A roadmap for BD's trillion-dollar economy

[That Guy]

Bangladesh's goal in ten years is Indonesia

Honestly, it's a good goal to have. BD out of all the nations in South Asia has the highest chances of success in becoming a developed nation.

 

[从八品主簿]

I think 15 years is a realistic target to catch up Indonesia.

For this to happen BD would need to grow it's per capita GDP 3% a year more than Indonesia.

It seems that BD could realistically hit 8% sustained once the current economic difficulties are over while Indonesia should be able to grow at around 5% a year.

Indonesia is likely to seize the wave of electrification and intelligence in the automotive industry, making rapid progress in the automotive and energy industries and becoming a rising star

 

[UKBengali]

Indonesia is likely to seize the wave of electrification and intelligence in the automotive industry, making rapid progress in the automotive and energy industries and becoming a rising star

I think Indonesia is going to do well but probably will peak at high-middle income levels sometime in the 2040s.


It seems to have a stable democratic system but that in itself will hamper its development - growth dropped from 7% per annum average under dictatorship to 5% under democracy.


BD needs to keep its current dictatorship system(elections are rigged and fake anyway) for maybe another 15 years or so to allow the country to get to a high enough level that change to political system does not affect it's ability to reach its full potential to maybe one day to become a fully developed country.


@Indos - Do you agree with my assessment of ultimate level of Indonesian economy?

 

[从八品主簿]

I think Indonesia is going to do well but probably will peak at high-middle income levels sometime in the 2040s.


It seems to have a stable democratic system but that in itself will hamper its development - growth dropped from 7% per annum average under dictatorship to 5% under democracy.


BD needs to keep its current dictatorship system(elections are rigged and fake anyway) for maybe another 15 years or so to allow the country to get to a high enough level that change to political system does not affect it's ability to reach its full potential to maybe one day to become a fully developed country.


@Indos - Do you agree with my assessment of ultimate level of Indonesian economy?

According to your standards, Indonesia is not a 100% high standard so-called democracy

 

[Indos]

I think Indonesia is going to do well but probably will peak at high-middle income levels sometime in the 2040s.


It seems to have a stable democratic system but that in itself will hamper its development - growth dropped from 7% per annum average under dictatorship to 5% under democracy.


BD needs to keep its current dictatorship system(elections are rigged and fake anyway) for maybe another 15 years or so to allow the country to get to a high enough level that change to political system does not affect it's ability to reach its full potential to maybe one day to become a fully developed country.


@Indos - Do you agree with my assessment of ultimate level of Indonesian economy?

After Asian Financial Crisis our economic strategy is changed, we are more focus on economic equality, prudent economic policy (Budget deficit should be below 3 % of GDP), more fund to village, social welfare (universal healthcare), and salaries are easily raised during democracy (labor pressure, vote pressure).

SOE is getting more important with assets is already more than half of GDP (2021). I would say some technology break trough will likely come from SOE and current government also make new SOE which is IBC (Indonesia Battery Corporation) which businesss according to grandplan covers end to end supply chain of EV ecosystem from nickel mining into making EV cars/motorcycles.

We have quite many young entrepreneurs that enter digital economies as well, using their knowledge as basis to tap market needs, so we hear about Gojek, Tokopedia, Bukalapak, and so on.

I think our economic long term growth will likely be around 5-6 %.

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Comparison of more Indonesian prudent economic policy with budget deficit less than 3% of GDP with India economy with high budget deficit to push their economic growth
-----------------------------------------

IMF Latest Projection for Indonesian economy in 2023

Compare to India 2023

https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/IND

INEQUALITY (OECD report)

Asia: the Power of Connections and their Consequences

In our recent book, “The Connections World: The Future of Asia”, published by Cambridge University Press in October 2022, we argue that mutually beneficial links between dynastic business houses and political elites have been important drivers behind Asia’s extraordinary renaissance. Yet, these...

www.ipsnews.net

 

[UKBengali]

@Indos

I would like there to be more trade between BD and Indonesia.

BD should be importing as much coal, foodstuffs and manufactured products like aerospace as possible and exporting garments, home electronics and pharma in return.

Indonesia and down the line BD have/will have large enough domestic markets that trade could run into the 10s of billions of US dollars per year.

This will take decades to reach but the two countries need to start talking about this now.

 

[Indos]

@Indos

I would like there to be more trade between BD and Indonesia.

BD should be importing as much coal, foodstuffs and manufactured products like aerospace as possible and exporting garments, home electronics and pharma in return.

Indonesia and down the line BC have/will have large enough domestic markets that trade could run into the 10s of billions of US dollars per year.

This will take decades to reach but the two countries need to start talking about this now.

That is very likely since we are going to invest more on Belawan and Kuala Tanjung port located near Bangladesh. Sumatra island is also getting more developed with current Trans Sumatra highway project (35 billion USD) and its gas resources.

BD should think about having long term gas contract from our new found gas field (12 tcf) located in Andaman sea. India tries to find one after their hear our finding but no news coming whether they can find it as well in their Andaman side of sea.

-----------------

• Organic growth opportunities progressed
  • UK: Investment decisions taken on Talbot development and Leverett appraisal
  • Indonesia: Significant gas discovery at the Timpan prospect (Andaman II licence) with further drilling planned for 2023 and 2024; plan of development for the Tuna field approved by the Indonesian Government
  • Mexico: Zama development plan being finalised ahead of submission to the Mexican Government

Harbour Energy announces trading and operations update

Harbour Energy has provided an unaudited Trading and Operations update for the year ended 31 December 2022, ahead of announcing its Full Year Results on 9 March 2023. The Company reports increased production of 208 kboepd (2021: 175 kboepd), towards the top end of 200-210 kboepd guidance and...

www.energy-pedia.com

 

[UKBengali]

That is very likely since we are going to invest more on Belawan and Kuala Tanjung port located near Bangladesh. Sumatra island is also getting more developed with current Trans Sumatra highway project (35 billion USD) and its gas resources.

BD should think about having long term gas contract from our new found gas field (12 tcf) located in Andaman sea. India tries to find one after their hear our finding but no news coming whether they can find it as well in their Andaman side of sea.

-----------------

• Organic growth opportunities progressed
  • UK: Investment decisions taken on Talbot development and Leverett appraisal
  • Indonesia: Significant gas discovery at the Timpan prospect (Andaman II licence) with further drilling planned for 2023 and 2024; plan of development for the Tuna field approved by the Indonesian Government
  • Mexico: Zama development plan being finalised ahead of submission to the Mexican Government

Harbour Energy announces trading and operations update

Harbour Energy has provided an unaudited Trading and Operations update for the year ended 31 December 2022, ahead of announcing its Full Year Results on 9 March 2023. The Company reports increased production of 208 kboepd (2021: 175 kboepd), towards the top end of 200-210 kboepd guidance and...

www.energy-pedia.com

Yep, gas can also flow from Indonesia and the cost won't be too much as the distances are not that great.

Indonesia and BD are two of the largest Muslim countries in the world and we are both only interested in economic development with low defence spending.

In time if the trade is similar both ways then we can even mainly use our own currencies rather than the US dollar as an intermediary currency.

 

[Indos]

Yep, gas can also flow from Indonesia and the cost won't be too much as the distances are not that great.

Indonesia and BD are two of the largest Muslim countries in the world and we are both only interested in economic development with low defence spending.

In time if the trade is similar both ways then we can even mainly use our own currencies rather than the US dollar as an intermediary currency.

Indonesian defense spending is not that low, similar with Pakistan, and the biggest in ASEAN after Singapore. We just tried to spend it below 1 % of GDP, so the spending will depend on how much the GDP can grow. The percentage will likely be the same until 2030 but the amount will likely increase since our GDP is projected/predicted to be double in 2030.

We also still have security issue in Papua island and before 2003 we fought 3 insurgency groups (Aceh, East Timor, and Papua).

Indonesia defense spending should follow its economic situation, that is the main thing about our defense spending realization so far. The focus on economy has become the strategy conducted since Soeharto regime, despite under Soeharto we were invading East Timor (1977)

 

[UKBengali]

Indonesian defense spending is not that low, similar with Pakistan, and the biggest in ASEAN after Singapore. We just tried to spend it below 1 % of GDP, so the spending will depend on how much the GDP can grow. The percentage will likely be the same until 2030 but the amount will likely increase since our GDP is projected/predicted to be double in 2030.

We also still have security issue in Papua island and before 2003 we fought 3 insurgency groups (Aceh, East Timor, and Papua).

Indonesia defense spending should follow its economic situation, that is the main thing about our defense spending realization so far. The focus on economy has become the strategy conducted since Soeharto regime, despite under Soeharto we were invading East Timor (1977)

I meant in terms of percentage of GDP.

BD spends around 1.2%-1.3% of GDP and in 10-15 years time the actual amount is going to be quite big. BD needs a lot of money to buy new hardware and so the rapidly increasing defence budget will be able to pay for this.

BD largest trading partner will become India but Indonesia should be 2nd place in time, even ahead of the USA.

 

[从八品主簿]

Indonesian defense spending is not that low, similar with Pakistan, and the biggest in ASEAN after Singapore. We just tried to spend it below 1 % of GDP, so the spending will depend on how much the GDP can grow. The percentage will likely be the same until 2030 but the amount will likely increase since our GDP is projected/predicted to be double in 2030.

We also still have security issue in Papua island and before 2003 we fought 3 insurgency groups (Aceh, East Timor, and Papua).

Indonesia defense spending should follow its economic situation, that is the main thing about our defense spending realization so far. The focus on economy has become the strategy conducted since Soeharto regime, despite under Soeharto we were invading East Timor (1977)

This was possible in the past, but with the geopolitical tensions in Asia, the Asia-Pacific region, especially East Asia, is in an arms race. Japan is trying to break through the shackles of the pacifist constitution and become a military and political power. The defense expenditure budget will also increase by 26% in 2023. Taiwan’s military expenditure It may also account for more than 3% of GDP in accordance with the requirements of the United States, which is also a rapid increase. South Korea is also breaking through the 3% ratio. China estimates that the growth rate may exceed double digits this year. The two sessions will be held immediately. It is estimated that the budget will come out。I don't know whether these situations will affect the situation in Southeast Asia.

 

[Indos]

This was possible in the past, but with the geopolitical tensions in Asia, the Asia-Pacific region, especially East Asia, is in an arms race. Japan is trying to break through the shackles of the pacifist constitution and become a military and political power. The defense expenditure budget will also increase by 26% in 2023. Taiwan’s military expenditure It may also account for more than 3% of GDP in accordance with the requirements of the United States, which is also a rapid increase. South Korea is also breaking through the 3% ratio. China estimates that the growth rate may exceed double digits this year. The two sessions will be held immediately. It is estimated that the budget will come out。I don't know whether these situations will affect the situation in Southeast Asia.

I dont think that new development will bother any SEA countries. SEA regions are more about balancing within our neighborhood.

Talking about SEA region, Indonesia is also less reactive. We, for example, can accept higher defense budget of Australia and Singapore as Indonesia doesnt have any territorial dispute with them.

Indonesia will only see Malaysia defense budget and their acquisition as we still have some unresolved territorial dispute with them, but since Malaysia Navy acquisition program is stalling with their Maharajalela class ( Gowind class ) and they are more focus on economy, Indonesia government gets very comfortable with that situation.

Indonesia itself has its own Minimum Essential Force program set in 2007, that is that become the target. It should be completed in 2024, but it is unlikely to reach the target. We are very likely to extend it until 2034.

The program is more intended as something we need to achieve, having more internal ambition than a reaction of what is happening inside our region, so the pace to reach it will depend on our economy and industry.

Despite so we do have made some acquisition during current administration, like we are likely to acquire at least 24 Rafale ( effective current order is just 6 planes ), 2 Scorpene submarine, 2 Arrowhead Frigates (Manufacturing has been started in PT PAL Indonesia since Desember 2022), refurbishment program of 41 old ships ( on going ), 18 medium tanks, 5 Hercules, 6 TA50 Golden Eagle planes, some Wong Bee planes, and others that are mostly ordered from local industry like 10 N219 planes for Army, 4 CN 235 planes for Army and Navy, etc

 

[Black_cats]

‘Bangladesh on right track to become trillion-dollar economy by 2035’

Published: January 19, 2023 18:16:34

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Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen on Thursday laid emphasis on stronger partnership and collaborations, noting that Bangladesh is moving towards the right direction to become a trillion-dollar economy by 2035.


"We have potential to become an international business and manufacturing hub and it is time we start creating narratives which would allow Bangladesh platforms to become global incubators for innovation and entrepreneurship," he told a luncheon meeting.

Momen said Bangladesh will have to address the challenges and it is important to have stronger partnership and collaborations, reports UNB.

The Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industries (FBCCI) hosted the networking luncheon at a hotel in Dhaka.

FBCCI will be organizing "Bangladesh Business Summit 2023" from March 11-13 to celebrate the 50 years of establishment of this apex trade body.

Commerce Minister Tipu Munshi spoke as a special guest. FBCCI President Md Jashim Uddin, among others, spoke at the event.

Speaking as the chief guest, Momen said Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina followed Bangabandhu's footsteps and established Bangladesh as a "vibrant economy" and a "land of opportunity" today.

In fact, he said, PM Hasina has launched a new vision for today's world - ensuring food, clothing, shelter, education, health services, welfare of the people and right to vote by maintaining friendship, peace and stability with all.

"I call this philosophy "Hasinanomics," Momen said, adding that she introduced four driving forces to achieve Hasinanomics - digital Bangladesh, innovation and creativity development; entrepreneurship and individual Initiative and free market liberal enterprise. As a result, our economy stands on a solid foundation.

The foreign minister said they are working with their best possible calculations to stabilize their production ecosystems and keep trade and investment flowing.

"Bangladesh is doing what the prime minister very correctly described as 'striking a balance between life and livelihood' and making Bangladesh a hub of connectivity, as connectivity is productivity," Momen said.

He remains optimistic that the event will help them reach out to international business communities and uphold their efforts in strengthening their global connections for finding win-win paradigms for the economic prospect of Bangladesh.

Under the leadership of the prime minister, Momen said, Bangladesh has become a middle income country and is making "robust strides" to become a developed one by 2041.

Recent IMF data shows that in terms of nominal GDP, Bangladesh's economy is the 35th largest economy, he said, adding that, "This is a big achievement for us."

‘Bangladesh on right track to become trillion-dollar economy by 2035’

Foreign Minister AK Abdul Momen on Thursday laid emphasis on stronger partnership and collaborations, noting that Bangladesh is moving towards the right direction to become a trillion-dollar economy by 2035. "We have potential to become an international business and manufacturing hub and it is tim

thefinancialexpress.com.bd

 

[UKBengali]

^^^^

Well BD is at 460 billion US dollars in 2022.

Assuming 8% sustained growth rates for the next 10 years which is realistic as the economic expansion will keep it's slow acceleration by 1% a year per decade since the 1980s:

460 x 1.08^10 = 1 trillion US dollars

So by 2032 BD could and will probably hit 1 trillion US dollars at 2022 prices.

 

[Bengal71]

Dude, what's with the negative rating?

What forum rule have I broken?

I suggest for your own sake you apologise and retract it as otherwise this is going to make you look foolish like I did with another "Think Tank Analyst" years ago who had to eat humble pie.

Drop discussion with him.