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After Indonesia election, new crop of leaders in focus for 2024 vote

I have a BIG hunch that RK will be one BIG candidate.

It seems so, Ridwan Kamil is a rational leader. He also doesnt come from the right or left wings parties. Seems perfect to be our next leader and unite the nation further. PDIP I believe will pick Central Java governor or even Risma as their Presidential candidate.

I dont think next Presidential candidate comes from our new cabinet, except for Prabowo that I believe still have ambition and energy for that race.

There is chance that there will be three candidates which are Ridwan Kamil, Ganjar Pranowo/Risma, and Prabowo Subianto. So the election will be conducted in two steps.
 
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To be honest, Jokowi must choose his successor.

Or his current policy will be reversed once he stepped down.

Just like what happened in Jakarta.


Indonesia is in the transition era, there are still a lot of people who comfortable with the old way.
 
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My bet is in Ganjar . He is really have jokowi charm also a very rational and tolerant leader.
Also imo he is a better speaker than Jokowi.

My dream candidate is Ganjar-Risma/RK.
If it happening indonesia future is bright
 
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AHY join the race for 2024 Presidential election as he becomes Democrat party leader. If democrat party get good support in the parliament election (I think parliament and presidential election will be held separately again), the party will surely try to put him as presidential candidate.

 
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Another popular personality that has potency to be either President or Vice President in 2024. Susi Pujianty.

 
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Indonesia 2024 election strong candidate and their English fluency. All the strong candidate age are below 52 years old currently, except Prabowo Subianto

Prabowo Subianto


Ridwan Kamil, West Java governor


Sandiaga Uno, Conglomerate and last year VP candidate


Anies Baswedan, Jakarta Governor


Agus Yudoyono, Democrat Party Leader

 
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Erick Thohir, the man to watch in Indonesian politics
  • Marchio Irfan Gorbiano
    The Jakarta Post
Jakarta / Tue, August 4, 2020 / 08:07 am

2020_07_21_100674_1595304478._large.jpg

State-Owned Enterprises Minister Erick Thohir (Antara/Dhemas Reviyanto)

For someone with little experience in politics and who is mostly known as a businessman, the meteoric rise of State-Owned Enterprises Minister Erick Thohir has surprised many, and it was his business-like attitude that won the heart of President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, who has continued to trust him to handle major issues.

The recent issuance of Presidential Regulation (Perpres) 82/2020, which gives Erick a new job as the executive director of the government’s COVID-19 Response and Economic Recovery Committee, is an indication of the high degree of trust shown by the President in the former businessman, political analysts have said.

Erick, who was previously best known as the founder of media and entertainment holding firm PT Mahaka Media, has few ties to political parties and is, therefore, seen as more independent than other politically affiliated Cabinet members, head of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI) Political Research Center Firman Noor said.


“Erick has relatively few political ties with political parties, which makes his calculations [of decisions] more independent and, therefore, as Jokowi wanted, easier to implement without having to bargain with so many stakeholders,” Firman said.

His role as head the COVID-19 recovery program is the most recent in his long list of government assignments, which begun with his job as chairman of the Indonesia Asian Games Organizing Committee (INASGOC). He was widely credited as the man behind the successful staging of the 2018 Asian Games. Following this role, he was tapped to lead the Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin campaign team and, following Jokowi’s reelection, was appointed as SOEs minister.

Firman of LIPI said Erick’s impressive track record and growing job portfolio had garnered him the respect of members of the political coalition in Jokowi's government.

He said the appointment of Erick to lead the post-COVID-19 recovery was also an indication that Jokowi had shifted his priority from public health to the economy.


“This [Erick’s appointment] could be generally read as Jokowi’s effort to steer Indonesia’s economic recovery. His focus is to rebuild and find new opportunities post-COVID-19,” said Firman.

Perpres 82/2020 initially raised eyebrows as it annulled Presidential Decree (Keppres) 7/2020, which was the legal basis for the establishment of the government’s COVID-19 task force, which was headed by National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) chief Doni Monardo. Many considered the setting up of the task force, consisting mostly of Jokowi's economic ministers, to be an indication that Jokowi was now focusing primarily on the economy and not the ongoing health crisis.

The Perpres, however, also stipulates that the government’s COVID-19 Response and National Economic Recovery Committee is to consist of a policy committee, a COVID-19 response task force, led by BNPB’s Doni, as well as the economic recovery and transformation task force, led by Deputy SOE Minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin.

Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) political observer Arya Fernandes said Erick’s appointment as the leader of the post-COVID-19 recovery team could be seen as Jokowi’s effort to groom his potential successor.

“It could be that Pak Erick is a potential [presidential] candidate President Jokowi has in mind for 2024, which is why he [Erick] was groomed with assignments that allow him to interact with policymakers, regional leaders and political parties,” Arya said.

Despite Erick’s growing role in Jokowi’s administration, he has continued to perform poorly in opinion polls, with his electability rating as a possible presidential candidate remaining in the single digits, recent surveys have shown.

Erick’s electability rating stood at 1 percent in a public opinion poll conducted by Jakarta-based pollster Indikator Politik Indonesia in July, trailing politicians like Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, with an electability rating of 16.2 percent, Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan at 15 percent and Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto at 13.5 percent.

In another poll conducted by Charta Politika, only 5.8 percent of respondents thought Erick was doing a good job, behind Prabowo, who received a job approval rating of 12.8 percent and Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati at 11.5 percent, respectively.

In the same poll conducted by Charta Politika, Erick's electability rating was 2.1 percent, far behind Prabowo at 17.5 percent, Ganjar at 15.9 percent and Anies at 15 percent.

Senior officials in Jokowi's administration have said that with his new role as leader of the COVID-19 recovery team, Erick would have direct access to the President.

Cabinet Secretary Pramono Anung said the President had direct control over the committee’s policies regarding the handling of COVID-19 and the national economic recovery and that the Perpres stipulated that the committee directly reported to Jokowi.

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news...-the-man-to-watch-in-indonesian-politics.html
 
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Some important information for non Indonesian member:

1. Indonesia poitics is not something that can be easily divided into Nationaliist vs Islamist. The only Nationalist party that has been seen as major opposing group of Islamist power in Indonesia is PDIP which is lead by Megawati Soekarnoputri, Soekarno daughter. The are many Christian politician become the member of the party despite it is still lead by Megawati who is Muslim and several important leaders which are also Muslim but with secular ideas. PDIP last political electibility is 20 % and currently lead the coalition under Jokowi presidency. We can define PDIP as left wing and secular Nationalist party.

2. Other big nationalist parties are Gerindra (second biggest follower after PDIP), Golkar (third biggest), Nasdem and Democrat. Despite being Nationalist, those parties can be regarded as Nationalist Religius party which closesness to Islamist political power where Nasdem could be regarded as more lean to make coalition with PDIP but this party which is lead by Muslim Acehnese descent also can make coalition with hard core Islamist party like PKS (Justice Party) and has made some meeting with them about a year ago.

3. Islamist parties are PKS, PAN, Bulan Bintang, PPP, PKB where the hard core one is PKS and this party never want to make coalition with PDIP Party while the rest Islamist parties are now in coalition with Jokowi administration.

4. Indonesian political future also depends on personal power with good and reasonable economic policy and also good track record. This makes high rank party leader should make a compromise if some charismatic and proven leader comes from grassroot emerge if they want to win any election. Jokowi for instant is not among the high ranking official of PDIP but instead he was a local PDIP leader in his hometown in Solo (City). PDIP can win because he pick Jokowi as its President candidate where Megawati herself (PDIP leader) has lost two Presidential election (2004 and 2009)

5. Recent pooling shows the emergence of Nationalist religious and Islamist leaders could lead Indonesia in the next 2024 election with huge margin. This is why some Nationalist Secular power tried to change the constitution that is amandement during Reformasi period (1999-2004) that forbid Presidency candidate to have more than two term.

6. The attempt to change constitution will likely get opposition from NGO, civil society leaders and university students group. Jokowi himself has said clearly he despise the attempt to amend constitution and make him rule Indonesia for the third term.

7. Kompas media group that is lead by Christian family has tried the latest attempt by making a survey for 2024 election by making Jokowi as the eligable candidate to be picked on that election.

8. Amending constitution cannot be done in parliament but rather in MPR which is the highest political institution in Indonesia where the members come from all parliament leaders with civil society leaders. It cannot be done by simple majority votes and at least if I am not wrong the constitution can only be amended if it is supported by around 70 % of MPR members.

9, Any power that is seen as trying to allow Presidency to get third term will be seen as anti democratic force and will damage their reputation that could impact their long term future in Indonesian politics.
 
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Some important information for non Indonesian member:

1. Indonesia poitics is not something that can be easily divided into Nationaliist vs Islamist. The only Nationalist party that has been seen as major opposing group of Islamist power in Indonesia is PDIP which is lead by Megawati Soekarnoputri, Soekarno daughter. The are many Christian politician become the member of the party despite it is still lead by Megawati who is Muslim and several important leaders which are also Muslim but with secular ideas. PDIP last political electibility is 20 % and currently lead the coalition under Jokowi presidency. We can define PDIP as left wing and secular Nationalist party.

2. Other big nationalist parties are Gerindra (second biggest follower after PDIP), Golkar (third biggest), Nasdem and Democrat. Despite being Nationalist, those parties can be regarded as Nationalist Religius party which closesness to Islamist political power where Nasdem could be regarded as more lean to make coalition with PDIP but this party which is lead by Muslim Acehnese descent also can make coalition with hard core Islamist party like PKS (Justice Party) and has made some meeting with them about a year ago.

3. Islamist parties are PKS, PAN, Bulan Bintang, PPP, PKB where the hard core one is PKS and this party never want to make coalition with PDIP Party while the rest Islamist parties are now in coalition with Jokowi administration.

4. Indonesian political future also depends on personal power with good and reasonable economic policy and also good track record. This makes high rank party leader should make a compromise if some charismatic and proven leader comes from grassroot emerge if they want to win any election. Jokowi for instant is not among the high ranking official of PDIP but instead he was a local PDIP leader in his hometown in Solo (City). PDIP can win because he pick Jokowi as its President candidate where Megawati herself (PDIP leader) has lost two Presidential election (2004 and 2009)

5. Recent pooling shows the emergence of Nationalist religious and Islamist leaders could lead Indonesia in the next 2024 election with huge margin. This is why some Nationalist Secular power tried to change the constitution that is amandement during Reformasi period (1999-2004) that forbid Presidency candidate to have more than two term.

6. The attempt to change constitution will likely get opposition from NGO, civil society leaders and university students group. Jokowi himself has said clearly he despise the attempt to amend constitution and make him rule Indonesia for the third term.

7. Kompas media group that is lead by Christian family has tried the latest attempt by making a survey for 2024 election by making Jokowi as the eligable candidate to be picked on that election.

8. Amending constitution cannot be done in parliament but rather in MPR which is the highest political institution in Indonesia where the members come from all parliament leaders with civil society leaders. It cannot be done by simple majority votes and at least if I am not wrong the constitution can only be amended if it is supported by around 70 % of MPR members.

9, Any power that is seen as trying to allow Presidency to get third term will be seen as anti democratic force and will damage their reputation that could impact their long term future in Indonesian politics.
My forecast:
  1. Indonesia will be controlled by Islamist, it's just when.
  2. The secular will be marginalized, it will take about 1-2 generations.
  3. 1-2 generations later, Indonesia will be completely Islam country whose 90% population are Muslim.
 
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My forecast:
  1. Indonesia will be controlled by Islamist, it's just when.
  2. The secular will be marginalized, it will take about 1-2 generations.
  3. 1-2 generations later, Indonesia will be completely Islam country whose 90% population are Muslim.

Government under Nationalist Religius-Islamist administration (1998-1999) Habibie with Golkar party, under Abdurrahman Wahid around 2000's, and SBY administration 2004-2014 is very fair, never target other person ideology,

While after Yusuf Kalla which is an Islamist is not VP of Jokowi administration in Jokowi second term, Jokowi administration now targets respected body KPK, Indonesia Anti Corruption Body, and make an ideology test since our Anti Corruption Body which is proven to be very success are mostly filled by many honest Islamist who fight the corruption with Jihad spirit. 72 will likely be fired. This is really undemocratic but we will see what will happen. Pers and Civil Society leaders are not shutting their mouth.

Muslim Indonesia has already reach almost 90 percent, around 88-89 percent based on latest census.

 
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Those fired 72 KPK officers will speak out he he. This is stupid attempt that clearly is made base on hate. All respected KPK former leaders, even Christian one is against this Ideology test, so it is clear that the one that will destroy NKRI is Nationalist Secular power (PDIP) and this will be remembered in history ha ha.

Dont know how stupid they are by seeing the recent survey of 2024 President candidate are Prabowo, Anies Baswedan, Sandiaga Uno, Ridwan Kamil, and Agus Yudhoyono while PDIP only has 2 candidates that not even reach the most popular. All Survey from different Survey companies have shown similar results with not so much different in number.

Those 74 KPK officials will speak out and inshaAllah will come back to KPK after new administration emerge under Nationalist Religius and Islamist coalition banner. And when the times comes, we are going to clear all corrupt KPK officials inside KPK building inshaAllah.
 
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Those fired 72 KPK officers will speak out he he. This is stupid attempt that clearly is made base on hate. All respected KPK former leaders, even Christian one is against this Ideology test, so it is clear that the one that will destroy NKRI is Nationalist Secular power (PDIP) and this will be remembered in history ha ha.

Dont know how stupid they are by seeing the recent survey of 2024 President candidate are Prabowo, Anies Baswedan, Sandiaga Uno, Ridwan Kamil, and Agus Yudhoyono while PDIP only has 2 candidates that not even reach the most popular. All Survey from different Survey companies have shown similar results with not so much different in number.

Those 74 KPK officials will speak out and inshaAllah will come back to KPK after new administration emerge under Nationalist Religius and Islamist coalition banner. And when the times comes, we are going to clear all corrupt KPK officials inside KPK building inshaAllah.
God willing, I want to see Indonesia prosper. My time there long back was good. People are really sincere and hard working. They deserve good leadership and especially corruption back then was really bad. I hope it is different now.

I was very impressed by the engineering teams i was working with. Lot of great ideas and drive. They can make it a great country.

my sweet spot: Indomie !!!! and Bobotek --- (also our national dish here named as bobotjie)
 
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My forecast:
  1. Indonesia will be controlled by Islamist, it's just when.
  2. The secular will be marginalized, it will take about 1-2 generations.
  3. 1-2 generations later, Indonesia will be completely Islam country whose 90% population are Muslim.

Indonesia is more secular than Malaysia. During the anti colonial war, there are 2 groups of resistance, the communist and Islamist.

Sukarno is pro communist.

Suharto make use of Islamist to gain power, with support from CIA (Islamist never side with communist. Always USA). Then Suharto kick Islamist one side.

Indon elites are those families who fought with Sukarno, as well as cronies of Suharto.

Today somehow the secularist still have the upper hands.

Meanwhile Malaysia was from the start ruled by corrupt royals and their cadet branch. Malaysia is a reactionary country,
 
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God willing, I want to see Indonesia prosper. My time there long back was good. People are really sincere and hard working. They deserve good leadership and especially corruption back then was really bad. I hope it is different now.

I was very impressed by the engineering teams i was working with. Lot of great ideas and drive. They can make it a great country.

my sweet spot: Indomie !!!! and Bobotek --- (also our national dish here named as bobotjie)

Not yet being fired those 75 KPK officers, our democracy works and civilian leaders and media fight back !!!!!!!!!

Even second largest Islamic organization, Muhammadiyah, step in and will bring this case to the court if those 75 get fired. This is why I said democracy is the best system to fight corruption in any country
 
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Agus Yudhoyono, Democrat Party Leader, and oldest son of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, former Indonesian Presiden, steal the start and invite media to his house to have iftar after fasting. I know this most probably paying TV One to get the reporter eat with him and his wife, Anissa Pohan. The media is TV One which is close to Islamist audience. So we know his target market.

 
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