2018 Election prediction

[Kambojaric]

PML are strong favourites due to the Punjab factor.

PPP have destroyed their support base in Punjab after the demise of Benazir and emergence of Bill/Mr 10%, and PTI has support mostly amongst the educated upper middle and elite urban classes but given the rural nature of the province, the rural populace and lower middle class urban vote will go to PML. Together these two groups form the majority in Punjab.

Sindh will be won by PPP cuz Bhutto abhi bhi zinda hae wahan.

Karachi will be interesting with the emergence of PTI and mustafa kamals party but MQM should still dominate.

Baluchistan will be a mish mash of local baloch parties allied with PML, with Achakzai gaining the Pashtun vote.

KPK might see a resurgence of ANP, but PTI should be able to retain the province, with PML enjoying strong support in the Hazara region.

 

[notorious_eagle]

Unfortunately people don't agree with you and plmn is winning every where fro Punjab to kpk , from Gilgit baltitan to balochistan.
And IK has lost all by elections and local bodies and cantonments.

Ummmm, clearly you're not aware of how Pakistan's Political System works.

PPP was winning by elections back to back between 2008 and 2013. They won 90% of the by elections in Punjab although PML-N held the Provincial Government. Gilgit and Azad Kashmir both had PPP backed Government, although PPP was an extremely unpopular Governemnt. Government backed candidates never loose, especially if its a local body election. The use of Police, Patwari and other Government Agencies are the Ace in the Hole for the Government backed candidate to win. Same happened during Musharraf era when PML-Q won practically every by election and local body elections. Unless the Opposition can field an extremely strong candidate such as JKT, sitting Government winning a by election is not a big deal. The use of State Machinery by the Government candidate ensures his win.

The just missed the economic targets, poverty is increasing, buying fruits is a luxury with apples at 250 rupees per kg, farmers are on the verge of extinction, debt at an all time high, corruption is at its peak, none of the civilian institutions work. Thus, with all these massive problems i fail to see how PML-N will win the next election. Nawaz Sharif has been exposed as a corrupt leader after Panama Leaks and the Governance has been horrendous to say the least.

 

[BRAVO_]

frankly i dont believe the form of Pakistani democracy where majority of people even dont cost their votes for instance Pakistan has a population of 194 million out of which 14.8 million people voted PMLn (fake votes are also included in the above value) it mean 19 out of 20 people did;t voted the current govt but yet they have to bear the corrupter. this is the soul reason when military ousted the political govt no body comes in street in support of political parties in Nawaz previous term when he was removed from power did anybody observed any protest?

Pakistani politics is very much candidational politics. back in Musharaf era if you take a look most of people were in PMLq (formed by Musharaf) yet they are in current assembly as well and many of them are in PMLn the day wind will blow against PMLn these people will quit the party as they did in past since they are not in PMLn for the love of nawaz, they are power hungry and they take care their personal interests rather than national. so this is the system where only parties name changed but same people will remain in power under some other party's banner.

i believe there must be some sort of a legislation that if there is a less than 50% voter turn out in any constituency. those election should be considered as null and void coz majority has rejected all politicians of that specif area and that areas should be given under administration of commissioners or may be technocrats.

what is this democracy where majority is silent and minatory is ruling?

 

[Jungibaaz]

What does everyone here think of Pakistan's First Past the Post style electoral system for NA based on constituencies? Generally speaking, a system like this works well only to correctly identify of two national political parties which has the greater support, a third and fourth party with national support makes the system less representative, and provincial based voting patterns also mess with the FPTP system.

I want to know what members think... I know we have more pressing issues to deal with, and the electoral system only skews actual representation, we've got far more rife corruption and mismanagement dealing more damage.

Edit: PTI supporters in general ought to really consider this, I know people talk about other issues, but mathematically speaking, this system skews the results even with a totally free and fair election. PTI is probably one of those parties that will continue to suffer most under it.

 

[aamerjamal]

What does everyone here think of Pakistan's First Past the Post style electoral system for NA based on constituencies? Generally speaking, a system like this works well only to correctly identify of two national political parties which has the greater support, a third and fourth party with national support makes the system less representative, and provincial based voting patterns also mess with the FPTP system.

I want to know what members think... I know we have more pressing issues to deal with, and the electoral system only skews actual representation, we've got far more rife corruption and mismanagement dealing more damage.

Edit: PTI supporters in general ought to really consider this, I know people talk about other issues, but mathematically speaking, this system skews the results even with a totally free and fair election. PTI is probably one of those parties that will continue to suffer most under it.

PTI will Suffer in any system. Reason?
people Votes based on performance not on ' Mounh k Fire'.

 

[notorious_eagle]

PTI will Suffer in any system. Reason?
people Votes based on performance not on ' Mounh k Fire'.

Indeed. That's why PPP is governing Sindh and PML-N despite horrible performance is governing Punjab.

 

[Jungibaaz]

PTI will Suffer in any system. Reason?
people Votes based on performance not on ' Mounh k Fire'.

That's not relevant to which electoral system suits Pakistan the best, it just so happens that PTI loses more than other parties in the current system.

 

[mingle]

Its 2016 and dumb patwaris running 2018 election wow nodout panama papers leaked pajama of NS another diversion tactis by patwari league .

Indeed. That's why PPP is governing Sindh and PML-N despite horrible performance is governing Punjab.

Yaar 2018 is pretty far now patwaris changing topic they leaking every where .If free and fair election happen i meant free and fair Patwari league will win not more than 30 seats and they will loose in lahore as well .they won last time in punjab thanks to najomi sethi Gen kiyani and Kana ifthekhar ch .
Khan is next PM no dout in my mind era of sharif theft is over in 2016 .

 

[singlefighter]

I think PML N will win the next election even if the pti dream of putting nawaz out of election ,still PML N will win and more seats than the previous elections why reasons are these
1 main problem elctricity shortage, at this time more then 12000 megawatts power plants are under construction these are on hydro, coal fire ,nuclear ,wind , solar and some LNG thermal power houses.if u check there completion dates most of them will start their power in end of 2017 or start of 2018 it means no power shortage in that time of election.
2. Economy is back on track and day by day energy crisis endes the economy will be better it means new job will b created.
3. Terrorism is big problem and on going operations will break the strings of terror organizations it mean at 2018 Pakistan will be more safe and peace full.
4.ongoing infrastructure projects like CPEC and other local large scale projects will b complete before 2018 elections .like mutan faisalabad motorway, multan sukker motorway, karachi Hyderabad motorway ,gawadar ratu dero motorway ,quetta qila saifullah highway hazara expressway and many more other will be completed in end of 2017 and start of 2018 .
So govt will cut the ribbons and start the campaign of elections with mega projects completed common man will feel excited and govt will get moree seats than the previous term either nawaz sharif will be a part of elections or not but imran khan will not able to catch the attractions any more .thats my point of view any one can disagree but u will all see that untill the war will broke out or some military intervene can only stop it

 

[mingle]

Suddenly this forum is flooded by new IDs new patwari recruits .

 

[notorious_eagle]

Suddenly this forum is flooded by new IDs new patwari recruits .

Do you see the correlation here. Media Cell

 

[Zahoor Raja-Jani]

I am not a supporter os any party but it seems that butt baazi maar leyn gey phair...

 

[The Sword Of Allah]

What does everyone here think of Pakistan's First Past the Post style electoral system for NA based on constituencies? Generally speaking, a system like this works well only to correctly identify of two national political parties which has the greater support, a third and fourth party with national support makes the system less representative, and provincial based voting patterns also mess with the FPTP system.

I want to know what members think... I know we have more pressing issues to deal with, and the electoral system only skews actual representation, we've got far more rife corruption and mismanagement dealing more damage.

Edit: PTI supporters in general ought to really consider this, I know people talk about other issues, but mathematically speaking, this system skews the results even with a totally free and fair election. PTI is probably one of those parties that will continue to suffer most under it.

Oi can you fix my name

 

[mingle]

Do you see the correlation here. Media Cell

Yeh absolutly too many ID of new recruits all patwaris .

I am not a supporter os any party but it seems that butt baazi maar leyn gey phair...

Lag pata gye Ga puncture her defa nahi lagtay na Gen kiyani is cheif nor kana is judge .2018 Honuz deli dor ast .NS not gonna survive this panama leaks .

 

[Danish saleem]

Why are you so obsessed with IK? seriously, do you like touch yourself at night to his picture? I doubt you have a wife but if you did, would you be calling out IK's name at night?

You didn't answer my question, should the next elections be done with bio metric voting ?

bro, the words u use in your reply telling how a leader effected brains of a common man, your post telling how much u love ur leader!

Suddenly this forum is flooded by new IDs new patwari recruits .

bro, not say any thing to any one, u r PTI follower, which is enough to proof how much biggest fool u r!