Can India's PAD and AAD ABM systems effective against pakistans missiles?

[suleman yousaf]

Well a few things can make PAD and AAD useless.For example:
1.MIRV our missiles.There are news that Shaheen 2 is MIRVed but no one can confirm it because such news it kept strictly confidential.But NESCOM promises that Shaheen 3(under development) is certainly MIRVed.

2.Add stealthy features to it like in RA"AD and Babur.I know that it is difficult but the world is a witness that the Pakis can do unbelievable feats.

3.Make them able to do extreme evasive maneuvers.This is very problematic for the existing ABM systems.

4.Make the missiles able to carry a large number of decoys and other ABM counter measurements.

P.S[Im no expert at missile technology owing to the fact that im just an O level student.In my opinion sending a Pakistani missile is going to solve many queries and end the confusion(IM not responsible if it really happens)].

 

[nightcrawler]

The terminal stage of the missile, the warhead does have terminal guidance capability. Its not known whether Pakistan possesses such technology yet. This does somewhat complicate things a bit.
On a lighter note, there's only one way to find it out! Send one to India and lets see.
Disclaimer: We shall not be responsible for the consequences that will follow.
ps: there are two ways this could go

Its not the terminal guidance of warheads that complicates thing but true MIRV missile do have ECM shields & decoys accompanying each warhead which complicates the things, furthermore the ejection of each warhead at different locations can't be anticipated beforehand that also lowers the probability of neutralizing them
View attachment 701c3de583bb4407db2daec30987ed65.jpg

 

[aanamehra]

In image ur showing MIRV missile .....
thats a big dream of ur nation ... but rather shahhen3 ur shahhen 2is also not ready so how can u us MIRV in ur picture. to show that ur missiles can defend indian shield in 1-2 years indian missile shield become that much successful that it can stop each and every missile from ur nation .. and for ur reply u have nothing.. so thing deep about it.

 

[prithwidw]

Can India's PAD and AAD ABM systems effective against pakistans missiles?

No, not yet.

 

[su-47]

Lets face it, no ABM shield to date is 100% effective. In fact, I would say, most are not even 50% effective.

Leaving the MIRVs aside for the moment, if Pak decided to launch all its missiles at India, our cities WILL be hit. PAD/AAD will shoot down a few missiles, but won't be able to take on all of them, especially the cruise missiles.

One solution to minimise damage is the most dastardly one. A devastating first strike that will cripple enemy nuclear capabilities, leaving them with very few missiles and warheads, which an ABM defence can take on. And this is the reason why USA and USSR had so many nukes. So that in case of escalating war, they could use enough nukes to decimate the other, and reduce the nuclear retaliation.

In Indo-Pak scenario, India has a no first-use policy. But I often wonder if this policy is wise. To put it very brutally, the best Indian defence against Pakistani nukes would be:

1) Trace enemy nukes: Unless some top level officials defect, it will be impossible to get locations of all nukes. But it will be possible to get location of some nukes through espionage.

2) kill the enemy high command: Very difficult to do, since high command would whisked off to safe houses and underground bunkers moment war is announced. But they are the people who have the authority to authorise a nuclear attack, and are likely to be the ones with the codes for arming the warheads, so killing them can result in a launch being prevented or delayed enough for ground troops to search for the nukes.

3) Full-out nuclear strike: Decimate enemy with nuclear attack. Any nukes traced, plus any susceptible location for hiding nukes or enemy high command should be nuked, along with any other strategic assets. If enough enemy nukes are taken out in this strike, then enemy's capacity to ensure a successful attack will be lost. They will be left with too few nukes. The remaining nukes might be handled by ABM system.


This is just a hypothetical, 'victory at any cost' scenario. They are NOT my views or personal opinion. If it has to succeed, it is essential to have a lot of intelligence gathered on enemy nukes and enemy high command. But most of all, it requires a psychotic mindset ready to kill millions of innocent civilians. Thankfully, it has hasn't happened yet, and hopefully never will.

 

[jagjitnatt]

As of current missile inventory of Pakistan, PAD and AAD should be enough. Although they'll never have a 100% success rate. Rather the success rate would be around 30%. Hence for every missile we should have three intercepts ready.

So its possible to stop the missiles from Pakistan, although it would require a lot of missiles.

But in future if Pakistan get ICBM, then it would get a little tough. Although till then we might also upscale our capability to deal with them. I believe today we have the capability to destroy a missile with range up to 1500 km.

 

[lhuang]

Unlikely, when one missile gets through, both countries just lost, one the war, the other their country.

 

[xuxu1457]

Can India's PAD and AAD ABM systems effective against pakistans missiles?

no,even US haven't the real against missiles system,anti-missile is only a probability

 

[Kinetic]

Can India's PAD and AAD ABM systems effective against pakistans missiles?

no,even US haven't the real against missiles system,anti-missile is only a probability

They are not talking about one or two interceptors. India will deploy/launch four missiles for every Pakistani missile. According to Dr. Saraswat (Indian BMD programme chief) that will lead to 99.98% hit probability.

Next BMD test will be PDV with solid first stage for Prithvi missile. This will allow PDV to go upto 130 km above earth and destroy incoming ballistic missiles. Currently India tested BMD at 15 km, 48 km and 75 km altitudes.

Four missiles will try to destroy incoming ballistic missile at four different altitudes like 100 km+, ~50 km, ~25 km, ~15 km. If first one fails second one will take over, if second one fails third one will take over the job, if third one also fails than fourth one will do its job.

There is no surety of any BMD but this will certainly increase probability of hit! But its 100% correct that a BMD has huge psychological effects.

 

[Kinetic]

Well a few things can make PAD and AAD useless.For example:
1.MIRV our missiles.There are news that Shaheen 2 is MIRVed but no one can confirm it because such news it kept strictly confidential.But NESCOM promises that Shaheen 3(under development) is certainly MIRVed.

DR. Saraswat revealed that India working one miniature kill vehicles to destroy MIRV armed missiles. ItsPhase-II of the BMD programmes.

2.Add stealthy features to it like in RA"AD and Babur.I know that it is difficult but the world is a witness that the Pakis can do unbelievable feats.

Subsonic cruise missiles are easy to intercept when they can be tracked. Earlier it was difficult but currently AEROSAT and satellites made it easy. IAF's MR-SAM, SPYDER and Akash have capabilities to engage cruise missiles. Stealth features will improve their capabilities but than also it is possible to intercept them because of their slower speeds.

3.Make them able to do extreme evasive maneuvers.This is very problematic for the existing ABM systems.

Yes lateral thrusters and terminal maneuvers make it difficult but again the ABMs are much more agile than ballistic missiles.

4.Make the missiles able to carry a large number of decoys and other ABM counter measurements.

P.S[Im no expert at missile technology owing to the fact that im just an O level student.In my opinion sending a Pakistani missile is going to solve many queries and end the confusion(IM not responsible if it really happens)].

When developing BMD they heavily considered these requirements needed to be a good ABM at current scenario. This was integral part of the development. The possible counter measures which the incoming ballistic missile may carry are...

1) Decoys, balloons, anti-simulator decoys, radar decoys.
2) Wide maneuvers in its terminal phases.

 

[Mauryan]

It is very likely that the electromagnetic disturbance caused by even a small above-ground nuclear explosion will render the microelectronics in ballistic and anti-ballistic missiles useless. So, in the event of nuclear war, the talk of second strike is probably just fantasy.

Read more at Haq's Musings: India's Missile Shield and Israel Envy Threaten Pakistan

That is why we say,you need self contained nuclear program to deal with those threats.Fortunately India has a robust nuclear program. Kali-5000 and other similar beam weapons have been extensively used to harden the electronics thats been used for both defence and space programs.
Also I dont say,its only India that does posses this hardening capability.but all space faring nations and nations with sophisticated nuclear programs does.

To clear your mispercetion of Second strike,It will be no fantasy at any cost.In case of a hypothetical indo-pak nuclear war,pak can only get one chance to strike and if not intercepted by ABM considering the area is not populated.The very next moment salvos will be fired at pak from air,land and sea.Yes ,definitely a second strike on pak might resemble a sci-fi.

And coming to the topic:

Lets wait untill Phase-I development completes.And let the User trials convence.Unlike akash SAM user trails, ABM trials will be much harder.these include launching of salvos and also different ranged missiles. Like launching Agni I/II and Prithvis at the same time to see the reaction time and Pk of the system. Then only you can get or expect an answer.Untill then its not worth going after buds.

 

[Peregrine]

Hi
I think if Pakistan doesn't have any ABM Programme then they better develop a Ballistic missile like DF-21 with a speed of Mach 10, That would be a big nightmare for any enemy no matter how effective ABM'S they have got, But since Pakistan doesn't seem to concerned about India's ABM's i think they have already taken care of this so called threat to BM's

 

[Donatello]

India has done the right step, at least taken the baby steps of making it's own ABM. I doubt if they are battle ready or would be able to knock out Shaheen 2, i do not know. But what even i have heard from retired army engineers is that Shaheen 2 is MIRV.

Plus, what early warning radar are they using? Like the Phalcons or some other long range radar? Any specs would add more fact than fiction to the story...

 

[ao333]

ABM systems are more of "star wars" type futuristic technology.
It will be quite premature to think that any of ABM systems existing now, can do the Job.
Only Russia has an active ABM system which is quite useless as it a dummy when US Trident MIRVed Missiles will be in the air ; Till date there has been no ABM againt MIRVed Weapons.

In the India-Pakistan scenario, things are a bit easier ; with either countries not having MIRVs as of now, Indian ABM has a lower degree of offense to face.

PAD and AAD have been tested against a Midified Prithvi, which is a Tactical missile. Though it was give a path to mimic chinese M11 which it hit successfully, the situation will vary when it comes to a real Long Range Missile Intercept. India has S-300 system as well employed around several cities.

Indian ABM , as of NOW Cannot have a good dependable ABM quality, but its just the beginning. The Threat is more from Strategic Missiles with ranges above 2000 KM ; for which the system is NOT ready.

PAD+AAD ::
Tactical Missiles = Yes [ lower range Missiles ]
Strategic Long Range Missiles = NO [ The High speed of projectile, early detection adn trajectory projection being the key issues ]

Having seen the results of US' ABM programmes, time n again Ballistic Missiles seem to be Invincible. and I will be surprised and infact it will be too early if India finds a solution to the issue.

Its an Awesome beginning but still Long way to go, If we do it in a real Proved way, India may actually claim to be The First !

Ever heard of "second-stage interception?" You don't need to wait for a missile to begin re-entry before intercepting it.

Now, the United States, Russia, France, and China are the only states, which can indigenously produce MIRV ICBMS. Of the 4, all of them have successfully tested ABMs. So against Pakistan, sure... But towards those 4, it's pretty much a "Only they can hit you, but you can't hit them." scenario.

 

[aks]

They are not talking about one or two interceptors. India will deploy/launch four missiles for every Pakistani missile. According to Dr. Saraswat (Indian BMD programme chief) that will lead to 99.98% hit probability.

Next BMD test will be PDV with solid first stage for Prithvi missile. This will allow PDV to go upto 130 km above earth and destroy incoming ballistic missiles. Currently India tested BMD at 15 km, 48 km and 75 km altitudes.

Four missiles will try to destroy incoming ballistic missile at four different altitudes like 100 km+, ~50 km, ~25 km, ~15 km. If first one fails second one will take over, if second one fails third one will take over the job, if third one also fails than fourth one will do its job.

There is no surety of any BMD but this will certainly increase probability of hit! But its 100% correct that a BMD has huge psychological effects.

american ABM was unable to stop iraqi scud missile which hit kuwait in 2006 if m not wrong ....

how indians ABM are going to stop our ballistic and cruise missiles