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As Aleppo Falls, Iran Rises

Turkey's Navy, Army & Air Force may be stronger than Iran's but the fact is their spread of influence in the region in and around their southern borders is far less than Iran's.
Iran has far greater influence in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria & Lebanon. Basically from India & China stretching to the Mediterranean & this makes the Saudi's shiver & the Turks extremely jealous!!!!!
Turkish military launched an operation on Syria, occupied lands which are getting bigger so far and regularly striking targets in north Iraq plus is has bases in booth countries, you might overthink your analysis considering those facts.
 
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my brother if you look at Syrian war history from back in 2013 in all syrian negotiation whether it was called friends of Syria or Geneva peace talk or crossfire talk ex
from back then the Americans and Turks were saying Iran is not allowed to participate and trying to downplay our roll .even the Russians were not that bothered

but from 2016 all these countries had to ask us to participate . at end of day whomever control ground it will make ultimate decision NOT this deal or that deal or UN
Turkish military launched an operation on Syria, occupied lands which are getting bigger so far and regularly striking targets in north Iraq plus is has bases in booth countries, you might overthink your analysis considering those facts.

You just proved my point exactly!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Invading and occupying a country with armored vehicles without permission from that country doesn't give you influence in fact the opposite it shows how little influence you have that you had to force your way in with Tanks!
And every action comes with a reaction & Turkish invasion of Iraq & Syria in the long run will work against it & will help to reduce what little influence they have and create hatred among the people!!!
NO ONE likes INVADER! Bunch of Idiots you are!!!
 
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Turkish military launched an operation on Syria, occupied lands which are getting bigger so far and regularly striking targets in north Iraq plus is has bases in booth countries, you might overthink your analysis considering those facts.

If anything, all you have to do is look at my countries invasion and subsequent occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan. We came in with the strongest military in the world, kicked everyone's *** in 3 or so weeks and then since we were both hated and our domestic influence was small, the people resisted us.

And Iraq is where it is today.

But Iran took that chance since the religion, that being Shia islam was the same as the majority of Iraq, and made Iraq into a rather strong Iranian ally (around millions or 500,000 Iraq Shia fighters are loyal to Iran if I'm not mistaken). Syria is no different but the ties between the two countries aren't so much religious as they are strategic and ptactical.

But the main point of Iran not allowing Syria to be divided up and the Bashar government to be disposed is by all means Hezbollah. Hezbollah is no longer a highly trained militia with the aim of protecting Southern Lebanon, it's much stronger and way better equipped. With its soldiers being some of the best and highly trained of the militias and militant groups in the world (track record is amazing as far as battlefield wins are concerned).

Russia recognizes Hezbollah power and Iran has many other groups that it is training that follows Hezbollahs model.

Hezbollah keeps Israel in check and that's saying something.

I do have a quick few things on Turkey though. I like the country and the people (I am American but both of my parents are Iranian, and I was born in the US).

But frankly Turkey should have never took the US stance with regards to Syria. As strong as Turkey is, Turkey is still no US military not even close. Defense budget and multary equipment aside, I don't think the Turkish people let alone government would actual welcome a prolonged war against Iran in both Syria and Iraq. Sonce Turkeys internal security is abysmal by all a counts and a coup attempt etc, etc...

Before I go on, I mean no disrespect to the dead Turkish civilians and soldiers who have goven their lives in their fight against terrorist (Turkey is very stead fast in spirit when it comes to this regard).

But Erdogan made a mistake, Turkey just has a strong militany compared to the countries around it but comparing Turkish military to Iranian is apples to beef (theyre completely different). What turkey lacks is influence just like what the US lacked and ultimately will lose of they go it alone.

Lucky for Turkey, Erdogan sees his error and is working with the Russian Syrian Iranian alliance. This will pay off better for turkey as the US is just a burden for Turkey and it's people.

You guys can't take much more terrorist attacks. I'd that happen then your entire country will be on the path to a failed state and turist will refuse to come from the fear of bwing shot up or blown to pieces by the 1000s of Islamic extremist that live in turkey (as a result of idiotic government policies regarding Travel of people from turkey into syria)

To tell you all the truth. Iran has the best security in that region bar none. It really amazes me.
 
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iran and hezbolah is in syria but fighting
but let turkey and russia do the cease fire
so it get s easily pass in un
 
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Russia economically is not a strong country for them the fastest way forward is to stop the supply of weapons into Syria that means making some concessions with the Turks
For the Russians advertising that Iran & Russia are on the same side in Syria brings no Diplomatic leverage towards west (U.S. & NATO in particular) BUT showing a major NATO Power is colluding with Russia not only brings leverage but it also hurts!!!!

Any country that thinks Iran would give up support for Hezbullah under any circumstances is delusional! If the Russian tomorrow were to offer Iran 200 Su-Pak FA for free as a trade for Iran's support for Hezbullah Iran still wouldn't give up it's support for Hezbuallh!

Turkey's Navy, Army & Air Force may be stronger than Iran's but the fact is their spread of influence in the region in and around their southern borders is far less than Iran's.
Iran has far greater influence in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria & Lebanon. Basically from India & China stretching to the Mediterranean & this makes the Saudi's shiver & the Turks extremely jealous!!!!!

Americans, Turks & the Saudi's think that if they can turn or get Iran to turn on Hezbullah this will cause a domino effect with the rest of Iran's friends & partners and they may be right but knowing that means Iran would have to be suicidal to give up it's support for Hezbullah!

The only chance the west has is to try to bring Iran & it's friends to the western block but the fact is they have shot themselves in the foot with their sanctions & embargo's for almost 40 years now & they still haven't learned their lesson!

I believe the Russians are smarter than that & they know Iranians better but even if they are not! Iran's future is towards the east towards China & India for they will be the next 2 economic powers of the world in the next 20-50 years.
Yes current Russian & American weapons are better but weapons aren't everything & Iran is not now nor will it ever again be a major weapons importer anyways!

One question: Given the incoming American president's positions on Iran's nuclear deal, his positions on Russia and Israel, are their any risks with regards to Iran's 'alliance' with Russia?
 
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One question: Given the incoming American president's positions on Iran's nuclear deal, his positions on Russia and Israel, are their any risks with regards to Iran's 'alliance' with Russia?

Not in the long run because Trump is just one man & one president he will come and go! Iran & Russia are practically neighbors & share a lot of the same security concerns and they will remain partners in one form or another for generations to come!
Plus Iran's economic future is more tied to China & India so worst case is that during Trump Presidency Iran will focus more on those relationships till Trumps is gone! And Russian Iranian cooperation will be more covert! And that's the worst case scenario!

One can also say because of the influence the Russians have on Trump their will be more cooperation between Iran & Russia!!!

Iran & Russia are the two largest powers of the Caspian Sea & Iran is Russia's main access to the Persian Gulf! Iran's influence stretches from India & China to the Mediterranean.... Russian are smarter than that to destroy their relationship with Iran over 1 US president! Worst case is that the relationship will turn into a covert relationship but it will remain!
 
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One question: Given the incoming American president's positions on Iran's nuclear deal, his positions on Russia and Israel, are their any risks with regards to Iran's 'alliance' with Russia?
the risk is more on Trump's position against Russia than Russia against Iran :D
 
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Not in the long run because Trump is just one man & one president he will come and go! Iran & Russia are practically neighbors & share a lot of the same security concerns and they will remain partners in one form or another for generations to come!
Plus Iran's economic future is more tied to China & India so worst case is that during Trump Presidency Iran will focus more on those relationships till Trumps is gone! And Russian Iranian cooperation will be more covert! And that's the worst case scenario!

One can also say because of the influence the Russians have on Trump their will be more cooperation between Iran & Russia!!!

Iran & Russia are the two largest powers of the Caspian Sea & Iran is Russia's main access to the Persian Gulf! Iran's influence stretches from India & China to the Mediterranean.... Russian are smarter than that to destroy their relationship with Iran over 1 US president! Worst case is that the relationship will turn into a covert relationship but it will remain!

the risk is more on Trump's position against Russia than Russia against Iran :D

Interesting with regards to your relationship with Russia. And India? :lol: I remember all those years ago how the Israelis were complaining that Iran being an evil Muslim-majority country (in their view) is going to wipe them out with their nukes. This, while pagan-India is just one block away. But you are getting along just fine. Trade is always good. I like your spirit! Doo keep it that way. I just can't shake off the feeling of irony there :D

Iran's economy was not in great shape. And neither is Russia's right now. In fact, they are struggling while at the same time, they want to be recognized as a legitimate power to be feared. That's why I had questioned how far you'd trust Russia. Putin is a very smart and cool-headed man.

As a result of the nuclear deal, Iran's sanctions would be lifted in phases over time. Iran has economic promise. I'm sure that it'll become an economic hub of the Middle East and Central Asia. Central Asia is a largely underutilized area which holds a lot of promise.

Yes VEVAK, global wealth had gradually been shifting to Asia with some saying it to be the 'Asian Century'. Yet, India and China have limitations given the power and stability of the American Dollar. The market for the USD is the deepest, most stable and most liquid market out there. It is that dependence on that power is what made Asia into what it is today, and there's still more growth to be captured. With America being the owner of the USD, that growth would not had been there in the first place. Russia, China and India do not come close to that power, and will not be for a very long time. That is how America is still a superpower. By only engaging with some Eurasian countries, you are not going to get your full potential out.
 
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Interesting with regards to your relationship with Russia. And India? :lol: I remember all those years ago how the Israelis were complaining that Iran being an evil Muslim-majority country (in their view) is going to wipe them out with their nukes. This, while pagan-India is just one block away. But you are getting along just fine. Trade is always good. I like your spirit! Doo keep it that way. I just can't shake off the feeling of irony there :D

Iran's economy was not in great shape. And neither is Russia's right now. In fact, they are struggling while at the same time, they want to be recognized as a legitimate power to be feared. That's why I had questioned how far you'd trust Russia. Putin is a very smart and cool-headed man.

As a result of the nuclear deal, Iran's sanctions would be lifted in phases over time. Iran has economic promise. I'm sure that it'll become an economic hub of the Middle East and Central Asia. Central Asia is a largely underutilized area which holds a lot of promise.

Yes VEVAK, global wealth had gradually been shifting to Asia with some saying it to be the 'Asian Century'. Yet, India and China have limitations given the power and stability of the American Dollar. The market for the USD is the deepest, most stable and most liquid market out there. It is that dependence on that power is what made Asia into what it is today, and there's still more growth to be captured. With America being the owner of the USD, that growth would not had been there in the first place. Russia, China and India do not come close to that power, and will not be for a very long time. That is how America is still a superpower. By only engaging with some Eurasian countries, you are not going to get your full potential out.

Iran may be a theocracy but in no way is it blinded by religious ideology when it comes to international policy! Remember Iran backed Christian Armenia over Shiite Azerbaijan in the 90's because Azerbaijan was clearly in the wrong! Israeli's have been crying wolf about Iran since they got kicked out of Iran after the revolution! Yesterday they told the Indians they need to fear Iran & today they tell the South Koreans & Japanese that they need to fear technology transfers from Iran to North Korea! I personally think they are wasting their time and people aren't as stupid as they wish them to be!

China & India together hold over 2.5 Billion people That's a lot of business and it doesn't have much to do with currency value as long as they have continued economic growth that's all that matters! Chinese have had low currency value for a long time yet they are the ones loaning the U.S. money!!!!!!!!!!

The U.S. is over $20 Trillion USD in debt! The only reason the U.S. Dollar hasn't dropped is because today the U.S. currency is more of a global currency than a currency strictly for the U.S.! If the U.S. ever loses that status their currency will be so devalued that they wont be able to feed their own military!
Back in 2002 even the suggestion of the U.S. Dollar losing it's status was something so absurd that people thought you were crazy! Today it's not that absurd U.S. is $20 Trillion in debt they spend more than they can print and even a country like Turkey that has US bases on it's soil knows they can pressure the U.S. by just suggesting that they will stop using the U.S. Dollar and that's a NATO member!

With a Trump Presidency it doesn't look like the U.S. is planning on being much of a team player with other countries and the biggest threat to the U.S. today is it's own economy & reckless spending! When your in debt greater than your yearly GDP and rising then your in big trouble and the only reason the U.S. hasn't felt the effects of this so far is because their currency remains the main global currency! BUT 10-15 years from now if that debt goes to double their GDP investment in the U.S. dollar will look like a fools errand and it wont matter what government you can pressure with your military the masses are not going to have the confidence to invest in your currency!

So the continued growth in the Chinese & Indian economy backed by a population of 2.5 Billion is far more valuable than American Currency! And yes most countries will be effected if the U.S. dollar falls but 2.5 Billion people will still be eating, drinking, buying clothing, building houses, driving cars,....

I wouldn't say the U.S. economy is on the verge of collapse anytime soon but if this trend doesn't change for the next 2 decade things will not look too good for the U.S.! But if you look at the trend for China & India all you can see is growth for then next 2 decades!
 
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I disagree with the argument usa uses to negotiate with Russia against Syria which is Iran increases its influence in Syria, Iraq and other countries are right to take every measure against this development.

It is a simple egg and chicken problem which came first and if usa thinks it is too smart or others too fool than good luck using that argument. If daesh didnt grow in 2014 and Iraq or Syria was not so desparate and called for Irans help there wont be Ir advisers or equipment.When daesh is purged away and security condition improves if Iran decides to stay contrary to the respective govts decisions then it would be a different case altogether.

Iran making agreements with Syria and Iraq for the conditions of advisers to return back would further clarify this issue in my opinion.
 
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