Attack on Pak will be attack on China: report

[Geronimo2011]

the Govt. is not direct or upfront with the people its supposed to represent

From whatever we are seeing, nor is the Army.. Despite its hallowed image...

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

China could strike off a trillion in US debt quite easily.

Its forex reserve is four or five times bigger.

It probably already has the upper hand.

Even though we have large forex reserves, a trillion dollars is still an enormous amount of money.

Still, all countries must pay their debts. The only way out, is for a country to collapse.

So as long as the USA doesn't collapse, we can still claim on the loans we gave to them.

 

[Geronimo2011]

You are absolutely right. Some American and Indians can troll here as much as they want but reality is their Government could not win the trust of Pakistani peoples for whatever reasons. While you will hardly see any Pakistani who has any doubt about sincerity of Chinese government. Actions speak louder than words and yes America is nothing but a bully using force to get want it wants.

2 points

1. Indian govt doesnt claim to want to win the trust of Pakistani people
2. Dont you find it sad, that Pakistani people have more faith in Chinese govt than they have in their own

 

[Geronimo2011]

You can try and attack something of Chinese interest in Pakistan and see if they keep their word. Or perhaps it's just the civilians that people are brave enough to attack.

So the support from China is qualified as only applicable if something of Chinese INterest is attacked.. So shouldnt it read,

Only that Attack on Pak that is of interest to China will be taken as Attack on China

 

[roadrunner]

So the support from China is qualified as only applicable if something of Chinese INterest is attacked.. So shouldnt it read,

Only that Attack on Pak that is of interest to China will be taken as Attack on China

What's wrong with that? That's what allies do. They invest greatly in nations that are allied to them and protect their interests.

It's still a warning and probably why no serious airspace violations occur.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Korean war:

- China told the USA to stop pushing into North Korea
- The USA refused
- China attacked, and pushed American forces completely out of North Korea

Sino-Indian War:

- China told India to stop pushing into Chinese territory
- India refused
- China attacked, and pushed Indian forces completely out of Aksai chin

The Indian members here, should learn from history. The Chinese government doesn't bluff very often.

 

[Anonymous user]

I believe the middle east is the largest source of oil for China. Saudi Arabia and Iran combined exported over twice as much oil as Angola in 2009.I would bet its same if not higher now. All the oil has to pass through the straights of Mallaca and the South China sea, the Americans have at least 1 aircraft carrier group in south china sea(did you forget about the false flag sinking of the South Korean sub a few yrs back). Please don't be so naive.

Your view on the world economy is too simplistic, for the sake good humour lets play out the scenario put forward although I am pretty sure embargoing Oil to China will be seen as an act of war. So lets say the US deploys its Carriers to block Oil from from China and China decides to wait it out.

China's energy is derived primarily from coal, in fact 70% is from coal and China also has one of the world's largest coal reserves though they import due to the mining not keeping up with the demand. They also hold a Strategic Oil reserve of about 178 Million Barrels not to mention CTL technology which is currently in use. The embargo will hurt China but not shut her down, Oil will probably be diverted from commercial to military use extending the lifespan. Coal will supply electricity which China is self sufficient so no surprises there.
http://www.chinaknowledge.com/Business/CBGdetails.aspx?subchap=1&content=7
Coal by country - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
China has 24.38 mln T strategic oil reserve capacity | Reuters

Assuming US keeps its carrier there for a week and China decides to stop exporting and importing from the world what will be the impact then? Any company around the world that has links to China will see their stock price free fall, any bank that loaned money to those companies will also free fall followed by Insurance companies etc not to mention inflation for items previously sourced from China now unavailable. Civil unrest will go on around the world do you think the US can afford to strangle the world economy? Will the EU continue to lend support once the public sector goes in chaos?

This is just a simple overview we have not even talked about support from Russia or missiles flying yet. The US hoping to embargo China Oil supply is wishful thinking, currently they can't even embargo simple items effectively or rectify the currency issue.

If you want to have a serious discussion please come back with something more relevant or least some evidence to dispute the above.

 

[Geronimo2011]

Firstly if US assets in China and supply chain from China (i.e apple products) is cut though the value is small its confidence that will kill the market. Its very similar to how one bank Lehman managed to sink the entire economy due to complicated interlinks between companies and banks and hedge funds that exist in economy today.

While what you say is true in peace time aka lehman brothers, it does not apply in case of a war. Because in case of a war between China and USA, those supply lines will be cut anyway.. No??

Firstly China's owned US debt stands at about 1 trillion and secondly the US makes up about 22% of total trade volume, can you clarify how the total 3 trillion dollars is linked to its current US debt level to % of total trade. You are giving the impression that China only trades with the US.

US-China Trade Statistics and China's World Trade Statistics table 7 and 8

Mate, China's Balance of trade with USA in 2010 was over 270 billion. China's overall balance of trade was under $ 150 billion. That shows, that China uses money earned from exporting to the USA to buy stuff from all over the world. Hypothetically, if trade with USA stops, China will have an overall trade balance of negative 120 billion dollars or so.. So while US makes up for 22% of the trade, it is the most profitable 22% of China's trade. Take that out, and China is in negative balance of payment..

 

[Geronimo2011]

Even though we have large forex reserves, a trillion dollars is still an enormous amount of money.

Still, all countries must pay their debts. The only way out, is for a country to collapse.

So as long as the USA doesn't collapse, we can still claim on the loans we gave to them.

Unless US levies war penalties on China and deducts those from the amount payable to China. Remember that some of the members here are hypothesizing a war between China and USA

 

[Geronimo2011]

China could strike off a trillion in US debt quite easily.

Its forex reserve is four or five times bigger.

It probably already has the upper hand.

ha ha.. You are really not doing justice to your title of think tank.. Just 2 things

1. A trillion dollars write off is not a child's play.. Will throw any economy into doldrums even if the reserve size is 3 times that of the write off
2. And would china do that for Pakistan?? hmm..

 

[roadrunner]

While what you say is true in peace time aka lehman brothers, it does not apply in case of a war. Because in case of a war between China and USA, those supply lines will be cut anyway.. No??



Mate, China's Balance of trade with USA in 2010 was over 270 billion. China's overall balance of trade was under $ 150 billion. That shows, that China uses money earned from exporting to the USA to buy stuff from all over the world. Hypothetically, if trade with USA stops, China will have an overall trade balance of negative 120 billion dollars or so.. So while US makes up for 22% of the trade, it is the most profitable 22% of China's trade. Take that out, and China is in negative balance of payment..

If US trade stops, China won't suffer as much as everyone else and probably will open up new markets for itself.

It can easily replace the lost trade with its Forex for a while and still grow.

---------- Post added at 02:39 AM ---------- Previous post was at 02:38 AM ----------

1. A trillion dollars write off is not a child's play.. Will throw any economy into doldrums even if the reserve size is 3 times that of the write off

It depends what the benefits are for China.

 

[Geronimo2011]

What's wrong with that? That's what allies do. They invest greatly in nations that are allied to them and protect their interests.

It's still a warning and probably why no serious airspace violations occur.

What do you call the drone attacks, attacks on your border posts and the famed operation Geronimo??

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Unless US levies war penalties on China and deducts those from the amount payable to China. Remember that some of the members here are hypothesizing a war between China and USA

I doubt there will be another Sino-American war.

And the person who doesn't pay their debts will lose the most, since their credit rating will crash. For a country like the USA that depends on international loans, that is unthinkable.

Losing that money would suck, but our currency reserves are around 3 trillion. Most countries would kill to have even half of that as their currency reserves.

Even if we hypothetically lose a trillion dollars due to the US collapsing (or something)... we will still have the largest currency reserves in the world.

 

[Geronimo2011]

Korean war:

- China told the USA to stop pushing into North Korea
- The USA refused
- China attacked, and pushed American forces completely out of North Korea

Sino-Indian War:

- China told India to stop pushing into Chinese territory
- India refused
- China attacked, and pushed Indian forces completely out of Aksai chin

The Indian members here, should learn from history. The Chinese government doesn't bluff very often.

There is a disclaimer that accompanies most financial products these days.. Past performance should not be taken as a guarantee of future returns

At the time of both the instances you talk of , China had very little to lose in terms of economic growth by getting into wars. Life has changed quite a bit for China now. At this time, the cost benefit analysis of getting into a war will read very different..

To be clear, I am not doubting China's capability, just the appetite to risk the decades of economic growth for a show of might

 

[roadrunner]

the drone attacks are not serious airspace violations obviously. they just kill some civilians here and there which some people find acceptable (in all honesty more civilians are probably murdered in India everyday in any single state). The PPP might find it acceptable and might be allowing it. Noone really knows.

A serious airspace violation would be like operation geronimo. Boots on the ground would be serious also.