Abbotabad Report | Discussions, analysis & recommendations.

[Jango]

However; @nuclearpak, the Commission Report also looks at the sheer lack /or absence of coordinated policy and decision making at the highest levels; which is actually a more critically important issue than even the Intelligence failure(s).

@nuclearpak, please vet this post.

And that is point.

Instead of just repeating the same old mantra 'ISI failed, X failed, Y failed, they are incompetent' bla bla bla, bring in recommendations. Bring in your own thoughts. Once there was a debate going on in the forum b/w MastanKhan and some TT, MK said that he is different because instead of just bashing everything under the sun for no reason, he gives a solution as well. Now whether his solutions are viable or not, that's another issue. Atleast he gives some, rather than just being critical.

Being a critic is good, you get to identify weaknesses, but just being a critic for the sake of it isn't good. Shughal main besti kartay rehna. That shouldn't happen. Be constructive.

If somebody gives recommendations, then we can work on from there. But just saying 'the status quo is strong, nothing gonna happen, we are doomed, fauj tabahi kar rahi hai, ISI is failing' isn't gonna help anyone or anything.

I said this after the Kamra attack as well, just repeating the lines 'PAF failed, lanat ho, kisi kaam kay nhn' isn't gonna help, talk in a constructive manner and identify the weaknesses and then rectify them.

I've changed the thread title.

 

[Hyperion]

@WebMaster, mate I need access to this section. All good discussions go on here, and I can't take part. Horrible.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

And that is point.

Instead of just repeating the same old mantra 'ISI failed, X failed, Y failed, they are incompetent' bla bla bla, bring in recommendations. Bring in your own thoughts. Once there was a debate going on in the forum b/w MastanKhan and some TT, MK said that he is different because instead of just bashing everything under the sun for no reason, he gives a solution as well. Now whether his solutions are viable or not, that's another issue. Atleast he gives some, rather than just being critical.

Being a critic is good, you get to identify weaknesses, but just being a critic for the sake of it isn't good. Shughal main besti kartay rehna. That shouldn't happen. Be constructive.

If somebody gives recommendations, then we can work on from there. But just saying 'the status quo is strong, nothing gonna happen, we are doomed, fauj tabahi kar rahi hai, ISI is failing' isn't gonna help anyone or anything.

I said this after the Kamra attack as well, just repeating the lines 'PAF failed, lanat ho, kisi kaam kay nhn' isn't gonna help, talk in a constructive manner and identify the weaknesses and then rectify them.

I've changed the thread title.

Agreed. Talking about the Problems ad nauseum is no Solution.
But if I may add; the core issue(s) are/have been (as indicated in the Report) the sheer lack of understanding/co-ordination between the various arms of the Govt. whether Military or Civilian. Why has that been so?
The expression "trust-deficit" is used very often around us (even in the Report). Why is there a long-running "trust-deficit" between the Military and the Civilians? To cause such a huge schism. Which seems to bigger than any sectarian divide. That is at the core of the problems of Policy and Executive failures that have been exposed by the report.

@nuclearpak; I do see that you have been speaking of the Intelligence issues numerous times now. Bu please do not let that blind-side you to the Command and Control issues at the Highest Echelons, whether Civilian or Military. That (IMO) is the epicenter of it all.

Abount constructive/remedial action. The first thing is circulation of the Report at least within the portals of Govt. That it has been spilled into the Public Domain is accidental, but in hind-sight may prove to be boon. But let that be.
It should have been the subject of serious confidential discussions at the highest levels. Then only would have been the next constructive step. Of creating a mechanism for an "Action Taken report" (which I've explained in another thread). Then can you hope to see something really worth-while happening.
Does the "Cultural Atmosphere" for that exist?

 

[Jango]

The expression "trust-deficit" is used very often around us (even in the Report). Why is there a long-running "trust-deficit" between the Military and the Civilians? To cause such a huge schism. Which seems to bigger than any sectarian divide. That is at the core of the problems of Policy and Executive failures that have been exposed by the report

Maybe just a result of the massive **** ups of the previous 65 years.

The last 5 years, even though they were fraught with corruption and all sort of malpractices, were a big step forward in terms of democracy and reducing the military-civilian 'animosity'.

Abount constructive/remedial action. The first thing is circulation of the Report at least within the portals of Govt. That it has been spilled into the Public Domain is accidental, but in hind-sight may prove to be boon. But let that be.
It should have been the subject of serious confidential discussions at the highest levels. Then only would have been the next constructive step. Of creating a mechanism for an "Action Taken report" (which I've explained in another thread). Then can you hope to see something really worth-while happening.
Does the "Cultural Atmosphere" for that exist?

I am sure alot of folks within the upper echelons would have read and analyzed this report, if not, then that would be even more criminal than the OBL raid.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

However; @nuclearpak, the Commission Report also looks at the sheer lack /or absence of coordinated policy and decision making at the highest levels; which is actually a more critically important issue than even the Intelligence failure(s).

@nuclearpak, please vet this post.

thats what was found out by Americans where NSA, FBI, CIA etc were accused of running parallel and in competition and deliberately withholding information from each other after the 911 attacks.

organisations build up the human traits and their over ambitious and powerful bosses lose the national site and become self obsessed morons in Pakistan most of the agencies exist only on papers and whatever is left they spend time in protecting VVIPs or checking what did the political opponents had for dinner.

 

[notorious_eagle]

Many would argue otherwise...

Well those many who argue are wrong, and they stick to the same old fallacies that have been proven wrong over and over again.

that Military/ISI never gave the Federal Government enough time to mature and start improving,

They had enough time, they had last 5 years and they did not even initiate a single worthwhile initiative. The PPP Government was happy to keep the 'Status Quo' so they could fill their own pockets. They lived by the Motto "Khud bhe khao aur humay bhe khilao".

constantly interfered,

False, at no point did the Army interfered in Domestic matters. In fact, the Army Chief on several occasions encouraged the Civilian Government to initiate reforms to improve Governance and the Economy. The Army in fact offered to train Police and other Civilian Agencies in the hope of improving their performance and implementing some discipline in these institutions. The Army redirected CSF funds to the Government that it was entitled to in hope that the money was actually spent on the people, instead of the politicians.

took the biggest chunks of budget,

Wrong, again a fallacy. 16% of the budget is hardly the biggest chunk. The sheer money wasted in the budget on Unproductive Assets and Activities far outweigh the money the Army is allocated.

curtailed their powers and lastly - intervened every few years with Marshal Law.

The Army only stepped in when the Civilian Government was on the verge of collapse. For Example, in 1999, the State was on the verge of total collapse.

 

[Slav Defence]

Here are some important points which I have noted to discuss.This report is an excellent
analysis as it highlights the weak spots of our infrastructure of various sectors.
Mainly,there was a common impression in my mind before reading that
due to security lapse and weakness of our intelligence sectors,only this incident took place.
Only our law and enforcement agencies were observed guilty or responsible.
but the events highlighted above also raise questions about those sectors which are given under
the authority of civil regime.


Page No 56:
Chapter 5:Residents of kala Dhaka/Tor ghar

Abdul Munaf,resident of Kandar,Hassanzai on September 29th,2011.He was reported
to have born eyewitness to the landing to two US.helicopters on the night of May1 and 2
However he denied being an eyewitness to the commission to Abbottabad where he admitted
to having walked toward the helicopters which had apparently landed on an area
near his corps.He tired to greet the Americans thinking they were Pakistanis.He
was surrounded by them and tied up,and was later released .It was not clear whether he was
released as the helicopters towards Abbottabad or back towards Jalabad.Most likely,
he was kept tied up and under guard for the duration of Operation.

COMMISSION'S OBSERVATION:

He first told the commission that he saw nothing of the helicopters that landed near his field.
ter on summoned to Abbottabad,he went back on his story and admitted he was detained by US
Navy SEALS. there was no proper explanation for his lying to the commission on the first occasion
other then he felt pressurized to do so,by whom?There may,however be perfectly innocent explanation that
he was too embarrassed to admit to being tied up by the Americans

These reasons also seems possible to me:

--If you read the initial of the report,you will find out that during operation,they harrassed
women saying:"We will come back after 2 hours" so that they remain still inside..
So,this is also a possiblity that witness was harrassed as well and was told
to keep his mouth shut.



Where as following points are also highlighted from commission report:

--If XEN Operations have notice the use,and must have reported our Law agencies about
this excessive usage then possible measures maybe taken.But due to his negligence,
we were unable to detect any unusual attitude.

--Although,according to the director,who met commission on September 2011 said that Land
cannot be given to any foreigner,however a Pakistani has full right to buy it.THe explanation he gave
that OBL Compound was brought by the name of Pakistani Muhammad Arshad in the name of Abrar and after this
incident,when investigation takeplace the IDS were found stolen or fake.
This clearly questions that why Mr Abrar was not investigated before handling the property?

To avoid this in future I suggest:

--Buyer must be verified completely before handling a property in such area.
--His ID's must be checked by Nadra..
--If records are not found,then he must be reported to intelligence agencies.
--As mentioned in Page 61,65,102 the director was not eligible to take charge.Then how he
was given such an important vacancy??This clearly questions the selection system.
If an eligible man was given a seat rather then retired brigadier with poor knowledge then
such ignorance does not take place.


As point no 103 clearly admits:

-According to the director"ten years of bad rule in the department has destroyed it"
A non-professional retired brigadier who knew very little about the job,a/c to him
was appointed head of the department.No action was taken against CEO.An inquiry into the
to the matter is now initiated.

@Aeronaut @WebMaster

 

[Argus Panoptes]

.......

False, at no point did the Army interfered in Domestic matters. In fact, the Army Chief on several occasions encouraged the Civilian Government to initiate reforms to improve Governance and the Economy. The Army in fact offered to train Police and other Civilian Agencies in the hope of improving their performance and implementing some discipline in these institutions. The Army redirected CSF funds to the Government that it was entitled to in hope that the money was actually spent on the people, instead of the politicians. ..........

That is false Sir. All that CSF money was given to the Army later. All of it.
@nuclearpak @Aeronaut Please approve this post.

 

[notorious_eagle]

That is false Sir. All that CSF money was given to the Army later. All of it.
@nuclearpak @Aeronaut Please approve this post.

When did that happen?

Pakistan army calls for diversion of U.S aid for economic uplift

Pakistan army calls for diversion of U.S aid for economic uplift | Reuters

 

[Kompromat]

Pakistan's long war has begun.



May 7, 2011


For Pakistanis, this is not time to feel embarrassed and to hang heads in shame over the simplicity and quickness of the operation that killed Osama Bin Laden. It is rather, a time for a long overdue bugle cry that Pakistan is at War. 1/5 was not Pakistan’s Day inasmuch as 9/11 exposed the vulnerabilities in USA’s homeland security.

Writing in Nation in December 2009, I had assessed the next eighteen months and beyond as crucial for Pakistan and reiterated it in my article ‘Pakistan Must Reassert Itself’ on 20 February. I had written, ‘the next 18 months and beyond will test Pakistan to the verge”.

Between the 14th and 17th months we have witnessed the Raymond Davis Case, a drone attack on a peaceful jirga, a fully fledged conventional multi directional night attack on a border outpost in Dir, a border skirmish at Anghoor Adda and now the operation to kill Osama Bin laden.

Writing earlier in Nation in November 2010, ‘Pakistan a Rudderless State’ I had cautioned the security planners of Pakistan to beware of Cold Start Type operations from across the Durand Line. I had also written about the heavily fortified US and ISAF citadels in Afghanistan that would be used as pivots of such operations against Pakistan. No one in Pakistan’s security establishment and the media took notice of the warnings.

2009-2010 had been remarkable years of Pakistan’s fight against militancy. During this time, joint intelligence operations led by Pakistani had resulted in elimination of numerous prized targets both from TTP and Al Qaida. The efficiency of information gathering was such that many high value targets deemed missing believed killed had been brought back into focus and neutralised, some amongst them US nationals. But by mid 2010, this cooperation began to wane due to the direct influx of CIA agents into Pakistan. This influx was not part of the working agreements between ISI and CIA. Pakistan’s security establishment felt that they were being stabbed in the back.

Counter security efforts on part of Pakistan identified hundreds of locations in Pakistan in which US agents had located inside Pakistan covertly. Some of these locations were heavily fortified and the activities inside them were always dubious. After much rallying, Pakistan was able to force the closure of some of these locations but not all. Meanwhile, the network of CIA’s local informers was spreading, a reason why CIA forced budgetary reallocation for its operations in Pakistan. With huge funds to play around, CIA could now buy off anyone including Al Qaida agents whose data Pakistan had shared with USA. They put tags on many such targets and monitored all their movements and places of visit. Consequently, what they have been able to track with their superior technical resources and heavy monetary disbursements is a trail of redoubts within Pakistan where militants have contacts and hiding places. Then came the Raymond Davis shooting and some issues became public.

There is definitely a trove of very important information that USA has extracted from shared sources and double crossing. One such is the hideout of Osama Bin Laden, his courier trails and much more. The biggest vulnerability that Pakistan faces is that some of its own assets within this Al Qaida trail may have been exposed, or double crossed and could be used to blackmail Pakistan into coercion.

With all this information coming from electronic chatter, media and social websites, I was able to piece a MOST DANGEROUS HYPOTHESES that predicted covert sting and intelligence and overt JSOC operations inside Pakistan that subsequently became the theme of my articles on the subject. Having been vindicated, this does not end here.

I have followed the information about the Kakul raid on a real timeline with startling conclusions.According to information available on twitter and TV Channels, the explosion and helicopter crash were successively reported before mid night on 1 May 2011.The call to President Zardari came well past midnight implying that it was made much after the operation had been completed. I am also sure that Zardari was told by President Obama to ask PAF not to interfere in the flight path of the US aircrafts.

Concurrently, by the time Pakistan Air Force scrambled, the US troops were well outside Pakistan’s air space. As an operational planner, I am wary of the fact that Pakistan’s surveillance system on the Western Front did not respond. The systems are deployed in layers in multiple redundancies to ensure that some elements of information do manage to beep through. The electronic systems are reinforced with human resources wherein even a section commander in a border post is trained to immediately report a violation/activity in real time. Why such a credible system was forced into passivity should be the subject of an inquiry and a story of the future. Surprisingly, much credible chatter emanated when the US helicopters made the exit.

I am also aware of the safety layers in US military procedures and purely on technical grounds feel that this operation was carried out by at least four or even more helicopters including transport versions, with credible fool proof backups all along. Simply put, the operation had a sizable operational and logistical trail. Already information is available that the operation had ground, intelligence and pathfinder support from US assets very close to the target area.

Does this also imply that there was some sort of complicity by Pakistan to facilitate such an operation? Does this mean that US helicopters did not enter Pakistan’s air space on the day of the raid and were pre positioned for such an operation? However, what can be concluded with accuracy is that CIA agents have penetrated every nook and corner of Pakistan under the eyes of Pakistan’s counter intelligence, a fact that will be vindicated in the near future.

Reaction of Pakistan’s Defence Forces to the raid was slow in coming. Complicity at the cost of such a disgrace appears a bad bargain and unrealistic. The Army and Air Force cannot absolve themselves. The reaction of ISI that will never become public is perhaps that of betrayal by USA. Many of its intelligence assets that it had shared with CIA have now double crossed and as Shaukat Qadir says made Al Qaida richer.

My analysis leads me to conclude that some levels of selective complicity existed, and it is this that combined with pre positioning of US assets inside Pakistan. Foreign aircrafts have operated in Pakistan with impunity during the earthquake in 2005, floods, training missions etc. It is nigh possible that these flights were also used to dump hardware at secret locations that could subsequently become pivots for such operations. Troops for such operations could move into Pakistan under the garb of training, diplomatic staff and travellers coming to Pakistan from USA/ Europe, and local recruitments. Remember that some US soldiers as reported by the media spoke fluent urdu in a Pakistani accent.Then there is also the much hyped issue of CIA contractors in Pakistan. Many of them have since returned but not before completing the ground work for an effective CIA presence in Pakistan all through the Long War.

The retired CGS of GHQ, Lt. Gen (R) Shahid Aziz had once claimed that he himself had reported evidence of US amphibious landing on the Balochistan Coast with the trails leading to interior Balochistan. If these landings indeed took place, where did these forces ultimately go; or where did they dump and move their cargo?...There is also the case of over 22,000 missing containers. Even if a mere hundred of them carried military hardware and knocked down helicopters, where has all the cargo gone and has anyone noticed it. The theory gets credence from a fact that in one of the ambushes, a container had a complete disassembled Blackhawk helicopter of the type used in Kakul.

My hypothesis is that from 2010 onwards, USA had built up a considerable covert military presence in Pakistan facilitated through visas bypassing the standing operating procedures, indiscriminate entry of containers into Pakistan, holding back of scanning equipment to scan these containers and bribes offered by the container operators from Karachi to the Afghan Border. Even the NLC was foxed into this in the name of business. As a military professional, I know that you do not need huge radioactive machines to scan these containers. A good thermal imaging device abundant in Pakistan can do the trick.

It is these reasons that put the Government of Pakistan and the Defence establishment at odds, something like a reverse replay of Kargil. While President Zardari like ever will use the occasion to push the army and ISI back, shore up new alliances to hedge his government, the security establishment may fight back in the name of national Interest. If this happens, it will set a confrontational environment with re alignment of strange bedfellows. As Pakistan will be destabilised further, Obama’s war in Afghanistan would be over and the Long War in Pakistan begun.

As a postscript, I am suspicious of the confusing statements of PAF.

Brig retd Samson Sharaf

PAKISTAN

http://www.opinion-maker.org/2011/05/pakistans-long-war-has-begun/
--------------------------------------------------------------


Author is retired brigadier Samson Sharaf
@Samson.Sharaf

 

[Amaa'n]

I havn't read it all, I am still on Page 211.
Anyway.What I believe is that in order to get the correct answer it is important to ask correct and right Question.

Ever since the report got leaked, I had been wondering why would they leak the report, something that would tarnish the image of not only ISI, Military or Political Leadership but also of the Country, and the People of Pakistan. Why would someone in PM sectt sell its nation's pride for merely 15000$, as with this amount of money one can only buy the post of Sub-Inspector in FIA, or the similar rank in CDA, LDA etc.

And why was this report not made public, as the very first thing on the agenda was this report will be published in both English & Urdu, why did they not do it? if it was military which never wanted the truth out, than they would have lied to the commission in first place, why say it to the panel which is going to publish everything? The statement of Lt.Gen Pasha, where he has clearly acknowledged that ISI was as part of the part as others were. He acknowledged that many innocents have been harmed at the hands of ISI. He acknowledged that it was the result of past military & isi leaders , the country stands at this stage today. He also criticized the incompetency of civilian leadership, with so much incompetency that they lack the skills to formulate a defence policy

The profession I work in involves frequent reporting incidents, accidents, & the near-misses. The purpose of investigating each & every case is not to hold anyone responsible but to learn from mistakes , make sure it does not happen again in future and move on. Work on the recommendations and implement the corrective actions. What common in each of these reports is the commitment from the top. The leadership/ the management should be completely committed towards.

Solution
* as mentioned earlier, we need better co-ordination among the institutes of the country, be it ISI or the DCO office, Revenue or Nadra, . They need to co-ordinate with each other.

* State bank has a system in place where entering NIC number of an individual brings up the details of their bank accounts, same is the case with FBR, is this the case with FIA, IB, too? or do they have similar system in place where they can verify the NIC of a person without contacting nadra?

* community policing, - as the case in UK. or in other words neighbour hood watch. and for god sake get these Police guys Radios, i can see Traffic wardens carrying one, but these police guys wont have it.

* recruit Police Volunteers (yes I know we have them, but they need to be there more frequently) - just as in UK, You will always find volunteers doing neighbour hood policing, They will know whose the bad guy in the area.
@nuclearpak @Aeronaut approval for the post please.

 

[Developereo]

Counter security efforts on part of Pakistan identified hundreds of locations in Pakistan in which US agents had located inside Pakistan covertly.

Lies, all lies.

The writer is obviously a constipated, Islamist conspiracy theorist.

 

[Amaa'n]

Lies, all lies.

The writer is obviously a constipated, Islamist conspiracy theorist.

are you being sarcastic here sir or actually serious? because even Pasha saab in his statement acknowledged that NGOs operating in Pakistan are filled with FI agents, and this is not a hidden truth that US had more like 300 properties rented in Islamabad let alone. RD getting arrested in Lahore, who was coming from a meeting with his asset should tell you they probably had rented properties in LHR too. about karachi, well that is for sure too.

and if you can read the statements of DG FIA, DG IB, DG ISI, you will find them complaining that NGO workers were granted visas on arrival at the airport, so i don't see any FI agent letting go of this opportunity to let go of.
and as i said ago too, one can just walk through those gates at ISB airport upon arrival without getting to FIA counter by merely paying the guard some $$$, i know one person who payed as low as rs. 1500 to the guard and he was allowed to walk free from the exit gate without getting his passport stamped.
@Aeronaut @nuclearpak approval for the post please.

 

[Kompromat]

Lies, all lies.

The writer is obviously a constipated, Islamist conspiracy theorist.

Indeed sir

 

[Kompromat]

"As an operational planner, I am wary of the fact that Pakistan’s surveillance system on the Western Front did not respond. The "systems are deployed in layers in multiple redundancies to ensure that some elements of information do manage to beep through. The electronic systems are reinforced with human resources wherein even a section commander in a border post is trained to immediately report a violation/activity in real time. Why such a credible system was forced into passivity should be the subject of an inquiry and a story of the future."

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/senior...analysis-recommendations-6.html#ixzz2Ym238bPw


Sirji can you elaborate more on this bit please.?
@Samson.Sharaf