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IAF strike into Pakistan - A simulation of sorts

Depends, Anza has good chance against a CAS aircraft since they get more time and chance to locate and fire.

Whereas a low flying aircraft at plain area flying low will not be targeted since there will be very less reaction time to aim and fire. There is little more chance if it is a hilly area.

having lived for a very long time with the AAK AAK guys .. I can give you a very low tech answer.
its called AAK AAK gun barrage .. a typical anti aircraft cannon for example ... is practised to respond in seconds and throw the lead in the air at a phenomenal rate . we practice shooting down tubes hanging by the slings on the back of PAF jets at low altitude. enemy jets on the other hand are much bigger. while air tech has taken leaps and bounds.. the anti aircraft artillery has not remained in the 1940's either . these guns are smarter, quicker and more precise something an arrogant jet pilot chooses to dismiss.

as i hinted earlier, the low key and unknown air defence command of Pakistan practices on the principle of surprise and worse case scenario,
 
Seriously????? The PAF won't be hit in a single place....and you must remember that the Su 30 can engage and disengage in a fight whenever it wants. And the First targets will always be your airbases and SEAD. The most important thing is the loss of every F 16C/D is similar to the loss of 5 Su 30 for us as the impact on availability of resources will be hit badly.
The question is for IAF to answer. Do they want to attack PAF and be blamed for starting ww3? Or take a chance with limited strike with minimum loss and try to achieve it without starting a full blown war.
In both cases PAF is very clear about response. Which is intercept the incoming bogeys and put in action the counter response to IAF. That could be strikes on IAF bases and other important targets. After taking those losses ball will be in Indias court wether respond to strikes and proceed to war or take a hit and do usual ran*I rona.
 
All good work sir however my two cents....unless one side can completely overwhelm the other as was the case in Gulf wars, in an India / Pakistan scenario, it's a well established fact that the attacking force will always suffer more. Some US think tanks also concluded, that provided there's a threat perception, any IAF aircraft entering Pakistan at low level to avoid detection will first have to compromise with soldiers patrolling border areas armed with the likes of Anza and other MANPADS.
Talking sense on PDF will only get you BANNED - AGAIN :D
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Musharraf made a very critical mistake during the Kargil War - he discounted the air aspect. This simulation has discounted the Army, as well as the following:

a) PA's Air Defence Systems
b) PA Arty strikes on bases like Pathankot
c) LACM's under the control of the Army
d) The PAF's stand off capability in terms of CM's & Missiles
e) No F-16B or F-16 D's were scrambled - why?

No air strike, would be single handedly be dealt by the PAF, but the other two other services would go on a war footing (equal to that of DEFCON 1) as well.

There are multiple other factors which would get involved, but that is not for me to discuss on a public forum. Time will tell.
 
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Couple of questions on how you set simulation parameters


- Threat identification - Does PAF have real time information of strike package on route such as number of bandits?

- PAF response - Is this the standard response or more interceptors are likely to have been scrambled to balance the scales

How are they gonna engage a IAF jet in case of a surprise attack????
I have read a couple of articles from Cope-India and i have to disagree on the fact that only Su-30mki's will be employed. From what ever i have read from Cope-India the Mig-21s and Flankers were employed side by side. Flankers kept the F-15s at long range while the Migs came in at low altitude and engaged the F-15s up close. This was done during both defensive and offensive roles. So you might want to add a couple of Tejas to the mix. I don't remember the link but if i can ill paste them here, you can modify the simulation results after that...

wouldn't the Sukhoi's force the F-16s to engage them first ? i would always imagine a strike package of Jags will be protected by Sukhoi's

@Abingdonboy @MilSpec @nair please comment

and btw.. I DEMAND ANSWERS ON WHAT PROGRAM YOU USED ...

i had a boner watching that simulation

Some things to clear up:

1.This is a IAF response to a terrorist attack and NOT all out war.
2. This is 2019, I see no evidence so far that the Tejas will be at an acceptable operational strength and be of that capacity where the IAF would want it employed in offensive operations.
3. The Mig-29s are playing the role of the Bisons in embedded escorts.
4. The PAF has information of the strike package in fits and starts, but expects it at Muridke since it makes the most obvious(diplomatically and politically) target to hit after a terror attack.
5. The Sukhois kept the F-16s at range, the Mig-29s snuck in with the strike package.
6.
Sir when we have got some prior intelligence of an imminent attack and PAF on high alert and max aircraft on ADA duties, then why wud PAF employ less numbers of aircraft to that high number of attacking aircraft? Had it been just one type of aircraft from one Base, then it would make sense that we dont want to leave that place vulnerable. But with dissimilar aircraft deployment, it shud have been IAF whose attacking aircraft numbers should have been less than ours. I wud suggest that AEWs shud also be made part of this simulation as they are suppose to give us advance warning.

AEW are part of the simulation. I have purposely discarded the possibility of humint and intel and left the awareness solely to sensors of the IAF attack.
Ok i want to understand key variables used for this simulation .Weapon ,Aerial supports ,Pilot skills /Terrain response etc ,seems interesting but F16 losses are huge

All weapons are current to supposed 2019 levels, AEW support and a datalink that shares enemy info is somewhat simulated. Pilot skills on both sides are excellent. Terrain is the weak point here as the game engine takes the
After the Bombay attacks, a similar situation in Ghandinagar clearly indicates a major security failure by the Indian intelligence agencies.

Computer simulation results depend upon the input in the software. The results may be close to what would happen in a conventional battle involving aircraft. What happens after the strike? WOULD Pakistan simply capitulate or is the nuclear threshold already crossed?

Is it right to assume that IAF is ready to strike within 24 hrs? One would expect some formal ultimatum which would give time for PAF to put its own strategy & ground defences in place. Besides, PAF may decide to launch her own attack somewhere, using aircrafts as well as missiles.

The simulation is limited to this strike package and response.
I believe the IAF has contingency packages prepared that are well rehearsed with selected pilots and units that might skip any formal ultimatum or otherwise if they feel that they are politically and diplomatically justified to attack their designated terrorist targets.
I can do a supposed PAF response later.

Seriously????? The PAF won't be hit in a single place....and you must remember that the Su 30 can engage and disengage in a fight whenever it wants. And the First targets will always be your airbases and SEAD. The most important thing is the loss of every F 16C/D is similar to the loss of 5 Su 30 for us as the impact on availability of resources will be hit badly.
NO. The Indian establishment will want to send the clear diplomatic message that its only coming for LeT. That being said, there was SEAD escort that is aiming directly at PAF assets. The rest of your post is irrelevant to this particular strike and package.

Looks like Strike Fighters 2....... I loved bombing the Soviets in SF2: Europe. (No offense to the Reds).
Any-who the most obvious thing, regarding the scenario for me is that the PAF has no "missile barrage" of it's own in the sky, something that gives it aerial dominance and better air-to-air engagement. I doubt any of the Thunders would be lost, if the PAF had a dedicated air-to-air platform.
Yes it is SF2, but there is nothing standard about it since I have tweaked the config files inside out.

That was the F-16, but the IAF will know what to engage and not engage. Their pilots will have some briefing which threat is more dangerous to them.
Talking sense on PDF will only get you BANNED - AGAIN :D
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Musharraf made a very critical mistake during the Kargil War - he discounted the air aspect. This simulation has discounted the Army, as well as the following:

a) PA's Air Defence Systems
b) PA Arty strikes on bases like Pathankot
c) LACM's under the control of the Army
d) The PAF's stand off capability in terms of CM's & Missiles
e) No F-16B or F-16 D's were scrambled - why?

No air strike, would be single handedly be dealt by the PAF, but the other two other services would go on a war footing (equal to that of DEFCON 1) as well.

There are multiple other factors which would get involved, but that is not for me to discuss on a public forum. Time will tell.

a) No it hasnt, infact the MKI's, the Jaguars and the Mirages all were targeted and engaged by SAMs ( I use an action camera that skipped the SAM launches). Their countermeasures and ECM were effective.

b) That would be after an event like this, not during the 25 minutes it lasted.

c) see b)

d) see b)

e) There is no need to scramble two seat aircraft for basic interception duties.
Please see b) for your entire comment.
why aircraft ~! A few brahmos will do the job . ;)
India would be willing to launch a weapon with a CeP of 15-20M into a highly populated area and have civilian casualties? I believe the Indian establishment is much more astute diplomatically and knows that avoiding collateral damage sends a strong message. The M2Ks and LGBs are 1-2M accurate.



What is important to note and especially for the usual suspects in the Whiny Indian member category that we have among the larger Indian diaspora is that the IAF had EVERYTHING going in its favour. From better avionics, to better numbers, to a great strike plan but most importantly;

In case of such terror attacks, the PAF is on HIGH alert with at least 3 CAPs airborne at any time and more aircraft on alert 5. This is the result of a "sleeping" PAF as such.

Sadly, certain Indians being of a particular mentality cannot see or accept that.
 
September 2018 -
The A massive explosion rocks the IIT campus in Gandhinagar leaving tens of students dead and hundreds injured. A finger is pointed immediately by India at the LeT even as less than 24 hours have passed. PM Modi delivers a sombre and terse message; "India has the right to take revenge".

PAF assets are only just being put on alert but the intelligence lines are buzzing.

The IAF is instructed to deliver a message with the following package.
The best pilots have been selected to deliver this message.


Disclaimer: AT NO POINT DID I PERSONALLY CONTROL AN AIRCRAFT OR MAKE INPUTS TO INFLUENCE THE OUTCOME, the only thing set was the number of aircraft and response aircraft of PAF - Who were given the assumed advantage of a long range sam battery as well. Pilots on both sides set with excellent skills. Radar range(and power) are set to best known "real world" levels along RCS, ECM and other parameters. I made no attempt to do anything less than any unfair advantage except the HQ-9 which isnt an unlikely factor.
The only thing not simulated is morale and panic. The AI pilots do what they came to do, fight how they can, die without "fear" or "hesitation".



The IAF Strike package had ToT just at dusk and was made up of:

2 x M2K - LGB -LeT HQ Muridke
2 x M2K - LGB -Hafiz Saeed last location - 3km west of Let HQ
4 x Jaguar DARIN - SEAD escort
3 x Mig-29 UPG - Embedded Escort
4 x Su-30 MKI - High altitude Escort
6 x Su-30 MKI - Fighter sweep
2 x Su-30 MKI - SEAD escort

___________________________________

23 Combat aircraft
All IAF aircraft are connected via simulated AFNET.
Ground Defence
1 x S-400
Akash Sams


In return the PAF standard alert 5 and 10 group send the following

PAF response:
2 x F-16C
4 x F-16A
4 x JF-17
2 x F-7PG

_____________________
12 Combat Aircraft
All PAF aircraft except F-7PG are connected via simulated Link-17


Ground Defences:
2 x LY-80
1 x HQ-9

Final Tally

IAF Losses:

7 x Su-30MKI ( 5 to air combat, 2 to SAMs)
3 x Jaguar DARIN
2 x M2K
--------------------------
52% of assets employed lost

PAF Losses:
4 x F-16A MLU
1 x F-16C
4 x JF-17
2 x F-7PG

-----------------------------
92% of assets employed lost

IAF mission 50% success, HS escapes but LeT HQ in Muridke hit.


As with all simulations, there is always what you think might happen and what does happen.The M2Ks were to follow a dogleg low level attack approach into target.. some of the flight time shown is them racing parallel to border before beginning their run.
The PAF was outnumbered 2:1 and I expected the F-16s to be the ones holding the fight and the JF-17s not lasting long. The F-16C's engaged first and decimated most of the Jaguar flight although one Jaguar managed to slip in and hit a PA RBS-70 & AAA battery South of Muridke.

The F-16A's which I assumed would be the most effective in air to air combat were so overwhelmed by the MKI's focus with volleys upon volleys of R-77s and R-27s that they only managed to take down 1 MKI before all 4 went down.

The JF-17 flight however had flown in low and because the MKI's were all focused on the F-16s, they did not pick up the smaller RCS JF-17 before they picked up the JF-17s and engaged. That focus on the F-16s left them vulnerable to the JF-17s attack and 3 MKI's were lost to JF-17s, along with the second M2K strike group. They were finally taken down by numbers with both MKI's and Mig-29's scoring kills.
The MKI's also were lost to HQ-9 systems due to their higher altitude.

This is only one run of the simulation, and I must state that beyond this video.. there were cases where the PAF took out the entire M2K squadron and had a kill ratio of 1.5:1; and also a run where the PAF managed only to destroy 2 or 4 aircraft and both IAF strikes went successful.

In the end, its just a show of what might , could , may not or may happen.

@Arsalan @Dazzler @Gufi @niaz @araz @fatman17 @Hell hound @Windjammer @chauvunist ..and please tag anyone who might be interested @Horus , FB Page??

@MilSpec @Abingdonboy @Spectre Tag anyone you want you might enjoy the casual fun.
After watching it again and again I have come to following conclusion about the results or atleast the aspects which will be the major difference maker.
INDIAN VICTORY:
How quickly SU30s can detect JF17 thunder which in this scenario will be the last one to be airborne. If SU30s can detect and engage JF17s earlier therefore completely checkmating thunders completely. In this situation it will be total IAF victory with the destruction of all of the PAF airborne assets.
PAKISTAN VICTORY:
To be very honest in the scenario only one thing will help PAF prayers and lots of prayers. The reasoning behind that statement is that in this scenario where enemy have advantage of numbers,tech and ability to carry heavy load PAF will be depending on enemys error. Only if SU30s are overwhelmed with engaging and countering ground and air threats will thunders will be able to sneak up silently. Also how good is situational awareness of the pilots being airborne on thunders.
My decision:
The package countering the threat is too small in numbers, tech and payload.
I would add another 3 f16s A or C so it will be :
4 f16s A
4 f16s C
2 F7pg
4 Jf17s
 
After watching it again and again I have come to following conclusion about the results or atleast the aspects which will be the major difference maker.
INDIAN VICTORY:
How quickly SU30s can detect JF17 thunder which in this scenario will be the last one to be airborne. If SU30s can detect and engage JF17s earlier therefore completely checkmating thunders completely. In this situation it will be total IAF victory with the destruction of all of the PAF airborne assets.
PAKISTAN VICTORY:
To be very honest in the scenario only one thing will help PAF prayers and lots of prayers. The reasoning behind that statement is that in this scenario where enemy have advantage of numbers,tech and ability to carry heavy load PAF will be depending on enemys error. Only if SU30s are overwhelmed with engaging and countering ground and air threats will thunders will be able to sneak up silently. Also how good is situational awareness of the pilots being airborne on thunders.
My decision:
The package countering the threat is too small in numbers, tech and payload.
I would add another 3 f16s A or C so it will be :
4 f16s A
4 f16s C
2 F7pg
4 Jf17s

The package is NOT a realistic package and more along the lines of a peacetime PAF response. I kept thinking of adding more and more to the IAF package but frankly the IAF assets were sufficient for this task and fairly realistic of the required punch they might need and technically might muster.

Too large a package would be difficult to handle and coordinate over such a particular timespace and specific target.
I also thought of stand off munitions but with the urban environment, it makes sense for the Indian government to want to project the most positive image possible out of a first strike, which means LGBs and mirages. Additionally, the M2Ks are the most mature precision strike platform the IAF has and it knows their usage well.

This scenario can be run a hundred times with a hundred differrent results. But the fact remains that the IAF will still have air superiority over the target eventually unless the PAF has more assets in the air, or as assets on station. Contrary to certain whining folks from the other side, this was heavily tilted in the IAF's favour.
 
Yes it is SF2, but there is nothing standard about it since I have tweaked the config files inside out.
I noticed, never seen those planes in the game before (mods?). And it runs really smooth, plus I didn't know you could have AI battles in the game, a really good job :tup:.
That was the F-16
F-16 is a great bird, no denying that, but it's meant to be the Jack of All, and it's in a fight against bird built in mind for aerial superiority.
Their pilots will have some briefing which threat is more dangerous to them.
So if the IAF engages planes which are dedicated for air-to-air combat, will it take more time for them to take them down? If so the F-16s and Thunders would look for an opportunity to take them out, whilst they are distracted.












PS: Have you ran simulations of MKIs vs F-15s or J-11s?, I'd like to know their outcome.
 
All weapons are current to supposed 2019 levels, AEW support and a datalink that shares enemy info is somewhat simulated. Pilot skills on both sides are excellent. Terrain is the weak point here as the game engine takes the
Hmmm Good effort perhaps this could be shared if not done already with PAF high officials to assess since we are always inferior in quantity ,Its time to level up in Quantity or Quality
 
The question is for IAF to answer. Do they want to attack PAF and be blamed for starting ww3? Or take a chance with limited strike with minimum loss and try to achieve it without starting a full blown war.
In both cases PAF is very clear about response. Which is intercept the incoming bogeys and put in action the counter response to IAF. That could be strikes on IAF bases and other important targets. After taking those losses ball will be in Indias court wether respond to strikes and proceed to war or take a hit and do usual ran*I rona.


There is nothing called a limited war. Whatever you/we do is going to end up as a full blown war. The losses will be humongous. but it will never be a world war III like you suggest.

Some things to clear up:







NO. The Indian establishment will want to send the clear diplomatic message that its only coming for LeT. That being said, there was SEAD escort that is aiming directly at PAF assets. The rest of your post is irrelevant to this particular strike and package.

Well there is nothing called as a limited war in the scenario. And only training camps means stand off missiles will be used because most of them are located around 100 kms from the international border. The strike package will be sent in only after the enemy air defence and SAM sites are suppressed. We are not the USA who can have a dedicated EW aircraft.

The rest of the post is very relevant as the Su 30 can engage and disengage at it's will because of it's longer range compared to the JF 17 and F7 PG. And am sure that the F 16s wont be used to intercept the Su 30
 
The war will effect the northern India badly and Pakistani cities, if the conventional war start.
In case of failure of any country the nuke weapon would be must use both sides.
 
wrong assumption.IAF is never going to be deployed that deep into enemy territory just to face an all out war.and also,why bother,we'll use standoff weapons that will perform better with less risks..Thats why it was developed,wasn't it?
 
The package is NOT a realistic package and more along the lines of a peacetime PAF response. I kept thinking of adding more and more to the IAF package but frankly the IAF assets were sufficient for this task and fairly realistic of the required punch they might need and technically might muster.

Too large a package would be difficult to handle and coordinate over such a particular timespace and specific target.
I also thought of stand off munitions but with the urban environment, it makes sense for the Indian government to want to project the most positive image possible out of a first strike, which means LGBs and mirages. Additionally, the M2Ks are the most mature precision strike platform the IAF has and it knows their usage well.

This scenario can be run a hundred times with a hundred differrent results. But the fact remains that the IAF will still have air superiority over the target eventually unless the PAF has more assets in the air, or as assets on station. Contrary to certain whining folks from the other side, this was heavily tilted in the IAF's favour.

Sir, I'm NOT an Air Force guy, but from what I know of the PAF (& ISI) this is nothing less than an Indian feel good thread.

I guess after the buffoonery of your neighbors, this was needed to keep the web traffic up.

Best Regards
 
Sir, I'm NOT an Air Force guy, but from what I know of the PAF (& ISI) this is nothing less than an Indian feel good thread.

I guess after the buffoonery of your neighbors, this was needed to keep the web traffic up.

Best Regards

As mentioned before, I have purposely disadvantaged the PAF. This is the PAF performing at unrealistic disadvantage.

Hmmm Good effort perhaps this could be shared if not done already with PAF high officials to assess since we are always inferior in quantity ,Its time to level up in Quantity or Quality
This is not a realistic simulation as many advantages that the PAF would enjoy in such a scenario have been negated.
 
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