niaz
PDF THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
- Joined
- Jun 18, 2006
- Messages
- 5,164
- Reaction score
- 211
- Country
- Location
Let us get back to the topic of the thread and do some serious thinking.
It is said that task of any Navy is to safeguard the vital shipping lanes and to interdict enemy warships trying to bomb shore-based assets (Defence) and to project power away from the shore and to bomb enemy installations close to the shore ( Offence).
Pakistan Navy has to find some way to respond to the threat posed by the powerful Indian navy. Even though there are no ‘really’ cheap options when it comes to the naval operations, ‘relatively’ low-cost solutions can be found.
What can powerful Indian Navy do to Pakistan?
IN surface vessels and submarines would attempt to sink the merchant vessels taking vital supplies to Pakistan and stop Pakistani export by the sea with a naval blockade. IN aircraft carriers could be used to bomb and destroy critical Pakistani installations such as oil storage and refineries and also bomb any merchant ships that escaped attack from the surface and sub-surface warships.
Pakistan’s largest trading partners are China (16.9%), European Union (13%), UAE (10.9%) & Saudi Arabia (9.0%). Thus with the exception of China; the major volume of our import/export is from the AG & from the West through the Suez Canal.
With the CPEC in operation; Chinese import/export trade could use the land route during wartime reducing the dependence on seaborne trade going East.
There is a huge amount of shipping transiting Suez Canal on daily basis and going towards the AG and Far Eastern ports; hence unless the ship carries Pakistani flag; one would not know where the ship is heading until it is past the Omani coast.
Therefore, during the emergency /war like situation; Pak Navy’s primary task will limited be to safeguarding the sea lanes east of Oman; a distance of less than 1000 km.
With Indian Navy operating nuclear submarine and possibly up to 4 aircraft carriers; Pakistan neither has nor likely to have resources to buy the sufficient number of warships to match Indian naval power in the blue water. So what are the options available to Pakistan to safeguard her sea lanes and 200 miles economic zone?
Pakistan Navy is scheduled to receive 8 Chines submarines, these together with the Augusta fleet should do enough to deter Indian Navy subs & frigates from attacking Karachi bound merchant vessels travelling inside a 600 mile long & 200-mile wide corridor off-Pakistan coast. The main advantage a nuclear submarine has over the AIP equipped submarine is the longer submerged duration. Indian nuclear submarines, therefore, do not pose any significant additional threat in India/Pakistan war scenario.
Ever since the Midway encounter of June 1942, naval battles have been dominated by the aircraft with aircraft carriers as floating bases. Technology has added another offensive weapon in the form of ship & submarine-launched cruise missiles.
An aircraft carrier such as HMS Queen Elizabeth costs about $10-billion. Even a second-hand carrier will cost close to$4-billiob. On the other hand, a state of the art aircraft armed with anti-ship missiles such as Su-35 will cost about $70-million per unit of. Suppose 5 SU-35s are lost sinking one carrier, it is $400-million versus $10-billion; a ratio of 1:25.
A cruise missile such as Tomahawk carrying one 1,000 lb bomb costs less than 2-million and can be fired from the sub, surface warship or from the shore. Just one strike is sufficient to sink $10-bilion carrier or a $400-million frigate.
Admittedly Cruise missiles can be shot down by the ships anti-air defences. However, any defence can be overwhelmed. Say you fire 30 cruise missiles at an aircraft carrier, one or two are bound to get through. This means one could possibly sink a $10-billion carrier at the cost of $60-billion.
Drones /UAV appear to be an even cheaper option. A small UAV such as Israeli ‘Harpo’ can loiter up to 6 hours and carries a 50-lb bomb. Don’t know the actual cost but it would in tens of thousands dollars. One could launch say 100-Harop like UAVs against a major warship and if only 10 get through, it would kill a $400-million frigate for the price of $10-million. (Understand India has ordered $100-million worth of these from Israel – mainly for use as an-anti air defence weapon)
As mentioned earlier, none of the above options is really cheap; but it is all relative.
It is said that task of any Navy is to safeguard the vital shipping lanes and to interdict enemy warships trying to bomb shore-based assets (Defence) and to project power away from the shore and to bomb enemy installations close to the shore ( Offence).
Pakistan Navy has to find some way to respond to the threat posed by the powerful Indian navy. Even though there are no ‘really’ cheap options when it comes to the naval operations, ‘relatively’ low-cost solutions can be found.
What can powerful Indian Navy do to Pakistan?
IN surface vessels and submarines would attempt to sink the merchant vessels taking vital supplies to Pakistan and stop Pakistani export by the sea with a naval blockade. IN aircraft carriers could be used to bomb and destroy critical Pakistani installations such as oil storage and refineries and also bomb any merchant ships that escaped attack from the surface and sub-surface warships.
Pakistan’s largest trading partners are China (16.9%), European Union (13%), UAE (10.9%) & Saudi Arabia (9.0%). Thus with the exception of China; the major volume of our import/export is from the AG & from the West through the Suez Canal.
With the CPEC in operation; Chinese import/export trade could use the land route during wartime reducing the dependence on seaborne trade going East.
There is a huge amount of shipping transiting Suez Canal on daily basis and going towards the AG and Far Eastern ports; hence unless the ship carries Pakistani flag; one would not know where the ship is heading until it is past the Omani coast.
Therefore, during the emergency /war like situation; Pak Navy’s primary task will limited be to safeguarding the sea lanes east of Oman; a distance of less than 1000 km.
With Indian Navy operating nuclear submarine and possibly up to 4 aircraft carriers; Pakistan neither has nor likely to have resources to buy the sufficient number of warships to match Indian naval power in the blue water. So what are the options available to Pakistan to safeguard her sea lanes and 200 miles economic zone?
Pakistan Navy is scheduled to receive 8 Chines submarines, these together with the Augusta fleet should do enough to deter Indian Navy subs & frigates from attacking Karachi bound merchant vessels travelling inside a 600 mile long & 200-mile wide corridor off-Pakistan coast. The main advantage a nuclear submarine has over the AIP equipped submarine is the longer submerged duration. Indian nuclear submarines, therefore, do not pose any significant additional threat in India/Pakistan war scenario.
Ever since the Midway encounter of June 1942, naval battles have been dominated by the aircraft with aircraft carriers as floating bases. Technology has added another offensive weapon in the form of ship & submarine-launched cruise missiles.
An aircraft carrier such as HMS Queen Elizabeth costs about $10-billion. Even a second-hand carrier will cost close to$4-billiob. On the other hand, a state of the art aircraft armed with anti-ship missiles such as Su-35 will cost about $70-million per unit of. Suppose 5 SU-35s are lost sinking one carrier, it is $400-million versus $10-billion; a ratio of 1:25.
A cruise missile such as Tomahawk carrying one 1,000 lb bomb costs less than 2-million and can be fired from the sub, surface warship or from the shore. Just one strike is sufficient to sink $10-bilion carrier or a $400-million frigate.
Admittedly Cruise missiles can be shot down by the ships anti-air defences. However, any defence can be overwhelmed. Say you fire 30 cruise missiles at an aircraft carrier, one or two are bound to get through. This means one could possibly sink a $10-billion carrier at the cost of $60-billion.
Drones /UAV appear to be an even cheaper option. A small UAV such as Israeli ‘Harpo’ can loiter up to 6 hours and carries a 50-lb bomb. Don’t know the actual cost but it would in tens of thousands dollars. One could launch say 100-Harop like UAVs against a major warship and if only 10 get through, it would kill a $400-million frigate for the price of $10-million. (Understand India has ordered $100-million worth of these from Israel – mainly for use as an-anti air defence weapon)
As mentioned earlier, none of the above options is really cheap; but it is all relative.
Last edited:
