Who is winning? its a stalemate tactically so far. if this remains it will be an Armenian victory. They have already won the previous war and control around 2xtimes the territory they are claiming.
they have no reason to go on offensives. its the Azeris who are determined to take back territory by force. ARmenia has always offered to exchanged the undisputed azeri territory for peace.
So as long as Armenia can stuff a pre-planned invasion by a country more then twice its size and heavily supported by Turkey. It will be a huuuuge victory for the Armenians. this could also mean the end of ilham alievs political career.
Will the disputed territories be liberated? No. Azerbaijan has already thrown their pre-planned blitz, and are exausting their drone supplies without making much progress. They should have made more progress by now. The Armenians are digging in for total war mode, have the higher ground and time favors them. the Armenians are fighting for survival, they have nothing to lose. Azeris are fighting for ambition and nationlism. they got drained and gave up in teh early 90s, and most likely will do so again.
Is the war limited or extending? its escalating and expanding massively. both sides are in martial law, mobilizing the male populations ,and are attacking major population centres (stepankert). At this point the Azeris have taken massive casualties to their best troops, and need to show their people some kind of victory in the form of gained territory. Alievs neck could be on the line here. a defeat would end his career. he has put all his eggs in erdogans basket at this point.
