Air C.Marshal Browne confirms MiG-21 and MiG-27 to be phased out by 2019

[sancho]

Chances are high that @sandy_3126 is right on MKI numbers.

BTW considering 30 ac per year from Nasik 70 isn't a huge number.

I don't rule it out, I'm just saying it would be a silly decision. Also they don't produce 30 MKIs a year right? Even the production of the 40 x additionals will take around 3 years, so we are talking about finishing additional 70 around 2025. That's at least 3 years after we started FGFA production, finishing 108 x Rafales and 188 x LCAs. So how should this make any sense?

 

[janon]

The shortfall is just a paper issue, in reality IAF will easily able to manage since they are more effective now with multi role fighters than they were in the past with single role fighters. In future things will change even more, since less manned fighter squads will be needed, because drones will take over more and more of the missions.

Trouble is, the enemy is also more capable now! All of PAF's future fighters will be fully multirole as well, and China now has five full fledged air bases in Tibet, and both countries have tankers and AEWACs. We are not looking at the PAF or PLAAF of the past either, things are changing for them too.

I don't rule it out, I'm just saying it would be a silly decision. Also they don't produce 30 MKIs a year right? Even the production of the 40 x additionals will take around 3 years, so we are talking about finishing additional 70 around 2025. That's at least 3 years after we started FGFA production, finishing 108 x Rafales and 188 x LCAs. So how should this make any sense?

That's the one big issue that complicates and spoils all plans - HAL's abysmally low rate of production. Last I heard, they were struggling to make 16 MKIs per year. If they could have doubled that rate by now, a few more squadrons of MKIs would have made a lot of sense.

 

[sancho]

Trouble is, the enemy is also more capable now! All of PAF's future fighters will be fully multirole as well, and China now has five full fledged air bases in Tibet, and both countries have tankers and AEWACs. We are not looking at the PAF or PLAAF of the past either, things are changing for them too.

That's another issue, but has nothing to do with the shrinking squadron number and more troubling than the fighters on their or our side, is the lack of enough strategic capabilities of enough AWACS and Tankers now.

That's the one big issue that complicates and spoils all plans - HAL's abysmally low rate of production. Last I heard, they were struggling to make 16 MKIs per year. If they could have doubled that rate by now, a few more squadrons of MKIs would have made a lot of sense.

Not even IRKUT has produced so many MKIs a year, the max was 12 if I remember correctly, so why do we expect HAL to to far more the the original manufacturer could? Especially when we talk about a timeframe, where HAL would produce 3 other fighter types too. I would say 16 x MKIs at the same time as FGFA, Rafale and LCA would be produce, would be quiet an achievement, but that still doesn't make a follow order necessary. Operationally we need more FGFAs, so logically they should go for increased orders of that fighter, with more future potential.

 

[janon]

That's another issue, but has nothing to do with the shrinking squadron number and more troubling than the fighters on their or our side, is the lack of enough strategic capabilities of enough AWACS and Tankers now.



Not even IRKUT has produced so many MKIs a year, the max was 12 if I remember correctly, so why do we expect HAL to to far more the the original manufacturer could? Especially when we talk about a timeframe, where HAL would produce 3 other fighter types too. I would say 16 x MKIs at the same time as FGFA, Rafale and LCA would be produce, would be quiet an achievement, but that still doesn't make a follow order necessary. Operationally we need more FGFAs, so logically they should go for increased orders of that fighter, with more future potential.

The total number of MKIs manufactured by Irkut was only 50, the rest (222) were contracted to HAL. Why would Irkut set up an assembly line with a high production volume for such a small order? On the other hand, it should be financially viable for HAL to set up a high volume production line, or even a second assembly line for such a high number. After all, they are setting up a production line to manufacture 108 rafales. The order for MKIs has been twice as large.

@sandy_3126 : Do you know HAL's current production rate of MKIs? Also, what does it take to increase production rate, is it possible with one assembly line?

 

[sancho]

The total number of MKIs manufactured by Irkut was only 50, the rest (222) were contracted to HAL. Why would Irkut set up an assembly line with a high production volume for such a small order?

They didn't made Su 30s only for us, but for other export customers too and the production rate has nothing to do with the size of the order, but with the capability of how many you can produce. So again, when the original manufacturer don't produce that many, why should HAL be able to do that? Su 34s are currently produced at 10 fighters a year if I'm not wrong and that with all the commonality to the older Flankers...

 

[sasi]

I think, su 30mki production line is converted and upgraded to produce FGFA in 2019-2022 timeframe !

 

[AUSTERLITZ]

It was a good strike fighter, but time and air warfare has changed and today it's next to useless, since any multi role fighter offers pretty much the same too. That's why it was silly to keep producing it till 2008, without looking at the future and why it would be as silly to keep producing MKI, only because we can. Even Russias early Pak Fas would be a better procurement, then MKIs beyond 2019s, because the minute a stealth fighter will be available in IAF, it changes everything wrt tactics, capabilities. And as soon as Pak Fa/FGFA will be available, MKIs roles will be dramatically reduced in IAF too, since they will take over the main air superiority roles, alongside Rafales, while LCA will take over the cost-effective low end roles like CAP and air policing.



The shortfall is just a paper issue, in reality IAF will easily able to manage since they are more effective now with multi role fighters than they were in the past with single role fighters. In future things will change even more, since less manned fighter squads will be needed, because drones will take over more and more of the missions.

But with mig-27s being retired,and mmrca not in schedule how will we maintain striking power without jaguars?I think thats why iaf does jaguar upgrade.PAK fa won't be here for another 8-9 yrs.rafale not in sufficient number sin 6-7 yrs.Till then we would be wide open to compromise.I think thats why jaguar was upgraded from around 2007-08.

 

[sancho]

But with mig-27s being retired,and mmrca not in schedule how will we maintain striking power without jaguars?I think thats why iaf does jaguar upgrade.PAK fa won't be here for another 8-9 yrs.rafale not in sufficient number sin 6-7 yrs.Till then we would be wide open to compromise.I think thats why jaguar was upgraded from around 2007-08.

MKI, M2KUPG, Mig 29UPG, LCA MK1 => more than 350 fighters with at least as much, or even far better capabilities. Add the follow on order of MKIs and the additional capabilities the Super 30s, or the first Rafales will bring and you will harldy miss any of the current strike fighters. As I said in another thread recently, the best would be to sell the last 2 squads of Jags to Afghansitan, to bolster their CAS capabilities, instead of keeping them for the next 3 decades in IAF without any use.

 

[Storm Force]

My guess IAF AT BEST BY 2019 will have the following

272 SU30MKI (INCLUDING 40 SUPER SUKHOI)
50 Rafale (assuming the deal is signed by October 2013 ) license production starting 2017
50 Mirage 2000 dash 5 (upgrades actually due to finish in 2019)
60 Mig29 smt
72 upgradec Darin jaguar
40 MKI lca tejas

THATS ABOUT 30 SQDS

UNLESS THE IAF make emergency additional orders of MIG29/MIRAGE2000 second hand this is wat i think the IAF will look like

MK2 tejas will not arrive until 2020
PAK FA 2022
Rafale license production if agreed to buy will start 54 months after 2013 ie mid 2017

if i was ACM i would change MMRCA to 36 FRENCH SUPPLIED RAFALE with 3 years of signature & 90 license built

MMRCA project and SNAILS PACE LCA project has FUCKED UP IAF nos for GOOD

 

[Sergi]

I don't rule it out, I'm just saying it would be a silly decision. Also they don't produce 30 MKIs a year right? Even the production of the 40 x additionals will take around 3 years, so we are talking about finishing additional 70 around 2025. That's at least 3 years after we started FGFA production, finishing 108 x Rafales and 188 x LCAs. So how should this make any sense?

Well I don't know the exact production rate. The last publicly known achieved production rate is 16 ac per year. There was a news/rumour that HAL step up production to 30. Nothing to verify it but last year we see induction of 2 Squds and it is most likely that we will see two this year also.
And to finish up the production order of 272 the deadline is 2017. So if we add 70 more it will be around 2020/21.


Press Information Bureau English Releases

HAL to Build 16 Sukhois Annually To Meet IAF Induction Plan - Defence Now

 

[AUSTERLITZ]

My guess IAF AT BEST BY 2019 will have the following

272 SU30MKI (INCLUDING 40 SUPER SUKHOI)
50 Rafale (assuming the deal is signed by October 2013 ) license production starting 2017
50 Mirage 2000 dash 5 (upgrades actually due to finish in 2019)
60 Mig29 smt
72 upgradec Darin jaguar
40 MKI lca tejas

THATS ABOUT 30 SQDS

UNLESS THE IAF make emergency additional orders of MIG29/MIRAGE2000 second hand this is wat i think the IAF will look like

MK2 tejas will not arrive until 2020
PAK FA 2022
Rafale license production if agreed to buy will start 54 months after 2013 ie mid 2017

if i was ACM i would change MMRCA to 36 FRENCH SUPPLIED RAFALE with 3 years of signature & 90 license built

MMRCA project and SNAILS PACE LCA project has FUCKED UP IAF nos for GOOD

Some mistakes there,by 2019 lca tejas mk1 would be around 60-80.
And darin jaguars would be 130 not 72.

 

[Storm Force]

India wil not induct more than 40 mk 1 lca austerlitz. And hot all 130 jags wil be retained i had 4 sqds only

 

[fsayed]

India wil not induct more than 40 mk 1 lca austerlitz. And hot all 130 jags wil be retained i had 4 sqds only

y not induct 8 to 10 sqn for cas of tejas mk1 after after mk2 is ready sell mk1 to afganistan

 

[soumya1989]

y not induct 8 to 10 sqn for cas of tejas mk1 after after mk2 is ready sell mk1 to afganistan

this is not possible. we need them most and hal is not in a state to export it to other countries. and we need nod from countries like US

 

[Storm Force]

India cant mass produce lca only 8- 10 planes máx.plus mk1is not really to iaf asr so only 40 Ordered.