Another Hezbollah-israel round looming

[PeaceGen]

This is just an opinion and prediction.
I think now that a comprehensive settlement to Iran's nuclear program is going to be negotiated in July this year, we will see another war between israel and Hezbollah (much more intense than 2006), potentially also involving Hamas. Perhaps even Syria, but maybe thats a little far fetched.
I think israel will do it to poison the political atmosphere in the US by blaming Iran's support of "terrorism" and make nuclear deal politically impossible for Obama administration.
I also believe the israelis will want to start something because they have to get back their deterrence capability, which eroded in 2006 conflict.

I think a major war is looming around the corner in June/July.

Could be. Without recurring violence, religious extremists lose their hold on power eh, coz they don't know how to achieve peace or what to do with peace.

As for Israel poisoning anything, they'd be right in this case. Iranian nuclear enrichment has gotta stop, I agree with them.

 

[hussain0216]

Israel was arrogant and very sure of itself in 2006 War. The 2006 War was a sobering reminder to Israel to fully plan and execute for War. And this showed in 2009, when Israel took out Hamas in Gaza with very few casualties.

Another fight between Israel and Hezbollah, Israel will perform very well.

There is no comparison between Hamas and Hezbollah,

I respect hamas for their resistance in the face of overwhealming odds but they neither have the resources or depth to be able to do what hezbollah can do.

Israel is a heavily armed state, but if you can hit and kill their soldiers and armour with weapons like the kornet & make use of bunkers and tunnels then israel will have alot of trouble trying to go for the ground war occupation option, it made that mistake once & any ground incursion will be costly.


So a well planned air campaign is israels best option, however against Hamas all they are facing is the most basic of home made rockets (ok maybe a little better then that but not by much) Gaza has no strategic depth and can be extensivley monitored for movement and point of origin for missle fire etc so 2-3 month campaign israel can attack Gaza knowing that generally it will only face the basic rockets and the risk is from lucky shots rather then anything else. Hamas may only have a a handfull of more capabale missiles.

Hezbollah is different in that whilst alot of its missile arsenal is also basic rockets it also has more capable missiles Israel in conjunction with the U.S will have planned, a war will be planned, they will take a good look in the weeks/months/even years before any planned war of where their targets are

The last war was much more sudden and the lack of planning on israels part is what got it stuck, it resorted to "time tested" plans.

As long as Hezbollah can build bunkers, tunnels and can increase its missile arsenal with more accurate and longer distance missiles it will be able to hurt Israel.

In the next war Hezbollah MUST plan to put all of israel under its range, if it can repeatedly hit major israeli cities and economic area's effectivley putting on a trade embargo whilst the war is happening then israel has a major reason not to attack hezbollah

 

[ResurgentIran]

Could be. Without recurring violence, religious extremists lose their hold on power eh, coz they don't know how to achieve peace or what to do with peace.

As for Israel poisoning anything, they'd be right in this case. Iranian nuclear enrichment has gotta stop, I agree with them.

Nice dream.
And in case you didnt know, the joint plan of action states that enrichment on Iranian soil will be part of the comprehensive deal. The only thing that will be negotiated is the scope of it.

Another thing, the interim agreement also makes clear the final comprehensive agreement will have what is a called a "sunset clause". Meaning that the "final" deal itself will have an expiration date (we are talking about several years here though, not months), after which Iran will treated as any other NPT-member and can move full steam ahead with mass industrial enrichment.
Also with no limits to technology and other things, so we could install our new generation centrifuges which is 15 times more powerful than the current ones.

Enrichment gotta go? LOL
You are out of touch with reality

 

[PeaceGen]

Nice dream.
And in case you didnt know, the joint plan of action states that enrichment on Iranian soil will be part of the comprehensive deal. The only thing that will be negotiated is the scope of it.

Another thing, the interim agreement also makes clear the final comprehensive agreement will have what is a called a "sunset clause". Meaning that the "final" deal itself will have an expiration date (we are talking about several years here though, not months), after which Iran will treated as any other NPT-member and can move full steam ahead with mass industrial enrichment.
Also with no limits to technology and other things, so we could install our new generation centrifuges which is 15 times more powerful than the current ones.

Enrichment gotta go? LOL
You are out of touch with reality

Yes, in my opinion enrichment by Iran has gotta stop. Just because the major superpowers of earth don't agree to this, doesn't make it less right.

 

[ResurgentIran]

Yes, in my opinion enrichment by Iran has gotta stop. Just because the major superpowers of earth don't agree to this, doesn't make it less right.

Well wish in one hand, and shit in the other. See which ever one fills up first. Mmmkay?

Even the US has surrendered and de facto acknowledged that Iranian enrichment will not stop, and that Iranian enrichment program will be part of ANY "final" comprehensive deal.
Deal with it.

 

[PeaceGen]

Well wish in one hand, and shit in the other. See which ever one fills up first. Mmmkay?

Even the US has surrendered and de facto acknowledged that Iranian enrichment will not stop, and that Iranian enrichment program will be part of ANY "final" comprehensive deal.
Deal with it.

i'm gonna try to change that status quo. not to piss you off, but because i think the Iranians are structurallly 'asking for too much', AND have been proven by the I.A.E.A. to be enriching well beyond 'industrial' and 'medical' levels.

 

[ResurgentIran]

i'm gonna try to change that status quo. not to piss you off, but because i think the Iranians are structurallly 'asking for too much', AND have been proven by the I.A.E.A. to be enriching well beyond 'industrial' and 'medical' levels.

Piss me off? Believe me, Im amused.
Change it in your dreams

 

[PeaceGen]

Piss me off? Believe me, Im amused.
Change it in your dreams

wouldn't be the first time i changed geopolitical things.. and now i'll stop trying to worry you Iranian defenders, and get to the actual task. darn, why didn't i see this earlier?... well, i won't be making the same mistake with any other culture!

 

[ResurgentIran]

wouldn't be the first time i changed geopolitical things.. and now i'll stop trying to worry you Iranian defenders, and get to the actual task. darn, why didn't i see this earlier?... well, i won't be making the same mistake with any other culture!

 

[PeaceGen]

i love a challenge.

 

[Falcon29]

There is no comparison between Hamas and Hezbollah,

I respect hamas for their resistance in the face of overwhealming odds but they neither have the resources or depth to be able to do what hezbollah can do.

Israel is a heavily armed state, but if you can hit and kill their soldiers and armour with weapons like the kornet & make use of bunkers and tunnels then israel will have alot of trouble trying to go for the ground war occupation option, it made that mistake once & any ground incursion will be costly.


So a well planned air campaign is israels best option, however against Hamas all they are facing is the most basic of home made rockets (ok maybe a little better then that but not by much) Gaza has no strategic depth and can be extensivley monitored for movement and point of origin for missle fire etc so 2-3 month campaign israel can attack Gaza knowing that generally it will only face the basic rockets and the risk is from lucky shots rather then anything else. Hamas may only have a a handfull of more capabale missiles.

Hezbollah is different in that whilst alot of its missile arsenal is also basic rockets it also has more capable missiles Israel in conjunction with the U.S will have planned, a war will be planned, they will take a good look in the weeks/months/even years before any planned war of where their targets are

The last war was much more sudden and the lack of planning on israels part is what got it stuck, it resorted to "time tested" plans.

As long as Hezbollah can build bunkers, tunnels and can increase its missile arsenal with more accurate and longer distance missiles it will be able to hurt Israel.

In the next war Hezbollah MUST plan to put all of israel under its range, if it can repeatedly hit major israeli cities and economic area's effectivley putting on a trade embargo whilst the war is happening then israel has a major reason not to attack hezbollah

You're thinking of Hamas of 2009-2010' everything's changed since then some of their capabilities are better than Hezbollah's, they each have pros and cons due to their locational advantage but both have hundreds of 'long range' rockets now although Hezbollah has many more and both have Kornet, bunkers, tunnels. Hezbollah has more freedom so more quantity, quality, intelligence, communication systems, more rocket launchers, guided missiles, better equipment and training.

Hamas has an underground city in Gaza and I will quote you a report that just came out a couple days ago but beware it only mentions their capabilities and not Israel's. So if you consider context it's not much significant because Israel has intelligence, air campaign, and defense systems.

http://www.israelhayom.com/site/newsletter_article.php?id=15419

The likelihood of a third intifada breaking out is low, but Hamas has amassed hundreds of rockets that can hit central Israel, according to Israeli Defense Forces officials.

........
But Hamas has not been sitting idly by. The IDF believes that the group has made a shift from relying on smuggling in weapons through tunnels toward a focus on locally produced weaponry. Hamas, according to IDF assessments, and now has a stockpile of hundreds of M-75 rockets that can hit central Israel. It is also believed that this arsenal of long-range rockets will grow significantly over the next year.

"An underground tunnel city is being built in the Gaza Strip, and could be used to move forces around and protect Hamas commanders in case of a future conflict with Israel," an IDF official said.

...........
Hamas can hit Tel Aviv, Jerusalem with dozens of rockets | The Times of Israel

What is clear, The Times of Israel has learned, is that when the next round of conflict does come, the IDF and the home front will be facing a Hamas with immensely greater capabilities to fire on central Israel, thanks to its domestic rocket production, and a much-enhanced capacity to defend itself against Israeli air and ground capabilities by virtue of its new underground networks.

...........

 

[Serpentine]

wouldn't be the first time i changed geopolitical things.. and now i'll stop trying to worry you Iranian defenders, and get to the actual task. darn, why didn't i see this earlier?... well, i won't be making the same mistake with any other culture!

Changing geopolitical things by hanging around an internet forum in front of a monitor?

We weren't planning on stopping enrichment , but now that you said, we have no other choice.

 

[PeaceGen]

Changing geopolitical things by hanging around an internet forum in front of a monitor?

don't underestimate the powers of a 1-man teleporting thinktank plz

We weren't planning on stopping enrichment , but now that you said, we have no other choice.

well it's the hottest game in peace arranging atm, so yea, we'll see how well i do within 10 years at least