Are Iranians lying about the ”10 seconds reaction time”.

[Philosopher]

I have pointed out the reaction time depending on where the Tor M1 was located relative the flight. There is no assumption involved. The equations are enough to draw a conclusion since they look at the extreme points.

You nor anyone else here knows where the Tor-m1 was located, so yes, you are making assumptions.

If the operator did not have a continous search that is also not a sign of competency.

Short ranged systems are not actively scanning 24/7. They turn on their active detection when they are told to. This is why I said, we don't know when this particular system started scanning. Combined that with the fact we don't know exactly where it was located, then it is more than possible for operator to have less than a 10 second window to decide whether to shoot or not.

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

You nor anyone else here knows where the Tor-m1 was located, so yes, you are making assumptions.




Short ranged systems are not actively scanning 24/7. They turn on their active detection when they are told to. This is why I told said, we don't know when this particular system started scanning. Combined that with the fact we don't know exactly where it was located, then it is more than possible for operator to have less than a 10 second window to decide whether to shoot or not.

I looked at the extreme cases where the flight was detected right above the Tor M1 and when it was at the extreme range.
If a flight at extreme range was flying away, then it certainly was not an attack on the base protected by the Tor M1 system.
In none of these cases there was a 10 second reaction time.
There is NO assumption involved.
It is known that Iran expected an attack following the missile strike.
To then disable the radar is not a sign of competency.

If they turn on the radar system so it becomes active giving 10 seconds reaction time,
it is a clear sign that there is ANOTHER radar which has detected the flight and which did not classify the flight as civilian. Again not looking good.
A claim that it was a cooincidence would be ridiculous.

 

[Philosopher]

I looked at the extreme cases where the flight was detected right above the Tor M1 and when it was at the extreme range.
In none of these cases there was a 10 second reaction time.

I am aware of your assumptions. I said already, it's a waste of time to keep creating hypothetical scenarios. We need to wait until more information is out with details.

It is known that Iran expected an attack following the missile strike.
To then disable the radar is not a sign of competency.

I did not say the radars were disabled, I said we don't know when this particular system started actively scanning.

If they turn on the radar system so it becomes active giving 10 seconds reaction time,
it is a clear sign that there is ANOTHER radar which has detected the flight and which did not classify the flight as civilian. Again not looking good.

That's another assumption. It could have been this system was taken into action and started scanning after being given the order to expect cruise missiles. It seems that after the missile attacks, the US started sending quite a few airborne targets, once Iran detected that, they prepared extensively for cruise missile attacks. Early warning radars are always on, once they detect something, these short range systems start scanning as well. Obviously many air defence systems were on alert anyway, but not everything would have been activated until given the go ahead, specially air defences so deep inside the country. It was also around this time when the request to ground airliners was not granted. What we also know is that the operator lost communication with the rest of the command chain.

It's quite naive in my opinion to just say "this happened because the operator was incompetent". Clearly many factors played a hand here. Like I said, the biggest issue here was the request for grounding the air fleet being denied. That is the major factor and whoever responsible should be executed. That is the incompetence and treason, so let's not blame the military.

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

• I am aware of your assumptions. I said already, it's a waste of time to keep creating hypothetical scenarios. We need to wait until more information is out with details.

I did not say the radars were disabled, I said we don't know when this particular system started actively scanning.

That's another assumption. It could have been this system was taken into action and started scanning after being given the order to expect cruise missiles. It seems that after the missile attacks, the US started sending quite a few airborne targets, once Iran detected that, they prepared extensively for cruise missile attacks. Early warning radars are always on, once they detect something, these short range systems start scanning as well. Obviously many air defence systems were on alert anyway, but not everything would have been activated until given the go ahead, specially air defences so deep inside the country. It was also around this time when the request to ground airliners was not granted. What we also know is that the operator lost communication with the rest of the command chain.

It's quite naive in my opinion to just say "this happened because the operator was incompetent". Clearly many factors played a hand here. Like I said, the biggest issue here was the request for grounding the air fleet being denied. That is the major factor and whoever responsible should be executed. That is the incompetence and treason, so let's not blame the military.

You are making assumptions that Iranian official statements are true.
We do not know if the communications was lost.
We only know that the Iranians stated that it was lost.

It is a strange cooincidence that for this to work all the things had to happen within a minute.

• The plane takes off
• The order is given to turn on the Tor M1 without any other radar detecting the flight.
• The communication is lost.

 

[Philosopher]

You are making assumptions that Iranian official statements are true.

Yes, I am. That's still better than creating my own hypothesis. Like I said, you do not have to believe their statement, but whether you are willing to accept, it is an official statement and that hold much more worth than some individuals creating their own hypothesis without any real evidence. If there was actual evidence against their story, I would have seen that, but there is nothing of the such.

We do not know if the communications was lost.
We only know that the Iranians stated that it was lost.

And once again, unless you have actual proof to suggest that is not the case, then I will go with the officials as they have the details.

It is a strange cooincidence that for this to work all the things had to happen within a minute.

• The plane takes off
• The order is given to turn on the Tor M1 without any other radar detecting the flight.
• The communication is lost.

It is not strange at all. It explains why such a tragic incident, which otherwise should not have occurred, happened.
Iran has shot down intruding planes etc many times in the past, RQ-4, RQ-170 and they even shot down UAV inside their space and such a thing had never happened. In this case, many unfortunate factors led to this unfortunate circumstance. The people(s) responsible for not grounding the flights must be punished.

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

And here is the Iranian General explaining that the missile was fired from the Bidganeh base at a distance of 19 km.

• 19/275*60 = 4,14 minutes.

So it would take over 4 minutes for the flight to reach the base.

There are of course people that studied the available material and believe this is another lie.
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/men...-missile-strike-geolocated-to-iranian-suburb/

Considering that the operational range of the Tor M1 is only 12 km, one would not be surprised if they are right.
It could of course be a lie that a Tor M1 was used, or a lie where the missile was fired from.
Maybe someone confused the range of the Tor M1 radar (25km) with the operational range (12 km), so the obvious lie was not apparent.

 

[Philosopher]

Once again, nothing to suggest this incident was not what they claimed. I have read all of your references, but not a single one of them has incontrovertible analysis and are based mostly on assumptions and speculations, like your own. Going by the actual information released, this "10 second" claim is more than possible.

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

Once again, nothing to suggest this incident was not what they claimed. I have read all of your references, but not a single one of them has incontrovertible analysis and are based mostly on assumptions and speculations, like your own. Going by the actual information released, this "10 second" claim is more than possible.

Unfortunately the head of the Republican Guard has said that all systems were active at the time and could launch by a press of a button.
He has also said that there was no request to stop civil aviation. Thus it cannot have been denied.

The normal procedure is to ask for permission before firing.
That did not happen, and he did not know why, but suggested jamming (from who?) or disturbances due to other transmission.
Another plausible explanation is that a trigger happy operator ignored the procedure or simply forgot to follow procedure.
What is plausible is that the operator fired the missile within 10 seconds of detection.

If You trust the official comments from the general you know that it would take 4 minutes for the flight to reach the Bidganah base, and that is not speculation.

 

[Philosopher]

Unfortunately the head of the Republican Guard has said that all systems were active at the time and could launch by a press of a button.

Active "at the time". What is meant is the system was activated at that time.

He has also said that there was no request to stop civil aviation. Thus it cannot have been denied.

This is not true. In the Persian statement, they have clearly stated they asked for flights to be grounded.

@mohsen @VEVAK

[QUOTE]
The normal procedure is to ask for permission before firing. [/QUOTE]

Not in a potential conflict, these system are given autonomy.


[QUOTE]
Another plausible explanation is that a trigger happy operator ignored the procedure or simply forgot to follow procedure.
What is plausible is that the operator fired the missile within 10 seconds of detection.
[/QUOTE]

To be perfectly honest, this is much harder to believe than the actual official statement.

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

Active "at the time". What is meant is the system was activated at that time.



This is not true. In the Persian statement, they have clearly stated they asked for flights to be grounded.

@mohsen @VEVAK



Not in a potential conflict, these system are given autonomy.




To be perfectly honest, this is much harder to believe than the actual official statement.

No it does not mean that it was activated at that moment.
It meant that it was active before the flight started.

”At several stages, the Alert Level 3, which is the highest level, is communicated and emphasized to the entire network. So all air defence systems were at highest alert level. For several times, these systems including the one involved in the incident were notified by the integrated network that cruise missiles have been fired at the country. For a couple of times, they receive reports that ‘the cruise missiles are coming, be prepared’. So you see the systems were at the highest alert level, where you should just press a button. ”

As for asking for flight restrictions:
”No look, the problem was not with the Aviation Organization. They weren’t asked to [restrict the flights]. The blame is on the Armed Forces.”
The OPERATORs asked their commanders to request flight restrictions, and the commanders did not make the request. So according to the general it is all their responsibility.

The general claims that this is the operating procedure, but I guess you only trust him when it fits your narrative.

 

[Philosopher]

No it does not mean that it was activated at that moment.
It meant that it was active before the flight started.

”At several stages, the Alert Level 3, which is the highest level, is communicated and emphasized to the entire network. So all air defence systems were at highest alert level. For several times, these systems including the one involved in the incident were notified by the integrated network that cruise missiles have been fired at the country. For a couple of times, they receive reports that ‘the cruise missiles are coming, be prepared’. So you see the systems were at the highest alert level, where you should just press a button. ”

This does not say anything regarding when those "several stages" were with relating to this tor m-1. I already told you that these system would be turned on once early warning etc tells them to suspect an attack. So this does not really counter any of what I said. The question is WHEN were they told to go on full alert mode.

As for asking for flight restrictions:
”No look, the problem was not with the Aviation Organization. They weren’t asked to [restrict the flights]. The blame is on the Armed Forces.”
The OPERATORs asked their commanders to request flight restrictions, and the commanders did not make the request. So according to the general it is all their responsibility.

So like I said, the problem here lies with the people that did not enforce the ground command. Even if this person in question is a military officer, it's pretty stupid to be blaming the operators etc. It's one person and their error. It's not an inherent problem with the air defence itself.

The general claims that this is the operating procedure, but I guess you only trust him when it fits your narrative.

And nothing he says is out of the ordinary for an air defence. Like I said many, MANY times already. The problem here lies with that treasonous moron whom did not enforce the grounding of the air feet.

 

[VEVAK]

Active "at the time". What is meant is the system was activated at that time.



This is not true. In the Persian statement, they have clearly stated they asked for flights to be grounded.

@mohsen @VEVAK



Not in a potential conflict, these system are given autonomy.




To be perfectly honest, this is much harder to believe than the actual official statement.

There were repeated request to have the Airspace cleared of all civilian flights! Even the Unit that fire the shot had requested for it....

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

This does not say anything regarding when those "several stages" were with relating to this tor m-1. I already told you that these system would be turned on once early warning etc tells them to suspect an attack. So this does not really counter any of what I said. The question is WHEN were they told to go on full alert mode.



So like I said, the problem here lies with the people that did not enforce the ground command. Even if this person in question is a military officer, it's pretty stupid to be blaming the operators etc. It's one person and their error. It's not an inherent problem with the air defence itself.



And nothing he says is out of the ordinary for an air defence. Like I said many, MANY times already. The problem here lies with that treasonous moron whom did not enforce the grounding of the air feet.

What part of ”were at the highest alert level” do you not understand?

Who to blame is totally irrelevant for the topic of this thread.

The question is if the operator needed to fire within 10 seconds of detection,
and the answer is a resounding NO.

 

[Philosopher]

What part of ”were at the highest alert level” do you not understand?

What part of "we don't know when they were told to go on full alert" do YOU not understand?

Who to blame is totally irrelevant for the topic of this thread.

relevant to the full topic.

The question is if the operator needed to fire within 10 seconds of detection,
and the answer is a resounding NO.

You been making this claim form the beginning but have given not a single actual proof except speculations and assumptions. Sorry, not good enough.

 

[A.P. Richelieu]

What part of "we don't know when they were told to go on full alert" do YOU not understand?



relevant to the full topic.



You been making this claim form the beginning but have given not a single actual proof except speculations and assumptions. Sorry, not good enough.

Your comments can safely be ignored since they ignore the statement from the general which makes it crystal clear that the systems were not turned off.

The full topic is : Did Iran lie about the 10 second reaction time.
You want to make it a different topic, but that is not your decision.

Since you call actual calculations based on known facts assumptions and speculation, you are now on ignore. We have nothing else to discuss.

The creation date of your account (Jan 5, 2020) is not helping your case.