Attack on Pak will be attack on China: report

[Geronimo2011]

If US trade stops, China won't suffer as much as everyone else and probably will open up new markets for itself.

It can easily replace the lost trade with its Forex for a while and still grow.

Well China will surely suffer the most if one of the most profitable avenues of its trade is stopped. Remember that China's economy is extremely dependent on exports to USA. Not the other way round. And finding that large a consumerist market while still being in a war with USA will be impossible as probably there would be trade sanctions from the West (NATO)

It depends what the benefits are for China.

And that is the trillion dollar question. WOuld China risk all that if US takes out another compound with Taliban leaders in say an Urban area of Karachi or for that matter Islamabad..??

 

[MilSpec]

What's wrong with that? That's what allies do. They invest greatly in nations that are allied to them and protect their interests.

It's still a warning and probably why no serious airspace violations occur.

Rather than chinese guarantee against american air space violations .. why dont you build a freakin radar and keep it turned ON on the afghan border

 

[Anonymous user]

While what you say is true in peace time aka lehman brothers, it does not apply in case of a war. Because in case of a war between China and USA, those supply lines will be cut anyway.. No??

My scenario are based on actual not taking place because if war did happen the Stock exchanged will be shut down anyway and consumer confidence in stock will also be flat lined leading to the same effect, no one can predict what will happen in a war especially with China and US both hiding weapons up their sleeves we have no knowledge of and of course nuclear weapons.

Mate, China's Balance of trade with USA in 2010 was over 270 billion. China's overall balance of trade was under $ 150 billion. That shows, that China uses money earned from exporting to the USA to buy stuff from all over the world. Hypothetically, if trade with USA stops, China will have an overall trade balance of negative 120 billion dollars or so.. So while US makes up for 22% of the trade, it is the most profitable 22% of China's trade. Take that out, and China is in negative balance of payment..

My reply was to counter your reply on post 89 about the huge trade trade surplus being cut impacting the energy deals made by China, currently US controls 1 trillion of China's money in its debt and 120 Billion in its surplus. Considering China still has about a 2 trillion dollar reserve and 78% of its trade volume unaffected the impact is not as severe as to impact the energy deals mentioned.

 

[roadrunner]

Keeping a radar turned on isn't going to stop anything.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Well China will surely suffer the most if one of the most profitable avenues of its trade is stopped. Remember that China's economy is extremely dependent on exports to USA. Not the other way round.

Not true.

According to the World Bank, exports make up only 27% of the Chinese economy.

World Bank - Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)

And out of that 27%, America only makes up 16% of our external trade.

 

[Geronimo2011]

I doubt there will be another Sino-American war.

And the person who doesn't pay their debts will lose the most, since their credit rating will crash. For a country like the USA that depends on international loans, that is unthinkable.

Losing that money would suck, but our currency reserves are around 3 trillion. Most countries would kill to have even half of that as their currency reserves.

Even if we hypothetically lose a trillion dollars due to the US collapsing (or something)... we will still have the largest currency reserves in the world.

Sir, this whole thread is based on a hypothetical war between China and USA. Also, there is a difference between defaulting on a loan and going bankrupt vs deducting a war penalty from a loan payable to the enemy. While 1st results in credit rating drop, the 2nd at worst results in a long international Litigation..

And the question was not whether China can survive a loss like that, but whether it would be worth it for China to engage USA in a battle and risk all that as a result of an American intrusion in Pakistani space

 

[Geronimo2011]

the drone attacks are not serious airspace violations obviously. they just kill some civilians here and there which some people find acceptable (in all honesty more civilians are probably murdered in India everyday in any single state). The PPP might find it acceptable and might be allowing it. Noone really knows.

A serious airspace violation would be like operation geronimo. Boots on the ground would be serious also.

Its a sad state of affairs when you rationalize like this.. btw, more than 3000 people die every month in USA due to unnatural reasons. But they did come to asia and screwed up Afghanistan and Pakistan due to 9/11

Till the time Boots on the ground were not happeneing you were calling drones as serious intrusions.

Now with Op Gerinimo, the ante has been upped..

Wait for the next shift in levels and then even boots on the ground will seem acceptable

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Considering China still has about a 2 trillion dollar reserve and 78% of its trade volume unaffected the impact is not as severe as to impact the energy deals mentioned.

Our reserves are actually 3 trillion now buddy.

China's forex reserves pass 3 trillion USD for first time - People's Daily Online

 

[khurasaan1]

Pak-China defence pact is inevitable and sure to happen.. and this is one of the nth prediction of Niamatullah Shah Wali. Now this is almost a reality.

Another thing most of the pplz dont know from the Bible old Testimony and the Torah which is also predicting about this happeneing ...in detail ...and it sayz that this will be the Armageddon ...in which China will be with the Muslim world ...and the result of the battle is also given that the US/NATO gonna loose this battle in the end...the destruction of Israel is also predicted ..thats why the Intelligence agencies of the US/NATO and Mosaad is trembling cuz it is in their holy books....they cant do anything about it ..they cant change the future...and the result already decided by GOD to them...
I guess this is the time for the US/NATO to come to the right path before it is too late for them and there will be no place left for them to hide on the face of the world from God/Allah punishment....They are continuosly getting decieved by Devil and falling into its traps of destruction. Its very sad that after so much development u choose destruction as the fate....

 

[Geronimo2011]

Not true.

According to the World Bank, exports make up only 27% of the Chinese economy.

World Bank - Exports of goods and services (% of GDP)

And out of that 27%, America only makes up 16% of our external trade.

USA makes up for 270 billion dollars of surplus every year.. Factor removal of that into the over all annual FOREX growth for China and the importance of US trade will be evident..

 

[Anonymous user]

Our reserves are actually 3 trillion now buddy.

China's forex reserves pass 3 trillion USD for first time - People's Daily Online

Haha thanks what I meant to say was China would have 2 trillion left assuming the US did forfeit the 1 trillion, say can you spare me a few million I badly want to buy a ferrari

 

[Geronimo2011]

Another thing most of the pplz dont know from the Bible old Testimony and the Torah which is also predicting about this happeneing ...in detail ...and it sayz that this will be the Armageddon ...in which China will be with the Muslim world ...and the result of the battle is also given that the US/NATO gonna loose this battle in the end...the destruction of Israel is also predicted ..thats why the Intelligence agencies of the US/NATO and Mosaad is trembling cuz it is in their holy books....they cant do anything about it ..they cant change the future...and the result already decided by GOD to them...
I guess this is the time for the US/NATO to come to the right path before it is too late for them and there will be no place left for them to hide on the face of the world from God/Allah punishment....They are continuosly getting decieved by Devil and falling into its traps of destruction. Its very sad that after so much development u choose destruction as the fate....

Back to religious mumbo jumbo and prophecies..

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

USA makes up for 270 billion dollars of surplus every year.. Factor removal of that into the over all annual FOREX growth for China and the importance of US trade will be evident..

It is important but not life-threatening.

Even IF the USA does collapse, and stops ALL trade, and is unable to pay back ANY of their loans... (three very unlikely assumptions).

We will still have the largest forex reserves on the planet.

Haha thanks what I meant to say was China would have 2 trillion left assuming the US did forfeit the 1 trillion, say can you spare me a few million I badly want to buy a ferrari

LOL sorry buddy I don't work for the HK government, I can't get into any of those funds.

 

[khurasaan1]

Back to religious mumbo jumbo and prophecies..

Okay Iam not telling u to believe in it ...but I just tried to convey the facts...Ask American think tanks if u know anybody from there ...how much they believe in it ....They r not dumb ..their all policies are based on these predictions...

 

[roadrunner]

Well China will surely suffer the most if one of the most profitable avenues of its trade is stopped. Remember that China's economy is extremely dependent on exports to USA. Not the other way round. And finding that large a consumerist market while still being in a war with USA will be impossible as probably there would be trade sanctions from the West (NATO)

Even if China loses US trade it still exports just under a trillion in goods. With US trade it exports a trillion and a quarter. It's not going to stop it growing.

If the US could stop it growing by not trading with it then it probably would have done.