Analyzing North Waziristan

[TechLahore]

"Pakistan would like to keep its options open and watch closely how U.S. policy and the military situation evolve."

So if we stayed forever, would you watch forever?

The US did stay engaged with Afghanistan for about a decade last time abandonment occurred. An alternate point of view on the above is that the story has progressed to the chapter in which the patience of the American people with Afghanistan begins to wear thin. And by the way, if this is so, I don't begrudge the American people their alternate set of priorities because I do believe that they are faced with legitimate issues far more serious and relevant to their daily lives than Afghanistan.

Secondly, the author should have done a better job in making the point that this withdrawal we are wary of is not a theoretical possibility at some far away point in time, but it is part of publicly declared US plans... if one trusts President Obama's word, that is.

Lawmakers question 2011 Afghan exit plan - CNN.com

So if the Americans have a) disengaged once before, after about a decade of involvement and b) have now already announced that they will begin draw-down in 14 months, the "what if we stay there forever?" question doesn't really arise.

Everyone in the region - and many in the US establishment - knew that presence in Afghanistan was not a perpetual condition. Some also knew that US involvement in Afghanistan would not alter the character of the Afghan people, nor change the fundamental dynamics that have defined Afghan history since before 300BC. Now we are 2-3 years away from a US exit. Let us see what the future holds.

 

[Slides]

K,

"Pakistan’s participation in the Afghan anti-communist jihad, the subsequent abandonment of the region by the United States and the international community and finally the impact of the events of 9/11 have totally destroyed the social, tribal and administrative structure of the area, encouraging the Taliban to fill the vacuum."

It reads real nice but don't you think that the wholesale slaughter of the tribal maliks by the taliban and A.Q. in a sheerly brutal local power struggle did more by itself to destroy "...the social, tribal, and administrative structure..." than all the rest combined?

The power struggle in FATA happened because of events across the border.

 

[Musafar]

It reads real nice but don't you think that the wholesale slaughter of the tribal maliks by the taliban and A.Q. in a sheerly brutal local power struggle did more by itself to destroy "...the social, tribal, and administrative structure..." than all the rest combined?

The region survived nicely until post-9/11 when these boys strolled in from Afghanistan. They came. They saw. They conquered.

Nice little slant you put on that - the killing of the tribal elders was done by *EVERY FACTION* not your blanketed "taliban". Had the US stayed on for reconstruction and development and not just used the muj as pawns in their chess-game against the soviets - the carnage and continued tribal infighting would not have ensued. The US packed its travelling circus, put a notch on its scoresheet, patted itself on the back whilst the ordinary afghan was sitting on a pile of grey rubble wondering when the next meal was coming.

Last point - The Taliban restored the one thing the Yanks have been trying for the last nine years - Security. Watch and find out how:

 

[SparklingCrescent]

PESHAWAR: Amid rumours of an impending military operation in the volatile North Waziristan region, the military and Taliban militants for the first time released strong-worded Urdu language leaflets, accusing each other of following the foreign agenda.

Tribal sources in Miramshah said the situation remained tense in the militancy-hit tribal region after the killing of two paramilitary Frontier Corps (FC) men by unknown assailants and later firing by security forces, which led to the death of two tribesmen on main road in Miramshah.

The authorities had clamped curfew in the entire tribal region on Tuesday that restricted the tribesmen to their homes.Security officials said curfew in the area was imposed due to movement of the security forces.

Tribesmen saw a huge number of troops armed with heavy weapons arriving in Miramshah. Later, when the troops arrived safely, the security forces dropped leaflets from the air in which the Taliban militants were held responsible for the destruction and backwardness of South and North Waziristan tribal regions.

The tribesmen feared the government might start military action in the region as they said they had never observed the two sides using such harsh language against each other.

They said a leaflet by the military titled “Correct decision and first step towards right direction” was a clear indication of parting ways with the militants. In the same pamphlet, the Taliban militants were accused of getting funds from India, Israel and al-Qaeda to buy heavy weapons and brainwash innocent youth.

The leaflet accused the Afghanistan-based Indian consulates and the Indian RAW, Israeli Mossad and other anti-Islamic organizations of financing militants. The militants were also accused of accumulating resources from opium and hashish.

It said it was wrong to call a militant as Qari, who cannot even read the Holy Quran.

The militants also circulated leaflets in which they accused military authorities of selling innocent Pakistanis like Dr Aafia Siddiqui to the US for the sake of dollars. It alleged that Pakistani security agencies were involved in the killing of innocent Pakistanis for dollars and were creating hurdles in the way of implementing Islamic Sharia in the country.

 

[SparklingCrescent]

http://www.defence.pk/forums/pakistans-war/49048-likely-operation-nwa-army-drops-pamphlets.html plzz if someone can murge it with the above thread... thanks... or delete it...

 

[fawwaxs]

WASHINGTON: The United States understands why Pakistan does not want to launch a military operation in North Waziristan at this stage, says US special envoy Richard Holbrooke.

In an interview with CNN on Sunday, President Barack Obama special representative for Pakistan and Afghanistan also noted that Islamabad had already moved 100,000 troops from their eastern border against a giant neighbour to the western border. They also had two divisions in Swat while there were several other divisions in South Waziristan.

Of course, it will be extremely valuable for them to go in North Waziristan. Everyone understands that. But that is for the Pakistani army to decide based on their resources and their assessment of the situation, he added. We all know that if you spread yourself too thin, there can be a backlash. And I leave that to Gen Kayani.

Mr Holbrooke described a recent improvement in US-Pakistan relations as a very big step forward, noting that because of Islamabad’s efforts Al Qaeda now faced fantastic pressure along the Pak-Afghan border.

In the last 13 months, since this (Obama) administration took over, there has been a significant improvement across the board in the relationship between our government and the government of Pakistan, Mr Holbrooke told CNN’s GPS programme.

Responding to a question about Pakistan’s political stability, Mr Holbrooke noted a constructive improvement in the situation.

Pakistan now had an opposition party, led by Nawaz Sharif, the government of President Zardari and the military has said very clearly that they don’t want to get involved, the US envoy observed.

 

[ajpirzada]

WASHINGTON: The Pakistani army chief has informed the Obama administration that Pakistan will not launch a ‘steamroller’ operation in North Waziristan, although it already has 40,000 troops in the area combating militants, the Pentagon said.

Briefing journalists on meetings between US and Pakistani military officials during last week’s strategic dialogue, a senior Pentagon official said US officials also had seen evidence that supported what they learned from Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kayani.

“We are seeing quite a bit of activity that’s going on. In a lot of ways, it supports what Gen Kayani’s been telling us in some of the strategic dialogues and talks about his campaign plan,” the official told journalists.

The official, who under Pentagon briefing rules cannot be identified, said that the troops deployed in North Waziristan were in the process of doing small operations in different areas of the tribal region.

“My understanding is (that the Pakistani military strategy in North Waziristan) will not be similar to what they did down in the Mehsud area of South Waziristan, where they did kind of a steamroller operation,” said the official. “I don’t think we’re going to see that in North Waziristan.”

The official also detailed how the United States was helping Pakistan in this fighting.

According to him, since 2008 the United States has doubled its security assistance to Pakistan. In fiscal year 2008, the US provided more than $1 billion to Pakistan in security assistance and training. This doubled in fiscal year 2009 to just over $2 billion, and as projected, the security assistance for 2010 surpassed the amount given in 2009.

“This significant commitment highlights the importance we place on our strategic long-term relationship and support for Pakistan,” the official said.

The official also released details of US military assistance to Pakistan during this period. It includes 14 F-16 aircraft, five fast patrol boats, 115 self-propelled howitzer field artillery cannons, and more than 450 vehicles for the Frontier Corps, hundreds of night-vision goggles, day and night scopes, radios, and thousands of protective vests and first aid items for Pakistan’s security forces.

In addition, the US has provided funding and provided training for more than 370 Pakistan military officers in a wide range of leadership development programmes covering topics such as counter-terrorism, intelligence, logistics, flight safety, medical and military law.

The official noted that from 2001 to about 2006-07, the US had disbursed about $6.3 billion in reimbursement costs to Pakistan.

In 2008, the US implemented new auditing procedures on the instructions of Congress, which delayed the reimbursements.

The United States, he said, was now trying to expedite the reimbursement of about $1.5 billion it owes Pakistan since 2008.

DAWN.COM | Front Page | No operation in North Waziristan, US told

 

[Musafar]

Makes sense, why go out your way to make an EXTRA enemy for yourselves when there are enough already to last us another 10 years? Afterall it's not going to be American blood that's going to be spilt but instead it will be paid by a devalued US dollar that's going to be worth as much as toilet paper if / when China decides it wants to show its value on the global stage.

 

[Awesome]

Makes sense, why go out your way to make an EXTRA enemy for yourselves when there are enough already to last us another 10 years? Afterall it's not going to be American blood that's going to be spilt but instead it will be paid by a devalued US dollar that's going to be worth as much as toilet paper if / when China decides it wants to show its value on the global stage.

When the US leaves Afghanistan, we HAVE to reclaim North Waziristan as well. I understand the not create another enemy policy, but I would oppose if the mindset has reverted into thinking that there is any sort of ally in North Waziristan for us to bank upon.

We have to have that property vacated at some point in time, or are we not gifting away our territory?

 

[waraich66]

When the US leaves Afghanistan, we HAVE to reclaim North Waziristan as well. I understand the not create another enemy policy, but I would oppose if the mindset has reverted into thinking that there is any sort of ally in North Waziristan for us to bank upon.

We have to have that property vacated at some point in time, or are we not gifting away our territory?

Mullah Nazir and Haqqani in north waziristan are not attacking PA , why should PA start a war with them????

 

[Awesome]

Mullah Nazir and Haqqani in north waziristan are not attacking PA , why should PA start a war with them????

Because North Waziristan is ours, and not theirs?

 

[RameeX Xaved]

Because North Waziristan is ours, and not theirs?

and what do you specifically mean 'ours'? are the tribes living in waziristan not pakistanese? does pakistan belong to a single class based on racial discrimination that we should grab the land from the people ruling it peacefully for centuries just because they have got beards and hate any foreign occupation? General Kiyani is spot on.
if those suicide bombers are extremists then doesnt this barbaric attitude of bombing and killing everyone in waziristan depict a true picture of extremism, if not a religious one?

 

[Musafar]

When the US leaves Afghanistan, we HAVE to reclaim North Waziristan as well. I understand the not create another enemy policy, but I would oppose if the mindset has reverted into thinking that there is any sort of ally in North Waziristan for us to bank upon.

We have to have that property vacated at some point in time, or are we not gifting away our territory?

So you're ONLY happy if the Pakistani Pashtuns of North Waziristan are to be used as future assets to fill the impending vacuum otherwise we have to colonize them, right? How about leaving them alone to live peacefully as they already do. They have a hard enough life as it is with the lack of resources. The last thing they need is another war on their door step.

In addition, Pakistan has the biggest refugee camp in Asia, adding another million plus to that isn't going to help. It's shambolic to think that that this isn't being addressed as its going to be a driver for further radicalization and act as a recruiting seargent. Not to mention the leverage it will give to nationalistic pashtuns calling for a break off from Pakistan.

If we do attack them unjustly as is being hinted and decide to removed their codified traditions of rule and tribal hierachy which have worked for centuries, then if they retaliate I see no reason how it could be argued that they are in the wrong. We had a treaty, we've possibly already broken it with our connivance and duplicity in the drone attacks, but if anything it is the people in North Waziristan that have showed the patience. I've yet to see any of the leaders declare war on the state like the TTP have. So why do we need to go out our way for no particular reason other than the fact that the worlds biggest superpower is using these guys as scapegoats for not being able to defeat a rag-tag AK47-wielding ressistance movement?

Lastly, it was was Jinnah that gave them the autonomy by recognizing the collosal part their ancestors played in the creation of Pakistan. How about we adhere to that? Or is USA policy now above the forefather of our nation?

"An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last." - Winston Churchill.

 

[ajpirzada]

so according to you, even ppl in south waziristan and rest of FATA were living a happy life in presence of taliban? isnt it? if not then how can you say the same about Nort Waziristan? please enlighten us

 

[Musafar]

so according to you, even ppl in south waziristan and rest of FATA were living a happy life in presence of taliban? isnt it? if not then how can you say the same about Nort Waziristan? please enlighten us

I'm not going to take the bait on your loaded question, suffice to say that "Taliban" is a very vague term that has been used to encompass all and sundry in FATA and beyond who happen to display and sort of dissent to the statusquo. There's alot of peeved off people there, and let me tell you it's not cos they are "Taliban" or whatever you might wana label them, but it might have something to do with the fact their own government (which ironically is there to protect its citizens) is selling out its air-space so that drones can be humming over their villages day and night waiting to slam a hellfire missile into their residency. And if it is the case, who cares? It just goes down as another statistic and if they are lucky enough they might get a postage-stamp-sized mention in tommorows newspaper.