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Syrian Civil War (Graphic Photos/Vid Not Allowed)

It's absolutely insane that people here think that if Assad falls, all the groups will sit together, have a free election, and then ISIS will peacefully concede that they didn't receive enough votes ,and just slip away. It boggles my mind that people have such a idealistic, naive political view.

It's almost cute.
In 2011 we could have an easy peaceful transition if Assad was going. Now things are messed and complicated.

Nevertheless we can see that rebel fractions: FSA, IF, Nusra and Kurds deal quite well with each other so after Assad regime goes the only problem will be a mad dog ISIS.
 
In 2011 we could have an easy peaceful transition if Assad was going. Now things are messed and complicated.

Nevertheless we can see that rebel fractions: FSA, IF, Nusra and Kurds deal quite well with each other so after Assad regime goes the only problem will be a mad dog ISIS.

If regional powers were interested, they could have pushed for talks to slow push Assad out of the picture. From early on, they poured money for the rebels, and initially there were many gains against the government so they all assumed that since Assad would fall no one was interested in having talks with the government. Their talks all had a condition. Assad should agree to leave then they can talk.

This generally never works. It's like how there is going to be peace talks in Yemen regarding the different parties in Geneva in a few days, but Hadi has snubbed it, claiming he won't go because his condition is that Houthis should first surrender and then he will talk. How is it smart to set such a condition before even having talks?

Pressure could have been placed on Assad to introduce reforms until there would be a huge change in the government. Initially, both Russia & Iran were interested in applying pressure on Assad to introduce such reforms, but the regional powers were so high on their initial success that they were not interested. What better for them to get rid of the government and have in place groups that they had supported from day 1? It would be a huge political gain, specially for a country like Turkey that had Syria as its neighbor. Remember, these were the days of Morsi being in power, and Turkey could envision a new map for the region. Turkey+Morsi's Egypt+a new government in Syria that is indebted to Turkey. It was such a tasty temptation. Who could resist?
 
It's absolutely insane that people here think that if Assad falls, all the groups will sit together, have a free election, and then ISIS will peacefully concede that they didn't receive enough votes ,and just slip away. It boggles my mind that people have such a idealistic, naive political view.

It's almost cute.

Assad himself is also one of the reasons for what is happening now. Had he stepped down in the early days of the uprising things would not have reached to the level it has reached now.

If regional powers were interested, they could have pushed for talks to slow push Assad out of the picture. From early on, they poured money for the rebels, and initially there were many gains against the government so they all assumed that since Assad would fall no one was interested in having talks with the government. Their talks all had a condition. Assad should agree to leave then they can talk.

This generally never works. It's like how there is going to be peace talks in Yemen regarding the different parties in Geneva in a few days, but Hadi has snubbed it, claiming he won't go because his condition is that Houthis should first surrender and then he will talk. How is it smart to set such a condition before even having talks?

Pressure could have been placed on Assad to introduce reforms until there would be a huge change in the government. Initially, both Russia & Iran were interested in applying pressure on Assad to introduce such reforms, but the regional powers were so high on their initial success that they were not interested. What better for them to get rid of the government and have in place groups that they had supported from day 1? It would be a huge political gain, specially for a country like Turkey that had Syria as its neighbor. Remember, these were the days of Morsi being in power, and Turkey could envision a new map for the region. Turkey+Morsi's Egypt+a new government in Syria that is indebted to Turkey. It was such a tasty temptation. Who could resist?

In the early days Assad dismissed everything happening against him as nothing serious, infact he called the people insects and animals etc. Weeks into the initial un-armed, peaceful uprising, when first time Buthaina Shabaan said on Live TV that some trouble makers are inciting violence, and everything is very normal and nothing out of the normal is happening, i said to myself this is going to end up very very bad.
 
Assad himself is also one of the reasons for what is happening now. Had he stepped down in the early days of the uprising things would not have reached to the level it has reached now.

In the early days Assad dismissed everything happening against him as nothing serious, infact he called the people insects and animals etc. Weeks into the initial un-armed, peaceful uprising, when first time Buthaina Shabaan said on Live TV that some trouble makers are inciting violence, and everything is very normal and nothing out of the normal is happening, i said to myself this is going to end up very very bad.

While there is absolutely no doubt that Assad badly mishandled, misjudged, and underestimated the protests, it can not be denied that they quickly also saw the danger that was rising.

See this statement from them in April, 2011,
"Some of these groups have called for armed insurrection under the motto of jihad to set up a Salafist state," the ministry statement read, referring to the Salafi movement of ultraconservative Sunni Islam, according to Al Jazeera's translation. "What they did is an ugly crime severely punished by law. Their objective is to spread terror across Syria."
 
Assadists mistakenly dropped a Russian bomb on their own Latakia:

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It's absolutely insane that people here think that if Assad falls, all the groups will sit together, have a free election, and then ISIS will peacefully concede that they didn't receive enough votes ,and just slip away. It boggles my mind that people have such a idealistic, naive political view.

It's almost cute.
When you have cancer, you don't treat the symptoms but rather eradicate the disease itself. Yet, the root of all troubles in Syria is Bashar and his Shiite allies. Those must be eradicated to be able to treat the symptoms .
 
Hezbollah fighters have captured two hilltops from al Qaeda's Syria wing Nusra Front in areas close to the Lebanese border and have killed dozens of enemy combatants, Hezbollah-run al-Manar television reported on Monday.
 
Behold, the might of US air power.
These_maps_show_what_ISIS-dd92afd9d10f092b5d4f311080d1d01d
These two maps show very little about US influence, since strikes started in end of September 2014 and not in May.

Here I made a map comparing situation before US strikes in end of September 2014 and now:

these_maps_show_what_isis-dd92afd9d10f092b5d4f311080d1d01d.1432639313.jpg


And here I made a map how would today situation look without US strikes compare to actual:

these_maps_show_what_isis-dd92afd9d10f092b5d4f311080d1d01.1432639357.jpg
 
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Turkey: Not-Quite Rule of Law
by Burak Bekdil
May 25, 2015 at 4:00 am


Turkey: Not-Quite Rule of Law

  • The testimonies of the prosecutors make for interesting reading, especially for anyone who might be thinking that Turkey is part of the Western coalition fighting the Islamic State.
  • Turkey and its NATO allies have totally different threat perceptions and goals in Syria's war.
Ali Babacan, a world-renowned economist and Turkey's mild-mannered Deputy Prime Minister,put it realistically in a recent speech: "Public trust in the justice system is in steady decline."

How could it not be? Turkey has finally become a country where prosecutors and law enforcement authorities get indicted rather than indict suspects. The latest episode unveils how Turkey's Islamist government (not-so-) secretly supported the radical Islamists in Syria.

On Jan. 19, 2014, the Turkish gendarmerie command stopped and searched three trucks in southern Turkey, heading for Syria. Accompanying the trucks were Turkish intelligence officers, and the trucks had a bizarre cargo: In the first container, 25-30 missiles or rockets and 10-15 crates loaded with ammunition; in the second, 20-25 missiles or rockets, 20-25 crates of mortar rounds and anti-aircraft ammunition in five or six sacks. The crates had markings in the Cyrillic (Russian) alphabet.

After a brawl, a prosecutor arrested the men and seized the cargo. The search was videotaped by the law enforcement officers.

The local governor rushed to the scene and declared that the trucks were moving upon orders from then Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan (now President). The trucks were handed back to the Turkish intelligence agency, MIT.

One of the drivers testified that the cargo had been loaded onto the trucks from a foreign airplane at Ankara's Esenboga Airport and that "we carried similar loads several times before."



964.jpg

Turkish security forces inspect a truck that was smuggling weapons to Syria, Jan. 19, 2014.


Half a year later, a military prosecutor took charge of the legal proceedings and concluded that "this incident was a military affair." Then came a total media blackout on the mysterious event. Finally, all law enforcement officers who searched the trucks, including the gendarmerie units, were put on trial on charges of "international espionage."

The Turkish government insisted that the weapons were being transported to help Iraqi Turkmen, an ethnic Turkish minority in northern Iraq. But the Turkmen deny receiving any military shipments from Turkey and, on the contrary, claimed that Turkey abandoned them in favor of the Islamic State (IS). Everyone knew who the real recipient of Turkish arms supplies was: the Islamic State.

In early May 2015, the New York Times reported that tens of thousands of kilograms of ammonium nitrate fertilizer, which could be turned into deadly explosives, are being transported over the border from Turkey into IS-controlled sections of Syria.

Indeed, Erdogan's administration jailed the men who wanted to jail the men for transporting arms shipments to the Islamic State jihadists.

A Turkish newspaper, Today's Zaman, published excerpts from the prosecutors' testimonies after their arrest. The excerpts make for interesting reading, especially for anyone who might be thinking that Turkey is part of a Western coalition fighting that Islamic State. The punch line is that some officials in Erdogan's administration had links with IS jihadists and similar organizations in Syria.

With the men delivering arms to the jihadists possibly running around freely, looking for new cargoes to deliver to the jihadists, Turkey detained four prosecutors and a gendarmerie colonel on charges of "attempting to topple or incapacitate the Turkish government through the use of force or coercion and exposing information regarding the security and political activities of the state."

The prosecutor who stopped the trucks said in his testimony: "If the trucks were ... carrying weapons to Syria, this cannot be described as a state secret. A criminal action cannot be described as a state secret." Right? Right.

Further notes from the testimonies:

  • Missile warheads were found in one of the trucks there.
  • A truck was found to have unloaded some ammunition at a border military post ... on Oct. 6-26, 2013, the ammunition had been taken across the border [into Syria], that security footage proved this and that the ammunition was taken to a camp of the hardline militant group Ahrar al-Sham.
  • One of the prosecutors asked: "Does MIT [the Turkish intelligence service] have a duty to transport weapons?"
  • The investigation revealed that the vehicle escorting the trucks was registered in the name of an al-Qaeda member. The prosecutor questioned how intelligence officials could get on a vehicle belonging to an al-Qaeda member.
  • The weapons in question were transported in an illegal way.
The testimonies are spectacular documents revealing how Turkey's "mild" Islamists were -- and probably are -- "fighting" their more savage ideological kin. Turkey and its NATO allies have totally different threat perceptions and goals in Syria's civil war. For the Western flank, the Islamic State and twenty or so similar jihadist groups are a major threat to peace in the region, but for Turkey they, are potential military allies to topple Erdogan's worst regional enemy, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Turkey, which supports the Muslim Brotherhood, would like a Sunni, Muslim Brotherhood-type of rule in Syria after Assad's downfall. To that end, Turkey is currently viewing various jihadist groups in Syria as potential political allies to Islamize Syria exactly along those Sunni, Muslim Brotherhood lines.

Burak Bekdil, based in Ankara, is a Turkish columnist for the Hürriyet Daily and a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.
 
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Turkey: Not-Quite Rule of Law
by Burak Bekdil
May 25, 2015 at 4:00 am


Turkey: Not-Quite Rule of Law

  • The testimonies of the prosecutors make for interesting reading, especially for anyone who might be thinking that Turkey is part of the Western coalition fighting the Islamic State.
  • Turkey and its NATO allies have totally different threat perceptions and goals in Syria's war.
Ali Babacan, a world-renowned economist and Turkey's mild-mannered Deputy Prime Minister,put it realistically in a recent speech: "Public trust in the justice system is in steady decline."

How could it not be? Turkey has finally become a country where prosecutors and law enforcement authorities get indicted rather than indict suspects. The latest episode unveils how Turkey's Islamist government (not-so-) secretly supported the radical Islamists in Syria.

On Jan. 19, 2014, the Turkish gendarmerie command stopped and searched three trucks in southern Turkey, heading for Syria. Accompanying the trucks were Turkish intelligence officers, and the trucks had a bizarre cargo: In the first container, 25-30 missiles or rockets and 10-15 crates loaded with ammunition; in the second, 20-25 missiles or rockets, 20-25 crates of mortar rounds and anti-aircraft ammunition in five or six sacks. The crates had markings in the Cyrillic (Russian) alphabet.

After a brawl, a prosecutor arrested the men and seized the cargo. The search was videotaped by the law enforcement officers.

The local governor rushed to the scene and declared that the trucks were moving upon orders from then Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan (now President). The trucks were handed back to the Turkish intelligence agency, MIT.

One of the drivers testified that the cargo had been loaded onto the trucks from a foreign airplane at Ankara's Esenboga Airport and that "we carried similar loads several times before."



964.jpg

Turkish security forces inspect a truck that was smuggling weapons to Syria, Jan. 19, 2014.


Half a year later, a military prosecutor took charge of the legal proceedings and concluded that "this incident was a military affair." Then came a total media blackout on the mysterious event. Finally, all law enforcement officers who searched the trucks, including the gendarmerie units, were put on trial on charges of "international espionage."

The Turkish government insisted that the weapons were being transported to help Iraqi Turkmen, an ethnic Turkish minority in northern Iraq. But the Turkmen deny receiving any military shipments from Turkey and, on the contrary, claimed that Turkey abandoned them in favor of the Islamic State (IS). Everyone knew who the real recipient of Turkish arms supplies was: the Islamic State.

In early May 2015, the New York Times reported that tens of thousands of kilograms of ammonium nitrate fertilizer, which could be turned into deadly explosives, are being transported over the border from Turkey into IS-controlled sections of Syria.

Indeed, Erdogan's administration jailed the men who wanted to jail the men for transporting arms shipments to the Islamic State jihadists.

A Turkish newspaper, Today's Zaman, published excerpts from the prosecutors' testimonies after their arrest. The excerpts make for interesting reading, especially for anyone who might be thinking that Turkey is part of a Western coalition fighting that Islamic State. The punch line is that some officials in Erdogan's administration had links with IS jihadists and similar organizations in Syria.

With the men delivering arms to the jihadists possibly running around freely, looking for new cargoes to deliver to the jihadists, Turkey detained four prosecutors and a gendarmerie colonel on charges of "attempting to topple or incapacitate the Turkish government through the use of force or coercion and exposing information regarding the security and political activities of the state."

The prosecutor who stopped the trucks said in his testimony: "If the trucks were ... carrying weapons to Syria, this cannot be described as a state secret. A criminal action cannot be described as a state secret." Right? Right.

Further notes from the testimonies:

  • Missile warheads were found in one of the trucks there.
  • A truck was found to have unloaded some ammunition at a border military post ... on Oct. 6-26, 2013, the ammunition had been taken across the border [into Syria], that security footage proved this and that the ammunition was taken to a camp of the hardline militant group Ahrar al-Sham.
  • One of the prosecutors asked: "Does MIT [the Turkish intelligence service] have a duty to transport weapons?"
  • The investigation revealed that the vehicle escorting the trucks was registered in the name of an al-Qaeda member. The prosecutor questioned how intelligence officials could get on a vehicle belonging to an al-Qaeda member.
  • The weapons in question were transported in an illegal way.
The testimonies are spectacular documents revealing how Turkey's "mild" Islamists were -- and probably are -- "fighting" their more savage ideological kin. Turkey and its NATO allies have totally different threat perceptions and goals in Syria's civil war. For the Western flank, the Islamic State and twenty or so similar jihadist groups are a major threat to peace in the region, but for Turkey they, are potential military allies to topple Erdogan's worst regional enemy, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Turkey, which supports the Muslim Brotherhood, would like a Sunni, Muslim Brotherhood-type of rule in Syria after Assad's downfall. To that end, Turkey is currently viewing various jihadist groups in Syria as potential political allies to Islamize Syria exactly along those Sunni, Muslim Brotherhood lines.

Burak Bekdil, based in Ankara, is a Turkish columnist for the Hürriyet Daily and a Fellow at the Middle East Forum.

Why are you so obsessed with us you freak? Are you trying to turn every single one of us against you? Do you want us to turn our guns at Israel? Every single article like this published puts Jews in more danger than before. The more propaganda you publish to demonize us the more likely we will take the problem to your front door. You Israeli Jews better start changing your priorities. There are a lot of cards we can play.
 
Why are you so obsessed with us you freak? Are you trying to turn every single one of us against you -
If you're a Turk why don't you change your flags? Or if you didn't realize what I posted then aren't YOU the person who is blindly obsessed here?
 

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