10 Reasons Not To Worry about Six Chinese Carriers

[Chanakyaa]

What is technology. Its not something directly proportional to time spent on it. China was no where in picture when USA had computer. Now, China made a super-computer. They are following quick. Sooner, they will have the ability to match USN.

As Gambit said they can match numbers, but can they match the qualitative edge US enjoys?
No. Atleast in near future of 25 Years.

Why?

Can They Make Ohio Class Subs?
Can They Make Nimitz Class ACCs ? and Maintain Them ?
Can they Make F22 when they have just equaled F16 [ J10 ] that too is yet to be verified, which is Now abondoned by US ?

The Answer "they have done a lot and will do it very soon in future" is very optimistic and can be applied to any country even India and Pakistan but its miles away frm reality.

China has Money. Gr8 Economy and they are developing really fast but You cant really "Buy" technology you have to "Develop" it. and Development of Such Supreme Military Hardware takes Years.

Has the World including Russia even equaled US some 20 Years Back ?
NO.
No other country can at the moement even dream of a Nimitz.
This tells every thing abt "Matching" .

They can match and even surpass but It will take time 25-50 Years.

 

[TechLahore]

As Gambit said they can match numbers, but can they match the qualitative edge US enjoys?
No. Atleast in near future of 25 Years.

Why?

Can They Make Ohio Class Subs?
Can They Make Nimitz Class ACCs ? and Maintain Them ?
Can they Make F22 when they have just equaled F16 [ J10 ] that too is yet to be verified, which is Now abondoned by US ?

The Answer "they have done a lot and will do it very soon in future" is very optimistic and can be applied to any country even India and Pakistan but its miles away frm reality.

China has Money. Gr8 Economy and they are developing really fast but You cant really "Buy" technology you have to "Develop" it. and Development of Such Supreme Military Hardware takes Years.

Has the World including Russia even equaled US some 20 Years Back ?
NO.
No other country can at the moement even dream of a Nimitz.
This tells every thing abt "Matching" .

They can match and even surpass but It will take time 25-50 Years.

But in that case the US' extreme concern is justified. 25 years is the blink of an eye in the history of nations. Most of us will be alive to see the passing of the baton from the US to China as the dominant global superpower.

The other thing to keep in mind about the next 2 decades is that the US' ability to respond strategically or to pull a Reagan-era "Outspend the evil empire" strategy will be limited. Considering the tremendous debt the US economy is currently under, directing a lot of money towards strategic (game changing) defence innovation will be limited in the next decade or two. Remember, this is the period during which social security and medicare are both supposedly going to run dry. These events will come with significant domestic/political consequences which will probably erode mass support for large military projects.

If the US is unlikely to produce game changing strategic weaponry at a large scale, and China is likely to achieve technological parity and outnumber the US military in almost every meaningful way, then as I said, the US is very justified in being concerned. I think the individual that wrote the article arguing that Chinese carriers don't really make a difference is actually helping China's cause.

 

[Comet]

^ Time will tell. I am certain that a country with such an economy can easily afford high tech stuff. I am not talking about walking on American footsteps. I am talking about Competing with them. If they can come up with technology that is able to counter American technology, then the game is over.

 

[applesauce]

Lol do you know that Japan fields the 2nd largest and technically one of the most advanced navies in the world? What are you talking about?

and your point is? China and Russia, its immediate neighbors both have a large fleet. japan is more advanced obviously but what i was talking about is the future. how an aircraft carrier is clearly not for defense only as japans constitution demand the country be. and that with more money china in the future can better compete. and oh right all those missiles china has...

Thats how the the Japanese got funding to build their ships, by calling them "advanced helicopter carriers"!! They are actually larger than many aircraft carriers around, and FYI, the Japanese are going to field the F-35 soon. So figure where they are going to put their naval F-35s.

about the helo carrying destroyer... its like 18k tons fully loaded...not that big by carrier sizes, that means 11 f-35 tops.

China has what you call a "brown water" navy which is Taiwan "conflict specific". No blue water capabilities and China has a lot to learn about being a true blue water navy. OTOH, there are a couple of navies in the neighborhood who actually have "blue water" capabilities and are an even match, if not more, to the PLAN.

yea... and i did NOT claim it has other wise. but of those in the neighborhood like i said other than the us they do stand a chance against others. the main scenario is defense(unless involving Taiwan). the Russian pacific fleet has like 30 principle combatant, Indian fleet in south china sea stands no chance, the Royal Australian Navy has some ~50 ships. of course the main navy power in the region other than usa is japan. and against those i will say that under current status the PLAN would not engage major navies openly and mostly likely only under heavy cover by coastal defenses and land-based aircraft cover. in relation to taiwan, the only force other than Taiwanese defenders is the USN which is why the mainland knows if it came down to it, it must take Taiwan quickly prior to the usa being able to deploy large numbers of ships to the area. also this is a part of the reason in developing carrier killers. so while PLAN is currently a brown water navy, it is capable of defending Chinese coasts with help from in land defenses against more technologically advanced opponents. and of courses it is trying to develop a blue water navy this is not a secret.

Building an aircraft carrier is one thing while operating and maintaining it is an altogether different ball game! Its a logistical nightmare for even the most experienced navies and it takes years to master carrier operations.

yea.... who claimed otherwise???? and stop bringing stuff up that no one disagrees with you on. my whole point was that those were the reason PLAN tells people not to worry, and that a arms race would not be good for japan its just expensive and what realistic scenarios can you think of that's leads to a Chinese invasion or blockade of japan? japan is after all under the protection of the usa when china have caught up to or close to catching up to the usa the they can worry and under the best scenarios for PLAN this will not happen for a long time yet.

 

[bigmoneymaker]

really need not to worry about it right now, when six indigenious carriers are coming out to the high seas then you should be worried and panicked as a natural response, rubbish talking of this article...because the writer still sit comfortably to write this moron reading material without feeling true fear.

 

[S-2]

If you believe this -

"...an aircraft carrier is clearly not for defense..."

then why would you suggest this-

"...my whole point was that those were the reason PLAN tells people not to worry, and that a arms race would not be good for japan its just expensive..."

If it follows that an aircraft carrier is clearly not for defense, then why shouldn't others worry? Japan, Australia, and America will worry. So too S. Korea, Indonesia, the Phillippines, Singapore, Malaysia, DPRV, and Taiwan.

Six carriers translates to a lot of capability and a very steep learning curve. However, even these capabilities can be eventually mastered, given time. If so, then achieving the ability to competently conduct flight operations, in-sea refueling and more will eventually come.

Any edge presently available to the west can only be secured by our continued development of capabilities guaranteed to sustain an adequate operational advantage.

PLAN wishes a blue-water force projection capability. That's exactly what planning for six aircraft carriers means.

Thanks.

 

[Gin ka Pakistan]

With in few months Obama Recues package will be paid out, so either they have to come up with new trillion dollars package or else USA is going for third recession in a go.

Present time
Right Now ( in 2009) China is 20 years behind US (one generation) but with in 5 years US total Budget will be fifteen trillion and revenue only 10 trillion a gap of 5 trillion deficit, which is 50%.

Future time
USA with in 5 to 10 years will start cutting its defense budget which means work on six generation will slow down. (Its takes ten years for research and ten years to get the final prototype to mature like F-16 project which has reached to final maturity.)

In 2030 China will be just ten years behind USA which is 0.5 of generation gap. with strong local market of its own

 

[gubbi]

japan is more advanced obviously but what i was talking about is the future.

And you think Japan or other countries are going to rest on their laurels?

about the helo carrying destroyer... its like 18k tons fully loaded...not that big by carrier sizes, that means 11 f-35 tops.

And yet, unlike PLAN, there's already one in service with a second coming up soon. With those 11 F-35's "tops", each, its still a very lethal force in the region and will remain so for quite sometime.

the Russian pacific fleet has like 30 principle combatant, Indian fleet in south china sea stands no chance, the Royal Australian Navy has some ~50 ships. of course the main navy power in the region other than usa is japan. and against those i will say that under current status the PLAN would not engage major navies openly and mostly likely only under heavy cover by coastal defenses and land-based aircraft cover.

IN is striving to be the major power in all of the Indian Ocean right from the Straits of Homruz to the Straits of Malacca, IN considers this whole region as its domain and are working to ensure it remains so in the future.

Of course PLAN is capable of defending Chinese coastal waters and its EEZ. Not to be able to do so would be humiliating. However the bone of contention is the IOR where IN reigns and which is a vital route for Chinese shipping. PLAN wants to project power in the IOR to secure their shipping lanes, IN will not allow it to do so. Nobody is going to rest on their laurels so even though China has much catching up to do, its for a long time, going to remain behind the curve.

japan is after all under the protection of the usa when china have caught up to or close to catching up to the usa the they can worry and under the best scenarios for PLAN this will not happen for a long time yet.

China can catch up to USA only when USA stops dead in its tracks! Somehow I dont see that happening.

 

[feifanke]

Thanks for the praise of Pakistan friends.

But i want to say it is not necessary to argue over these issues.

You can see it is few chinese in this topic though it involves china.

why? Because we chinese trust hands in instead of mouth.