be as simple as poop the new WS-15, into the new J-10 and Flankers, and tighten a few screws.
"It all makes no sense; Your thrust calculation makes no sense, the timeline does not fit for a regular engine esp. if other engines of lower thrust still have issues and most of all it's technically impossible."
So do your own very simple calculations, based on the method, I have shown, and see what numbers, you will come up with.
You don't have to post the result, if you think, it will embarrass you, and ruin your professional Journalist reputation. You can just do it, for your own benefit.
Look at the bright side.
If J-20, is using WS-15 ,and its thrust range is 180kN-210kN, not 160kN-180kn, as we previously believe, whoever report, this finding, first, on the mass medias outlets or website or newspaper or journal, will astonish the world.
He will be widely quoted and interviewed, for this military/aviation intelligence of the decade. And he will get a shot of world-wide-fame.
He will be laugh at, and disbelieved, at first, of course, but he will carefully present his simple, but solid calculations, to back him up.
I read a report that J-20 will be publicly display, on the ground in China, later this year. People will have a chance to take a close look at its engine.
So, potentially, journalists, have a six months window, to break this story, first, and astonish the world.
I agreed that +210kN upper range estimate is "iff", but the lower range of 180kN, is likely to be exceeded.
Because, to get a total thrust of 180kN, J-20 needs to have a flying weight of 22 tons (20 tons, empty weight + 2 tons of fuel, or some combinations like that)
It is incredible for J-20's empty weight, to be the same as F-22, despite its a much larger plane, with body length 3-4 meters longer.
And its also incredible, that any general will allow, his brand new 20 tons plane, to take off, with only 2 tons of fuel. I wouldn't allow a 10 tons plane, like F-16 to take off, with just 2 tons of fuel.
If it crashed, because of running out of fuel, its career ending, court martial, offense.
So, I stand with my estimate of 180kN - 210kN+ max. thrust range for WS-15.
It's likely to be higher than 210kN, because flying weight (26 tons) for this estimate, based the empty weight estimate of 22 tons and fuel of 4 tons, is still on the conservative side, IMO.