Can Pakistan become another Asian tiger

[miroslav]

A nations economy depends more on that nation's policies other than the business and trade.

For example after 1974 Indian nuke tests Pakistani leaders said that we will leave by eating grass if necessary but we will make the bomb.

With this attitude we saw Pakistan in last 30 years.

Now under the regime of Gen.Musharraf and Mr.Aziz Pakistan is improving very well b'coz they have set up the policies accordingly. Especially Mr.Aziz is related to commerce so he understands what is more important than the bomb.

If we see the last few years of Pakistan then the situation was not inviting the foriegn investors and till date many things havent changed.

Whereas Indian Government created the situations and a very good platform for investors. Apart from this India has a huge educated and cheaper manpower compared to the West.

India created and promoted Industrial Zones in every state. Developed zones like NOIDA which attracted the foriegn investors.

Whereas in Pakistan where people rallied in the backing of Taliban, KFC outlets attacked and Danier Pearl killing incedents stopped the investors to go in and invest.

If Pakistan really want to become a bully they should setup and make platforms for good investment potentials. Should shut the mouths of Mullah's and self proclaims leaders of Islam.

Good Education infrastructure which will create a good educated manpower. Good infrastructure like roads,Electricity and transporation.

But to be very honest who knows what will come after the 2007 general elections?

Best of Luck

Miro

 

[Neo]

Originally posted by Yahya@Nov 25 2005, 03:19 PM
Pakistans economy is also growing fast and faster then indias!

Yahya,

Let the patriotism not get us so we go totally blind and unfocused!
Indian economy is stable and one of the fastest growing and future looks bright for them. India has recorded 5.5% growth during last decade which is much higher than we can say about our economy which was declining in the nineties!!!

As for Pakistan, we've indeed recorded 8.4% growth last year, much of it is becoz of the good moonsoon we had but growth in industrial sector and exports has been impressive. Current GDP stands at $110 billion and will reach $116 billion next year.

Our economy has recorded 3 successive years of moderate to high growth and its expected to grow another 6.0-6.5% depending on the fuelprices and the impact of EQ in Kashmir.
But still we cannot claim that our economy is better than India or second fastest growing in the world yet...
We need atleast three consecutive years with that growth rate to have a valid claim.

 

[EagleEyes]

Miro,

Pakistan has been developing currently and been developing with a very fast pace. As many people have above mentioned that Pakistan has made a record of more than 8% of the GDP, and obviously we will not be able to keep it at 8%, so it is very likely that we will be seeing the growth some where at 6~ in the future.

Regarding forming and settling the issues in Pakistan for better growth in the future and also take care of inflation is being done. These kind of things take time, and it took India too, but there has been some conflicts and the worst one currently is The Earth Quake, once we settle this issue, the government will once again move to the pattern of making the economy better.

Other conflicts are of some radical Mullahs, who in my opinion dont have any freaking knowledge regarding the subject of foriegn investments nor economy as a whole, so they are doing their best to damage the foriegn investments in the name of attacking U.S, the most stupid thing is that they relate these kind of things with war on terror and holy war, which what they claim.

Not just that, the sad thing is that some of the people are even following them, in which most of the people are educated from Madarsas, the education of Madarsas i would rate it at 4 out of 10 in teaching the modern aspects of the world. To bring their power down there is been lot of efforts from the government recently, and this stuff has been decreased vastly, and no doubt we will continue to improve as people(who damaging the economy) will try to understand the differences between the better and wrong, and to explain them is a work of every Pakistani out there in my beloving homeland.

Regards,
Ahsan F.

 

[Sharjeel]

Originally posted by sigatoka+Nov 26 2005, 02:01 PM--><div class='quotetop'>QUOTE(sigatoka &#064; Nov 26 2005, 02:01 PM)</div><div class='quotemain'>Any country that can maintain growth of over 6% annually can be considered a tiger economy.

Therefore FDI has to be encouraged in all industries and sectors. All ownership restrictions on Factories, telecoms, airlines, ports, utilities should be immediately lifted.

[post=3774]Quoted post[/post]​

[/b]

a: thats what i mean...these guys doent understand lol...

b: pakistan is opening up considerably look at the telecom industry for example...

<!--QuoteBegin-miroslav@Nov 26 2005, 02:29 PM
If we see the last few years of Pakistan then the situation was not inviting the foriegn investors and till date many things havent changed.

Whereas Indian Government created the situations and a very good platform for investors.

Miro

[post=3780]Quoted post[/post]​

[/quote]

and this is what the minitry of privatisation has to say..

Recent Progress

During the period from November 2002 to November 2005 privatisation proceeds of Rs. 264.480 billion have been realized from 33 transactions. The Privatisation Commission in order to ensure participation of the small investors and benefit from the privatisation programme also sold GOP shareholding in NBP, POL, ARL, DG Khan Cement, OGDCL, SSGC, PIA, PPL, UBL and KAPCO through Capital Market. Some of the major transactions completed are:

a) Sale of 51% of GOP stake in HBL for Rs. 22.409 billion

b ) Sale of 26% shares of PTCL for Rs. 155.0 billion

c) Sale of GOP share holding in KESC for Rs. 20.240 billion

d) Sale of shares of Pakarab Fertilizers Rs. 14.125 billion

e) Sale of shares of National Refinery Ltd for Rs. 16.415
billion

f) Sale of GOP shareholding in POL, ARL and D.G Khan
Cement through Stock Exchange for Rs. 5.862 billion.

g) Divestment of 30% shares of Bank Al-Falah for Rs. 620
million.

h) Sale of Management Rights of ICP-SEMF for Rs. 787
million

i) Divestment of 13.2% shares of National Bank of Pakistan
for Rs. 1.386 billion

j) Sale of Associated Cement, Rohri for Rs. 255 million

k) Sale of 5% ordinary shares of Oil & Gas Development
Company Limited (OGDCL) through Capital Market for Rs.
6.851 billion.

l) Sale of Thatta Cement for Rs. 794 million

m) Sale of Mustehkam Cement Limited for Rs. 3,205 million

n) Sale of 10% shares of Sui Southern Gas Limited for Rs.
1.734 billion through Capital Market

o) Sale of shares of Kohinoor Oil Mills Limited for Rs. 80.7
million

p) Sale of 5.8% shares of PIA for Rs. 1.1 billion through
Capital Market

q) Sale of 15% shares of Pakistan Petroleum Limited (PPL)
through Capital Market for Rs. 5.5 billion

r) Sale of the Falleti’s Hotel, Lahore for Rs. 1.211 billion

s) 10% additional shares of Kohat Cement for Rs. 40.8 million

t) Sale of 20% shares of Kot Addu Power Company through
Capital Market for Rs. 4.604 billion

u) Sale of 4.22% shares of UBL through Capital Market for
Rs. 1.040 billion

v) Sale of Carrier Telephone Industries for Rs. 500.0 million

w) Sale of International Advertising (Pvt) Limited for Rs. 5.117
million

x) Sale of Bolan Textile Mills for Rs. 128.0 million

y) Additional shares of United Industries for Rs. 7.7 million

http://www.privatisation.gov.pk/about/Progress-in-PC-new.htm


Shauket has been a very good CEO for pakistan akistanFlag: akistanFlag:

he is good because he was in line for the CEO position in the citibank&#33; and was a director in Citibank&#33;&#33;&#33;&#33;


Generals organisational skills and shaukets skills with mony have indeed been a good combination..we should add another level to militry..the president and each commander of either navy, airforce or army should get a 4 year presidency after a 4 year command of their respective service and they should be choosen (between the army, navy and PAF) by a national ballot. and a tri service anti fraud and curroption board should be set up with 5 year in maximum security prison in a locked cell or 10 years frontline service as a NCO as a punishment in siachin (in addition to publicaly making them bald and stamping their forehead with a KAFIR stamp)

and a priminister should have certain qualifications and experience like shauket to apply for the seat. not any tom dick and harry...we the people pay for these guys and we expect a qualified person.

 

[Sharjeel]

Originally posted by Neo@Nov 26 2005, 08:00 PM
Yahya,

Let the patriotism not get us so we go totally blind and unfocused&#33;
Indian economy is stable and one of the fastest growing and future looks bright for them. India has recorded 5.5% growth during last decade which is much higher than we can say about our economy which was declining in the nineties&#33;&#33;&#33;

As for Pakistan, we&#39;ve indeed recorded 8.4% growth last year, much of it is becoz of the good moonsoon we had but growth in industrial sector and exports has been impressive. Current GDP stands at &#036;110 billion and will reach &#036;116 billion next year.

Our economy has recorded 3 successive years of moderate to high growth and its expected to grow another 6.0-6.5% depending on the fuelprices and the impact of EQ in Kashmir.
But still we cannot claim that our economy is better than India or second fastest growing in the world yet...
We need atleast three consecutive years with that growth rate to have a valid claim.

[post=3805]Quoted post[/post]​

i know...i am sultan/shah/president/ceo of PAKeconomist.com

also...yeh we can call pakistan the second fastest...at the least untill this years info is released.

the problem in the 90s was the political termoil and also ganja and bhuto latter of which has £15 million property portfolio on england&#33; where did she get all the mony from :reading1: . and now that politics has somewhat stabelised and improved a considerable amount pakistan can see a good decade. i doent see why the peoples of pakistan would not vote for shauket again...i mean look at tony and he predicts another term..pakistans priminister has no such problems.

 

[sigatoka]

It seems Foreign Reserves is very misunderstood. I dont know about you guys, but my "well-being" is not dictated by the amount of gold and cash stowed away under my mattress but by my yearly consumption. My yearly consumption is dictated by my yearly income. Therefore "well-being" of a person can be improved by increasing income; the amount of gold and cash under the mattress.

My point is this, the well being of a nation is not dictated by the amount of Foreign Reserves of Foreign currencies and Gold buried somewhere underneath Karachi but by the GDP of the nation. (GDP is the income or consumption of the nation.)

So Is Foreign Reserves Useless?? The Role of the Foreign Reserve and hence its size should be dictated by one purpose only, to maximise long term GDP growth i.e. to maximise the income growth of the nation.

Maximising Foreign Reserves is not a new concept, infact it is known as Merchantalism and was practiced extensively in the 17th Century. In this model a nation sought to export much more than it imported and hence would accumulate Gold (Foreign Reserves.) The Problem with this concept should be intuitive, how the hell does gold or foreign currencies improve our lives, you cant eat it, drive it or live in it. And Pursing such a policy too far results in hyperinflation which forces the nations reserves down by reducing exports and increasing imports.

Having said all this I support a slightly undervalued Pakistani currency. What does this mean?? In practical terms it means that I support the Pakistani central bank purchasing a hundred million dollars worth of U.S. Treasury Bonds which deflates the Pakistani Currency and Increases Foreign Reserves. (The U.S. Tresury Bonds are Foreign Reserves and might be stored underground in Karachi, not sure)

Why do i support this?? Because by deflating currency, Pakistani exports become more competitive, more is exported and higher employment is achieved. So is this the majic trick?? Buy more tresaury bonds and export ourselves out of Poverty?? Not really, because no matter how competitive our exports become, there are supply constraints. This means that given the number of factories and workers only so much can be produced. The fact that our exports become cheaper dont change this. Buy too many treasury bonds (foreign reserves) to deflate currency and increasing exports to boost GDP results in High inflation due to supply constraints (limited no. of people and factories) and which reduces competitivness of goods and reduces exports and imports.

If the Central Bank didnt intervene in the foreign exchange market, the value of the currency would be determined by market forces and reserves wouldnt go up or down by one cent in a year. Therefore the Guy who said that India has increased foreign reserves so much and we should be in awe of them; the fact of the matter is that there is also an opportunity cost of holding too much reserves. It could be used to upgrade infrastructure which Manhomann Singh proposed some time ago.

Ok i said that my well being is not dictated by the amount of gold and cash under my mattress and yet i still do. Why? Coz to purchase goods and services we use gold and Cash. Therefore Pakistan does need Foreign Exchange coz when we buy Korean Cars we dont buy them in Pakistani dollars but in South Korean Dollars. Therefore we only really need as much Foreign Reserves to sufficiently cover around six month imports. Increasing Foreign Reserves might boost GDP due to extra exports but also has opportunity cost in that the money may be used to upgrade infrastructure. Devauling the currency is subject to diminshing rates of return, that is the first 10% deval. boosts exports more than the next 10% coz of inflation.


I strongly disagree with the Indian dude who said that Pakistan&#39;s problem was something other than trade and investment. Given a choice between peace with India with no economic reforms against high tension with India with lots of economic reforms i would choose High tension economic reforms. This is an artificial choice coz peace and Economics are both achievable, i wish only to make my point.

India currently is in an interesting situation. Its govt. is centre left and depends on extreme left wing communists. In India the Extreme Left is screaming for more Govt investment in Eduation, Roads, Ports, Electricity and so on while being dead set against the Centre lefts proposal for increasing foreign investment and liberalising trade and reforming the inflexible and backward labour laws.

Therefore India is neither making significant investments in edu., health, roads that the communists want while not moving fast enough on labour reforms, foreign investment and trade as the Congress party wants. This Mili Juli Sarkar is resulting in very slow reforms.

In pakistan Foreign investment has been decisviely overhauled with massive investments, and stakes by foreign firms in Pakistan. This has tremendous benefits on employment, national income, and much more importantly introduces cutting edge management techniques to Pakistan and results in a lot of informal technology transfer. Even in Pakistan the lefts concerns for roads, eduction, and health are not being fully met. This does not matter as much because of decisive reforms in other areas.

 

[Sid]

Just to add my two cents to it. A sound For-Ex reserve goes a long way in securing investor confidence in a country. It is in a way also related to show that urgent debts owed by the government could be serviced using the For-Ex reserves in an emergency situation.

 

[Neo]

ISLAMABAD, March 11: The government faces serious financial and technical constraints to achieve its long-term economic objectives, including increasing the current &#036;104 billion GDP to &#036;700 billion by 2030.

A draft of “Approach Paper on Strategic Directions to Achieve Vision 2030”, a copy of which was obtained by Dawn, stresses that the current low tax-to-GDP ratio will have to be improved substantially to overcome the constraints for improving financial, scientific, technical and human resources to increase the present per capita income of &#036;780 to &#036;3,000 in the next 25 years.

The approach paper enlists five major challenges which need to be addressed to achieve Vision 2030 goals: better education, easy access to justice, affordable and good health care, improved governance and management of the institutions.

The paper, prepared by the Planning Commission, recognizes risks and limitations in attempting to define the way of life in 2030 and appreciates nature, diversity and enormity of the challenges. “The process requires consistent inputs from all stakeholders, including various tiers of the government, civil society as well as a broad range of experts.”

Talking about institutions of the state and government, the paper says that as the scale of economic activity expands, better institutions will become absolutely necessary. “It is now well-recognized that governments are inefficient and opaque not because they do not know any better or it is expensive to achieve this, but because vested interest or creators and power centres want them to be so.”

“At the national level, a critical consensus has developed that no reforms or restructuring can be successful, and no vision will be achieved, unless a major change is brought about in the competence and quality of public servants. Extensive administrative reforms, improved service structures and opportunities for growth, which attract and retain good persons, and establishing better interaction across tiers of the government and as well as its various organs will, therefore, be an essential part of the vision exercise,” it adds.

In this regard, the paper says that the most difficult exercise in vision planning and forecasting will be to propose practical measures needed to improve, stabilize and even reinvent the institutions of civil service, legislature, judiciary and security.

The revival of private sector investment is major element of the Vision 2030 in an environment of deregulation, liberalization and privatization. Notwithstanding, a host of tax concessions and incentives provided to the private sector, it remains shy and fails to make investment in the domestic economy of the right quality and quantity. On the other hand, the private sector is inhibited in its investment initiatives by diverse factors such as high prices of utilities, a plethora of administrative barriers to investment such as corruption, red tape and higher costs of inputs.

The paper opposes the privatization of state assets and says: “The Privatization of strategic assets in energy, especially in the context of looming energy shortages in the world market and different countries trying to control the world supplies, may have to be re-examined. Separation of ownership from responsible corporate management practices must be reinforced.”

It also believes that a major increase in public expenditure will be required to enhance the scale and quality of education in general and the scale and quality of scientific/technical education in Pakistan in particular. The present public expenditure of 2.6 per cent of GDP is still lower than the minimum four per cent recommended by the Unesco.

http://www.dawn.com/2006/03/12/ebr2.htm

 

[Neo]

Pakistan becomes most &#39;surprising economic success story&#39;: Newsweek


ISLAMABAD (March 22 2006): Pakistan has been described as the "most surprising economic success story," by prestigious Newsweek magazine as Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz told the publication the government will continue the reforms to sustain its phenomenal economic growth and face the challenges of globalisation head-on.

In its latest issue, Newsweek talked to the prime minister on the country&#39;s expanding economy and also published a two-page article titled "Promise in Pakistan" to explain how the country, that was once isolated internationally and in the grip of deep recession, made a turnaround in the last six years.

The publication introduced the prime minister as a veteran of international banking, who, it added, has been the architect of Pakistan&#39;s remarkable economic recovery ever since he joined President Pervez Musharraf&#39;s government in 1999.

In his interview to the magazine, Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz said that Pakistan&#39;s precarious financial situation - high fiscal deficits and debt levels, no money to pay next month&#39;s oil import bill, etc - prompted the government to start an aggressive reform agenda six years ago.

"So we started ensuring fiscal discipline, containing expenditures and increasing income. We focused on investment and growth. We bit many bullets to restore credibility. The fundamentals of reform were deregulation, liberalisation and privatisation," he added.

The prime minister said foreign investors&#39; interest in Pakistan today was very strong and this year foreign investment would be the highest in Pakistan&#39;s history, at close to three billion dollars.

"There are opportunities in agribusiness, Information Technology, telecom, software, hotels, engineering goods and infrastructure. We see Pakistan as a hub for many multinationals," he added.

The report "Promise in Pakistan" began with a Lahore-based Iqbal Ahmed, who was a depressed businessman in late 1990s with his modest, liquefied-petroleum gas operation didn&#39;t seem to be going anywhere.

"I used to get up and say, &#39;What the hell, it&#39;s another day&#39;," he recalls. "Now I can&#39;t wait for the day to begin. I see a very bright future."

Ahmed has good reason to be optimistic. Two years ago he signed a deal with Houston&#39;s Hanover Energy Co that has helped transform his LPG extraction plant into the largest and most efficient in Pakistan, with revenues last year of 130 million dollars.

Backed by several international investors, Ahmed has bid some 400 million dollars to buy a controlling interest in Southern Sui Gas, one of two state-owned gas production and distribution companies that are being privatised.

And he recently signed a memorandum of understanding with Excelerate Energy of Houston to import liquefied natural gas into Pakistan in supertankers.

"We&#39;re enjoying a sea change in economic conditions and opportunities," Ahmed, 60, told the Newsweek. "Pakistan is open for business."

The report cites Pakistan&#39;s impressive macroeconomic indicators to highlight the growing business environment in the country.

Last year, the country&#39;s Gross Domestic Product growth rate hit 8.4 percent, the world&#39;s second highest behind China, following two years of solid six percent growth. This year the economy is predicted to expand by nearly seven percent.

"After years of instability...a true middle class is now developing. Economic reforms have given the government money to invest in health and education, and foreign investors are eyeing Pakistan for the first time.

"In many ways the country has become the world&#39;s most surprising economic success story," the report said.

The report describes Pakistan&#39;s rising economy as a "heady turnaround" for a nation that, in the late 1990s, was practically a failed state with near-zero GDP growth.



http://www.brecorder.com/index.php?id=4009...&term=&supDate=

 

[Neo]

KARACHI (March 21 2006): President General Pervez Musharraf has said the government is fully encouraging the foreign direct investment (FDI) and foresaw the total export would reach &#036;18 billion during the current fiscal year.

Speaking as chief guest at the Textile Asia 2006 Exhibition Gala Dinner at the Governor house here on Monday, he said the policy of deregulation was paying dividends, as a result the country has witnessed unprecedented foreign investment.

The President said during the last six years the economy has been transformed into a vibrant and dynamic state. The GDP, which was 60 to 65 billion dollars, is now touching the &#036;135 billion mark.
"We have achieved a record growth rate of 8.4 percent during the last fiscal year and was expecting 7 percent this year," he added.

The President, welcoming foreign delegates, said Pakistan had provided a very attractive environment for investment. He said the profit margin in Pakistan is much higher. He said 600 to 700 foreign companies are doing business in Pakistan and earning 30 to 60 percent profits and some of them even earned up to 80 percent.

He said infrastructure is being developed and cited the development of ports, highways and roads in this regard.

The President was extremely upbeat on the vast opportunities that Pakistan is offering to foreign investors and looked forward to increasing inflow of FDIs.

He said the FDI had grown by 500 percent over the last five years. This flow of FDI would continue in future, he hoped.

He said an upsurge in the country&#39;s export has been witnessed due to privatisation, deregulation and liberalisation. He declared through the process of production, extension and value-addition, even bigger achievements in the export field will going to take place.

He was of the opinion that foreign investment creates jobs for people and eliminates poverty.

The President appreciated organisers for holding the Textile Asia 2006 Exhibition. He also lauded efforts of the textiles minister Mushtaq Ali Cheema, Sindh governor Dr Ishratul Ibad, Chief Minister Dr Arbab Ghulam Rahim, Sindh minister for industries Muhammad Adil Siddiqui and all others in making the event a success.

Speaking on the occasion, Sindh governor Dr Ishratul Ibad Khan said the participation of foreign delegates in the exhibition indicate the growing confidence of foreign investors in the Pakistan&#39;s economy.

He said 1250 acres of land has been given to set up Textile City in Karachi, which will create employment opportunities for the people.

He assured the province of Sindh would do its best to provide even more incentives for investment here.

Textiles minister Mushtaq Ali Cheema, speaking on the occasion, said the country under the leadership of President General Pervez Musharraf was witnessing an economic upswing and the contribution of textile sector to the GDP had increased while it maintained its position as the backbone in the economy.

 

[sigatoka]

What Pakistan needs is privatisation of all government corporate entities, total removal of all quotos on imports, slashing of all import excise duty, removal of ALL restrictions on investment within Pakistan (modelled on NZ) whether it be purchase of residential property, purchase of business or building of factories.

The government would then be able to focus on its core tasks of enforcing law and order, destroying monopolies and market collusion, subsidizing education, and roads and so forth.

Pakistan will then grow at ten percent a year instead of the 7 percent it manages now.

 

[Hafizzz]

Pakistan is an Asian Tiger !!!

 

[Cow(ard)Boy]

Pakistan just like India and China possesses huge ability to be the asian tiger,but i personally feel that its leaders aren't good enough,sorry if i am wrong.
But yes Pakistan certainly is in the race to be the Asian tiger.
And good luck to Pak for that.

 

[Frankenstein]

^^Its a 5 years old news, when Pakistan was progressing immensely, but now we have Zardari, we also have to feed him

 

[Imran Khan]

until PPP here no way in mushy time we was asian cat now zardari time we are asian mouse and in future bilawal time we will be asian ant

like this