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Another Hezbollah-israel round looming

ResurgentIran

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This is just an opinion and prediction.
I think now that a comprehensive settlement to Iran's nuclear program is going to be negotiated in July this year, we will see another war between israel and Hezbollah (much more intense than 2006), potentially also involving Hamas. Perhaps even Syria, but maybe thats a little far fetched.
I think israel will do it to poison the political atmosphere in the US by blaming Iran's support of "terrorism" and make nuclear deal politically impossible for Obama administration.
I also believe the israelis will want to start something because they have to get back their deterrence capability, which eroded in 2006 conflict.

I think a major war is looming around the corner in June/July.

@Hazzy997 @haman10 @Syrian Lion @Serpentine @kollang @mohsen @SOHEIL @S00R3NA @SinaG @JEskandari @MTN1917 @Islam shall be the winner @Ceylal
 
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Hmm...I'm not sure how Iran views it though, we need confidential military information. I feel like Iran is now realizing it most likely won't come down to a deal and this is why they have to put their military face back on and they have been making warnings recently.

I also need to know what efforts are being made to smuggle effective technology to Hezbollah in the recent months and what efforts would be made in the next 6 months.

I don't believe Israel will go alone my friend, if you believe it's a either done deal or war scenario than I'm sorry to tell you they will succeed in getting the USA to attack Iran. Unless, your only hope is American population. If they can got the administration to stay out of the Syrian conflict I don't see why we can't do it with Iran but for some odd reason polls indicate Americans would support a attack. Which to be honest doesn't sound right, but you also have had propaganda day in and day out for 10 years now by Jewish directed media so people will always support war against those 3 entities.

As for deterrence capability, unfortunately they will probably attack Gaza as usual attack an isolated impoverished strip of land and murder more Palestinian civilians. If you remember the last offensive, in the first 3 days there were about 24 casualties, of those 8 were resistance fighters. The resistance fighters have succeeded in their strategy and Israel was having trouble finding resistance fighters so of course the next 5 days they started increasing the intensity against civilians and close to 80-100 civilians were killed. Resistance fighters numbered no more than 40.

I think it is early to predict a war scenario, but for Lebanon they will target civilians because they will not be able to break Hezbollah apart. Hezbollah along with Hamas have underground complexes and Hezbollah has many bunkers and openings which are very well concealed and Israel will have a very difficult time preventing rocket fire so this is why they are threatening to carpet bomb civilians and in return if they take it too far Hezbollah should target Dimona and tel aviv. Hezbollah won't go down my worry is civilians because Israel can't win wars such as these and now Hezbollah has tunnels wide enough to fit jeeps carrying rocket launchers and they have like openings where they will do the job and return safely and reload.

I know israel can't win the at but they can destroy civilian infrastructure and murder and maim civilians.

However, I don't know if they are capable of an attack on Iran but probably they are, I'm just not sure how Iran would deal with it. Any ideas?

And why did this thought come to your head of a looming war? Did you read an article or something?
 
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I am not sure. If it will happen, then it won't be good for Hezbollah and Syria, as they are already entangled in the Syrian Civil War. Maybe Israel will want to take advantage of that in order to spread Hezbollah forces even thinner then they currently are. It could also be a tactical ploy by Israel to draw the US into the conflict as Israel are not getting their way with the Nuke negotiations.
 
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Israelis won't start a new war with Hezbollah. It would have no point and the end of war would be vague. Hezbollah has much more advanced equipment now that Israel may not be aware of some of them, and it may have also changed its tactic, no one knows. One thing for sure, they have prepared themselves for this in years, just like Israel, so this war would be a lose lose for both Israel and Lebanon. Netanyahu is a nutjob indeed, but he is not suicidal.
 
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Hizbullat thinks that Syria is Israel, so don't bother ...

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Do Hezbollah even need new equipment. The Kornets and rpgs did well enough in 2006. Just like old times israel will order the civilian infrastructure to be targeted. :sniper:
 
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Do Hezbollah even need new equipment. The Kornets and rpgs did well enough in 2006. Just like old times israel will order the civilian infrastructure to be targeted. :sniper:

Yes they do, both newer and more advanced rockets as goes for anti tank weapons. Israel updates too, they have systems installed and some of their infantry and have missile defense systems all over the country.
 
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Hmm...I'm not sure how Iran views it though, we need confidential military information. I feel like Iran is now realizing it most likely won't come down to a deal and this is why they have to put their military face back on and they have been making warnings recently.

I also need to know what efforts are being made to smuggle effective technology to Hezbollah in the recent months and what efforts would be made in the next 6 months.

I don't believe Israel will go alone my friend, if you believe it's a either done deal or war scenario than I'm sorry to tell you they will succeed in getting the USA to attack Iran. Unless, your only hope is American population. If they can got the administration to stay out of the Syrian conflict I don't see why we can't do it with Iran but for some odd reason polls indicate Americans would support a attack. Which to be honest doesn't sound right, but you also have had propaganda day in and day out for 10 years now by Jewish directed media so people will always support war against those 3 entities.

As for deterrence capability, unfortunately they will probably attack Gaza as usual attack an isolated impoverished strip of land and murder more Palestinian civilians. If you remember the last offensive, in the first 3 days there were about 24 casualties, of those 8 were resistance fighters. The resistance fighters have succeeded in their strategy and Israel was having trouble finding resistance fighters so of course the next 5 days they started increasing the intensity against civilians and close to 80-100 civilians were killed. Resistance fighters numbered no more than 40.

I think it is early to predict a war scenario, but for Lebanon they will target civilians because they will not be able to break Hezbollah apart. Hezbollah along with Hamas have underground complexes and Hezbollah has many bunkers and openings which are very well concealed and Israel will have a very difficult time preventing rocket fire so this is why they are threatening to carpet bomb civilians and in return if they take it too far Hezbollah should target Dimona and tel aviv. Hezbollah won't go down my worry is civilians because Israel can't win wars such as these and now Hezbollah has tunnels wide enough to fit jeeps carrying rocket launchers and they have like openings where they will do the job and return safely and reload.

I know israel can't win the at but they can destroy civilian infrastructure and murder and maim civilians.

However, I don't know if they are capable of an attack on Iran but probably they are, I'm just not sure how Iran would deal with it. Any ideas?

And why did this thought come to your head of a looming war? Did you read an article or something?

I didnt read an article, but it was rather a prediction from my end. Sooner or later there will be another round between israel and Hezbollah, which I think will be a much bigger war. Of that Im positive. Because Israel has to get its deterrence back which was lost in 2006, when it was dealt a severe blow. Actually not only in 2006 but also in 2000 when israel withdrew in shame after 18 years occupation of souther Lebanon. It has been defeated twice now, in the sense that in both instances it did not achieve any of its strategic and political objectives (security zone etc).
Hezbollah views israel as a paper tiger that is not to be feared. This is like a dagger to Israel's strategic doctrine, which is a doctrine that says that the wider Middle East must fear israel and its military power.
So ultimately I think there will be another round. Its inevitable Im afraid.
You need to understand that Zionism is extremely short sighted and can not what analyze and think about what consequences their actions will have beyond the short term.
A perfect example of that is the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem. In the short term it has benefits for Israel, but down the line they are risking their international standing and legitimacy.
This is the nature of the Zionist ideology (and state) which cant see what happens beyond the short-medium term. It is intrinsically incapable of thinking of longer term consequences.

The best time to start some kind of conflict would be now, to derail any final deal. A comprehensive settlement pretty much eliminates the military option on Iran, and makes it less likely that Obama will pursue a regional strategy to contain or isolate Iran. Which would change the strategic landscape of the Middle East, something Israel can not fathom or tolerate.
I believe the Obama administration wants the final deal badly, but is hindered by powerful political forces (AIPAC, neocons, right wing republicans).
The US public still view Iran in a very negative light. The embassy take over and some Iranian covert actions (Beirut bombing 1982 etc) has left deep scars. Plus all the virulent propaganda by the pro-Zionist media in US.
Iranians on the other hand are pretty pro-American (the people) despite previous and current US policies towards Iran.


There are more advanced weapons going to Hezbollah from Syria, but they are transported in parts to avoid detection.

Hezbollah Upgrades Missile Threat to Israel - WSJ.com
 
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Israelis won't start a new war with Hezbollah. It would have no point and the end of war would be vague. Hezbollah has much more advanced equipment now that Israel may not be aware of some of them, and it may have also changed its tactic, no one knows. One thing for sure, they have prepared themselves for this in years, just like Israel, so this war would be a lose lose for both Israel and Lebanon. Netanyahu is a nutjob indeed, but he is not suicidal.
I agree with you..Israel is loosing its political support in Europe, as well as in America. The world is tired of war. Beside attacking Hizbollah will not bode well with the Israeli themselves, who remember very well the outcome of their last venture in Lebanon.
For Iran, as I always said, the west and Israel included will accommodate with a nuclear Iran. We are witnessing the same precedent when India and Pakistan detonated their respective bombs. Both countries, Pakistan more so where under extreme pressure from the US to abandon their programs. When Pakistan and India came out of the closet with their ware, the US and the rest of the world just learned to live with it. Identical scenario for Iran. They know that Iran has succeeded in weaponizing their uranium and conducted several successful tests , year and half ago...Just the fact of talking to Iran, is a recognition enough by the west their failure to subdue Iran.
 
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I agree, it's a problem with the republican base which wouldn't mind sending this country into a ditch. I however still believe Israel would be hesitant to launch an attack on Iran anytime soon. Even if deal wasn't reached they would still give it time.

As for Hezbollah, they can face Israel like Hamas they have courage but last war in 2006 I read that Israel destroyed all their longer range rockets on the first day of the war which is odd. Hezbollah can't allow that to happen again, they need to do a great job concealing them so they can be effective in a war. Even Hamas managed to conceal some fajr 5 rockets.

Let me tell you how it works, Hezbollah knowing full well Israel's has surveillance and is watching their movements brings these advanced missiles into homes or structures. However, they don't stay there, in these structures there are tunnels built in under them and they transfer them through those tunnels to underground 'silos' or locations or move it to separate private buildings so they should be difficult to detect.

Hezbollah also tries deception, they will make fake bunkers, decoy rockets, and send false information to Israeli intelligence through double agents.

They need good intelligence this time and if they don't achieve massive casualties against the IDF then the morale will go down and Israeli society will support further war.

For Gaza it's a different story they don't need to achieve what Hezbollah needs to.

@ResurgentIran
 
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Israelis won't start a new war with Hezbollah. It would have no point and the end of war would be vague. Hezbollah has much more advanced equipment now that Israel may not be aware of some of them, and it may have also changed its tactic, no one knows. One thing for sure, they have prepared themselves for this in years, just like Israel, so this war would be a lose lose for both Israel and Lebanon. Netanyahu is a nutjob indeed, but he is not suicidal.

I hear what you're saying, but I also refer to my earlier point. The intrinsic problem of the Zionist ideology is that it can not rationally think about what long term consequences their actions will have, but rather just thinks about the immediate short term benefit.
It may very well be that they want a destructive war (even if its destructive for them) to garner international support against the "terrorists" and make it politically impossible to negotiate a satsfying nuclear deal.
 
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I dont know about any other engagement but about Syria, I dont think the Israelis are naive enough to jump into such as shit storm, there are many factions with several thousands of fighters and an attack by an outsider ''infidel'' force may unite them and this would spell disaster for the Israelis, plus hamas and hezbollah are not the same now as they were in earlier conflicts, their tactics and weapons are probably more advanced
 
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Israel will make no mistake of invading Syria. If it does so, the Muslims of the world would do jihad against Israel. :bounce: Iraq alone has many times the population of Israel. Think of the nightmare of fighting insurgency from all over the Muslim world.
 
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If Israel picks up the fight then that would be possible.

If not, I suspect that Hezbollah is going to waste its arsenal rather than saving it in case of a confrontation with Iran in near future - if possible -
 
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