Akinci & Aksungur and Turkish Unmanned Fighter Aircraft Program

[FirstClass]

I am not sure many Western countries are interested in buying Turkish UAVs, though. Even oil-rich Middle East countries would prefer American drones if the US congress allows. I can see a limited number of North African and some Middle East countries may find Turkish Drones interesting, but I don't expect there is going to be a huge demand over there as well.

Perhaps the most challenging part for potential customers is that they have to buy all Turkish ammunition separately. With American drones, the West could just use existing bombs and missiles. For instance, with MQ-9 Reaper can carry Hellfire, JDAM, Stinger and maybe Brimstone.

Perhaps, the most worrying aspect of Akinci to potential operators is Ukrainian turboprop engines. Ivchenko has a bad reputation in the industry. This is the part where Turkey has to prove them wrong with in the next couple of years.

Of course, rich Middle Eastern countries or developed western nations wouldn’t choose Turkish UAVs. They wouldn’t even be able to choose Turkish UAVs even if they wanted to. Because they have gone too deep into the US-manufactured systems. Most of their systems wouldn’t be able to communicate with Turkish UAVs or they just wouldn’t be able to operate them since Turks operate and manufacture under a different doctrine. Therefore, Turkish defence industry companies will aim to persuade countries outside US influence. I don’t want to list any particular countries because each day, we see very different and unexpected countries looking to buy Turkish systems. (For example: Phillipines’ interest in Atak helicopters)

Also, for smaller countries, we can easily say that Turkish UAVs have a couple of advantages compared to western systems. First of all, Turkish UAVs are all battle-tested in active warzones. No country or even terrorist would dare try to shoot down an American or British or French UAV. Meanwhile, everybody’s trying to target Turkish UAVs. This allows engineers to get very valuable data that can only be obtained through active attack and defence situations. Secondly, Turkish UAVs are trained against asymmetrical targets. Since Turkey mostly fights against terrorist organizations with limited or unorthodox defence systems, it can easily adapt its systems against such targets. Their success against the Pantsir-S1 in Libya and Syria can be an example. Of course, you cannot use these UAVs to attack a conventional nation with multi-layered air defence systems. However, you can learn how to pick single targets and perhaps master that ability. Since conventional all-out wars are no longer feeble around the world, we will probably continue to see proxy wars in Middle East or other places. Therefore, these battle-proven systems will surely have their advantages compared to western systems that are designed with conventional wars in mind. Lastly, Turkish UAVs are cheap. For most nations, these UAVs are considered as cannon fodder. They don’t want to lose their precious fighter jets or highly trained pilots for an event with a limited outcome. Jets are expensive and pilots are hard to train. Once you lose them, you lose them. These smaller nations also won’t need any expensive systems. Global Hawks have a unit cost of over 130 million $. Meanwhile, Israeli Heron has double the unit cost of a Bayraktar TB2. You don’t need a Global Hawk or any such hugely expensive drone to control your borders. You need a reliable and cheap drone that can operate for over 24 hours and if you lose one, no big deal because it was dirt cheap anyway. If you lose a Global Hawk, you’re screwed. It is like losing a fighter jet but worse. You’re left with a useless command center .

 

[Ansu fati]

I am not sure many Western countries are interested in buying Turkish UAVs, though. Even oil-rich Middle East countries would prefer American drones if the US congress allows. I can see a limited number of North African and some Middle East countries may find Turkish Drones interesting, but I don't expect there is going to be a huge demand over there as well.

Perhaps the most challenging part for potential customers is that they have to buy all Turkish ammunition separately. With American drones, the West could just use existing bombs and missiles. For instance, with MQ-9 Reaper can carry Hellfire, JDAM, Stinger and maybe Brimstone.

Perhaps, the most worrying aspect of Akinci to potential operators is Ukrainian turboprop engines. Ivchenko has a bad reputation in the industry. This is the part where Turkey has to prove them wrong with in the next couple of years.

Turkish ammunitions are much cheaper plus according to the official bayraktar website there’s option for JDAM kits
Regarding engine we are yet to see how much they are reliable or not the engine offered for Akinci(750hp version to be more specific is one of the newest in its class)
Weapons that Akinci can carry makes this drone unique it’s actually perfect affordable asset in counterterrorism or endangering navy vessels with overwhelming tactics
Europeans aren’t buying since they have history with israeli drones and to be honest they have inferiority complex due to obvious historical sentiments so they would rather have no drones than to buy from turks which is honestly pathetic
Pakistan Malaysia Indonesia Bangladesh Azerbaijan Qatar Ukraine and probably Kuwait and Oman in the Gulf are all likely candidates I would say orders from these countries are more than enough to claim export success

There’s certainly more interested countries
But even if these 9 mentioned countries have modest orders still Turkey could easily earn ~1B only through exporting one single defense item(in this case Akinci) and what about potential Aksungur sales??
I should add this turkish made smart weapons kits are compatible with Western/NATO/Korean/Japanese aircrafts
I don’t see big problems with possible integration if there’s such request from the customer

 

[anatolia]

baykar makina has 750 empoloyee so it must be very profitable to survive.

 

[SgtGungHo]

Once you lose them, you lose them. These smaller nations also won’t need any expensive systems. Global Hawks have a unit cost of over 130 million $. Meanwhile, Israeli Heron has double the unit cost of a Bayraktar TB2. You don’t need a Global Hawk or any such hugely expensive drone to control your borders. You need a reliable and cheap drone that can operate for over 24 hours and if you lose one, no big deal because it was dirt cheap anyway. If you lose a Global Hawk, you’re screwed. It is like losing a fighter jet but worse. You’re left with a useless command center .

The US pretty much filled & is trying to fill out all UAV markets for each price. If prices are potential operator's concerns, the US is developing turbofans-powered XQ-58 Valkyrie and the unit cost of those drones is expected to be a mere $2 million US dollar. It will be very difficult to beat that price and functionality which includes a data link with F-35 and etc. Ukraine paid what $69m for 6 Turkish UAVs? That's over $10m per piece. Let that sink for a moment.

Pakistan Malaysia Indonesia Bangladesh Azerbaijan Qatar Ukraine and probably Kuwait and Oman

They have options to buy Chinese or Russian drones. In fact, Pakistan already ordered Wing Loong II. And I am pretty sure both Qatar and Kuwait would prefer American UAVs if they are allowed to buy them.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1265414532605698050

Genius is nothing but infinite capacity to take pains - Samuel Smiles (Life and Labor)

 

[Kamil_baku]

As Aerbaijan has som missiles, we will probably be the first one to purhase it...

The US pretty much filled & is trying to fill out all UAV markets for each price. If prices are potential operator's concerns, the US is developing turbofans-powered XQ-58 Valkyrie and the unit cost of those drones is expected to be a mere $2 million US dollar. It will be very difficult to beat that price and functionality which includes a data link with F-35 and etc. Ukraine paid what $69m for 6 Turkish UAVs? That's over $10m per piece. Let that sink for a moment.



They have options to buy Chinese or Russian drones. In fact, Pakistan already ordered Wing Loong II. And I am pretty sure both Qatar and Kuwait would prefer American UAVs if they are allowed to buy them.

mr, last time the US lost a drone, the price tag was 250 million, which had similar league with AKini

 

[SgtGungHo]

As Aerbaijan has som missiles, we will probably be the first one to purhase it...

mr bullshit, last time the US lost a drone, the prie tag was 250 million, whih had similar leaque with AKini

I am not sure why you are triggered and honestly I am not sure which drone you are talking about. Only fools would think Akini will be in the league with turbofan-powered Global Hawk which is one of the best surveillance UAV in the world. I am sure you are not the fool.

Akini is probably more comparable with turboprop-powered General Atomics Reaper is around $12~15m and turbofan-powered General Atomics Avenger is said to be around the same price.

Kratos Valkyrie which is turbofan-powered and has characteristics of stealth bombers is expected to be around $2m. I mean Australia even manages to build a Boeing Loyal Wingman for around $3~4m per piece.

There is no significant advantage of Turkish drone in prices when you factor in the facts that potential operators would have to pay extra money to buy Turkish armaments or integration of American weapons, Turkish drones are not significantly cheaper than alternatives from other countries such as China and the drone will be equipped with unreliable Ukrainian Turboprop engines.

I suggest you to refute my reasonable doubt with reason and be civil.

 

[-SINAN-]

Perhaps the most challenging part for potential customers is that they have to buy all Turkish ammunition separately.

How do you know that Turkish UAVs are not compatible with NATO standard ammunition.

 

[azyr]

There is yet another Chinese idiot in this thread that is spewing unfounded bullshit right and left. At this point I'm tired of educating the rice farmers and thus i think it's a more effective use of forum space and my time if a message would be given to all of them in a single post.

Dear Chinese trolls, it's getting tiresome and annoying, you've crossed the cute barrier into the mosquito realm - please kindly **** off.

 

[egolfs]

I am not sure why you are triggered and honestly I am not sure which drone you are talking about. Only fools would think Akini will be in the league with turbofan-powered Global Hawk which is one of the best surveillance UAV in the world. I am sure you are not the fool.

Akini is probably more comparable with turboprop-powered General Atomics Reaper is around $12~15m and turbofan-powered General Atomics Avenger is said to be around the same price.

Kratos Valkyrie which is turbofan-powered and has characteristics of stealth bombers is expected to be around $2m. I mean Australia even manages to build a Boeing Loyal Wingman for around $3~4m per piece.

There is no significant advantage of Turkish drone in prices when you factor in the facts that potential operators would have to pay extra money to buy Turkish armaments or integration of American weapons, Turkish drones are not significantly cheaper than alternatives from other countries such as China and the drone will be equipped with unreliable Ukrainian Turboprop engines.

I suggest you to refute my reasonable doubt with reason and be civil.

"Price" is not everything.
Turkey can provide UAVs to friendly countries that the USA or Europeans will not. Even if the Americans or Europeans do provide these vehicles today, there is no guarantee they will do so tomorrow and there is no way to be sure that parts or ammunition are not sanctioned in the future.

Turkey (a NATO partner) was not even sold "unarmed"aerial vehicles because of the US Congress, never mind armed-aerial vehicles.

Now, is an opportunity for Turkey to establish itself as a reliable supplier of battle tested weapons for a reasonable price. In your hour of need, your supply chain must be solid.
"Trust" is the most important thing.

 

[polanski]

Bayraktar TB2 vs Wing Loong II: Turkey Demonstrated Only Air Power Can Defeat Enemy Using Drones: https://www.globaldefensecorp.com/2...only-air-power-can-defeat-enemy-using-drones/

 

[SgtGungHo]

"Price" is not everything.
Turkey can provide UAVs to friendly countries that the USA or Europeans will not. Even if the Americans or Europeans do provide these vehicles today, there is no guarantee they will do so tomorrow and no way to be sure that parts or ammunition are not sanctioned in the future.

Turkey (a NATO partner) was not even sold "unarmed"aerial vehicles because of the US Congress, never mind armed-aerial vehicles.

Now, is an opportunity for Turkey to establish itself as a reliable supplier of battle tested weapons for a reasonable price. In your hour of need, your supply chain must be solid.
"Trust" is the most important thing.

I agree. Every country can't rely on others for weapon procurement 100%. We have seen how Turkey has failed to delivery attack helicopters to Pakistan and had to delay the shipment because the country couldn't secure engine export license from the US. There is no guarantee whether Turkey or America could provide weapons and platforms on time when they are required.

That's why even countries like Indonesia develops own UAV and Pakistan tries to build Chinese UAV under the license. They try to build their own industry. However, if their circumstances don't allow them to develop indigenous UAV, it seems clear that the US allies would mostly choose American drones based on many factors and non-US allies would have options to buy drones from Chinese. I am sure the EU will have their own UAVs in the future.

By the way, I am not here to bash Turkish UAVs (I think they are very good vehicles) or offend anyone, but to discuss the drone's viability for export since someone brought up the subject.

 

[ANMDT]

@SgtGungHo
US does not approve sale of UAVs to every county. It is doubted if Kratos or Valkrie will be sold as well.
Chinese drones are quite cheap, but they have either been operated by inexperienced staff or simply they dont perform well in all conditions. I even doubt if China uses their own WLII for military purposes.
Despite of being "more expensive" (However, the true price of serially produced turkish drones remain unclear, all sales up to now has covered some of ToT - local production, Training, Ground services and unknown amount of ammunition and spare parts, and far from calculation of per unit price due to excessive spending on development and number of production) Turkish drones offer some capability and has been proven in battlefield which is not offered by US or other countries experienced in drone technology to all countries.
I have the same concern regarding to the Akıncı project but in presented informations it also had PW engine (variant of engine being used in Hurkus trainer) -which is going to be tested- option besides of Ukranian engine, it is clear that project is being in rush but on the R&D part the company should do something to stay alive besides of the production.
Turkey had issues regarding to importing engines, you are judging Turkish defense industry entirely from Australian point of view, which can "buy" anything from UK&US even with ToT and without restricted use,however it is not the case for Turkey. Our primary concern is to be sufficient in our own with minimal foreign interference in projects, the secondary one is making profits by mass sale of the drones.
Basic principle, price of an asset is driven by the supply, is there any other country openly supplying drones with strike capabilities in the market? not except of chinese.
Check out the users of Chinese drones it will give some insight.

Indonesia develops own UAV

Indonesia has bought CH-4, morelikely going to produce a modified new variant as Indonesian UAV with some local components -or at least locally produced airframe. Chinese has offered "technical assistance".
Will be similar as Burraq UCAV of pakistan, based on chinese CH-3 but improved-redesigned variant with local systems.

 

[Ansu fati]

They have options to buy Chinese or Russian drones. In fact, Pakistan already ordered Wing Loong II. And I am pretty sure both Qatar and Kuwait would prefer American UAVs if they are allowed to buy them.

Russian drones cannot be compared with turkish ones or to be more exact there’s no currently real russian MALE/HALE drone
They(most of them) won’t buy chinese drones for a number of reasons
Why would Indonesia/Malaysia buy from China a drone that could be used as cheap option in naval tensions(East China Sea)
These countries have maritime disputes we certainly shouldn’t expect from them to buy from China
Azerbaijan is strategic ally just like Qatar and Ukraine
Your suggestion that Ukraine might buy russian(the aggressor in Crimea and Donbas) or chinese UAV system is mind boggling
Kuwait and Oman want diversification but why would they buy non-western incompatible drones with western ammunition???(I’m using your argument here from previous posts)
Bangladesh obviously is heavily interested in acquiring turkish weapons hence why they ordered hisar SAM systems even though they still haven’t entered into TAF inventory
More or less I explained reasons why most of these mentioned countries won’t buy chinese/russian drones
Your what about argument for american UAVs can’t be taken serious
Because US has tight regulation regarding Predator drones only selected NATO countries have it(recently they allowed India to buy it for the sake of milking them in the future all of us know that americans plan to use India as counterweight for China)
Regarding Pakistan yes they bought Wing Long II but comparing it with Akinci is literally an insult to me it’s like comparing
Zastava 750 to Ferrari
I’m pretty sure Pakistan will need Akinci how much and whether they would buy we can’t know now but what’s certain is that they will be one of the most interested countries

 

[-------]

Are TB2 and Karayel still the only UAVs to be NATO STANAG 4671 compliant?