Everyone is barking on the wrong tree it seems. Pakistan is just a facilitator here, not the party in any shape or form. We are neither a seller or buyer of the Iranian energy. Its between China and Iran. If GCC wants to sell its energy to China, the world biggest energy customer, we in Pakistan are more then happy to facilitate them as well under CPEC framework, and MBS on his visit did actually announce to establish a refinery near Gawadar, followed by the visit of Saudi energy minister on the proposed site. That didn't go far. And now GCC is very much in American/Zionist camp , so if they have decided to be part of American/Zionist camp, its their choice. We have no say in it. If they are willing to ignore the world biggest energy customer, its their own stupidity and Iran is making full advantage of it. Chinese 400 billion investment in Iran, majority of it is in energy sector. Whatever people say, at the end of the day CPEC main goal is to tap into middle east energy sources using Pakistani territory. We have already signed on it, there is no way back now. If America and Israel do decide to bomb Iran, it wont be because to appease GCC, otherwise they would have already done it. It would be to stop Chinese ingress. Goes without saying, there will be sever repercussions for both America and Israel. You have already seen how America was isolated in UN, even abandoned by its own western allies.
China have full access to much of the Middle East through the oceans (Maritime Silk Road):
Much of the Chinese economic activity is concentrated to the East tapping the Maritime Silk Road (port locations). CPEC offers another channel for the same but not a requirement.
Economic activity in the Western Chinese provinces is substantially lacking in comparison because land transit is slow and expensive.
Point is in regards to
how Pakistan can capitalize on CPEC to its advantage without exposing it to a new round of sanctions via dealings with Iran which are prone to international sanctions.
China is an economic powerhouse and can afford to take RISKS through BRI given the span and reach of this initiative. Even if a route or two are sanctioned/suppressed, China can manage through other routes.
Pakistan have a much smaller (struggling) economy and is pinning much hope on CPEC to mitigate this problem. Therefore, recommended Foreign Policy approach is to PLAY SAFE and not take unnecessary risks in the process. Pakistan can convince GCC states to utilize CPEC and contribute to Pakistani economy in this manner - much better than tapping Iran for the needful in the present.
China is offering an alternative routes to Iran and CPEC is not a requirement once again.
As I have repeatedly pointed out in this thread, Pakistan should OBSERVE
how the next American administration will deal with Iran. Perhaps Trump administration will have a second term?
Just play it SAFE for now.
American hostility is more towards China now then Iran.
Would that stop world doing business with each other? I think not.
You have to understand, Pakistan has no future in American camp, infact, as proven in war on terror, it is deadly to the vary existence of Pakistan as a viable state. PMIK has already very openly said that Pakistan economic future is tied with China and there are obvious reasons for it. America is very hostile to Pakistan and its interests everywhere and anywhere. Burying head in the sand is no option for Pakistan. It would be very interesting to see what comes up during Xi visit to Pakistan.
I don't think America will do anything stupid militarily. Economically 100% yes. And to counter that, I have feeling world is going to be divided sooner then later into two parallel economic systems, independent of each other.
This is a very narrow take of things in reality.
1. Pakistan is closely working with USA to address the menace of terrorism in the region. This encompass Afghanistan and FATF considerations.
2. USA is by far the largest EXPORT destination for Pakistani goods.
U.S.-Pakistan Trade Facts Pakistan is currently our 62nd largest goods trading partner with $5.3 billion in total (two way) goods trade during 2013. Goods exports totaled $1.6 billion; Goods imports totaled $3.7 billion. The U.S. goods trade deficit with Pakistan was $2.0 billion in 2013...
ustr.gov
Pakistan’s trade with the United States fell 25.27 percent, from $7.13 billion to $5.33 billion through the first nine months of 2023 when compared to the same period the previous year, according to a WorldCity analysis of latest U.S. Census Bureau data.
www.ustradenumbers.com
Pakistan enjoy TRADE SURPLUS with USA which is a PLUS for Pakistani economy.
Understand that Pakistan is experiencing a massive TRADE DEFICIT with China which is not easy to bridge (CPEC might help mitigate this problem to an extent in the coming years but WE need to do more).
3. Given the fact that Pakistan have a struggling economic outlook, Pakistan is allowed to avail IMF bailout packages from time-to-time to keep things afloat.
USA - Pakistan does not have ideal bilateral relationship (not a smooth ride; many bumps in this route) but it is unwise to discredit this relationship altogether.
Pakistan should continue to engage with USA to its benefit and retain OPTIONS - WE do not have to LOVE each other but WE can continue to WORK with each other in different capacities to mutual benefit in select areas.
Iran will be stupid to shoot on its own feet if it still allow its territory to be used for destabilization of Baluchistan, the ingress point of any future energy pipelines going all the way to China, traversing Pakistan. Accessing world biggest energy market and 400 billion dollar of Chinese investment is at stake here, specially at a time when GCC has already aligned itself with the American/Zionist camp. I think Iranian establishment has now realised what is at stake here and you see gradual decoupling with American lackey India.
Balancing act doesn't mean that Pakistan has to sacrifice regional cohesion and connectivity. Those sitting across the oceans can take a hike tbh. If regional countries are inter dependant on each other for their own economic benefits, you will see these proxy games coming to an end sooner then later. If America and its lackeys have issues with it, then so be it. No bullying will work or had work with Pakistan. Infact it has sever consequences, as evident in Afghanistan.
See above.
Both China and Iran are willing to establish multiple routes for bilateral dealings - CPEC being one of them but not imperative.
I am all for regional cohesion and connectivity but I keep my eyes OPEN and understand realities of Pakistan very well.
Afghanistan is a landlocked country - much easier for Pakistan to influence courtesy of the Taliban factor. Situation of Iran is different in comparison.
Things Pakistan can do to improve its economic situation in the long-term:
1. Avoid Cold War.
2. Strive for bilateral relationships with MULTIPLE countries around the World.
3. Continue to engage with USA to whatever ends possible.
4. Be mindful of global flashpoints and play it safe.
Thank you.
