Opinion: what's the predicted out come of current Khan - military stand off?!

[Krayon]

I think IK will be kept in prison but he may not be killed as this would be an unnecessary blame to bear. He may be put out of political scenario for some time. But he would be kept as an back up option to control other parties.

I hope people vote PTI to some strong or healthy position in coming elections.

 

[ziaulislam]

Because they couldn't keep him out,, even in our fake democracy he simply is too popular and had too much people voting for him

Fundamentally
1- Establishment was 50-50 on PTI and thought they would just in reality be a worthless party like PPP or PMLN

2- They didn't help PTI get power, the limited PTI's power by rigging elections, manipulating democracy so PTI couldn't rule or get a majority that mattered, that meant PTI had a shaky coalition, establishment then supported "Controlled" politicians so if PTI stepped out of line they get the rug pulled out from underneath them


3- IMPORTANT
IMRAN KHAN GETS TOO INDEPENDENT, GETS PAKISTAN THROUGH COVID, STARTS MAKING FOREIGN POLICY DECISIONS INDEPENDENTLY.
STARTS TO TALK BACK AND ASSERT HIS AUTHORITY AS PM

Imran Khan is too popular would win elections and get majority, and with them being in government, IK and PTI had the power to keep a eye on rigging

Thus the Establishment, military, PDM parties, waders, sardars, elite all the trash and scum of society
Basically colluded to get IK and PTI out of power and destroyed, before any elections


This is what happened,
There will be no more PTI or IK

PDM/Establishment is now in charge
We don't have a democracy

And nothing will change, because change means a loss of power for them and the elite

They will have fake elections, it's already agreed that billo rani or another lota will be PM and we will have another 5 years of utter beghairati

PPP rule Sindh
PMLN in Punjab
Mullah diesel and ANP in KP
Sardars in Balochistan

As long as they get to keep their little kingdoms, everything will be fine

I disagree with you here.
I think there was a lot of manipulation in punjab I doubt PMLN had that much support

Definitely they are more popular then PMLN because of 1/3 disgruntling PMLN supporters but they will come back, they always do.

Imran Khan was hero of current die hard patwaris who are in their 40s. Those patwaris were once imran Khan supporters in late 1990s/early 2000s but now understand the reality of benefits of punjab specific rather then a national party

 

[General Dong]

I would not be surprised if the bastard duffers already slow poisoned IK

 

[Neelo]

Imran Khan was hero of current die hard patwaris who are in their 40s. Those patwaris were once imran Khan supporters in late 1990s/early 2000s but now understand the reality of benefits of punjab specific rather then a national party

PMLN is far from a Punjab specific party….they tried that Jaag Punjabi Jaag BS in the 90s and miserably failed.

Jaag Chor Jaag is the mantra now.

 

[PradoTLC]

This may end three ways
1-Either Khan is killed or dies in jail or comit suicide. Given his narcissistic personality disorder this is likely the outcome

2-Either he makes a deal(anyone can be broken) this the moto of ISI

3- or he wins: highly unlikely as I pointed out since last year; unless there is internal help or muting in army

In case of scenario 3 the real question is how will he deal with army men who killed several 100 of his workers??

Would he let them go or go hasnia wajid way(the right way) and hang those killers.

The ISI believes he will go after them so there is no way he will be allowed.

Elections isn't going to happen transparently unless USA mediation gives grantee.

Even in that case if he makes a move he will be disbanded if he doesn't people wont be Happy. People want blood..

Hence why some here argue scenario 1 where he dies is best outcome.

Now why don't I have an option he survives for 5 yrs because that's not what ISI wants they want to break him.

So 80 yrs person can't survive in jail 8x10 cell if they can't break him he will die.

Most of my friends are betting he will make a deal but I pointed out narcissistic behavior people rarely make a deal (just like Bhutto) for them the legacy is more important.

What's weird is the same people who think he will make a deal agree that he is a narcissist or FASCIST

However, IMO, Khan like Bhutto isn't going to make deal. He isn't like nawaz sharif or even benazir who were cool headed comparatively.

Which begs the question why did ISI let him take power in the first place!

PS:
Note that as I predicted before (and was told I am an idiot) there isn't going to be peacefull or peaceless mass sit in that will force the govt.

Khan barely can bring in few 100 people form KP area for sit in (as we saw in zaman park)

I am hoping for a general Zia kind of event ..
PDM plus all its puppet masters are given a great idea by Mullah diesel to have a vacation in Greece in one PIA plane flown by an Indian pilot..

 

[N.Siddiqui]

This is the outcome, there won't be a final outcome, is a continuous process.

Journey is the destination.

People have woken up to the reality, the awareness amongst the Awam was not there before. IK has done his job, won the hearts and minds., the change in the system will take time.

 

[ziaulislam]

This is the outcome, there won't be a final outcome, is a continuous process.

Journey is the destination.

People have woken up to the reality, the awareness amongst the Awam was not there before. IK has done his job, won the hearts and mind., the change in the system will take time.

Disagree
People wake up and go to sleep regularly
That's what the history has taught us and history always repeats itself

 

[Meengla]

Most of my friends are betting he will make a deal but I pointed out narcissistic behavior people rarely make a deal (just like Bhutto) for them the legacy is more important.

What's weird is the same people who think he will make a deal agree that he is a narcissist or FASCIST

I am one of those who think he's going to make a 'deal' in 'larger national interest' and for his 'party workers'. Yes, he is a Narcist but a few months of real prison is too much for him, grandstanding notwithstanding.

And I wish he makes saner choices going forward for Pakistan and for his own party's sake. His last chance was through Shah Mehmood Qureishi a few weeks ago when SMQ visited Imran after being released. I think it was suggested that Imran takes a backseat for a while and let others lead PTI and lower the political temperature. Imran was too full of himself then so he refused.

BUT.. read in between the line what he said in his last video on the eve of his latest imprisonment: He was clearly asking the military AND the 'PDM' to talk to him for greater national interest. He only did so when it became apparent no help from anywhere is coming: No mutiny in the military, no Chief Justice, no foreign lobbies, no workers on the street.

In short, he is open for an NRO. Don't put too much faith into high slogans or 'I will give them a surprise' blah blah.

 

[ghazi52]

,.,.
Pakistani caretaker cabinet has taken oath. Here are portfolios:
— Jalil Abbas Jilani - Foreign Affairs
— Sarfraz Bugti - Internal Affairs
— Dr. Shamshad Akhtar - Finance
— Gen (r) Anwar Ahmad - Defense
— Murtaza Solangi - Information
— Gohar Ejaz - Industry
— Muhammad Ali - Energy
— Dr Nadeem Jan - Health
— Ahmad Irfan - Law
— Dr. Umar Saif - Information Technology
— Mishal Yasin Malik (SAPM)
— Khalil George - Human Rights
— Captain (Retd) Shahid Ashraf - Communication (Railway / Postal / Port / Maritime Affairs)

 

[Krayon]

,.,.
Pakistani caretaker cabinet has taken oath. Here are portfolios:
— Jalil Abbas Jilani - Foreign Affairs
— Sarfraz Bugti - Internal Affairs
— Dr. Shamshad Akhtar - Finance
— Gen (r) Anwar Ahmad - Defense
— Murtaza Solangi - Information
— Gohar Ejaz - Industry
— Muhammad Ali - Energy
— Dr Nadeem Jan - Health
— Ahmad Irfan - Law
— Dr. Umar Saif - Information Technology
— Mishal Yasin Malik (SAPM)
— Khalil George - Human Rights
— Captain (Retd) Shahid Ashraf - Communication (Railway / Postal / Port / Maritime Affairs)

Apparently this looks like a real hardcore establishment backed cabinet and will follow their wishes.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Predicted outcome

Lanat on Pakistan Army

 

[ziaulislam]

I am one of those who think he's going to make a 'deal' in 'larger national interest' and for his 'party workers'. Yes, he is a Narcist but a few months of real prison is too much for him, grandstanding notwithstanding.

And I wish he makes saner choices going forward for Pakistan and for his own party's sake. His last chance was through Shah Mehmood Qureishi a few weeks ago when SMQ visited Imran after being released. I think it was suggested that Imran takes a backseat for a while and let others lead PTI and lower the political temperature. Imran was too full of himself then so he refused.

BUT.. read in between the line what he said in his last video on the eve of his latest imprisonment: He was clearly asking the military AND the 'PDM' to talk to him for greater national interest. He only did so when it became apparent no help from anywhere is coming: No mutiny in the military, no Chief Justice, no foreign lobbies, no workers on the street.

In short, he is open for an NRO. Don't put too much faith into high slogans or 'I will give them a surprise' blah blah.

Well we will know in a few months
Mean while the deal chances are dead as several other leaders are now arrested including shah mehmood

I am simply analyzing personalities not slogans

The only trump card they have is his wife. That's probably going to happen next. She is going to prison

Regardless 2024 elections are going to happen without PTi since party will be banned or replaced with PTI-P (pervaiz Khattack

So My guess is JI if allowed to participate will win the elections

It may be a mix achar but Ji will take this opportunity to become largest party

Real prison vs fake prison

 

[KaiserX]

You've incomplete option set.

5. Rule of law finally lives, gives Khan freedom to contest elections.
6. Pakistanis malign Army to a point where they decide to back off.
7. Army runs out of options, having tried everything fails and returns to IK for reconciliation.
8. Pakistan's economy worsens further, there's no hope and chaos is imminent. Fearing things getting out of control, Army goes back to barracks.
9. Khan is kept in Jail, things keep boiling without going in any direction. Trying to bring some stability, army gives control back to people - and IK wins and comes back.

Very optimistic scenario.

If history is a lesson + current general mood of pakistanis who are not willing to come out and protest en mass. Heres most likely scenario.

- IK is kept in jail few months longer
- Deal is made to release IK but he will continue to be under house arrest
- PTI will continue to be banned under the coming elections

Elections go to a hodgepodge of different parties ie pmln, ppp, ipp, etc…

Shehbaz Sharif returns as PM. Infact the current cabinet are just seat warmers for his inevitable return.

Neither Nawaz Sharif nor Mariyum Nawaz have 0 chance of becoming PMs. Nawaz has backstabbed the establishment far too many times. Albeit his cases will be dropped and he will be the “main kingmaker” from Raiwind. Army is content with their “Yes” man SS returning to power albeit as a coalition government which suits them.

After elections IK will be released from house arrest and will likely become some sort of opposition leader outside of parliament or is given an option to go abroad.

Overall army is full steam motion with its current plan

 

[Samlee]

If number 1 happens It's going to be open season on the boyz they can forget about 9th may and may worry about a potential 16th december

 

[ziaulislam]

The only way he will make a deal is though his wife. That's the key

But some how politicans don't want to make precedence where wives are fair deal.

Well I will tell them they are, they already crossed that line with PTI other leaders and workers

So next time when maryum and bilawal take a fight family is fair deal

Very optimistic scenario.

If history is a lesson + current general mood of pakistanis who are not willing to come out and protest en mass. Heres most likely scenario.

- IK is kept in jail few months longer
- Deal is made to release IK but he will continue to be under house arrest
- PTI will continue to be banned under the coming elections

Elections go to a hodgepodge of different parties ie pmln, ppp, ipp, etc…

Shehbaz Sharif returns as PM. Infact the current cabinet are just seat warmers for his inevitable return.

Neither Nawaz Sharif nor Mariyum Nawaz habe 0 chance of becoming PMs. Army is content with their “Yes” man returning to power albeit as a coalition government which suits them.

After elections IK will be released from house arrest and will likely become some sort of opposition leader outside of parliament or is given an option to go abroad.

Overall army is full steam motion with its current plan

History shows IK
1- either dies
2- breaks make a deal
3- remains in arrest for next 10 yrs like other leaders bacha Khan etc