Analyzing North Waziristan

[Bill Longley]

Chronicles of Abu Abdul Samad: OPERATION IN NORTH WAZIRISTAN?

People are talking about expected operation in North Waziristan agency. But is operation possible in NWA and if yes then against whom and also what would be the concussions of the expected operation.


Situation in SWA

· South Waziristan agency was the main centre of Gravity of Tehrik e Taliban Pakistan.

· In Past, in 2004, 2005 and 2008 Army launched 3 failed Operations against TTP

· With a great increase in terrorism acts in country Pakistan army was ordered to launch operation in SWA to flush out TTP.

· PA Launched first Phase of Operation Rah-e- Nijaat on June 19, 2009.

· Three Infantry divisions were involved for operation and for IDP’s help.

· Ground offensive was Launched in October 2009

· Aim of operation was to dislodge Mahsud Taliban and their Foreign Allies mainly Uzbeks.

· Peace deal was signed with Mullah Nazir and Wazir tribe that they will not be touched and they will not touch forces.

· Attack on Mahsud Strong hold was launched from three directions, from Jandola, from Wana and Razmak in North Waziristan.

· Except in few areas TTP failed to give any resistance which proved that Main leadership of TTP was able to escape during first Phase of Operation Rah-e- Nijaat.

· At present Army controls main Mahsud Areas but the complete writ is only on roads and Main areas. Militants are still present in pockets.




OPERATION in Aurak Zai

· Forces started operation in Aurak zai in Earlier December.

· Aurak Zai became centre of gravity of TTP after Operation Rah-e-Nijaat. Most of The Militants and their leaders escaped to Aurak Zai.

· Aurak Zai is Traditional Strong hold of Hakeemullah Mahsud and Other sectarian outfits allied to TTP like Ghazi Force, Lashker Jhungvi etc

· At present around 1 brigade along with FC battalions are engaging TTP Targets.

OPERATION IN KURRAM

· Few Militants found refuge in Kurram Tribal agency.

· Traditionally the agency is battle ground of Shia Sunni Conflict

· 1 brigade along with Kurram Scouts is engaging TTP militants

**Kurram was the hub of sectarian violence, Tull, Parachinar, Sada highway was closed for almost more than 18 months. There were a number of foreign militants who were fighting here and the involvement of neighboring countries is also a fact Officials have said.

OPERATION IN KHYBER

· A brigade Plus Khyber Scouts are engage in Operation against Lashker Islam headed by Mangal Bagh and TTP militants.


** Also Ansar Ul Islam and a group called Amar-bil-Maroof was functioning over here, clashes amongst rival militant groups have killed scores of people in Khyber Agency.

OPERATION IN BAJOR AND MOHMAND

· Army is struggling to establish writ in Bajor agency but due to with drawl of US troops in Nuristan and Kunar province Militants are Getting safe haven in Afghanistan where they run away and regroup to fight another day. Few days Back DG ISPR and DG FC announced Success of Operation in Bajor. But reports coming from Bajor suggest that although forces are in control of Key areas but militants are still strong.

· Same is the case of Mohmand .


** Schools,Basic Health Units and Peace Committees are still facing the brunt of the attacks. In the past one month there has been an increase in militant activity in both agencies. Forces had claimed to have cleared 80% of the areas in Mohmand. Bajor has recently seen a number of violent incidents.

OPERATION IN SWAT/MALAKAND/Dir

· Although Forces broke the Back Bone of TTP Swat and Malakand but there are reports that Militants are re surfacing

· The resurgence of violence and target killings in swat suggest that need of forces to remain in swat can only assure the peace.


**. As far as Lower Dir is concerned the situation there is much worse than Swat.

PAKISTAN ARMY DEPLOYMENT in FATA

· Pakistan Army Consist of 19 Divisions

· 2 Divisions are engage in Counter terrorism in SWA

· 1 Div is stationed in NWA

· 2 Divisions are engage in SWAT , DIR etc

· 1 brigade in Bajor

· 1 brigade in Mohmand

· 1 brigade in Aurakzai

· 1 in Darra Adam Khel

· 1 brigade in Khyber

· 1 brigade in Kurram

· This means so far out of 19 divisions 7 to 8 divisions are participating in Counter terrorism operations.

EXPECTED OPERATION IN NWA

Some Facts.


· NWA IS in habited by Wazir and Dawar tribes

· Both Siraj Haqqani and Hafiz Gul Bahader are Waziri

· Mollana Sadiq Nour is from Dawar Tribe and is Ally of TTP in NWA

· There is strong Presence of Al Qaeda in areas around Mir Ali and Miran Shah.

· This presence of Al Qaeda Includes Punjabi Taliban belonging to Lashker Jhungvi and other sectarian out fits and foreigners especially Arabs, Chechens and Uzbeks.

· Because the terrain is rough and there are less economic opportunities local war lords tend to give refuge to Al Qaeda and those who offer them money.

· According to sources the NWA today is CHOCHO KA MARABA(Confusing mixture of different militants most of them on pay role of CIA ,Mossad and RAW) and situation is very confusing.

· People are hired used and launched in Pakistan for the SAKE OF GREAT GAME IN CENTRAL ASIA.


OPERATION

· So far there is a big confusion regarding expected operation in NWA

· So far forces have not signaled about the target of the operation.

· Pakistan cannot afford to touch Haqqani network or Gul Bahader at this movement.

· Guesses of experts are that the operation will be directed against Al Qaeda, especially against Punjabi Taliban and sectarian out fits operating in Pakistan and against forces of TTP ally Sadiq Noor and Dawar tribe.

· Terror brought by TTP till today will be far less than the compared with that brought by NWA militants and situation will get out of hand.

CONCLUSION



· The main problem is still in FATA. And since North Waziristan is in focus. The main question is What would be the operation in the area aimed at? Because certain groups are still in a peace agreement..

· If Operation Will be directed at Al Qaeda and its Punjabi Associates then what will be the reaction from Haqqanies and Waziri Alliance both in NWA and SWA?

· If Punjabi and Sectarian out fits will be main Target then why their base in South Punjab is still not on radar.

* And Most Importantly Until Operations in Kurram, Khyber and Especially Aurakzai are are concluded the operation in NWA will be very unwise because It will streach troops and help Militants

Chronicles of Abu Abdul Samad: OPERATION IN NORTH WAZIRISTAN?

 

[blueoval79]

Pakistani Military Faces Decision On North Waziristan​

One of Pakistan's most wanted militant leaders is back. And with the return of Hakimullah Mehsud and his brash rhetoric, comes decision time for the Pakistani military.

Months after reports of his death in a U.S. drone strike in mid-January, Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) leader Mehsud resurfaced in a video this week in which he threatens to stage attacks on U.S. soil. The video's authenticity has not been confirmed.

The video -- along with signs that a suspect in a failed car bombing last weekend in New York's Times Square received bomb-making training in Waziristan -- is likely to give new impetus to Washington's demands that the Pakistani military conduct a major operation against Islamist radicals in North Waziristan.

That, combined with rising pressure domestically to establish security, might be enough to convince Islamabad to launch an all-out military offensive in the restive tribal region.

The region was already considered a main hideout of fighters loyal to Afghan Taliban commander Jalaluddin Haqqani and his son, Sirajuddin Haqqani.

The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and its various splinter groups, as well as Al-Qaeda-affiliated Arab extremists who are constantly in the crosshairs of remotely piloted U.S. drones, are also there.

But Islamabad has successfully resisted fighting in the district, even as it mounted large-scale operations in six remaining districts of the Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA) since 2008 -- a 500-kilometer stretch of territory along Pakistan's western border with Afghanistan.

Game Changer?

Senator Afrasiab Khattak, a lawmaker and leader of the governing Awami National Party in the northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province bordering FATA, argues that countering any militant groups operating out of the tribal areas requires going after all of them. "We have yet to see similar actions in North Waziristan, in Orakzai agency, in Mohmand agency," he says.

"In [the tribal district of] Bajaur, we have seen some effective action recently when [the village of] Damadola was captured and some other important militant center was captured by the Frontier Corps and Army," Khattak says. "But we have yet to see this activity expanding into all the tribal areas."

The rumored presence of Mehsud and most of his fighters from the TTP, who apparently fled an ensuing incursion into their South Waziristan stronghold for safe haven in North Waziristan, could be the game changer.

The TTP fighters have already joined up with their extremist allies from Pakistan's eastern Punjab province, known as the Punjabi Taliban, who derive from militant organizations previously active in Indian-administered Kashmir. Some of them come from Sunni extremist organizations that are waging a sectarian war against Shi'a across Pakistan. Most are also reportedly closely linked to Al-Qaeda-affiliated Arabs and were reportedly instrumental in some high-profile attacks against Pakistan's military.

Even while no single leader appears to be leading the extremists in North Waziristan, its status as a militant headquarters appears to be attracting new recruits from the West. Five young Americans are currently on trial in Pakistan for allegedly trying to receive terrorist training to strike American targets. The defendants were arrested late last year as they traveled to Pakistan and attempted to contact extremist militants operating out of North Waziristan.

Militant Jungle

While going on the offensive against domestic security threats -- particularly with the added benefit of appeasing foreign allies -- might seem a logical step for Islamabad, entering North Waziristan comes with immense challenges.

First off, some analysts suggest the ultimate goal is the political and economic development of a marginalized region where extremists have long enjoyed free rein. A military operation, they say, is not necessarily the best way to achieve those goals.

A spate of recent attacks against the estimated 15,000 soldiers in North Waziristan highlights the military dangers lurking in the region. Last week's killing of a kidnapped former Pakistani intelligence official, Khalid Khawaja, by the little-known Asian Tigers militant group shows the degree to which militant groups have morphed in North Waziristan.

Khawaja traveled to the region in late March along with another former Pakistani intelligence official, Sultan Amir Tarar, and Asad Qureshi, a British filmmaker of Pakistani origin. The group had contacts with the militants, and the two former spies were known for their public support of the Taliban.

But the Asian Tigers chose to kidnap them and eventually kill Khawaja to underscore their hostility to the Pakistani military. Pakistani media reports suggest that the Asian Tigers is a front name for the Punjabi Taliban, whose strength in North Waziristan poses a critical dilemma for Islamabad.

Asad Munir -- a retired brigadier general and former Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) agency station chief in Peshawar -- suggests that the military will nevertheless go into North Waziristan, but only after completing its ongoing campaigns in South Waziristan and Orakzai tribal agencies that flank North Waziristan's nearly 5,000-kilometer territory. "They will not launch an operation at the present moment because they are engaged in Orakzai [where] a lot of force has [recently] been pumped in," he says.

"And they have to go after Tirah [valley in Khyber district] from where normally the terrorist come and attack the cities," Munir says. "So they are going to go for North Waziristan, but it may take some time."

Muddled Policy

Time is arguably of the essence in Pakistan's six-year-old struggle against extremists. In Islamabad, analyst Khadim Hussain suggests that Pakistan can only defeat militants if their networks are broken simultaneously in the tribal areas, the Punjab, and the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province between the two regions. "I think there is a need of using different intelligence networks -- different state or military-intelligence networks to cut off their networking points," he says, adding that this will make it easy "to take them on."

Islamabad-based author Zahid Hussain says the military's attitude against the militants changed drastically over the past few years after jihadis declared a war against the state and society in Pakistan. He suggests that Islamabad is still soft, however, on groups that don't directly attack Pakistani forces and cities but instead concentrate on sending fighters to Afghanistan, for example.

Hussain suggests that Pakistan's complicated struggle against extremists needs a clear direction. Islamabad also still needs comprehensive policies to build on its successes in Swat and South Waziristan while at the same time broadening its struggle to all militant groups operating on its soil, he says. "At one point, we were patronizing every militant group and they were supposed to serve Pakistan's regional interest, but that has changed completely," Hussain says.

"The problem is that [the government] has not very clearly defined the policy," he adds. "They have to define national security policy. They have to define counterterrorism policy. Where is the counterterrorism policy?"

In the absence of a comprehensive counterterrorism policy, Pakistani military might opt to rely on U.S. drone strikes, which authorities publically oppose. Public-opinion surveys, however, suggest that such strikes have the quiet support of the people who actually reside in the regions under militant control -- meaning the use of drones can't be ruled out.

Munir, the former Pakistani official, says that drone strikes in North Waziristan have proved to be the best option in the absence of boots on the ground. "They [drone strikes] have broken the backbone of Taliban structure, their basic organization," he says.

"They have denied them free movement. They have prevented them from attacking -- crossing over to Afghanistan. They are very, very effective and I think with minimum collateral damage."

But Munir says that no amount of warfare will ultimately resolve the long-standing problems of Pakistan's impoverished western border region with Afghanistan.

"If there is no strategic development program and it is not implemented quickly and in a transparent way, there are chances that these elements may emerge again," he adds. "They may regroup. And this time if they come, they are going to be more dangerous."

Pakistani Military Faces Decision On North Waziristan - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty 2010

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Pakistan-despite failed NY attack, change will be slow in coming​

May 6, 2010 18:08 EDT
Afghanistan | India | Pakistan | Taliban | Times Square | Waziristan

After the media frenzy following last weekend’s failed car bomb attack on Times Square, you would be forgiven for thinking that something dramatic is about to change in Pakistan. The reality, however, is probably going to be much greyer.

Much attention has naturally focused on North Waziristan, a bastion for al Qaeda, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Afghan fighters including those in the Haqqani network, and the so-called “Punjabi Taliban” - militants from Punjab-based groups who have joined the battle either in Afghanistan or against the Pakistani state. The Pakistan Army is expected to come under fresh pressure to launch an offensive in North Waziristan after Faisal Shahzad, who according to U.S. authorities admitted to the failed car-bombing in Times Square, said he had received training in Waziristan. Unlike other parts of the tribal areas on the Pakistan-Afghan border, North Waziristan has so far been left largely alone.

But it is by no means clear that the Pakistan Army will be rushed into launching a big offensive in North Waziristan. It is already stretched fighting in other parts of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), including in South Waziristan, where it embarked on a major operation last year. Before starting any new offensive, it needs to be sure it is not going to be attacked from the rear, or become so thinly stretched that it loses hard-fought gains elsewhere. As one senior military official told me, you have to be very sure-footed, consolidate your gains, and make sure your bases are secure.

That said, even before the failed Times Square attack, the New York Times suggested Pakistan was beginning to weigh the possibility of tackling militants in North Waziristan. But its decision on timing is unlikely to be dictated by one incident, however dramatic. The Pakistan Army has put considerable energy into improving its image after the tarnishing of the Musharraf years, and is determined to show that when it does launch military offensives, it does so to win. And if there is one thing worse than not going into North Waziristan, it is going in there and losing.

Increased drone missile attacks on targets in North Waziristan are another option. But for drone missile strikes to be successful - taking out militant targets while limiting the civilian deaths which make them so unpopular in Pakistan - you need good intelligence on the ground. The killing in North Waziristan last month of former Pakistan intelligence officer Khalid Khawaja, who reportedly had strong contacts with al Qaeda and the Taliban, leaves a question mark over whether anyone now has really good intelligence on what is happening there.

Meanwhile, uncertainty over the U.S. strategy in Afghanistan is not helping – you can already hear Pakistan Army officers wondering aloud why Pakistan is driving militants out of its tribal areas only for them to escape across the border to live to fight another day.

Nor are tentative peace talks with India likely to lead to a sudden change in Pakistan’s military posture, under which it keeps the bulk of its army on the Indian border. The Pakistan Army already moved a significant number of troops from its Indian border to fight Taliban militants on its Afghan border last year and is unlikely to redeploy more despite an easing of tensions with India – its army chief is reported to say that the military deals with capabilities rather than intentions.

Moreover, the talks are not expected to yield an early breakthrough on Kashmir, belying hopes the two countries might be able to find their way back to a compromise roadmap for peace on Kashmir agreed with India by former president Pervez Musharraf. Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi repeated this week that Pakistan is returning to its historical stand on Kashmir after “wavering” by the Musharraf government.

Beyond Pakistan’s tribal areas is a nexus of militant groups and militant sympathisers, any one of whom could have helped Faisal Shahzad find his way to Waziristan. And that too is unlikely to change soon.

Karachi is full of Pashtun labyrinthine no-go areas where even the police do not dare go. As one Karachi-based senior journalist graphically put it, at the outer edges of these areas you can still buy CDs and Pashtun ****. Further in, are any number of places where Taliban commanders and other militants can hide. Yet as is the case everywhere in South Asia, you can always find someone, who knows someone, who knows someone who will lead you to a militant commander if you really want to find them.

So far it is unclear whether Shahzad was radicalised in the United States and followed that route through Karachi in search of training – if so, as Steve Coll suggests, he might have been treated as a possible U.S. spy and given only rudimentary training – or whether Pakistan-based militant groups played a more active role in recruiting him. If it is the former, you are stuck with the problem of policing a country of 170 million people with a relatively weak police force. If it is the latter, you come back to the limitations of the North Waziristan offensive.

The country’s heartland Punjab province has long been a base for militant groups, some of whom were originally nurtured to fight India in Kashmir. Among them, Jaish-e-Mohammed has been linked to Shahzad; while the Lashkar-e-Taiba was blamed by India for the Nov. 2008 attack on Mumbai. But Pakistan is reluctant to open a new front against militants in Punjab, with officials saying they fear this may make the situation even more unstable by driving some groups together while also further splintering a militant movement whose fragmentation is making it harder and harder to control.

None of that means nothing will change in Pakistan. It just means that whatever happens will be slow, fragile and open to reversal.

Peace talks with India could ease tensions between the two countries over Afghanistan where both have competed for influence for decades. Over the very long haul, a peace agreement with its larger neighbour could help resolve an identity crisis which has gripped Pakistan since Muslim leaders of then British India insisted on creating their own nation in 1947 hoping to build a state which would offer peace, security and democratic rights to the people of the minority religion of the subcontinent.

Pakistan has also begun a painful transition to democracy after years of on-again off-again military rule. If the current civilian government serves out its full term and then is replaced by another civilian government in a democratic election, it will be the first time in Pakistan’s history that this has happened.

It is also a country which historically has had a tendency to be heavily affected by external events, not just limited to its immediate neighbourhood, although these have been dramatic, particularly after the Islamic Revolution in neighbouring Iran in 1979 and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan later that year. As a Muslim country, popular sentiment in Pakistan is also strongly influenced by less proximate developments like the situation in Iraq and the Middle East. So what happens in Afghanistan will be a crucial, but not the only, factor in determining what happens in the months and years to come in Pakistan.

What does seem unlikely is that a country which has been wrestling with many contradictory currents for more than 60 years will change overnight in a way which will make the people of the United States less jumpy whenever they see an SUV parked in a crowded place without a driver.

Pakistan-despite failed NY attack, change will be slow in coming | Analysis & Opinion |

 

[H2O3C4Nitrogen]

OPS in NW currently is no way possible, The Army must need to consolidate its gain, however one day we would have to get in there so i guess the planning phase of a possible military ops must have been undergoing as i right this post.

The best option could be to make alliance with the Haqqani Network and then convince them to play there roll in finishing off TTP, though its difficult to achieve but not impossible. An almost similar kind of thing happened in Afghanistan where Hizb-e-Islami Leader Gulbadin Hikmatyar made some sort of understanding with the Afghan Gov.

 

[H2O3C4Nitrogen]

U.S. military tries to reassure Pakistan amid Times Square probe
By Barbara Starr, CNN Pentagon Correspondent
May 10, 2010 3:05 p.m. EDT

Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff,
spoke with the chief of the Pakistani army Sunday.
​

Washington (CNN) -- The top U.S. military officer is reassuring his Pakistani counterpart that the U.S. military is not pressuring the Pakistani army to increase its operations against the Taliban there, a senior U.S. military official said.

The message comes as the United States has turned up independent evidence that ties the suspect in the attempted bombing in New York's Times Square to the insurgent group. It stands in sharp contrast to tough talk from U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who warned of "consequences" if the Times Square plot is linked to elements in Pakistan.

Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, called Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, chief of the Pakistani army, to discuss the matter Sunday.

Mullen called to "reassure Kayani we are not trying to pressure him as a result of this case," a senior U.S. military official said. "Mullen didn't call to say, 'You gotta do more because this Pakistani-American was trained on your territory.' "

Gen. Stanley McChrystal, commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, met with Kayani as well, and his spokesman denied McChrystal made any effort to pressure the Pakistani official.
Clinton publicly took a tougher line, saying on the CBS program "60 Minutes": "We've made it very clear that if -- heaven forbid -- an attack like this that we can trace back to Pakistan were to have been successful, there would be very severe consequences."

The senior U.S. military official was adamant in saying the U.S. military is not trying to make the Pakistanis accelerate their timetable to move against Taliban strongholds in North Waziristan, a border region long believed to be sheltering al Qaeda and Taliban militants.

Kayani has repeatedly said his troops would not expand their operations into North Waziristan until they have finished operations in other areas.

"We are very comfortable with the work they have been doing and where they are at the moment," the senior official said.

Other senior military officials offer the same assessment.

The military official said the current view has been reached even as intelligence increasingly indicates the Times Square bombing plot suspect, Faisal Shahzad, had "strong links" to the Pakistani Taliban.

"We believe right now the Pakistanis are doing everything they can," the U.S. military official said. He declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the situation.

The United States now has independent intelligence to indicate Shahzad had ties to the Pakistani Taliban, according to a U.S. official. The official could not be identified because he is not authorized to speak publicly. The independent confirmation is important because it gives the U.S. law enforcement and intelligence community a better understanding of Shahzad's activities without just following leads based on his interrogation.

The official said the United States is still trying to figure out "how deep" Shahzad's links are to the Pakistani Taliban and "how high up" his connections go into the organization. But he emphasized that public statements by top U.S. officials about Shahzad and the Pakistani Taliban are "not just based on what Shahzad is saying."

He would not discuss additional details about the other intelligence streams of information.

"People are looking into other streams of intelligence that point in a serious way to links to the [Pakistani Taliban]," the official said.

President Obama's top counterterrorism adviser, John Brennan, said Sunday, "It looks like he was working on behalf of the Tariki Taliban Pakistan, the TTP, that's the Pakistan Taliban. This is a group that is closely allied with al Qaeda."

U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder, speaking on NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday, went further, saying that the plot was directed by the Pakistani Taliban.

"We know that they helped facilitate it; we know that they helped direct it," Holder said. "And I suspect that we are going to come up with evidence which shows that they helped to finance it. They were intimately involved in this plot."

The U.S. official also said the United States is trying to get a better understanding of the TTP's own source of financing. While acknowledging the risk posed by a single Taliban operative, he also said there are indications the TTP lacks extensive financial resources and it's not clear it could set up an extensive operation in the United States.

If U.S. intelligence can determine and isolate a target precisely tied to Shahzad, such as the training areas where he might have been sheltered, the most likely scenario is that the U.S. government would call in drone strikes to ensure any lethal action is as precise as possible and potential civilian casualties are minimized, several officials have told CNN.

In other news from the region, the U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan says the relationship between the United States and Afghanistan is as strong as it's ever been.

At a White House news conference Monday, Karl Eikenberry acknowledged that there have been "ups and downs" in the relationship with Afghan President Hamid Karzai.

But Eikenberry said he expected the two countries "to be able to work our way through difficulties and come back together and still find ourselves well-aligned" as a result of Karzai's visit to Washington this week to meet with Obama.

Also at the news conference, McChrystal said there will be increased violence in Afghanistan "as our combined security forces expand into Taliban-controlled areas" in the south.

U.S. military tries to reassure Pakistan amid Times Square probe - CNN.com

 

[H2O3C4Nitrogen]

Pak says won't give in to pressure on action against militants
15 May 2010

LAHORE: Amid increased US pressure on Pakistan to take more steps to tackle terrorism, Pakistan has said it will not give in to any foreign dictation while deciding on a military operation against militants in its North Waziristan tribal region.

Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi made these remarks while talking to reporters at the airport in Lahore on Friday.

His remarks came a day after Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said that Pakistan needed to do more against militants and warned it of "consequences" if any successful terror attack against America is traced back here.

Reports suggest that the US pressure on Pakistan has increased, especially in the wake of a botched car bomb attack in New York on May 1.

Faisal Shahzad, the Pakistani-American arrested for the attempted attack in New York's Times Square, was trained in bomb-making in Waziristan, according to a complaint filed by the FBI in a US court.

Qureshi also said Pakistan is engaged in dialogue with India to sort out the outstanding issues. "We did not indulge in any back-door diplomacy with India," he said.

Replying to a question about differences with India on sharing river waters, Qureshi said Pakistan raised the issue of decrease in water flows from India and the construction of dams over western rivers in Jammu and Kashmir at international fora.

The Indus Waters Treaty is the best forum to address bilateral water issues, he said.

In response to another question, Qureshi said the US had not accused Pakistan of providing support to militants.

He also said Pakistan is facing a severe energy crisis and wanted to get the matter resolved and was seeking assistance from the US and other developed countries.

Pak says won't give in to pressure on action against militants-Politics/Nation-News-The Economic Times

 

[Javed3]

Bill Longley

"" This means so far out of 19 divisions 7 to 8 divisions are participating in Counter terrorism operations.""

35% of our Army is busy fighting the US war on its own soil against its own people.

It is in the best national interest of Pakistan to retire 35% of the army and save money and invest in our tattered economy.

 

[EjazR]

Asia Times Online :: Pakistan torn over North Waziristan

By Syed Saleem Shahzad

ISLAMABAD - After a meeting in Islamabad on Wednesday in which two of United States President Barack Obama's senior intelligence aides briefed Pakistani officials on last month's failed car bombing in New York City's Times Square, a joint statement praised Pakistan's "excellent" cooperation in fighting terrorism.

A White House spokesman later said the Obama administration believed it was time to redouble efforts with Pakistan to close what he called "this safe haven", without being more specific.

He did not need to be. It is an open secret that the US wants Pakistan to launch a full-scale operation in the North Waziristan tribal area on the border with Afghanistan - something Islamabad is reluctant to do immediately - and is applying as much pressure as it possibly can.

United States National Security Adviser General James Jones and Central Intelligence Agency chief Leon Panetta met with, among others, President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi and chief of army staff General Parvez Kiani on Wednesday.

Jones and Panetta provided the Pakistani officials with an update on the investigation into the failed bombing on May 1 for which a Pakistani-American, Faisal Shahzad, has been charged. Shahzad, 30, has told investigators that he trained in North Waziristan.

Other than North Waziristan, Pakistan has mounted large-scale operations in the six remaining districts of the Federally Administrated Tribal Areas since 2008 - a 500-kilometer stretch of territory along Pakistan's western border with Afghanistan.

North Waziristan is the citadel of the Afghan resistance as well as home to al-Qaeda and linked militant groups. Washington is convinced that a successful operation in the area would have a decisive impact on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO's) operations in Afghanistan.

Two attacks in the Afghan capital Kabul this week will make the US even more impatient.

Early on Wednesday morning, militants carrying rocket-propelled grenades and wearing suicide vests attacked the major US base at Bagram, north of Kabul. In the ensuing battle, 10 Taliban fighters were said to have been killed and at least five US soldiers wounded. The attack came a day after a suicide bomber targeted a NATO-led military convoy in Kabul, killing 12 civilians and six foreign troops. The Taliban claimed responsibility for both incidents.

In the hot seat
Kiani, as chief of army staff and with a close relationship with the US military, is feeling the heat. Before his meeting with the US officials he would have pored over the reports piled in the right upper draw of his desk in the garrison city of Rawalpindi, stubbing out half-smoked cigarettes, as is habit.

He will be aware that if Pakistan enters North Waziristan it would be a double-edged sword. It would scatter the militants and they would lose their vital bases, which would affect their capacity to plan and execute attacks in Afghanistan. However, the militants, numbering at least 50,000 from various groups, would spread across Pakistan and with their nexus of cells in southern Punjab and in the southern port city of Karachi they could cause havoc of a scale never before seen in the country.

Kiani has expressed his reservations over an attack in North Waziristan to visiting General Stanley McChrystal, the American commander in Afghanistan, and General David Petraeus, head of US Central Command.

Kiani is due to retire on November 27 this year, and Minister of Defense Chaudhary Ahmad Mukhtar has said that his term would not be extended (and that he did not desire one). In the meantime, a weakened Zardari administration is not in a position to act as a countervailing force against the Pakistan army. So Kiani's decision is crucial.

Before the arrival of the American officials this week, Kiani spoke to a gathering in Rawalpindi of corps commanders. He outlined some of the issues related to an operation in North Waziristan. Pakistan's economy is in a poor state and much-needed aid that the US has pledged is conditional on Islamabad's support to the American war efforts.

All the same, graphs presented showed that Pakistan's average annual gross domestic product growth in the past 60 years has been about 5%, except for 2006 and 2007 when it performed exceptionally well due to US aid packages. However, growth declined to 3.7% in 2008 and 2.7% in 2009, due in part to a higher number of militant attacks and despite aid packages.

A decision on North Waziristan could have been made easier if the militants had shown willingness for a ceasefire.

Therefore, in coordination with the Saudi Arabian government, early this year a delegation that included retired squadron leader Khalid Khawaja, a former Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) official, and Mahmood al-Samarai, was sent to North Waziristan to explore the opportunities of long-term peace with the militants.

Samarai, an Iraqi and a former Muslim Brotherhood member, was the senior-most person after Osama bin Laden who went to Afghanistan in the 1980s to fight against the Soviets and he still lives in the region. Samarai is also known to have contacts in the Saudi Embassy in Pakistan for making contact with al-Qaeda.

Khawaja and Samarai tested the waters in North Waziristan and after believing they had achieved satisfactory results they made another trip in March, taking with them Colonel Ameer Sultan Tarrar, another former ISI official who is known as Colonel Imam. He is also called the father of the Taliban. However, a little-known group calling itself the Asian Tigers abducted them. Khalid was killed this month on suspicion of being a spy while Colonel Imam is still being held by the group.

A member of an al-Qaeda-linked Pakistani group told Asia Times Online, "We appreciated that backchannel move [by Khawaja and Samarai]. All mujahideen groups were happy at the prospect of reconciliation. Nobody would have been happy fighting a war inside Pakistan, but the process was sabotaged by the Asian Tigers. Everybody here is convinced that they were used, either willingly or unknowingly, by foreign powers that want an operation in North Waziristan at all costs."

He added that a gesture to this effect had been conveyed to Islamabad, that is, nobody wants a war with Pakistan, and if it was forced on the militants in North Waziristan it "would be an unfortunate event and it would be fought unwillingly".

With the killing of two Italian soldiers in Herat in western Afghanistan on Monday, the death of NATO troops in Kabul on Tuesday and the attack on Bagram on Wednesday, the Taliban's spring offensive is well underway. This comes just 10 days before a peace jirga (council) in Kabul, sending a strong signal that there is little prospect of any political process emerging that could tame the Taliban-led insurgency.

The race of vital strategic interests from Kabul to Islamabad is entering its final phase, and nobody aims to lose. Kiani and his commanders want to buy time over North Waziristan, as do the militants, while the Americans want action - now. Something will have to give.

 

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Pakistan to launch operation in Taliban stronghold

Pakistan is ready to launch an operation against Taliban safe havens in the mountains of North Waziristan to coincide with a Nato offensive in Kandahar, following a meeting with senior American officials.

A Pakistani Army soldier points his machine gun towards the Afghan border from Pakistan's North Waziristan tribal area Photo: GETTY


The US has made no secret of its frustration that a key ally in the war on terror has not moved against militant hideouts in the lawless tribal region.

Nato is building its forces in Afghanistan ahead of an anticipated strike against insurgents in Kandahar. The southern city is a Taliban stronghold and strategists believe a successful operation could turn the tide of war.

However, Pakistan's rugged, porous border poses a major challenge.

Islamabad is under pressure to root militants from their bases in North Waziristan in order to destroy potential hiding places for Afghan fighters fleeing Kandahar.

General James Jones, Barack Obama's National Security Adviser, and Leon Panetta, CIA director, met Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari and General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, Chief of the Army Staff, in Islamabad to discuss a common approach to tackling terrorism.

Following the meeting, a senior Pakistani security official told The Daily Telegraph: "Our position is that we are committed to an operation in the north at a time of our choosing.

"That's what was agreed on Wednesday.

"But we cannot provoke unrest in that region until we have pacified South Waziristan."

The region is part of the lawless tribal belt. Its inhospitable terrain, deep gorges and caves are thought to have hosted Osama bin Laden in the past.

Robert Simmons, a Nato deputy assistant secretary general, said that North Waziristan remained "the biggest concern" but added: "It is for Pakistan to set its strategy and the timings."

The issue assumed fresh urgency after Faisal Shahzad, the Times Square bomber, told interrogators he had visited a training camp in North Waziristan.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/pakistan/7745694/Pakistan-to-launch-operation-in-Taliban-stronghold.html

 

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Pakistan To Decide Operation Timing In NWA Pentagon

US Department of Defense expressed anticipation that Pakistan would launch an offensive against militants in North Waziristan. The US however wants Pakistan to decide the time for the operation reported by A Pakistan News.
US President Barrack Obama dispatched White House National Security Adviser Jim Jones and CIA Director Leon Panetta to Pakistan earlier this week in an attempt to pursue the Pakistani authorities to launch an offensive against Islamist militants hiding in North Waziristan.

US Defense Secretary Robert Gates hinted during a press conference in Washington that the American authorities are considering options to enhance cooperation between the two countries to tackle the threat of terrorism faced by both the countries. Gates said that we would not pressurize Pakistan to take any harsh steps immediately.

Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the US military’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Gen Ashfaq Kayani had “indicated” to him more than a year ago that he had “plans to execute that mission” in North Waziristan.

But Mullen said the timing was “really up to him (Kiyani)” and the US understood that the Pakistani military was already “stretched” by
operations in other tribal areas.

Pakistan To Decide Operation Timing In NWA Pentagon

 

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Strategy and timing of North Waziristan offensive Pak's discretion: NATO
Friday, May 21

Islamabad, May 21 (ANI): A top North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) official has said that it is for Pakistan to decide as to when it wants to launch an offensive against the Taliban and other extremists in North Waziristan.

Buzz up!
"It is for Pakistan to set its strategy and the timings," The Daily Times quoted NATO's deputy assistant secretary general Robert Simmons, as saying.


Pakistan has already made it clear that it would not succumb to any pressure from the United States as regards the timing of the offensive in the Taliban's stronghold, and that any decision in this regard would be 'sovereign'.

"Be it the Tribal Areas or any other part, Pakistan will proceed in accordance with its own priorities and plans." Foreign Office (FO) spokesperson Abdul Basit said while responding to a question whether Islamabad would launch a full-fledged military offensive in North Waziristan, the Taliban stronghold, for which the Obama administration has been piling pressure on it.

"Be it the Tribal Areas or any other part, Pakistan will proceed in accordance with its own priorities and plans," Basit said during a regular press briefing here.

It may be noted that President Obama's top two security advisors National Security Adviser General James Jones and Central Investigation Agency (CIA) chief Leon Panetta were recently in Islamabad with a White House' message that Pakistan, without wasting any more time, should initiate an operation against the extremists flourishing in the tribal regions along the Afghanistan border. (ANI)

Strategy and timing of North Waziristan offensive Pak's discretion: NATO - Oneindia News

 

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N. Waziristan operation not at US behest: FO
By Our Staff Reporter
Friday, 21 May, 2010

FO spokesman Mr Abdul Basit also said Pakistan condemned the publication of blasphemous caricatures of the Holy Prophet (PBUH) on Facebook, a social network website. - File Photo.
​

ISLAMABAD: The Foreign Office said on Thursday the armed forces would launch an operation in North Waziristan in keeping with the country’s plans and priorities, and not at the behest of Washington.

“As far as North Waziristan is concerned, that will be our sovereign decision as to when and how to proceed,” FO spokesman Mr Abdul Basit said at his weekly briefing.

He was commenting on media reports that Pakistan had agreed, in principle, to launch a fully-fledged military operation against the Taliban in North Waziristan at a time of its choosing during a meeting on Wednesday of the country’s political and military leadership with US National Security Adviser Gen James Jones and CIA chief Leon Panetta.

The US is reported to have ratcheted up pressure on Pakistan to act decisively against militant sanctuaries in North Waziristan after confronting the country’s leadership with incontrovertible evidence that Faisal Shahzad, the accused in the botched Times Square bombing, had received training there.

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Mr Basit said Pakistan condemned the publication of blasphemous caricatures of the Holy Prophet (PBUH) on Facebook, a social network website.

“Such malicious and insulting attacks hurt the sentiments of Muslims across the world and cannot be accepted under the garb of freedom of expression. Attacks on religious beliefs, symbols and personalities are a violation of the fundamental rights to freely profess and manifest ones religion.”

Such acts, the spokesman said, undermined efforts to promote inter-faith harmony and cooperation.

Pakistan had urged the international community to address the issue, he added.

The spokesman said India had been intimated about Pakistan’s desire to invoke arbitration on the construction of Kishanganga hydropower project in violation of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty.

“We … intend to set up a court of arbitration as provided for in the dispute settlement mechanism under Article-IX of the Indus Waters Treaty. We have invoked the mechanism and we hope that India would respond positively so we can proceed ahead and have our differences and disputes over the Kishanganga project resolved amicably.”

Mr Basit urged India to engage Pakistan with sincerity for resolving all outstanding issues.

The interior ministers and foreign secretaries of the two countries will meet on June 26 under a phased process for building trust before revival of peace talks.

DAWN.COM | Front Page | N. Waziristan operation not at US behest: FO

 

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North Waziristan offensive decision up to Pakistan: NATO

* Official says NATO satisfied, welcomes steps taken against terrorist networks
* Simmons says NATO mulling agreement with Pakistan on sharing secret information

By Saeed Minhas

ISLAMABAD: It is up to Pakistan to decide when to move against the Taliban in North Waziristan, a key NATO official said on Thursday.

“It is for Pakistan to set its strategy and the timings,” Robert Simmons, the NATO deputy assistant secretary general, told reporters in Islamabad.

He said North Waziristan is the biggest area of concern for NATO, especially at a time when coalition forces are engaged in a fresh offensive against the Taliban in Afghanistan, but NATO appreciates and is satisfied with the “relatively good cooperation” by Pakistan in the war on terrorism. “Overall we are satisfied and welcome the steps that Pakistan has taken against terrorist networks,” Simmons said.

North Waziristan is proving out to be one of the latest in the “do-more list” of the US administration these days. A Pakistan Army official, while referring to over-stretching and exhaustion of its troops, had made it clear to the demanding US visitors that a hasty push into the agency would prove counter-productive.

Pakistan and the US vowed on Wednesday to step up efforts to prevent terror plots, as US officials briefed Islamabad on inquiries into the failed New York bomb plot blamed on the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. “We very much supported and praised the effort of Pakistan in dealing with terrorists in its own country. I welcome the steps which have been taken to deal it with in Swat and South Waziristan,” he added. He said NATO is looking to broaden its ties with Pakistan at the highest political level as well as expanding a training programme for Pakistani officers, civilians, police and counterterrorism officials, besides entering into bilateral agreements in copyright protection, arms control and proliferation.

Sharing information: NATO was mulling an agreement with Pakistan on sharing secret information, the official said.

“We also discussed the possibility of an agreement on the protection of classified information. It permits us to exchange classified information with the Pakistanis,” he said. Briefing reporters, Simmons praised both the civil government and military leadership for not only re-entering into dialogue with its archrival India, but also showed the ability to diversify its force deployment as per its national and regional requirements.

Relationship: Informing about his meetings with the top civil and military bureaucracy and a visit to counterterrorism centres, the official said NATO is very optimistic about “evolving relationship with Pakistan” and is awaiting the nomination of a military attaché in its headquarters in Brussels. Simmons said NATO does not want to be a global alliance but the challenges that have been mentioned before can arise anywhere in the world so it (NATO) must now respond to threats that are global in nature.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010%5C05%5C21%5Cstory_21-5-2010_pg7_23

 

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Pentagon says it makes sense Pakistan should decide timeline of North Waziristan operation

WASHINGTON, May 21 (APP): The United States on Thursday praised Pakistan’s “huge” effort against militancy, with a top Pentagon leader saying that it is up to the South Asian country’s to decide the timing for military offensive against militant hideouts in North Waziristan. The Pentagon chiefs - Defense Secretary Robert Gates and chairman Joint Chiefs Staff Admiral Mullen - acknowledged Pakistan’s massive actions to root out militants from its tribal regions bordering Afghanistan.
“I think, seven divisions and 140,000 troops in that area. So it is huge effort that Pakistan is making,” Gates told a press briefing. His comments follow visit by US National Security Advisor James Jones and CIA Director Leon Paenotta to Islamabad this week.

Mullen, appearing jointly with the Secretary, said Pakistani army indicated a year ago that there are plans to execute that mission in North Waziristan as part of the overall anti-militancy effort. In view of the already underway efforts, he noted, it makes sense that Pakistan army decides the schedule of the action in North Waziristan.

“But very specifically, you know, the timelines are really up to him (Pakistan army chief Gen Kayani),” he said in response to a question.

Asked to comment as to what Washington expects from Pakistan in the light of US National Security Advisor and CIA Chief’s joint visit to the country this week, Gates noted close US-Pakistani cooperation in the wake of Times Square failed bombing attempt and felt the talks focused on intensifying the existing cooperation.

“What we have seen here is yet another new phenomenon, and that is the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan not only trying to overthrow the government in Islamabad, but also launch attacks against outside of Pakistan and, in this case, against us, “ the Secretary of Defense replied.

“We now have a mutual interest in trying to stop this group, stop it from carrying out attacks inside Pakistan, stop it from carrying out attacks outside of Pakistan, and especially in the United States,” he remarked.

“And so I suspect that the main theme of these talks was that were held was, how can we intensify our cooperation in dealing with this mutual threat that we face? My impression has been that there has been close cooperation since the (Times Square) bomber (a Pakistani-American) was arrested. So I think it’s more about that than any qualitative change,” Gates added.

In his remarks, Mullen expressed understanding of Pakistani point of view that its military is currently stretched.

“Well, as far as this visit that General Jones and Director Panetta took, I think , I really need to refer you to them. And the fact is, I haven’t spoken with either of them since they returned,” he responded to a question.

“I understand and believe, that, you know, he’s stretched.

He (Gen Kayani)’s got two fronts. He’s got a military that’s lost a lot of soldiers, sacrificed a great deal. And so that it makes a lot of sense to me, you know, that he does get to pick this timeline,” Mullen stated.

“They’re struggling in the build phase in Swat, behind the security that he’s established there. So this is not a one-of kind of thing.

It’s really part of an overall campaign plan.” the admiral added Mullen said the Pakistani army chief has always lived up to his word.

Associated Press Of Pakistan ( Pakistan's Premier NEWS Agency ) - Pentagon says it makes sense Pakistan should decide timeline of North Waziristan operation

 

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US not pushing Pakistan to launch offensive
By Anwar Iqbal
Friday, 21 May, 2010

US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates (L) and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen (R) brief reporters at the Pentagon May 20, 2010 in Arlington, Virginia. - Photo by AFP.
​

WASHINGTON: Two senior US officials – Defence Secretary Robert Gates and Admiral Mike Mullen – said on Thursday that the United States was not pushing Pakistan to launch a military offensive in North Waziristan.

At a briefing at the Pentagon, both Mr Gates and Mr Mullen indicated that this week’s talks between President Asif Ali Zardari and visiting US National Security Advisor James Jones and CIA chief Leon Panetta in Islamabad focussed on the overall strategy for combating terrorism and not any particular operation.

Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi and Army Chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani also attended that meeting.

“The main theme of these talks was … how we can intensify our cooperation in dealing with this mutual threat that we face,” said Mr Gates.

“My impression has been that there has been close cooperation since the (Times Square) bomber was arrested. So I think it’s more about that than any qualitative change.”

Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mullen said he had discussed the North Waziristan operation with Gen Kayani “well over a year ago” who had indicated that he planned to execute the mission.

“But very specifically, the timeline’s really up to him. And it goes back to what I understand and believe, that he’s stretched,” the admiral said.

“He’s got two fronts. He’s got a military that’s lost a lot of soldiers, sacrificed a great deal, and so that it makes a lot of sense to me that he does get to pick this timeline.”

The US military chief explained that the North Waziristan operation was “not a one-of kind of thing, it’s really part of an overall campaign plan”.

Admiral Mullen said he trusted the Pakistani army chief because “when I have dealt with him in the past, what he has said he would do in the future, he’s always done”.

Secretary Gates noted that Pakistan already had seven divisions – about 140,000 troops – in that area, and “it’s a huge effort that Pakistan is making”.

The US defence chief said the unravelling of the links between Faisal Shahzad and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan indicated that they were not only trying to overthrow the government in Islamabad, but were also launching attacks on the US.

Secretary Gates noted that when the Pakistani Taliban approached Islamabad a year-and-a-half ago the Pakistanis realised that this group was an existential danger for the government of Pakistan itself.

“We now have a mutual interest in trying to stop this group, stop it from carrying out attacks inside Pakistan, stop it from carrying out
attacks outside of Pakistan, and especially in the United States,” he concluded.

DAWN.COM | Front Page | US not pushing Pakistan to launch offensive