A NEW AIRCRAFT FOR PAF

[Basel]

Sir, probably it will be Trench 1 and 2 which will be upgraded over the years. This is provided PAF does get them.

TFX is having some delays, fortunately one of the major issue regarding the engine has been solved. After the recent developments it is certain that more intent would be shown in TFX as Turkey is considering lowering the number of F-35's. How ever F-35 was to replace the F-4's and TFX was to replace the F-16's.

This could indicate some delay now but faster production which would benefit in regards to export. The target date would still be the same for the time being.

Now going to the J31, the delivery dates would be 2020-2021 because most of the research that is being done on J-20 is being incorporated on the J-31. There are some rumors that China might also procure the J-31 for the Western and Southern regions and keep the J-20 for Eastern regions.

J-20 is said to be available by 2019-2020.


Trench 1 still remains a Air Defence Fighter.
Upgrade it to trench 2 then it is a decent ground attack aircraft.
Trench 3 is going to be a true Multi Role fighter.


The MLU KIT is not available. Also there are issues with spares hence to keep RAF EFT serviceable 4 aircraft were scraped. Now after Brixit it looks even more difficult. It will be seen how the divorce goes...

IMO EU would still keep existing contracts & treaties,and the British Courts would continue to enforce the. However British Parliament would have her Supremacy once again and European Parliament would have a limited role of having various new agreements and treaties.

You mean EFT trench-1 on user can't upgrade it to trench 2 or 3 level and same for trench 2?

 

[ACE OF THE AIR]

You mean EFT trench-1 on user can't upgrade it to trench 2 or 3 level and same for trench 2?

This is reported in the news link mentioned above and re-posted

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/raf-butchers-four-typhoon-jets-6963359

1) "Four jets, costing £125million each, are being cannibalised to cover a desperate shortage of key kit."

2) “Four Typhoon aircraft held in the sustainment fleet are currently being used as donor aircraft and consequently are unable to fly.”

3) “The department relies on a small group of key industrial suppliers who have the technical and design capability to build, upgrade and support Typhoon,” the committee said in 2011.

4) “Problems with the availability of spare parts have meant that Typhoons are not flying as many hours as the department requires.

5)“The Typhoon supply chain is complex and stretches across Europe. However, the department admitted that it had not been managed well enough or delivered all the required parts when needed.”

6)"The Ministry of Defence (MoD) suggested four years ago that stripping Typhoons - built under a deal between the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany - for spares would end by 2015."

 

[CHI RULES]

This is reported in the news link mentioned above and re-posted

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/raf-butchers-four-typhoon-jets-6963359

1) "Four jets, costing £125million each, are being cannibalised to cover a desperate shortage of key kit."

2) “Four Typhoon aircraft held in the sustainment fleet are currently being used as donor aircraft and consequently are unable to fly.”

3) “The department relies on a small group of key industrial suppliers who have the technical and design capability to build, upgrade and support Typhoon,” the committee said in 2011.

4) “Problems with the availability of spare parts have meant that Typhoons are not flying as many hours as the department requires.

5)“The Typhoon supply chain is complex and stretches across Europe. However, the department admitted that it had not been managed well enough or delivered all the required parts when needed.”

6)"The Ministry of Defence (MoD) suggested four years ago that stripping Typhoons - built under a deal between the UK, Spain, Italy and Germany - for spares would end by 2015."

What is your choice for new jet if not Euro fighter, except Su35 and J10C.

By the way despite spares problems if Iranians can keep their 70s era fighters operational till now or PAF did in case of Mirages the honestly we have more chance with EFTs.

 

[CriticalThought]

Hi Guys. The following is the result of fantasies at 4:19 A.M. here in Australia. Since I am dreaming all of this up, I invite all fellow Pakistani guys to criticize everything I say.

So, it looks like Britain is facing much problems maintaining its aircraft after Brexit. In this backdrop, we find that British companies are keen on working with Turkey on TFX in general, but especially further R&D on EJ200. We also find that many countries are willing to scrap their EFTs.

This backdrop creates an interesting opportunity for Pakistan. We buy the EFTs being retired by various airforces at low cost, and cannibalize them for the EJ-200. We then use these in an upgraded airframe for JF-17 Block 3 (call it whatever name, I am not too fussed) while keeping the rest exactly the same as today. Such aircrafts will be excellent candidates for later upgrades with AESA radars, IRST, etc. etc. all the goodies. Meanwhile, since Turkey will be acquiring complete knowledge about the EJ-200, overhauling/maintenance should not be a problem for us.

Comments please. @Bilal Khan (Quwa) other seniors as well (sorry I am new so don't know many seniors by name).

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Hi Guys. The following is the result of fantasies at 4:19 A.M. here in Australia. Since I am dreaming all of this up, I invite all fellow Pakistani guys to criticize everything I say.

So, it looks like Britain is facing much problems maintaining its aircraft after Brexit. In this backdrop, we find that British companies are keen on working with Turkey on TFX in general, but especially further R&D on EJ200. We also find that many countries are willing to scrap their EFTs.

This backdrop creates an interesting opportunity for Pakistan. We buy the EFTs being retired by various airforces at low cost, and cannibalize them for the EJ-200. We then use these in an upgraded airframe for JF-17 Block 3 (call it whatever name, I am not too fussed) while keeping the rest exactly the same as today. Such aircrafts will be excellent candidates for later upgrades with AESA radars, IRST, etc. etc. all the goodies. Meanwhile, since Turkey will be acquiring complete knowledge about the EJ-200, overhauling/maintenance should not be a problem for us.

Comments please. @Bilal Khan (Quwa) other seniors as well (sorry I am new so don't know many seniors by name).

In light of political uncertainty, each of the Typhoon partners has an incentive to keep their respective manufacturing lines open and active. So if Pakistan is indeed interested in the Typhoon, I don't see a scenario where the PAF would even be allowed to buy used aircraft without spending on new planes, especially if one or two of the Typhoon partners extend loans or credit (which is what we'll probably need) to Pakistan to kick-start the purchase.

Kuwait agreed to purchase 28 new-built Typhoons for $9 billion U.S. - i.e. $321 million a unit. To be fair this package includes the aircraft as well as a "comprehensive" training and support package. Let's assume we cut out some of it (e.. strike element) and bring it down to $250m a unit.

Based on that, a PAF purchase of 40 aircraft (as per Haris Khan on PakDef AHQ wants 40 planes) would cost $10 billion. Let's assume that 50% of that is the support package (i.e. spare parts, maintenance coverage, training, etc). It may be possible to absorb 30-40% of that into the PAF's annual operational budget (e.g. spare parts purchases).

For munitions and fighters, Pakistan is still on the direct hook for $6-7bn in terms of a direct purchase. A 10-year financing agreement would put us on the hook for $600-700m a year - i.e. a lot.

An alternative scenario would be to purchase 18 new-built Typhoons (at $250m a unit) and 22 surplus/used Typhoons (at $100m a unit including spare parts and support).

In that case, the total acquisition package (fighters + support) could be $7bn. Let's say the PAF can absorb 40% of that via its operational budget (i.e. for maintenance and logistics), the hook would be $4.2bn. A 10-year financing term would man spending $420m a year, which - while a lot - could be manageable.

 

[Avicenna]

Hi guys. Long time follower. I finally decided to join to post comments. Anyways just wanted to comment that it's becoming clear India is in a different league with respect to military procurement. Alliances are shifting in the world and muslim nations are being left behind because of inept leadership. With respect to Pakistan Air Force, she should forget about any meaningful alliance with the US. Since defense procurements have a strong element of diplomatic meaning, I don't expect American platforms to be available for Pakistan Air Force in a reliable manner. The US has chosen India. I hate to say it but in order to not fall too much behind, the PAF needs to think strategically as well as about its tactical needs. Of course, I am sure they are more aware of the situation than any of us. My suggestion would be to obtain the eurofighter. Whether used example of tranche 1 from Italy or Spain. Or a mixed new batch and used as bilal has stated. The reason being the tfx and Fc-31 are years away. Furthermore they are unknown quantities. Better to hedge bets and do a split buy of a proven western platform I.e. Eurofighter as well work on a 5th generation platform.

 

[ACE OF THE AIR]

What is your choice for new jet if not Euro fighter, except Su35 and J10C.

By the way despite spares problems if Iranians can keep their 70s era fighters operational till now or PAF did in case of Mirages the honestly we have more chance with EFTs.

Sir,
This is what is being reported over the last few days in various news papers of NATO countries as well as some other European or neighboring countries.

1) Military exercises are going along NATO member states and Russia, reacting to these with number of intercepts reported.
2) Many NATO members are receiving their F-35's as replacement for the F-16's.
3) Many other countries are looking for a suitable replacement aircraft for their F-18's.
4) Some countries that are not financially strong are considering to replace their F-18's as well as EFT's for some affordable aircraft.
5) F-16's are also being looked as replacement by some countries keeping alive hopes for USA to continue production or through some European county.
6) Germany to increase defence spending to 2% as per NATO Treaty requirement.
7) European Parliament is also considering forming a joint European Armed Forces.
8) Brixit causing doubts regarding most of the combined projects in various fields.

Now considering these and that no European country has so far considered making a Fifth Gen aircraft does put many in this debate to what would happen if war brakes out between Europe and Russia over Syria. Recently Russia warned the US that it would shoot down all aircraft if they do not stop targeting Syrian Armed forces loyal to Assad.. This was followed by British PM's statement to soot down Russian aircraft that are considered threatening.


With all this interesting times lie ahead. The chances of the European countries that are unable to stable their economy would try to sell what they produce,i.e Spain and Italy can sell their existing JFT and also offer new aircraft with additional requirement to produce and assemble it at one place.Or on the other hand procure the Gripen with EJ-200 engine to build additional numbers funded by the EU member states.

This would provide enough financial support to SAAB to fast track any 5th gen program with help from USA. Or enter into a partnership with Turkey on the TFX. The only problem is that this might require EU to allow Turkish citizens free travel (something that would make their case stronger for EU) which they can not afford at this time when Anti-Muslim sentiment is on the rise.

Now to answer your question regarding my choice would be to somehow procure the Euro get engines and ECM/EW & Salex Radar for JF-17 Blk 3. By the time IAF gets the delivery of Rafales PAF would have a suitable low cost platform. PAF should also consider increasing the cap of 50 aircraft per block to 100 - 150 aircraft from block 3 on-wards.

The procurement of JF-17 block 3 in higher numbers would also allow PAF to procure J-31's or J-20(if allowed).

How Iran or Pakistan continue to maintain their old aircraft?
Both countries procured aircraft that were made in large numbers. If we consider mirage 3 and 5 then they were built in thousands. Same is the case of F-16's, they are still being manufactured.

Iran's procurement of F-14's was a mistake by the Shah as per many annalists. If the shah would have been visor and procured the F-15 then till date there would have been no issues. F-4 and F-5 were built in thousands so Iran has no problem in procuring their spares. The Iranian defence industry also started to manufacture the parts locally some with permission and some without..

 

[Asifkamal]

I want to say something different tonight. It was PAF plane to get 111 F16 by the end of 1996. It was keeping the air force up to date. This is end of 2016 and we have 78 F16. Means we are 20 years late. What we should,'ve or rather must have done was to procure 32 Mirage 2000 in 1990,s . We could,t and what was essential in 2006 F16 order was to get at least 55 new F16 . We missed that chance due to Musharraf. We also failed to order Rafale or Griooen( which was air force first choice). Now we are far behind in technology and numbers. As I,be mentioned, at least 20 years. Still it seems we are not serious. What was dire need , to get letters radar and avionics and BVR for jf17 from day first... We produced 50 aircrafts with no targeting pods, no BVR and then turned to China and still looking for targeting pod.. We decided to purchase j10 from China as Musharraf wanted it and then air force rejected it. No alternative?? In 1998 India started indicting SU30 and now more than 230 . We should have responded from then. Now since one year sometime we hear about SU35, sometime used mirage 2000 , now eurofighter??? Seems we are confused now

 

[Asifkamal]

Still I insist on j10

 

[Lavrentiy]

The PAF only needs to concentrate on the JF-17 including its entire supply chain. You can't think of high end products when your home is littered with Mirage 3, 5 and F-7 junk. Replace this junk with JF-17 before thinking of anything else.

A top-end 4.5th generation fighter and a 5th generation fighter is a pipe dream for at least a decade. We can only seriously start thinking about a high tech platform by 2025.

Parity with India doesn't really matter in the presence of Mutually Assured Destruction. At most, there could be border skirmishes for which we don't need top-end fighters.

 

[mingle]

PAF needs third type &a I hope it won't be China we need a new vendor Russian or European otherwise PAF going to be Mini PLAF

 

[Avicenna]

I advocate for small amounts of the eurofighter for a few reasons.

1)it is a European platform I.e. Not Chinese or American which is diversification of sources.

2)ability to acquire meteor bvr missile.

3)acquire ej200 which hopefully will be the power plant for the TFX.

4) finally Pakistani eurofighters will allow commonality with Saudi Air Force. Saudis have 72 under contract with perhaps a further 48. I hope the Pakistanis can convince Saudi about the value of financial help for PAF to obtain eurofighter by selling the prospect of Pakistani pilots for their Air Force.

The 4th point maybe overly optimistic regarding Arab help for PAF however muslim leadership needs to be aware of current realities in the world I.e. US Israel India alliance or at the very least oppression of Muslim nations by political and military means. Bilal Khan Quwa thoughts?

 

[Humble Analyst]

The PAF only needs to concentrate on the JF-17 including its entire supply chain. You can't think of high end products when your home is littered with Mirage 3, 5 and F-7 junk. Replace this junk with JF-17 before thinking of anything else.

A top-end 4.5th generation fighter and a 5th generation fighter is a pipe dream for at least a decade. We can only seriously start thinking about a high tech platform by 2025.

Parity with India doesn't really matter in the presence of Mutually Assured Destruction. At most, there could be border skirmishes for which we don't need top-end fighters.

Do not agree, as disparity in conventional balance is recipe and invitation for limited war escalating into something bigger.

I want to say something different tonight. It was PAF plane to get 111 F16 by the end of 1996. It was keeping the air force up to date. This is end of 2016 and we have 78 F16. Means we are 20 years late. What we should,'ve or rather must have done was to procure 32 Mirage 2000 in 1990,s . We could,t and what was essential in 2006 F16 order was to get at least 55 new F16 . We missed that chance due to Musharraf. We also failed to order Rafale or Gripen( which was air force first choice). Now we are far behind in technology and numbers. As I, mentioned, at least 20 years. Still it seems we are not serious. What was dire need , to get letters radar and avionics and BVR for jf17 from day first... We produced 50 aircrafts with no targeting pods, no BVR and then turned to China and still looking for targeting pod.. We decided to purchase j10 from China as Musharraf wanted it and then air force rejected it. No alternative?? In 1998 India started indicting SU30 and now more than 230 . We should have responded from then. Now since one year sometime we hear about SU35, sometime used mirage 2000 , now eurofighter??? Seems we are confused now

Very good simple analysis, now INDIA USA partnering to manufacture F16 Block 70/72 in India what will we do?

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Regarding the Typhoon. If the PAF is of the view that there is a possibility to procure the platform (especially second-hand Italian and Spanish units), it will try to make a move. However, we need to come to terms with the fact that while we could 'ask' for it (just as we had asked for Russian fighters recently), we can only move forward once there is a positive response. Although the PAF itself would want a level of discreteness with such a transaction, the industry wire (especially in Western Europe) will let us know of any activity heading in our direction.

 

[ziaulislam]

Regarding the Typhoon. If the PAF is of the view that there is a possibility to procure the platform (especially second-hand Italian and Spanish units), it will try to make a move. However, we need to come to terms with the fact that while we could 'ask' for it (just as we had asked for Russian fighters recently), we can only move forward once there is a positive response. Although the PAF itself would want a level of discreteness with such a transaction, the industry wire (especially in Western Europe) will let us know of any activity heading in our direction.

i would rather want PAF to make sure it gets a good deal on block 3 really makes it an aircraft comparable to gripen