COAS comes back from a visit of USA and the POTUS gives out such a statement against Pakistan nuclear weapons, would this be called aligned interest of COAS/Pak Army with USA or conflict of interests of both entities.
POTUS wasn’t referring the weapons being unsafe as much as the nation having a failure of cohesion. It didn’t seemed like a statement against an individual per say, but institutions for failure to govern. PTI walking out of parliament and majority of the general public not accepting the current government makes any agreements with the US pointless, as the next government with a mana date can just reverse the agreements. Hence, why nothing should be agreed unless PTI indicates they won’t reverse it.
So in that way it seems Pakistan’s polity is in paralysis, or as Biden says lacks “cohesion”.
Biden didn’t say the country is dangerous, the nation, the Qoum/the people are dangerous. So the only way forward is a solution had the support of the majority of the people, a real democratically elected government.
Even if the current government has legitimacy by the rules of Pakistan’s constitution, the way they came to power delegitimized them in the eyes of the people and with Biden’s statement, to an extent in the eyes of the west.
btw, someone should go back and count the popular vote in support of the PTI and compare it to the total of the rest.
Second, forming a “PDM” also delegitimized all the other parties as they look like they have been forced together to counter a popular PTI.
Considering PTI wasn’t anti-military, a constructive solution would be for PTI leadership and the establishment to iron out how to achieve goals without endangering national interests unbeknowningly. The same briefing should be given to all the other political parties as well, and have lay out real actionable platform, timeframes to get rid of incompetent and corrupt politicians, and outlining which kind of professional experts/managers the politicians need to actually implement their platforms.
Then let the people vote on it. Give people real options and fresh faces with competent track records.
Second, Biden’s statement; the Russia with reference to China with reference to India with Reference to Pakistan lays out the
regional balance as the US understands it. If anything, this shows the US (or at least Biden) understands the challenges the Pak Military has to operate in, and shares that view. Ambassador Bloom’s visit to what he called AJK and the German Foreign minister bringing up Kashmir when alongside the current foreign minister, shows that west balances India and Pakistan considering the aforementioned regional balance. Pakistan needs to capitalize on this and form a consensus in which the state looks cohesive and functional and prosperous so the west to can work with Pakistan for their own prosperity.
There is also the perception of cohesion. Pakistan needs to rebuild its institutions, strengthen rule of law to be seen as impartial and above the fray. Also, very importantly Pakistan needs to rebuild its soft power it use to have a nascent form in the 50s and early 60s. There is a lot of talent in the arts, and a vibrant cultural scene coupled with a stable and growing economy can build up the perception of cohesion in as little as a decade.
Pakistan’s industries are so behind international averages and the population is large enough, that local demand can support a lot of FDI. A unified polity can be savvy enough to shape the message to attract that potential FDI, but also require agreements to make most of what is produced exports. With the window opened by the Russian war being finite, the establishment did well to start shipping artillery shells, but need to move quickly to get a political resolution to the satisfaction of the majority of the people at home. The floods are a opportunity to pivot the national image, nor to “beg” but to pivot to attract FDI to become climate resilient. Win-win for all.
On the issue of the statement of the German foreign minister’s statement, Europe needs growth to prosper. For Europe, a hostile Russia and Iran as well as a rising China, there is a need to reach new untapped resources in Central Asia that can fuel their growth just sitting there. Heck, if Pakistan can get its act together a plan can be worked out to get Reko-Diq started and just those resources are something the world wants access to (countries are looking at increasing gold reserves to hedge against falling currencies). A stable region would also make the west feel their 20 year effort was not for naught.
Pakistan is too important a country to allow the status quo to continue as is. Regardless of Pakistan not getting a mention in the current NSS (US’ National security strategy) its still on POTUS’ mind due to its location in a vitally important region. BRI goes through our region, so even the pivot to Asia depends on continued productive relations in our region. Russia and Iran strategic rear is in our region. And productive relations require local partners that have legitimate democratically elected governments in the eyes of their people and the rest of the world.
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