1.? The figures?
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In 1978 some 2,00,000 Rohingya refugees arrived south of Cox’s Bazar; again in 1991 approximately 2,50,000 fled egregious human rights violations.? Of the first wave around 11,000 died.? Of the second wave some 7,500 succumbed and more than 27,000 babies were born in the camps.? The first wave was repatriated within two years and of the second wave some 2,30,000 have already been repatriated. Thousands have fled again to Bangladesh .? To avoid repatriation more than 20,000 refugees have disappeared from the camps in which now 20,000 remain.
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In 1996 the then State Law and Order Council estimated the total Arakanese Muslim population at some 7,00,000 while other sources double the figure.? The number of armed Rohingya insurgents is estimated at maximum 1,000 (compare to e.g. 20,000 of the Shan State Army).? There are about one million Rohingyas residing outside Myanmar and Bangladesh .?
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2.? Who supports the Rohingyas??
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The camp refugees get support from UNHCR and western and Islamic NGOs (e.g. M?decins sans Fronti?res and International Islamic Relief Committee).? Those remaining consist mainly of single members of families and sympathizers of the Mujahiddeen groups RSO (Rohingya Solidarity Organisation) and ARIF (Arakan Rohingya Islamic Front) which infiltrated the camps.? Some parties (e.g. Jamaat-e-Islami) supported the refugees against the government and to reinforce their Islamic following.
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The Arakan resistance receives assistance from Bangladeshi and foreign Islamic groups (e.g. Rabita al-Alam al-Islami from Saudi Arabia and Hizbe-Islami from Afghanistan ).? “Talibans” attempting to launch a Harkat-ul-Mujahiddeen movement have been arrested and arms/explosives impounded.?? Rohingyas settled in Bangladesh as tradesmen and those who moved on to third countries as labourers (mainly the Gulf and Malaysia ) or to seek asylum, give financial support.
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3.? The refugees: a threat or threatened??
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The refugees refused to go back voluntarily: in Arakan their rights continue to be violated.? The Bangladeshi severely harassed them to make them “volunteer” for repatriation while some willing to repatriate were reportedly killed by Rohingya militants.? The refugees are poorer than the locals who resented the aid and violently attacked refugees and aid agencies.? The tension in the camps increased: the residual caseload poses problems as some refuse to repatriate and some have not yet been cleared by Myanmar .? In 1992 and 1997 demonstrations against forced repatriation resulted in several deaths by the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR).? In July 1997 extremists with smuggled arms forced out the camp authorities and hijacked the camp population.? In March 1998 a fire gutted two thirds of Kutupalong camp and the BDR stormed it.? In October Nyapara was recaptured by the police after a violent feud between two refugee groups.?
. If I were you I won't pay much attention to their "non existent sabre" rattling.
