The General's assertions are correct. The military disparity between Pakistan and India is not as wide as between Ukraine and Russia, and Pakistan is more evenly matched with India on the IB (India has to commit resources elsewhere too). Conventionally, Pakistan has shorter and more sustainable supply lines, a battle hardened army, an evenly matched air force and generally sharper 'Tip of the Spear' military technology.
I don't think India would be able to do a Russia in Pakistan even just in conventional terms. They would not be able to ground the Pakistani airforce or establish air superiority, and because of India's size, as we saw in the early 2000s, they are slow to mobilise which gives Pakistan a headstart and the opportunity for a preemptive first strike (in line with our doctrine).
In terms of China, no country is going to fight another's wars. War is ultimately a destructive force and something China knows keenly (hence its approach being pushing and prodding instead of open conflict). Pakistan didn't go to war over Afghanistan in 2001 even though we were close allies, and we have stayed out of Yemen as well. What Pakistan will benefit from China though is non-kinetic support, similar to the support NATO is giving to Ukraine at the moment in the form of signit intel and supplies. Pakistan's military integration with China makes it easier for China to resupply us, especially in the air. I think the furthest China would go would be in terms of assisting us in cyber war against the Indians. As Gwadar develops as well, I think Pakistan can rely on China keeping Pakistan's sea lanes open, something which Pakistan has struggled with in past wars - Indian attempts to close or blockade Gwadar could be seen as a casus belli for China and something they will likely want to stay away from.
Essentially, Pakistan would not have the naval and supply side issues it has had in previous wars, and would be (we hope) be able to rely on superiority in the cyber dimension. What extent that superiority is in cyber we don't know - the Indians may get better at it with Western help, and the Chinese may want to limit the extent of their assistance in that domain to prevent dragging themselves into the conflict as a direct party. But I would say something similar to February 27th 2019 would be on the cards.
And also - can we please put a lid on the IEA hero worship. They are great at guerilla warfare but things only picked up for them from 2008 when Pakistan started increasing its support and they relied on safe havens in FATA. They cannot fight a conventional war. This was a mistake Hamid Gul made in Jalalabad in 1989 and a mistake the IEA made in Chaman where they were rebuffed across the border with 9-13 casualties. The Indian Army isn't the ANA and the IEA aren't some superheroes. Pakistan's army jawans are far more capable than IEA footsoldiers and by placing the latter on a pedestal we are doing our brave men a disservice.
I don't think India would be able to do a Russia in Pakistan even just in conventional terms. They would not be able to ground the Pakistani airforce or establish air superiority, and because of India's size, as we saw in the early 2000s, they are slow to mobilise which gives Pakistan a headstart and the opportunity for a preemptive first strike (in line with our doctrine).
In terms of China, no country is going to fight another's wars. War is ultimately a destructive force and something China knows keenly (hence its approach being pushing and prodding instead of open conflict). Pakistan didn't go to war over Afghanistan in 2001 even though we were close allies, and we have stayed out of Yemen as well. What Pakistan will benefit from China though is non-kinetic support, similar to the support NATO is giving to Ukraine at the moment in the form of signit intel and supplies. Pakistan's military integration with China makes it easier for China to resupply us, especially in the air. I think the furthest China would go would be in terms of assisting us in cyber war against the Indians. As Gwadar develops as well, I think Pakistan can rely on China keeping Pakistan's sea lanes open, something which Pakistan has struggled with in past wars - Indian attempts to close or blockade Gwadar could be seen as a casus belli for China and something they will likely want to stay away from.
Essentially, Pakistan would not have the naval and supply side issues it has had in previous wars, and would be (we hope) be able to rely on superiority in the cyber dimension. What extent that superiority is in cyber we don't know - the Indians may get better at it with Western help, and the Chinese may want to limit the extent of their assistance in that domain to prevent dragging themselves into the conflict as a direct party. But I would say something similar to February 27th 2019 would be on the cards.
And also - can we please put a lid on the IEA hero worship. They are great at guerilla warfare but things only picked up for them from 2008 when Pakistan started increasing its support and they relied on safe havens in FATA. They cannot fight a conventional war. This was a mistake Hamid Gul made in Jalalabad in 1989 and a mistake the IEA made in Chaman where they were rebuffed across the border with 9-13 casualties. The Indian Army isn't the ANA and the IEA aren't some superheroes. Pakistan's army jawans are far more capable than IEA footsoldiers and by placing the latter on a pedestal we are doing our brave men a disservice.
