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IAF strike into Pakistan - A simulation of sorts

SQ8

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September 2018 -
The A massive explosion rocks the IIT campus in Gandhinagar leaving tens of students dead and hundreds injured. A finger is pointed immediately by India at the LeT even as less than 24 hours have passed. PM Modi delivers a sombre and terse message; "India has the right to take revenge".

PAF assets are only just being put on alert but the intelligence lines are buzzing.

The IAF is instructed to deliver a message with the following package.
The best pilots have been selected to deliver this message.


Disclaimer: AT NO POINT DID I PERSONALLY CONTROL AN AIRCRAFT OR MAKE INPUTS TO INFLUENCE THE OUTCOME, the only thing set was the number of aircraft and response aircraft of PAF - Who were given the assumed advantage of a long range sam battery as well. Pilots on both sides set with excellent skills. Radar range(and power) are set to best known "real world" levels along RCS, ECM and other parameters. I made no attempt to do anything less than any unfair advantage except the HQ-9 which isnt an unlikely factor.
The only thing not simulated is morale and panic. The AI pilots do what they came to do, fight how they can, die without "fear" or "hesitation".



The IAF Strike package had ToT just at dusk and was made up of:

2 x M2K - LGB -LeT HQ Muridke
2 x M2K - LGB -Hafiz Saeed last location - 3km west of Let HQ
4 x Jaguar DARIN - SEAD escort
3 x Mig-29 UPG - Embedded Escort
4 x Su-30 MKI - High altitude Escort
6 x Su-30 MKI - Fighter sweep
2 x Su-30 MKI - SEAD escort

___________________________________

23 Combat aircraft
All IAF aircraft are connected via simulated AFNET.
Ground Defence
1 x S-400
Akash Sams


In return the PAF standard alert 5 and 10 group send the following

PAF response:
2 x F-16C
4 x F-16A
4 x JF-17
2 x F-7PG

_____________________
12 Combat Aircraft
All PAF aircraft except F-7PG are connected via simulated Link-17


Ground Defences:
2 x LY-80
1 x HQ-9

Final Tally

IAF Losses:

7 x Su-30MKI ( 5 to air combat, 2 to SAMs)
3 x Jaguar DARIN
2 x M2K
--------------------------
52% of assets employed lost

PAF Losses:
4 x F-16A MLU
1 x F-16C
4 x JF-17
2 x F-7PG

-----------------------------
92% of assets employed lost

IAF mission 50% success, HS escapes but LeT HQ in Muridke hit.


As with all simulations, there is always what you think might happen and what does happen.The M2Ks were to follow a dogleg low level attack approach into target.. some of the flight time shown is them racing parallel to border before beginning their run.
The PAF was outnumbered 2:1 and I expected the F-16s to be the ones holding the fight and the JF-17s not lasting long. The F-16C's engaged first and decimated most of the Jaguar flight although one Jaguar managed to slip in and hit a PA RBS-70 & AAA battery South of Muridke.

The F-16A's which I assumed would be the most effective in air to air combat were so overwhelmed by the MKI's focus with volleys upon volleys of R-77s and R-27s that they only managed to take down 1 MKI before all 4 went down.

The JF-17 flight however had flown in low and because the MKI's were all focused on the F-16s, they did not pick up the smaller RCS JF-17 before they picked up the JF-17s and engaged. That focus on the F-16s left them vulnerable to the JF-17s attack and 3 MKI's were lost to JF-17s, along with the second M2K strike group. They were finally taken down by numbers with both MKI's and Mig-29's scoring kills.
The MKI's also were lost to HQ-9 systems due to their higher altitude.

This is only one run of the simulation, and I must state that beyond this video.. there were cases where the PAF took out the entire M2K squadron and had a kill ratio of 1.5:1; and also a run where the PAF managed only to destroy 2 or 4 aircraft and both IAF strikes went successful.

In the end, its just a show of what might , could , may not or may happen.

@Arsalan @Dazzler @Gufi @niaz @araz @fatman17 @Hell hound @Windjammer @chauvunist ..and please tag anyone who might be interested @Horus , FB Page??

@MilSpec @Abingdonboy @Spectre Tag anyone you want you might enjoy the casual fun.
 
September 2018 -
The A massive explosion rocks the IIT campus in Gandhinagar leaving tens of students dead and hundreds injured. A finger is pointed immediately by India at the LeT even as less than 24 hours have passed. PM Modi delivers a sombre and terse message; "India has the right to take revenge".

PAF assets are only just being put on alert but the intelligence lines are buzzing.

The IAF is instructed to deliver a message with the following package.
The best pilots have been selected to deliver this message.


Disclaimer: AT NO POINT DID I PERSONALLY CONTROL AN AIRCRAFT OR MAKE INPUTS TO INFLUENCE THE OUTCOME, the only thing set was the number of aircraft and response aircraft of PAF - Who were given the assumed advantage of a long range sam battery as well. Pilots on both sides set with excellent skills. Radar range(and power) are set to best known "real world" levels along RCS, ECM and other parameters. I made no attempt to do anything less than any unfair advantage except the HQ-9 which isnt an unlikely factor.
The only thing not simulated is morale and panic. The AI pilots do what they came to do, fight how they can, die without "fear" or "hesitation".



The IAF Strike package had ToT just at dusk and was made up of:

2 x M2K - LGB -LeT HQ Muridke
2 x M2K - LGB -Hafiz Saeed last location - 3km west of Let HQ
4 x Jaguar DARIN - SEAD escort
3 x Mig-29 UPG - Embedded Escort
4 x Su-30 MKI - High altitude Escort
6 x Su-30 MKI - Fighter sweep
2 x Su-30 MKI - SEAD escort

___________________________________

23 Combat aircraft
All IAF aircraft are connected via simulated AFNET.
Ground Defence
1 x S-400
Akash Sams


In return the PAF standard alert 5 and 10 group send the following

PAF response:
2 x F-16C
4 x F-16A
4 x JF-17
2 x F-7PG

_____________________
12 Combat Aircraft
All PAF aircraft except F-7PG are connected via simulated Link-17


Ground Defences:
2 x LY-80
1 x HQ-9

Final Tally

IAF Losses:

7 x Su-30MKI ( 5 to air combat, 2 to SAMs)
3 x Jaguar DARIN
2 x M2K
--------------------------
52% of assets employed lost

PAF Losses:
4 x F-16A MLU
1 x F-16C
4 x JF-17
2 x F-7PG

-----------------------------
92% of assets employed lost

IAF mission 50% success, HS escapes but LeT HQ in Muridke hit.


As with all simulations, there is always what you think might happen and what does happen.The M2Ks were to follow a dogleg low level attack approach into target.. some of the flight time shown is them racing parallel to border before beginning their run.
The PAF was outnumbered 2:1 and I expected the F-16s to be the ones holding the fight and the JF-17s not lasting long. The F-16C's engaged first and decimated most of the Jaguar flight although one Jaguar managed to slip in and hit a PA RBS-70 & AAA battery South of Muridke.

The F-16A's which I assumed would be the most effective in air to air combat were so overwhelmed by the MKI's focus with volleys upon volleys of R-77s and R-27s that they only managed to take down 1 MKI before all 4 went down.

The JF-17 flight however had flown in low and because the MKI's were all focused on the F-16s, they did not pick up the smaller RCS JF-17 before they picked up the JF-17s and engaged. That focus on the F-16s left them vulnerable to the JF-17s attack and 3 MKI's were lost to JF-17s, along with the second M2K strike group. They were finally taken down by numbers with both MKI's and Mig-29's scoring kills.
The MKI's also were lost to HQ-9 systems due to their higher altitude.

This is only one run of the simulation, and I must state that beyond this video.. there were cases where the PAF took out the entire M2K squadron and had a kill ratio of 1.5:1; and also a run where the PAF managed only to destroy 2 or 4 aircraft and both IAF strikes went successful.

In the end, its just a show of what might , could , may not or may happen.

@Arsalan @Dazzler @Gufi @niaz @araz @fatman17 @Hell hound @Windjammer @chauvunist ..and please tag anyone who might be interested @Horus , FB Page??

@MilSpec @Abingdonboy @Spectre Tag anyone you want you might enjoy the casual fun.

Couple of questions on how you set simulation parameters


- Threat identification - Does PAF have real time information of strike package on route such as number of bandits?

- PAF response - Is this the standard response or more interceptors are likely to have been scrambled to balance the scales
 
Now you HAVE to tell me, what software/program you are using to run these simulations? :)

Also IAF was given an unfair advantage as we never deployed our pigeons,
 
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23 Combat aircraft
12 Combat Aircraft

Sir when we have got some prior intelligence of an imminent attack and PAF on high alert and max aircraft on ADA duties, then why wud PAF employ less numbers of aircraft to that high number of attacking aircraft? Had it been just one type of aircraft from one Base, then it would make sense that we dont want to leave that place vulnerable. But with dissimilar aircraft deployment, it shud have been IAF whose attacking aircraft numbers should have been less than ours. I wud suggest that AEWs shud also be made part of this simulation as they are suppose to give us advance warning.
 
tag me if you have any objections!
A lot of effort have been put into the post, it does gives an insight even if based on merely compute simulations about how things may unfold. For me, it was eligible for a +ive rating. I also feel that we have been a bit miserly when it comes to giving out ratings and that SHOULD NOT be the case.
So if you have any objections you may:
  1. Either have the courtesy of tagging me when objecting to some decision i made
  2. Tag some moderator so they can review.
  3. We even have a separate thread to discuss such issues so you may post your concern there.
rants and personal insults like this wont get you positive rantings either!
 
Last edited by a moderator:
September 2018 -
The A massive explosion rocks the IIT campus in Gandhinagar leaving tens of students dead and hundreds injured. A finger is pointed immediately by India at the LeT even as less than 24 hours have passed. PM Modi delivers a sombre and terse message; "India has the right to take revenge".

PAF assets are only just being put on alert but the intelligence lines are buzzing.

The IAF is instructed to deliver a message with the following package.
The best pilots have been selected to deliver this message.


Disclaimer: AT NO POINT DID I PERSONALLY CONTROL AN AIRCRAFT OR MAKE INPUTS TO INFLUENCE THE OUTCOME, the only thing set was the number of aircraft and response aircraft of PAF - Who were given the assumed advantage of a long range sam battery as well. Pilots on both sides set with excellent skills. Radar range(and power) are set to best known "real world" levels along RCS, ECM and other parameters. I made no attempt to do anything less than any unfair advantage except the HQ-9 which isnt an unlikely factor.
The only thing not simulated is morale and panic. The AI pilots do what they came to do, fight how they can, die without "fear" or "hesitation".



The IAF Strike package had ToT just at dusk and was made up of:

2 x M2K - LGB -LeT HQ Muridke
2 x M2K - LGB -Hafiz Saeed last location - 3km west of Let HQ
4 x Jaguar DARIN - SEAD escort
3 x Mig-29 UPG - Embedded Escort
4 x Su-30 MKI - High altitude Escort
6 x Su-30 MKI - Fighter sweep
2 x Su-30 MKI - SEAD escort

___________________________________

23 Combat aircraft
All IAF aircraft are connected via simulated AFNET.
Ground Defence
1 x S-400
Akash Sams


In return the PAF standard alert 5 and 10 group send the following

PAF response:
2 x F-16C
4 x F-16A
4 x JF-17
2 x F-7PG

_____________________
12 Combat Aircraft
All PAF aircraft except F-7PG are connected via simulated Link-17


Ground Defences:
2 x LY-80
1 x HQ-9

Final Tally

IAF Losses:

7 x Su-30MKI ( 5 to air combat, 2 to SAMs)
3 x Jaguar DARIN
2 x M2K
--------------------------
52% of assets employed lost

PAF Losses:
4 x F-16A MLU
1 x F-16C
4 x JF-17
2 x F-7PG

-----------------------------
92% of assets employed lost

IAF mission 50% success, HS escapes but LeT HQ in Muridke hit.


As with all simulations, there is always what you think might happen and what does happen.The M2Ks were to follow a dogleg low level attack approach into target.. some of the flight time shown is them racing parallel to border before beginning their run.
The PAF was outnumbered 2:1 and I expected the F-16s to be the ones holding the fight and the JF-17s not lasting long. The F-16C's engaged first and decimated most of the Jaguar flight although one Jaguar managed to slip in and hit a PA RBS-70 & AAA battery South of Muridke.

The F-16A's which I assumed would be the most effective in air to air combat were so overwhelmed by the MKI's focus with volleys upon volleys of R-77s and R-27s that they only managed to take down 1 MKI before all 4 went down.

The JF-17 flight however had flown in low and because the MKI's were all focused on the F-16s, they did not pick up the smaller RCS JF-17 before they picked up the JF-17s and engaged. That focus on the F-16s left them vulnerable to the JF-17s attack and 3 MKI's were lost to JF-17s, along with the second M2K strike group. They were finally taken down by numbers with both MKI's and Mig-29's scoring kills.
The MKI's also were lost to HQ-9 systems due to their higher altitude.

This is only one run of the simulation, and I must state that beyond this video.. there were cases where the PAF took out the entire M2K squadron and had a kill ratio of 1.5:1; and also a run where the PAF managed only to destroy 2 or 4 aircraft and both IAF strikes went successful.

In the end, its just a show of what might , could , may not or may happen.

@Arsalan @Dazzler @Gufi @niaz @araz @fatman17 @Hell hound @Windjammer @chauvunist ..and please tag anyone who might be interested @Horus , FB Page??

@MilSpec @Abingdonboy @Spectre Tag anyone you want you might enjoy the casual fun.


I have read a couple of articles from Cope-India and i have to disagree on the fact that only Su-30mki's will be employed. From what ever i have read from Cope-India the Mig-21s and Flankers were employed side by side. Flankers kept the F-15s at long range while the Migs came in at low altitude and engaged the F-15s up close. This was done during both defensive and offensive roles. So you might want to add a couple of Tejas to the mix. I don't remember the link but if i can ill paste them here, you can modify the simulation results after that...

wouldn't the Sukhoi's force the F-16s to engage them first ? i would always imagine a strike package of Jags will be protected by Sukhoi's

@Abingdonboy @MilSpec @nair please comment

and btw.. I DEMAND ANSWERS ON WHAT PROGRAM YOU USED ...

i had a boner watching that simulation
 
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I am trying. But do you really think that 10 students will prompt us to do so ?

that topic is for another thread, lets stick to air combat etc....

Sir when we have got some prior intelligence of an imminent attack and PAF on high alert and max aircraft on ADA duties, then why wud PAF employ less numbers of aircraft to that high number of attacking aircraft? Had it been just one type of aircraft from one Base, then it would make sense that we dont want to leave that place vulnerable. But with dissimilar aircraft deployment, it shud have been IAF whose attacking aircraft numbers should have been less than ours. I wud suggest that AEWs shud also be made part of this simulation as they are suppose to give us advance warning.

I assume its what the PAF could scramble immediately, It takes only minutes for an IAF aircraft to cross the border from its forward Airfields, It really does not give too much time for PAF to respond
 
I believe this type of attack will take place in AJK on camps or Lahore (LET headquarters) most preferably in AJK..does Pakistan have that Much assets in AJk???
 
September 2018 -
The A massive explosion rocks the IIT campus in Gandhinagar leaving tens of students dead and hundreds injured. A finger is pointed immediately by India at the LeT even as less than 24 hours have passed. PM Modi delivers a sombre and terse message; "India has the right to take revenge".

PAF assets are only just being put on alert but the intelligence lines are buzzing.

The IAF is instructed to deliver a message with the following package.
The best pilots have been selected to deliver this message.


Disclaimer: AT NO POINT DID I PERSONALLY CONTROL AN AIRCRAFT OR MAKE INPUTS TO INFLUENCE THE OUTCOME, the only thing set was the number of aircraft and response aircraft of PAF - Who were given the assumed advantage of a long range sam battery as well. Pilots on both sides set with excellent skills. Radar range(and power) are set to best known "real world" levels along RCS, ECM and other parameters. I made no attempt to do anything less than any unfair advantage except the HQ-9 which isnt an unlikely factor.
The only thing not simulated is morale and panic. The AI pilots do what they came to do, fight how they can, die without "fear" or "hesitation".



The IAF Strike package had ToT just at dusk and was made up of:

2 x M2K - LGB -LeT HQ Muridke
2 x M2K - LGB -Hafiz Saeed last location - 3km west of Let HQ
4 x Jaguar DARIN - SEAD escort
3 x Mig-29 UPG - Embedded Escort
4 x Su-30 MKI - High altitude Escort
6 x Su-30 MKI - Fighter sweep
2 x Su-30 MKI - SEAD escort

___________________________________

23 Combat aircraft
All IAF aircraft are connected via simulated AFNET.
Ground Defence
1 x S-400
Akash Sams


In return the PAF standard alert 5 and 10 group send the following

PAF response:
2 x F-16C
4 x F-16A
4 x JF-17
2 x F-7PG

_____________________
12 Combat Aircraft
All PAF aircraft except F-7PG are connected via simulated Link-17


Ground Defences:
2 x LY-80
1 x HQ-9

Final Tally

IAF Losses:

7 x Su-30MKI ( 5 to air combat, 2 to SAMs)
3 x Jaguar DARIN
2 x M2K
--------------------------
52% of assets employed lost

PAF Losses:
4 x F-16A MLU
1 x F-16C
4 x JF-17
2 x F-7PG

-----------------------------
92% of assets employed lost

IAF mission 50% success, HS escapes but LeT HQ in Muridke hit.


As with all simulations, there is always what you think might happen and what does happen.The M2Ks were to follow a dogleg low level attack approach into target.. some of the flight time shown is them racing parallel to border before beginning their run.
The PAF was outnumbered 2:1 and I expected the F-16s to be the ones holding the fight and the JF-17s not lasting long. The F-16C's engaged first and decimated most of the Jaguar flight although one Jaguar managed to slip in and hit a PA RBS-70 & AAA battery South of Muridke.

The F-16A's which I assumed would be the most effective in air to air combat were so overwhelmed by the MKI's focus with volleys upon volleys of R-77s and R-27s that they only managed to take down 1 MKI before all 4 went down.

The JF-17 flight however had flown in low and because the MKI's were all focused on the F-16s, they did not pick up the smaller RCS JF-17 before they picked up the JF-17s and engaged. That focus on the F-16s left them vulnerable to the JF-17s attack and 3 MKI's were lost to JF-17s, along with the second M2K strike group. They were finally taken down by numbers with both MKI's and Mig-29's scoring kills.
The MKI's also were lost to HQ-9 systems due to their higher altitude.

This is only one run of the simulation, and I must state that beyond this video.. there were cases where the PAF took out the entire M2K squadron and had a kill ratio of 1.5:1; and also a run where the PAF managed only to destroy 2 or 4 aircraft and both IAF strikes went successful.

In the end, its just a show of what might , could , may not or may happen.

@Arsalan @Dazzler @Gufi @niaz @araz @fatman17 @Hell hound @Windjammer @chauvunist ..and please tag anyone who might be interested @Horus , FB Page??

@MilSpec @Abingdonboy @Spectre Tag anyone you want you might enjoy the casual fun.

in your simulation there are 10 SU 30mki and 3 Mig-29 UPG (upgraded verions) are there to support to the strike team consists of 4 mk2 and 4 Jaguar DARIN... and then PAF just send 6 f-16, 4 jf-17 and 2 F-7PG:lol: (i didn't know that PAF have a policy of sending "sheeps to kill wolfs")..

in your scenario, PAF is heavily outnumbered and is up against much more superior aircraft. SU-30MKI, mig -29 UPG are much superior than anything flown by PAF today and even in 2018. so how did you came to such a conclusion that IAF will lost 7 x Su-30MKI ( 5 to air combat, 2 to SAMs) 3 x Jaguar DARIN 2 x M2K!!!??? do you think that your SAM can lock on the jets fitted with high power jammers? SU 30mki are much superior than F-16s in every parameter so your dream of shooting down of SU 30 MKI with your F-16 are just a wet dream....
and it is sure that F-7PG are send to waste some missile or Bullets of SU-30mki...
 
I assume its what the PAF could scramble immediately, It takes only minutes for an IAF aircraft to cross the border from its forward Airfields, It really does not give too much time for PAF to respond
Like i said earlier that as PAF is supposedly already on alert and AEWs are constantly in air then any aggressive formation/maneuvers by IAF is suppose to be responded quickly, even when IAF aircraft are in its own boundaries. Most of our MOBs/FOBs are on along eastern borders and launching a major counter formation would be no problem at all. Also PAF wud surely want to shoot down everyone of the intruding aircraft so it is suppose to launch a full response package.
 
All good work sir however my two cents....unless one side can completely overwhelm the other as was the case in Gulf wars, in an India / Pakistan scenario, it's a well established fact that the attacking force will always suffer more. Some US think tanks also concluded, that provided there's a threat perception, any IAF aircraft entering Pakistan at low level to avoid detection will first have to compromise with soldiers patrolling border areas armed with the likes of Anza and other MANPADS.
 
I have read a couple of articles from Cope-India and i have to disagree on the fact that only Su-30mki's will be employed. From what ever i have read from Cope-India the Mig-21s and Flankers were employed side by side. Flankers kept the F-15s at long range while the Migs came in at low altitude and engaged the F-15s up close. This was done during both defensive and offensive roles. So you might want to add a couple of Tejas to the mix. I don't remember the link but if i can ill paste them here, you can modify the simulation results after that...

wouldn't the Sukhoi's force the F-16s to engage them first ? i would always imagine a strike package of Jags will be protected by Sukhoi's

@Abingdonboy @MilSpec @nair please comment

and btw.. I DEMAND ANSWERS ON WHAT PROGRAM YOU USED ...

i had a boner watching that simulation
Well MiG 21 will be used effectively
 
All good work sir however my two cents....unless one side can completely overwhelm the other as was the case in Gulf wars, in an India / Pakistan scenario, it's a well established fact that the attacking force will always suffer more. Some US think tanks also concluded, that provided there's a threat perception, any IAF aircraft entering Pakistan at low level to avoid detection will first have to compromise with soldiers patrolling border areas armed with the likes of Anza and other MANPADS.

How are they gonna engage a IAF jet in case of a surprise attack????
 
Ok i want to understand key variables used for this simulation .Weapon ,Aerial supports ,Pilot skills /Terrain response etc ,seems interesting but F16 losses are huge
 
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