All Clear: India To Sign Deal For 36 Rafales This Month!!!!!!!!

[Indiran Chandiran]

With honesty if you look for a span of say next 25 years, most of our old fleet would have retired even after MLUs...
The MKI if you say has a life of max 40 years with MLU, it implies the initial inducted birds may see retirement too..
This leaves a very precarious position for us as other than the leftover MKI, FGFAs planned, LCA and Rafale may become the major strength of IAF. The only other addition could be AMCA discussed later.

Rafale may not be completely a legacy fighter with 5th gen birds all around or downgraded 5th gen birds.As the platform continues to upgrade to be relevant especially since France has not opted for any 5th Gen program implying they are sure to upgrade the capabilities of rafale to some what similar levels. So engaging say newer frontiers with other modern jets or downgraded from 5th Gen platform will not be too much of an issue for rafale.. It should IMHO fight in a equal footing if not without a advantage. The F3R2 program earlier called F4 in 2023-25 timeline is just the first of the steps.. Its continuous evolution program will definitely improve Rafale much higher than planned Su30 MKI super 30 standard program any day.

A VLO fighter in concept was only when the radar technology was not that advanced. In reality with the newer capable AESA radars in different bands, the VLO as a concept itself is being challenged. Especially since VLO birds essentially are spending much longer in hangar then in air and are costly to maintain (Eg RAM coating usage again and again)

As i had posted earlier, the VLO concept as per western ideology seems to be more of Director role where it uses information access from different platforms along with its own sensor to direct "actors" which are non VLO/LO/Normal jets to handle a battle . A director directing a move with other casts.

The Russian concept seems more to rely closer to LO and compromise a bit for actor role as frontline fighter and use quasi director role for some advantage. Its as if the director and lead actor of the movie being the same. So you can see the role, responsibility puts it in between position.

If i look from Indian program angle, India does have an ambition for a VLO director to augment LO actors like FGFA and Rafales for air superiority and DPSA missions. That program is the AMCA. IF you go by the brochure its almost like F35 characteristics and borrows heavily the best of every known 5th Gen bird information.

The threats in true sense is not the J Series rather the humongous numbers advantage of Chinese AF. If you see they have over 400 4th Gen fighters and in 25 years that can easily double that number. True a VLO Director very well use the JXXs 4th Gen as rookies/pawns in the game of chess as opening move and then cherry pick other higher end closer to 4.5+/5th Gen birds to further the annihilation of IAF fleet by war of attrition.

But the question to ask is will India and China really have a situation of conflict or continued hostility. I see economic competition but inter dependency. Perhaps thats why IAF may never have more than max 1000 jets or say 50 odd squadrons at any time of life.. The threat perception in the coming world may not be from the countries like China or Pakistan.. It will be more from Rogue regimes if any.. So fleet will be more for deterrence and posture rather than actual usage..thats my thots really.

Nice analysis.just one bit. as long as the disputes persist between Ind & Pak / China , nothing can be ruled out.The latter aren't status quo ist powers.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Nice analysis.just one bit. as long as the disputes persist between Ind & Pak / China , nothing can be ruled out.The latter aren't status quo ist powers.

Partially Correct but with one small flaw..
The USA market is capitalist and in true sense a Military Manufacturer and hi end technology driven economy.
The Chinese economy on the other hand is invested technology by western countries like USA along with in house developed technology for the largest consumer market which is again partially domestic and mostly exports owing to cost advantage.
India is similar to Chinese market as its almost following the same footsteps of yesteryear China.

Status Quo, hostilities, threat and fear helps US economy as its MIC sells and earns money for its economy.

India China being world largest 2 markets would eventually come to conclusion of interdependence with skills divided among the two biggest manufacturing hubs and target market being again within the consumer of both countries.

This may take time but eventually you will see that.. Thats what my long term report on India China relationship says as per my office research team who see a quantum leap in opportunities to selectively target and get good manufacturing companies across different sectors choose one of the two economy as per the advantages it offers and finally become inter dependent on each other for their own survival.

Mind you there will be countries who wont like that to happen anytime soon for their own advantage.

 

[Indiran Chandiran]

Partially Correct but with one small flaw..
The USA market is capitalist and in true sense a Military Manufacturer and hi end technology driven economy.
The Chinese economy on the other hand is invested technology by western countries like USA along with in house developed technology for the largest consumer market which is again partially domestic and mostly exports owing to cost advantage.
India is similar to Chinese market as its almost following the same footsteps of yesteryear China.

Status Quo, hostilities, threat and fear helps US economy as its MIC sells and earns money for its economy.

India China being world largest 2 markets would eventually come to conclusion of interdependence with skills divided among the two biggest manufacturing hubs and target market being again within the consumer of both countries.

This may take time but eventually you will see that.. Thats what my long term report on India China relationship says as per my office research team who see a quantum leap in opportunities to selectively target and get good manufacturing companies across different sectors choose one of the two economy as per the advantages it offers and finally become inter dependent on each other for their own survival.

Mind you there will be countries who wont like that to happen anytime soon for their own advantage.

I beg to disagree.This isn't how the Chinese mindset works.This is the kind of wishful thinking reminiscent of what Pt.Nehru wanted for Sino Ind relations .We know what it got him & us .

"Varchasva" - absolute power.power which can't be given or shared .only seized & exercised - solely , for one's own benefit . That's the Chinese motto.

While they may not mind , an inter dependence of economies & skill based labour being divided depending on the pre ponderance of skill sets in a particular region , it will have to be under Chinese overlordship .That's the tricky part.Why do you think Sino Japanese relations are rocky today nearly 7 decades after the end of WW 2.This animosity is a recent phenomena .Not more than 2 decades old.

Mao welcomed Japanese reparations for damages in WW 2 accepting Japenese apologies along with it for their depredations & held out the prospect of future re conciliation . Deng also welcomed Japanese investments & technology when the Chinese were inviting investments in the late 70's having liberalised their economy , stating that whatever the issues of WW 2 , they could be postponed for the next or even the generation after the next to re concile. These subtle graduations are the hallmark of the CCP leadership ( as an aside both the CCP & PA are remarkably consistent w.r.t their aims. I mean this w.r.t. Ind , esp in context to the PA.In case of the CCP they have only underlit & highlighted issues when it suited them.There has been nor will be no change in their core principles w.r.t their territorial claims & being the ultimate arbiter in Asia.make no mistake about it. )

The ordinary Chinese doesn't have any love lost for the Japanese .Yet as long as it suited the CCP they took with both arms what the Japanese had to give.From the 90's onwards , once they were sure they had their economy on a sound footing & suitably diversified to cater to the exports of other nations they gradually hardened their stand vis a vis the Japanese.

What you see today w.r.t the Sino Japanese relations are an outcome of the change in the CCP's position in the 90's.

 

[SUDIP]

Sorry guys I never believe these DDM( Desh Drohi Media) as they call them in BR but shiv always sounds logical while giving these kind of updates, and right now he is one of rare journalists along with sawant from HT to be in the good book of PMO. Most of his updates always bang o target. But still there always other side of a coin:

Rafale jet fighter final contract signing likely to be delayed further | Business Line

@PARIKRAMA @Abingdonboy now what's this new MOU vs Original Deal theory. Is IAF that cash crunched now?
Any french guy can tell why Dassault is so rigid abt there unit price. May be these guys @Vauban or @halloweene can help.

 

[Taygibay]

This actually is something that has gone unobserved by many defence experts.Not only are there no such platforms in the planning stage by France & the nations which make up the Eurofighter consortium , than the other prominent members of western Europe / NATO have plumbed for the F-35.

That's not correct! The FCAS is nothing else and it follows Taranis & nEUROn development programs.
Simply, as explained by Parikrama, the belief in full aspects all bands VLO is not a staple outside the US
and those that expect to face them by ricochet. In part, it follows electro-optical sensors' successes.
UCAVs of fighter size class would be capacity enhancement tools if inserted in a patrol for point duty.

By itself, it's a subject for its own thread, Tay.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Sorry guys I never believe these DDM( Desh Drohi Media) as they call them in BR but shiv always sounds logical while giving these kind of updates, and right now he is one of rare journalists along with sawant from HT to be in the good book of PMO. Most of his updates always bang o target. But still there always other side of a coin:

Rafale jet fighter final contract signing likely to be delayed further | Business Line

@PARIKRAMA @Abingdonboy now what's this new MOU vs Original Deal theory. Is IAF that cash crunched now?
Any french guy can tell why Dassault is so rigid abt there unit price. May be these guys @Vauban or @halloweene can help.

What i understand is 4 steps are needed for this deal full signature

Step 1 Finalization of an Inter Governmental Agreement (IGA)
Step 2: Release of DPP 2016
Step 3: Signing of Contract with clause of offset under DPP 2016
Step 4 : Release of Contract Signing Initial Amount before March 2016

For Step 1, French DM Jean-Yves Le Drian, Should arrive soon in New Delhi for finalization and perhaps signature too
For Step 2, DM MP has to release DPP 2016 which says offsets will include setting up manufacturing facilities and selected technology transfer as per the user in selected program of their choice.
Step 3, The contract signature formalizing the financial obligation of Dassault and all the parties concerned
Step 4: release of approximate 10% of contract signing amount to put into motion the contract execution

Now Step 2 and Step 3 can be interchanged.

Doubting Step 1 looks a bit difficult especially with BL report of delay. Effectively price negotiations i believe different media has reported to be over.
Now credibility wise India Today guys also should be good as they did say about FGFA issue as well as historically had disclosed many awesome articles including K Series. On 26th Dec 2015, India Today carried this
India's Rafael punch: Deal with France on January 25 : India, News - India Today

Excerpts
"The draft contract, which envisages supply of the first fighter within 36 months of signing the deal, has been finalised."

This indicates IGA draft is finalized. Now Businessline article mentions about cost, unavailability of funds due to OROP and offset issues. This is a bit harsh and i think overstretched.
One particular line hits even more harder
I quote,
"The French, it is learnt, have already secured billion-dollar contracts to sell Rafale jets to other countries such as Qatar and Malaysia, giving it an upper-hand in the ongoing negotiations with India."

and

"Although the French President is making his second visit to India, this will be his first as Republic Day chief guest. Hence, as “symbolic gesture” it has been decided that the agreement will be signed in the presence of both leaders."

The Malaysia is again exaggerated..

I think reporter is confused between Step 1 and Step 3. What will happen is most probably Step 1 as French Prez can sign for IGA or DM can but i dont think Prez Hollande can sign contract for Dassault as in Step 3

 

[SUDIP]

What i understand is 4 steps are needed for this deal full signature

Step 1 Finalization of an Inter Governmental Agreement (IGA)
Step 2: Release of DPP 2016
Step 3: Signing of Contract with clause of offset under DPP 2016
Step 4 : Release of Contract Signing Initial Amount before March 2016

For Step 1, French DM Jean-Yves Le Drian, Should arrive soon in New Delhi for finalization and perhaps signature too
For Step 2, DM MP has to release DPP 2016 which says offsets will include setting up manufacturing facilities and selected technology transfer as per the user in selected program of their choice.
Step 3, The contract signature formalizing the financial obligation of Dassault and all the parties concerned
Step 4: release of approximate 10% of contract signing amount to put into motion the contract execution

Now Step 2 and Step 3 can be interchanged.

Doubting Step 1 looks a bit difficult especially with BL report of delay. Effectively price negotiations i believe different media has reported to be over.
Now credibility wise India Today guys also should be good as they did say about FGFA issue as well as historically had disclosed many awesome articles including K Series. On 26th Dec 2015, India Today carried this
India's Rafael punch: Deal with France on January 25 : India, News - India Today

Excerpts
"The draft contract, which envisages supply of the first fighter within 36 months of signing the deal, has been finalised."

This indicates IGA draft is finalized. Now Businessline article mentions about cost, unavailability of funds due to OROP and offset issues. This is a bit harsh and i think overstretched.
One particular line hits even more harder
I quote,
"The French, it is learnt, have already secured billion-dollar contracts to sell Rafale jets to other countries such as Qatar and Malaysia, giving it an upper-hand in the ongoing negotiations with India."

and

"Although the French President is making his second visit to India, this will be his first as Republic Day chief guest. Hence, as “symbolic gesture” it has been decided that the agreement will be signed in the presence of both leaders."

The Malaysia is again exaggerated..

I think reporter is confused between Step 1 and Step 3. What will happen is most probably Step 1 as French Prez can sign for IGA or DM can but i dont think Prez Hollande can sign contract for Dassault as in Step 3

Thanks for the reply but what u think again 2016 will be wasted on this. Truly speaking none of the IAF fighter programme is going on smooth. FGFA a far future now, still vexed with rafale, LCA is our only hope to fill the gap, I would say Rafale is a gr8 fighter but bad choice by IAF. The IAF guys doesn't seems to be realistic strategic planner. What's ur take on it?

 

[Abingdonboy]

Sorry guys I never believe these DDM( Desh Drohi Media) as they call them in BR but shiv always sounds logical while giving these kind of updates, and right now he is one of rare journalists along with sawant from HT to be in the good book of PMO. Most of his updates always bang o target. But still there always other side of a coin:

Rafale jet fighter final contract signing likely to be delayed further | Business Line

@PARIKRAMA @Abingdonboy now what's this new MOU vs Original Deal theory. Is IAF that cash crunched now?
Any french guy can tell why Dassault is so rigid abt there unit price. May be these guys @Vauban or @halloweene can help.

Like I have said- I won't celebrate until the Rafales are actually in IAF service because there is just too many idiots in the Indian media with no clue what is going on and even worse paid by vested interests to report misinformation.

That said, 2016 is the year the IAF orders Rafales, 2018/19 is the year it receives its first units.

I would say Rafale is a gr8 fighter but bad choice by IAF. The IAF guys doesn't seems to be realistic strategic planner. What's ur take on it?

Bad choice, why? It was the winner of the meticulous MMRCA competition, that alone qualifies it to be the future of the IAF.

As you have noted, the IAF's future fighter stream is in a great deal of unease which makes the Rafale prchase (and in large numbers) more critical than ever before. This isn't the time to start revaluating the decsion because what alternatives are there? Re-tendering and waiting another 5 years for a decsion and another 8 years for deliveries? The IAF doesn't have that kind of time- MiG-21s/27s are ALREADY being phased out, if left unattested the SQN strength will be sub 22 by 2020 (or less than half of its sanctioned strength!).


What are the options for the IAF? Rafale, Rafale, Rafale.


Anyone who says differently is being disingenuous.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Thanks for the reply but what u think again 2016 will be wasted on this. Truly speaking none of the IAF fighter programme is going on smooth. FGFA a far future now, still vexed with rafale, LCA is our only hope to fill the gap, I would say Rafale is a gr8 fighter but bad choice by IAF. The IAF guys doesn't seems to be realistic strategic planner. What's ur take on it?

I doubt that 2016 will be wasted. You can be sure that under DPP2016 such offsets will also carry some TOT for LCA program. Now we are expecting LCA in good numbers and we also want success of Naval variant which can borrow a lot from RafaleM program.

IAF are more laid back and the GOI even more.. This has costed us a decade sureshot. Originally a Mirage line would have been nice but then again Rafale is superior. The issue seems to be perception about cost which is a instrinsic factor for any western fighter where the cost upfront is a bit higher but later cheaper over lifetime versus say a Russian fighter which is cheaper upfront but more constlier over lifetime.

Possibly this fact finding took way too long till we operated say 150 odd twin engined flankers to understand the cost aspect. Coupled with a need of a non Russian fighter made decision making very complex.. The resultant options were limited and Rafale ultimately is a right choice in that POV.

Now issue in hand is how good is future planning of IAF. Looking ahead for say next 20 25 years we know we will end up with LCA, MKI and rafales and perhaps FGFA and AMCA. The last 2 being 5th gen would be costly. The rafales and LCA will make up around 50%+ of squadron strength or rough estimate of 22-25 squadrons. LCA should be around 12squadron 200 jets and Rafale around 12-13 sqyadrons or 250 approx. The combination of these 2 virtually replaces all other platforms of present IAF. MKIs at 272 or less due to retirement leaves around 200-250 FGFA AMCA combination scope.

Sadly if IAF planners see this, then the choice of Rafale under MAke in India should be the top priority. But past policies, DPP and MMRCA with HAL created too many issues. This and lack of private sector expertise in aero MIC kind of dissuaded and slowed down the process.

But now we should catch some speed. Realistically we have around 12 years for full FGFA rollout and about 15-20 years for AMCA. Thus, Rafale MII should be finished in next 12-15 years with priority. If we goof it up, then we are only going to create more issues.

 

[SUDIP]

Like I have said- I won't celebrate until the Rafales are actually in IAF service because there is just too many idiots in the Indian media with no clue what is going on and even worse paid by vested interests to report misinformation.

That said, 2016 is the year the IAF orders Rafales, 2018/19 is the year it receives its first units.


Bad choice, why? It was the winner of the meticulous MMRCA competition, that alone qualifies it to be the future of the IAF.

As you have noted, the IAF's future fighter stream is in a great deal of unease which makes the Rafale prchase (and in large numbers) more critical than ever before. This isn't the time to start revaluating the decsion because what alternatives are there? Re-tendering and waiting another 5 years for a decsion and another 8 years for deliveries? The IAF doesn't have that kind of time- MiG-21s/27s are ALREADY being phased out, if left unattested the SQN strength will be sub 22 by 2020 (or less than half of its sanctioned strength!).


What are the options for the IAF? Rafale, Rafale, Rafale.


Anyone who says differently is being disingenuous.

I agree sir but all my apprehensions are due to cost only, we need numbers now rather than any ultra technology, i agree to the point there is no 4.5 gen fighter left across globe except raffy and EF, IAF doesn't want ruskis so what's the solution? Indigenous tejas but it comes under light class useful for point defense limited multirole capability.

 

[Abingdonboy]

I agree sir but all my apprehensions are due to cost only, we need numbers now rather than any ultra technology, i agree to the point there is no 4.5 gen fighter left across globe except raffy and EF, IAF doesn't want ruskis so what's the solution? Indigenous tejas but it comes under light class useful for point defense limited multirole capability.

You've made the points-

-IAF needs numbers NOW (not in the distant future)- Rafale is best placed for this as talks are already at the advanced stages, any other party entering now would face the same uphill struggle (kiss another 4-5 years goodbye in that case).
-LCA isn't a substitute in any form to the Rafale, the IAF would be tragically unbalanced with a pure LCA-MKI force (discounting the Jags/M2K/MiG-29UPGs in the long run). In that scenerio you have all your (offensive) eggs in one basket (the MKI) and they are too few in number (just 300) to deal with the combined threat of PAF and PLA(AF) not to mention the IAF would be left with ZERO deep penetration strike aircraft- neither the LCA nor MKI can do this role.


As I have said, anyone proposing a counter to inducting the Rafale (and a hell of a lot of them) is not working keeping the IAF's best interests in mind.


The situation is what it is, draw a line under it and move on, there is nothing to be gained crying over spilt milk or lamenting past decsions. All attention needs to be getting the Rafale into the IAF ASAP and in vast numbers, do you think the enemy is sat idle?

 

[PARIKRAMA]

The case becomes even more murkier if we consider say NLCA deployment in an ACC versus say a Rafale M deployment in our ACC.

The range, the operations, the load, the scope, the reach, etc etc kind of hampers it multifold. If NLCA was say synonymous to a F18 the issue won't have arisen. But LCA is a light category, implying a naval variant seriously limits the capability of the ACC.

So the cost verus benefit aspect for Rafale under MII can be made only via a substantial number and subsequent localisation.

The cost part over time would serve out to be far economical for raffy anyday.. Just wait for say 10 15 years.. The figures will speak

 

[Abingdonboy]

Sadly if IAF planners see this, then the choice of Rafale under MAke in India should be the top priority. But past policies, DPP and MMRCA with HAL created too many issues. This and lack of private sector expertise in aero MIC kind of dissuaded and slowed down the process.

But now we should catch some speed. Realistically we have around 12 years for full FGFA rollout and about 15-20 years for AMCA. Thus, Rafale MII should be finished in next 12-15 years with priority. If we goof it up, then we are only going to create more issues.

You've summed it up perfectly my friend. The time to act is NOW, failure to do so is only going to see disaster in the future. For as long as I can remember the media/GoI have cribbed about the low IAF force levels (it has never met its sanctioned strength) but the only way to change the picture is to tackle the issue head on, no more shirking of responsibility and hoping the situation addresses itself.

Take the Rafale out of the picture and what do you have to address the systamatic erosion of the IAF's force levels? The LCA and FGFA- BOTH facing difficulties, BOTH with extremely lexible timescales and BOTH inadequate to meet the medium class/DPSA requirements of the IAF.


Many are cribbing now about the Rafale's cost, well yes, it isn't a F-16 and it isn't a Cessna but if you want monkeys then pay peanuts. The Rafale is well worth its cost and features systems that will see the IAF unchallenged for a further 15 or so years in the region. And yes, the cost is high now because continuous delays in procurements have lead to this state, numerous avenues presented along the way (Mirage 2000s in the early 00s, early contract signture of the MMRCA 3-4 years ago etc) have been passed up and the costs have only increased. This is the cost of incompetance and failure of the GoI/MoD but at some point you have to BITE THE BULLET. There are no easy fixes hear, the problem is so large the solution is equally as gargantuan but this is the big boys' table, the stakes are enourmous and if one can't handle it then you have no right playing. By 2025 India will have a $5TN USD economy and will be spending greater than $140BN a year on defence- spreading out the costs of the Rafales over 10-15 years is peanuts in the grander scheme of things.


One thing is for sure, this problem is not going to address itself, someone has to take the bull by its horns and fix the problem and it will be unpalatable for some what the solution is but that is life.


@PARIKRAMA bro, what I think would be good to do is to present an IAF force level by 2022 with no Rafale inductions (and clearly no FGFA either), to see what a pathetic state of affairs the IAF will be in if this prescription isn't taken.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

, what I think would be good to do is to present an IAF force level by 2022 with no Rafale inductions (and clearly no FGFA either), to see what a pathetic state of affairs the

It's a nightmare to see that.. 21s 27s gone
Mirages, jags, mkis and LCA... Some 29s..
LCA number unclear as its HAL production rate
MKI upgrade program unclear when will it start and what will it contain

Avg age of mkis would turn closer to 15 years as earlier mkis to latest MKI avg age calculus

Mirages and Jags will have some 8 years till 2030 to retire.. Use conservatively to ensure numbers don't fall further owing to either higher flying hours of the frame or higher risk of any damage beyond repair.

Couple with say approx 70-75% avg fleet availability for all jets together.

Sorry but this will lead to sleep deprivation for many who thinks honestly.

You are looking at war museum numbers here.. I am harsh but then policy planners got to get their act together.. Or else the number are ridiculous say 500-550 jets with 272 MKI makes it fit for a much smaller country in terms of geography and economy..
For India its outright disaster..

 

[Indiran Chandiran]

That's not correct! The FCAS is nothing else and it follows Taranis & nEUROn development programs.
Simply, as explained by Parikrama, the belief in full aspects all bands VLO is not a staple outside the US
and those that expect to face them by ricochet. In part, it follows electro-optical sensors' successes.
UCAVs of fighter size class would be capacity enhancement tools if inserted in a patrol for point duty.

By itself, it's a subject for its own thread, Tay.

While I'm no expert when it comes to defence matters like my countrymen @PARIKRAMA or @Abingdonboy or even yourself , a cursory search of the internet revealed this :

https://www.google.co.in/url?sa=t&s...7alV2vOPOkRO3KvJA&sig2=PZD6hsHy-Hx1X_1bm3yrmQ

It corroborated what you had to post in terms of a 5 th gen UCAV with plenty of doubts cast on the viability of such a programme by the French & UK , though it does mention a JV by both the afore named parties for a joint development of a 5 th gen UCAV.
Admittedly its an article from 2013.


There doesn't seem to be any development in the offing for a manned 5 th gen aircraft on the lines of the US - F -22 & F-35 , The Chinese, Russians or for that matter the Japenese & the Koreans .The only European nation planning such a venture happens to be Turkey with Saab as a project consultant .

Perhaps , you can shed more light on this subject.