ANALYSIS: Pakistan in peril ahead of 63rd birthday - Monsters and Critics
ANALYSIS: Pakistan in peril ahead of 63rd birthday
By Nadeem Sarwar Aug 13, 2010, 14:25 GMT
Islamabad - When Pakistan marks its 63rd birthday on Saturday, there will be few celebrations. The official and private buildings along the capital's main Constitutional Avenue will not be illuminated and the traditional ceremony to mark independence from British rule at the president's residence has been cancelled.
A quarter of the country's land has been submerged by floods and millions are taking shelter on whatever dry ground they can find, waiting for aid that is arriving slowly.
With 14 million displaced and over 1,300 killed so far, the floods pose a great threat to the impoverished country.
But these are not the only troubles Pakistan is facing. Its cities and villages have seen devastation at the hands of Islamist suicide bombers, separatists and rival ethnic groups.
An ailing economy, prolonged power-cuts in summer and spiralling prices had stripped many of the country's 160 million people of hope even before the floods.
'The future was uncertain even before floods and the floods have only aggravated the overall situation,' said Hassan Askari Rizvi, a political analyst. 'The future will remain uncertain as most of the people have no realization about the real issues faced by Pakistan.'
One of these is the threat that Taliban militants pose to nuclear-armed Pakistan. Their suicide bombers have struck official and civilian targets at will, killing more than 3,500 people and injuring many more since 2007. A large area remains under their control in the north-west.
Even though recent military offensives have put the militants on the back foot in some areas, the militants have discovered new areas to spread their influence.
With deadly attacks in Lahore, the capital of Pakistan's most populous and prosperous province, their collaborators have partially suspended the usual cultural activities of music festivals, theatre and fashion shows in recent months.
Amid the Taliban onslaught, the military remains unsure how to deal with them. The main dilemma for army strategists is whether it should still consider them a strategic asset to preserve its interests against old-rival India in Afghanistan or treat them as an enemy of the state.
Documents revealed by the WikiLeaks website last month showed that Pakistani intelligence was supporting the Afghan Taliban under a double game it has played since it joined the United States in the fight against terrorism in 2001.
Confusion at the policy level also prevails when it comes to handling the ethnic violence that has disrupted crucial economic activity in the major financial hub of Karachi.
Gunmen from rival Urdu- and Pashtu-speaking ethnic groups roamed the city of 1.6 million people, killing each other last week when the floods were ravaging the north-western part of the country.
Billions of rupees were lost in four days of riots that came when the country is relying for its economic survival on aid from Western countries and loans from the International Monetary Fund and other organizations.
Baluchistan is a region rich in minerals but thousands of tribesmen have taken to the mountains and are fighting for autonomy.
'Is there anything to celebrate in this country?' said Malik Sabir, a security guard in the capital Islamabad.
'Did we get independence from the Englishmen so people kill their families because they cannot provide them with food and clothes?' he said, referring to recent incidents of collective suicide by deprived families in Punjab.
Much criticism has been aimed at the country's civilian government for its slow response to the floods. The agricultural sector, which feeds Pakistan and also makes up a major portion of its exports, has suffered losses of around 2.9 billion dollars.
President Asif Ali Zardari came under fire for not cancelling a foreign trip when the tragedy was unfolding. He tried to fend off the criticism by saying that the visits to France and Britain helped him to get international aid for flood victims, a claim that most Pakistanis laughed off.
For many this is a betrayal of the hopes of a public that struggled in 2007 and 2008 to end the nine-year reign of former military ruler Pervez Musharraf and restore democracy.
'I see no difference in dictatorship and democracy. Both have no cure for this country,' Sabir said.
Analysts, however, said that civilian leaders, many of whom spent time in exile or prison under military rule, need more time to improve their capabilities. A working democracy would enhance the sense of accountability and discourage the existing culture of corruption.
'Democracy is the only hope for the future of this country. When the democratic institutions are strengthened and they are functional, problems will start to resolve,' the analyst Rizvi said.
