aliyusuf
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True.
Superb thread.
Sir Jee Mangus, we are fortunate to have you with us on the forum.
Thanks to brother @StormBreaker for letting me know of this thread.
WW3 warning: US Senator warns China to be 'biggest threat' to world 'for next century'
- Thread starter Mangus Ortus Novem
- Start date
Superb thread.
Sir Jee Mangus, we are fortunate to have you with us on the forum.
Thanks to brother @StormBreaker for letting me know of this thread.
Blacklight
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What is the solution?
Forget the win win scenario, that broke down as soon as Covid-19 hit. The forces pushing the US and China towards a conflict are too strong. The US is in a race against time to confront China. The longer the US hesitates, the more its inherent advantages erode. In China's case, they are forced to both respond to increasing American aggression yet they need to hold off total confrontation for as long as possible while they build their domestic wealth and innovation capabilities, which when fully developed will dwarf the US and in fact surpass that of the entire West combined. A frightening thought in Washington.
So the game is on. The US will be breaking off economic relations, then political relations with China. It will escalate hostilities, first trying containment, then if that does not stymie China's progress, we may see a hot war. Taiwan will be a major pawn to play here. China on the other hand will play defense largely but rush to expand its tech and innovation capabilities while rushing to institute the digital Yuan to break free from the dollar's dominance.
Russia will largely side with China as it is in their self interest to break American dominance. The Anglo world and most of Western Europe will largely be on the American side.
Most of the other states of the world will be opportunists and will have a finger in the air seeing how the wind blows. If the West seems to be on the cusp of victory in containing China, most of the other countries will curry favor to the US and seek to stay within the periphery of the Western universe. However if the winds dictate China is gaining the advantage, much of the world will likely stay relatively neutral and maintain good relations with China will ignoring Washington's pleas for their cooperation in containing China.
So the game is on. The US will be breaking off economic relations, then political relations with China. It will escalate hostilities, first trying containment, then if that does not stymie China's progress, we may see a hot war. Taiwan will be a major pawn to play here. China on the other hand will play defense largely but rush to expand its tech and innovation capabilities while rushing to institute the digital Yuan to break free from the dollar's dominance.
Russia will largely side with China as it is in their self interest to break American dominance. The Anglo world and most of Western Europe will largely be on the American side.
Most of the other states of the world will be opportunists and will have a finger in the air seeing how the wind blows. If the West seems to be on the cusp of victory in containing China, most of the other countries will curry favor to the US and seek to stay within the periphery of the Western universe. However if the winds dictate China is gaining the advantage, much of the world will likely stay relatively neutral and maintain good relations with China will ignoring Washington's pleas for their cooperation in containing China.
Mangus Ortus Novem
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The Brentwood Agreement was, in effect, a dismantling of the EuropeanEmpires and bringing in a Unified System..replacing the Sterling.
FDR, perhaps, had more benign vision of creating a NewDeal for the former colonies... but...then... well...
The US gave the UK Loan and ended Sterling as the Global Reserve Currency.
The Brentwood Event essentially consolidated disseparate empires into a SingleEmpire led by the US and Run on DollarSystem with IMF and the WorldBank as policy enforcers.
Stalin got his SovietEmpire and America got the FreeWorldEmpire.
Both happy for a while.... till battles for resources started and proxies fought in the KillingFields of Asia, Afria and SouthAmerica.
Gual wanted FrenchGold back...Nixon said No-Can't-Tough-This.... Kessinger gave birth to PetrolDollar... and the Rest is History.
China in this time broke off from Soviets. It made sure that the US couldn't have a border with it.. KoreanWar... VietNamWar.
Behind the GreatWall China did keep on with GDP Growth year-on-year basis. Discerning/curious one can do legwork and validate.
Despite the GreatFamine stories in the FreeWorldEmpire press... it was the weather pattern that cause the crop failures...and it was also the typical Chiense discipline and execution that prepared at country level and saved lives.
Just a comparative baseline... in the same period more people died in India...than by the GreatFamine... Data!
After parting ways with the Soviets, Maoism did both good and bad for China... GreatLeapForward...the purges... CulturalRevolution... but China did develop a solid foundaiton of an industrial base...even in its isolation.... technological backward...but an industrial base nevertheless!
After initial RevolutionaryZeal the Moaism in later years did become more restrained and focused inward.
The Sino-US Tango was a Win-Win Deal between the Leader of the FreeWorldEmpire and the CommunistChina.
And the US started helping China in needed technology as well...keeping the USSR off its balance!!!
Machetting through the Tall Bambooz of History... in practice we had a rather neat arrangement for the FreeWorldEmpire ... which was busy Financialising Everything.... EconomicHitmen everywhere to trying to End History....
We had a Pyramid of US-led CombinedWest at the Top... Japan, SouthKorea, HongKong and Taiwan at the second tier and the Thrid Tier The Rest.
Globalisation was/is not for the benefit of the low wagged countries... it was/is Financialisation of HumanLabourCommdity.
For 400yrs and certainly past 200yrs the TechnoFeudalHierachy was/is sole preserve of the West... Now headed by the US.
Japan tried to challenge this and got smacked pretty good... and is now part of the 'System' ...not an IndependentActor.
Russia is practically handicapped and needs China to survive. China!
What China did was to make it self Critical into the GlobalSupplyChain of Everything.
HongKong could take care of financial side... Shanghai was building up quietly...learning from HSBC and others...
The Chinese are new to the Game of Banking/Financialising... so they have been extra cautious...but it is also Cultural trait....apart from gambling!
The Idea that a LabourCommodity of a 1.4Bln people will be there to produce stuff that the CombinedWest need and can print money to pay for it... was a Great Idea!
But the Chinese being a longest existing CivilisationState had other plans.
They invested heavily in education...starting from Mao's time...and kept producing STEM graduates... in every field that they thought is critical for becoming the MiddleKingdom once again.
In the last 30yrs the IndustrialBase of China has reached a stage that equals to and some areas surpasses the CombinedWest altogther...and having a population of 1.4Bln ..Chinese firms have a CaptiveMarket as well...
But China doesn't have the Right to Print Dollars.
Only the US can print Dollars.
And printed it has. Never in History has so much MoneyCreated as in the never-ending Bailouts by the Fed. And yet there is no Inflation ...interest rate 0%... Fed can even go negative... and still the DollarSystem is intact. This is Power!
The US simply wants the DollarSystem to last this century. Logical from the US perspective. Why not!!!
China can never become the MiddleKingdom if it remains tied to the DollarySystem which also a WeaponisedFinance ...bigger than Nukes!
Ask Russia! Ask Iran. Ask anyone who has challenged the FreeWorldEmpire!!!!
With BRI ... China is creating a parallel Universe to DollarySystem... a kinda YuanSystem... DigitalYuanSystem to be precise.
When Japan became the number 2 economy...it could never challenge the DollarSystem ...not because it is a protectorate of America but simply it doesn't have the CriticalMinimumMass to challenge the 'System'.
Why are the former ColonialMasters so worried about the 'DebtTrap' of AfricanCountries....?
And what did these African countries had before the ChinaOpening up to the World?
Cocao prices/market fell in the 70s... farmers got smacked... even when on the Tradding in the Stockmarket or Futures... prices for the Cocao rose... the farmers didn't get to see rise in prices... PerfectSystem!!!
China has basically now upset the System... simply because it has more than enough CriticalMass ... a very large pool of high qualified/skilled workers and a StableState...which is HighFunctioningState!
HongKong. HongKong.
This idea of decoupling is NOT new... Obama years are filled with many initiatives and actions... highlighting the US march to retard China's advance. AsiaPivot ... AsiaPacific Prosperity.... even before Obama Bush Jr.
Mr. Trump: China!
The only difference from previous POUTSz is that Mr. Trump is politically Incorrect. For the rest he is not doing anything original or new... the process is older.
Now the Euro is coming under immense pressure...
ECB is trying to find a work-around against the German ConstituitionalCourt Ruling... it needs GermanCentralBank to buy distressed assets.... ECB is going for QE like never before.
Fed already is looking at $10Trillion on its AssetSheet/BalanceSheet ...before this year leaves us.... too much liquidity ... banks are not lending but trading on the Stockexchange... InvestmentBanking!
The Iflated Asset Values are just going up and up... BondYields...well, let us not talk about that...
Stagflation?
Inflation?
Depression?
Nothing of the sort?
The CentralBanks of the System are Making their own Market Financial Theory every day...
In an odd twist... China has become a Capitalist and the CombinedWest has become StateDrivenCapitalSocialist...bailling out Too-Big-To-Fail since the DotComBuggle bust time....
Billionaires become even more bloated with Asset Price Inflation... millions of jobless...but the StockMarket is moving up and up.... MoneyCreation is Magic!
SemiCondutors are not going to stop the Chinese advance... it will delay it a bit as @Paul2 and other knowledgable Chinese memeber here have highlighted.
It will Force China to be not Lazy!
BRI is not about roads or bridges or trains... BRI is a System... infant... not even started yet...and its not about exporting excess capabity.... it is about Sinofication of the Global Financial Architecture.
Not to destroy the DollarSystem...but to Incorporate the DollarSystem.
What is amazing and required better study...is that the PRC has set NO target for its GDP...instead it is going to focus on 7 Stablities!
Decoupling is needed by both China and the US.. only the US is hurrying it to have the initiative!
IndoPacificCommand ... and for the last ten years of massive Narrative Construction of the CombinedWest around India... as Rising Global Power... and whatnot...
Modi's Huggomacy squeezing the air out of every Western leader.... the pampering/propping/aiding in every single way...has not propelled the ModiRegime to deliver the results...
If India wants $500Bln annual trade with the US then India shall have to do a lot of things...including becoming the FrontLineState against China.
PLA is camping in Ladakh... and it is NOT about that Indians built some infrastructure. The Chinese press is dead quiet about this... Why?
HongKong. HongKong.
As always HongKong was a Middleman between the FreeWorldEmpire and China... but of late it was also a key node of moneylaundering and Capital Flight from China...
The Hybridwar played out on the HongKong streets was rather impressive...NOT because of its ColourRevolution Blueprint...but because of the patience shown by the PRC....
Was HongKong part of some behind-the-doors negotiations...and protests were the leverage? We shall not know!
For now the annoucements by Mr. Trump regarding HongKong or banning/deporting the Chinese students ... or 'sanctions'... were all expected... so no surprise there.
However, this will put pressure on the International Yuan trade ....
PBC can lower the value of Yuan again...but it cann't do too much consider the integeration of ASEAN into Sinofication/DigitalYuan.
What appears clear that there is going to be alot of MediaWars... SouthChinaSea 'stand-off' ....
Taiwan will flirt with declaring with Independence....
Tibet will become the forefront and so will be XinJiang...
Alot of resolutions, Bills and sanctions... already prepared....
The US will squeez China on every turn...
WeaponisedFinance is bigger/worst than Nukes!
What could be China's CounterStrategies?
What are PolicyInstruements that China can use to sustain the pressure?
We must not overlook the critical importance of ASEAN/EastAsia as the most productive region on the Planet...and its further growth necessary for the Continuation of the DollarSystem.
DigitalDollar coming?
Soviets were Russians... a known quantity...and were a low productivity empire... in every aspect.
China is not USSR. So this ColdWar3.0 is anything we have seen in the past.
Only the TechnologicalStrong, Smart and Patient is going to win this ColdWar!
For a BemusedObserver ... a rather thrilling scene.... twice in a lifetime! Bonus!!!
Mangus
@sinait @tower9 @Blacklight @PanzerKiel @Mentee @Ace of Spades @masterchief_mirza @N.Siddiqui @Signalian @jaibi @BHarwana @Foxtrot Alpha @PakSword @SIPRA @Verve @Reddington @dbc @Deino @KAL-EL
@Slav Defence PakBrother mine, the Game of Chicken Thesis is validated again...as we have seen that the US/Iran agreed on the PM of Iraq.... working together on Afghanistan...and those tankers well...they passed... Muk-Muka!!! I would like to have your critique on the GreatDecoupling... which is also going to affect Pakistan in more ways than one... since this is going to unfold... we need to study it and chronicle it...if you could make it a sticky thread... would be wonderful!
FDR, perhaps, had more benign vision of creating a NewDeal for the former colonies... but...then... well...
The US gave the UK Loan and ended Sterling as the Global Reserve Currency.
The Brentwood Event essentially consolidated disseparate empires into a SingleEmpire led by the US and Run on DollarSystem with IMF and the WorldBank as policy enforcers.
Stalin got his SovietEmpire and America got the FreeWorldEmpire.
Both happy for a while.... till battles for resources started and proxies fought in the KillingFields of Asia, Afria and SouthAmerica.
Gual wanted FrenchGold back...Nixon said No-Can't-Tough-This.... Kessinger gave birth to PetrolDollar... and the Rest is History.
China in this time broke off from Soviets. It made sure that the US couldn't have a border with it.. KoreanWar... VietNamWar.
Behind the GreatWall China did keep on with GDP Growth year-on-year basis. Discerning/curious one can do legwork and validate.
Despite the GreatFamine stories in the FreeWorldEmpire press... it was the weather pattern that cause the crop failures...and it was also the typical Chiense discipline and execution that prepared at country level and saved lives.
Just a comparative baseline... in the same period more people died in India...than by the GreatFamine... Data!
After parting ways with the Soviets, Maoism did both good and bad for China... GreatLeapForward...the purges... CulturalRevolution... but China did develop a solid foundaiton of an industrial base...even in its isolation.... technological backward...but an industrial base nevertheless!
After initial RevolutionaryZeal the Moaism in later years did become more restrained and focused inward.
The Sino-US Tango was a Win-Win Deal between the Leader of the FreeWorldEmpire and the CommunistChina.
And the US started helping China in needed technology as well...keeping the USSR off its balance!!!
Machetting through the Tall Bambooz of History... in practice we had a rather neat arrangement for the FreeWorldEmpire ... which was busy Financialising Everything.... EconomicHitmen everywhere to trying to End History....
We had a Pyramid of US-led CombinedWest at the Top... Japan, SouthKorea, HongKong and Taiwan at the second tier and the Thrid Tier The Rest.
Globalisation was/is not for the benefit of the low wagged countries... it was/is Financialisation of HumanLabourCommdity.
For 400yrs and certainly past 200yrs the TechnoFeudalHierachy was/is sole preserve of the West... Now headed by the US.
Japan tried to challenge this and got smacked pretty good... and is now part of the 'System' ...not an IndependentActor.
Russia is practically handicapped and needs China to survive. China!
What China did was to make it self Critical into the GlobalSupplyChain of Everything.
HongKong could take care of financial side... Shanghai was building up quietly...learning from HSBC and others...
The Chinese are new to the Game of Banking/Financialising... so they have been extra cautious...but it is also Cultural trait....apart from gambling!
The Idea that a LabourCommodity of a 1.4Bln people will be there to produce stuff that the CombinedWest need and can print money to pay for it... was a Great Idea!
But the Chinese being a longest existing CivilisationState had other plans.
They invested heavily in education...starting from Mao's time...and kept producing STEM graduates... in every field that they thought is critical for becoming the MiddleKingdom once again.
In the last 30yrs the IndustrialBase of China has reached a stage that equals to and some areas surpasses the CombinedWest altogther...and having a population of 1.4Bln ..Chinese firms have a CaptiveMarket as well...
But China doesn't have the Right to Print Dollars.
Only the US can print Dollars.
And printed it has. Never in History has so much MoneyCreated as in the never-ending Bailouts by the Fed. And yet there is no Inflation ...interest rate 0%... Fed can even go negative... and still the DollarSystem is intact. This is Power!
The US simply wants the DollarSystem to last this century. Logical from the US perspective. Why not!!!
China can never become the MiddleKingdom if it remains tied to the DollarySystem which also a WeaponisedFinance ...bigger than Nukes!
Ask Russia! Ask Iran. Ask anyone who has challenged the FreeWorldEmpire!!!!
With BRI ... China is creating a parallel Universe to DollarySystem... a kinda YuanSystem... DigitalYuanSystem to be precise.
When Japan became the number 2 economy...it could never challenge the DollarSystem ...not because it is a protectorate of America but simply it doesn't have the CriticalMinimumMass to challenge the 'System'.
Why are the former ColonialMasters so worried about the 'DebtTrap' of AfricanCountries....?
And what did these African countries had before the ChinaOpening up to the World?
Cocao prices/market fell in the 70s... farmers got smacked... even when on the Tradding in the Stockmarket or Futures... prices for the Cocao rose... the farmers didn't get to see rise in prices... PerfectSystem!!!
China has basically now upset the System... simply because it has more than enough CriticalMass ... a very large pool of high qualified/skilled workers and a StableState...which is HighFunctioningState!
HongKong. HongKong.
This idea of decoupling is NOT new... Obama years are filled with many initiatives and actions... highlighting the US march to retard China's advance. AsiaPivot ... AsiaPacific Prosperity.... even before Obama Bush Jr.
Mr. Trump: China!
The only difference from previous POUTSz is that Mr. Trump is politically Incorrect. For the rest he is not doing anything original or new... the process is older.
Now the Euro is coming under immense pressure...
ECB is trying to find a work-around against the German ConstituitionalCourt Ruling... it needs GermanCentralBank to buy distressed assets.... ECB is going for QE like never before.
Fed already is looking at $10Trillion on its AssetSheet/BalanceSheet ...before this year leaves us.... too much liquidity ... banks are not lending but trading on the Stockexchange... InvestmentBanking!
The Iflated Asset Values are just going up and up... BondYields...well, let us not talk about that...
Stagflation?
Inflation?
Depression?
Nothing of the sort?
The CentralBanks of the System are Making their own Market Financial Theory every day...
In an odd twist... China has become a Capitalist and the CombinedWest has become StateDrivenCapitalSocialist...bailling out Too-Big-To-Fail since the DotComBuggle bust time....
Billionaires become even more bloated with Asset Price Inflation... millions of jobless...but the StockMarket is moving up and up.... MoneyCreation is Magic!
SemiCondutors are not going to stop the Chinese advance... it will delay it a bit as @Paul2 and other knowledgable Chinese memeber here have highlighted.
It will Force China to be not Lazy!
BRI is not about roads or bridges or trains... BRI is a System... infant... not even started yet...and its not about exporting excess capabity.... it is about Sinofication of the Global Financial Architecture.
Not to destroy the DollarSystem...but to Incorporate the DollarSystem.
What is amazing and required better study...is that the PRC has set NO target for its GDP...instead it is going to focus on 7 Stablities!
Decoupling is needed by both China and the US.. only the US is hurrying it to have the initiative!
IndoPacificCommand ... and for the last ten years of massive Narrative Construction of the CombinedWest around India... as Rising Global Power... and whatnot...
Modi's Huggomacy squeezing the air out of every Western leader.... the pampering/propping/aiding in every single way...has not propelled the ModiRegime to deliver the results...
If India wants $500Bln annual trade with the US then India shall have to do a lot of things...including becoming the FrontLineState against China.
PLA is camping in Ladakh... and it is NOT about that Indians built some infrastructure. The Chinese press is dead quiet about this... Why?
HongKong. HongKong.
As always HongKong was a Middleman between the FreeWorldEmpire and China... but of late it was also a key node of moneylaundering and Capital Flight from China...
The Hybridwar played out on the HongKong streets was rather impressive...NOT because of its ColourRevolution Blueprint...but because of the patience shown by the PRC....
Was HongKong part of some behind-the-doors negotiations...and protests were the leverage? We shall not know!
For now the annoucements by Mr. Trump regarding HongKong or banning/deporting the Chinese students ... or 'sanctions'... were all expected... so no surprise there.
However, this will put pressure on the International Yuan trade ....
PBC can lower the value of Yuan again...but it cann't do too much consider the integeration of ASEAN into Sinofication/DigitalYuan.
What appears clear that there is going to be alot of MediaWars... SouthChinaSea 'stand-off' ....
Taiwan will flirt with declaring with Independence....
Tibet will become the forefront and so will be XinJiang...
Alot of resolutions, Bills and sanctions... already prepared....
The US will squeez China on every turn...
WeaponisedFinance is bigger/worst than Nukes!
What could be China's CounterStrategies?
What are PolicyInstruements that China can use to sustain the pressure?
We must not overlook the critical importance of ASEAN/EastAsia as the most productive region on the Planet...and its further growth necessary for the Continuation of the DollarSystem.
DigitalDollar coming?
Soviets were Russians... a known quantity...and were a low productivity empire... in every aspect.
China is not USSR. So this ColdWar3.0 is anything we have seen in the past.
Only the TechnologicalStrong, Smart and Patient is going to win this ColdWar!
For a BemusedObserver ... a rather thrilling scene.... twice in a lifetime! Bonus!!!
Mangus
@sinait @tower9 @Blacklight @PanzerKiel @Mentee @Ace of Spades @masterchief_mirza @N.Siddiqui @Signalian @jaibi @BHarwana @Foxtrot Alpha @PakSword @SIPRA @Verve @Reddington @dbc @Deino @KAL-EL
@Slav Defence PakBrother mine, the Game of Chicken Thesis is validated again...as we have seen that the US/Iran agreed on the PM of Iraq.... working together on Afghanistan...and those tankers well...they passed... Muk-Muka!!! I would like to have your critique on the GreatDecoupling... which is also going to affect Pakistan in more ways than one... since this is going to unfold... we need to study it and chronicle it...if you could make it a sticky thread... would be wonderful!
Verve
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Simply awesome write up!! Thank you!
vi-va
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The ASEAN will be pressured very badly from both side. It's very hard for them to choose side, they are really scared on choosing side. If they chose wrong side, the consequence will be lethal.
Makarena
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Ancient Chinese have the concept Mandate of Heaven. I used to think it was just a justification to topple the ruler who lost the trust of the people. But I have been watching China's rise since Asian financial crisis in 97 until today, and I can't help but feel like there is a destiny kind of thing going on.
Before Asian financial crisis, Western and Japanese goods dominate Asia and the world, with Korean and Taiwanese dominate the lower end goods. Then the financial crisis struck, and Asian currency values fell apart, making import of goods expensive. Western corporations retreated from most of Asian market, while Japanese lost a lot of market share. Korean and Taiwan upgrading their industrial ladder, leaving the lower end good market to China alone. China swooped in and rise to become the new industrial nation.
In 2001, China joined WTO, and flooded the world with made in China. The US president at that time, Bush Jr, wanted to take on China. Hainan incident ensued, and both countries were at the brink of conflict. Clearly China wasn't ready at that time. Then 9/11 attack happen. Nobody see that coming. It almost like there was invisible hand intervened. The US ended up going to war with cavemen for almost 20 years until today. Meanwhile, the US abandoned the conflict with China, giving China space and time to rise further. The US also neglected its workers who badly needed skill upgrade to compete with a billion Chinese workers who just joined the world trade.
In 2008, Beijing Olympic happened, not long after that, the US caused financial meltdown happened. Needless to say the US reputation plummeted, while China rose. Since then, the Chinese kept rising further and further, overtaking other nations in GDP ranking, and become the number two, or one if you used the PPP metric.
Then Donald Trump came, and launched a trade war with China and allies alike. At the same time, Trump brought the US to retreat from world stage in multiple fronts, causing the US reputation to plummet even further. Trump also caused division in his nation that is difficult to heal. When the trade war was just beginning, and the US seemed like it was about to commit massive resources in dealing with China, the corona virus struck the world. Further recent events like the anarchy in the US today, kept distracting the US from giving its best in challenging China. With the coming great depression, the US might even be forced to shelve its trade war with China if the US want to come out of great depression faster.Whenever there is an economic crisis, people will need capital, and cheap goods to continue their standard of living. We all know who has both. That's why every time there was an economic crisis for the past twenty years, the Chinese always come out stronger.
For more than twenty years, I saw the Chinese leadership has led their nation with steady hand through crisis after crisis, and coming out stronger than before. If they can keep their steady hands while the US keep making blunder after blunder, I could see the end of US hegemony by 2030-35. But this is indeed the most critical time for the Chinese, it is a make it or break it moment. Blunder isn't tolerable. Maybe this is why CCP let Xi extended his rule.
Before Asian financial crisis, Western and Japanese goods dominate Asia and the world, with Korean and Taiwanese dominate the lower end goods. Then the financial crisis struck, and Asian currency values fell apart, making import of goods expensive. Western corporations retreated from most of Asian market, while Japanese lost a lot of market share. Korean and Taiwan upgrading their industrial ladder, leaving the lower end good market to China alone. China swooped in and rise to become the new industrial nation.
In 2001, China joined WTO, and flooded the world with made in China. The US president at that time, Bush Jr, wanted to take on China. Hainan incident ensued, and both countries were at the brink of conflict. Clearly China wasn't ready at that time. Then 9/11 attack happen. Nobody see that coming. It almost like there was invisible hand intervened. The US ended up going to war with cavemen for almost 20 years until today. Meanwhile, the US abandoned the conflict with China, giving China space and time to rise further. The US also neglected its workers who badly needed skill upgrade to compete with a billion Chinese workers who just joined the world trade.
In 2008, Beijing Olympic happened, not long after that, the US caused financial meltdown happened. Needless to say the US reputation plummeted, while China rose. Since then, the Chinese kept rising further and further, overtaking other nations in GDP ranking, and become the number two, or one if you used the PPP metric.
Then Donald Trump came, and launched a trade war with China and allies alike. At the same time, Trump brought the US to retreat from world stage in multiple fronts, causing the US reputation to plummet even further. Trump also caused division in his nation that is difficult to heal. When the trade war was just beginning, and the US seemed like it was about to commit massive resources in dealing with China, the corona virus struck the world. Further recent events like the anarchy in the US today, kept distracting the US from giving its best in challenging China. With the coming great depression, the US might even be forced to shelve its trade war with China if the US want to come out of great depression faster.Whenever there is an economic crisis, people will need capital, and cheap goods to continue their standard of living. We all know who has both. That's why every time there was an economic crisis for the past twenty years, the Chinese always come out stronger.
For more than twenty years, I saw the Chinese leadership has led their nation with steady hand through crisis after crisis, and coming out stronger than before. If they can keep their steady hands while the US keep making blunder after blunder, I could see the end of US hegemony by 2030-35. But this is indeed the most critical time for the Chinese, it is a make it or break it moment. Blunder isn't tolerable. Maybe this is why CCP let Xi extended his rule.
vi-va
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Awesome post!
OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ
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An accident scene! Sitting on the balcony overlooking the square, coffee and paper. Loud screeching brakes and eyes laser focused, time still and those milliseconds became minutes perhaps... either way the detail retrieved was incredible, who shot through the red, how many cars in the square, even perhaps if the drive was on his phone and what could've been done to avoid it... that last bit quite critical, it came with the vantage point but without any ability to change the course.
We are living through perhaps one such very large accident of global implications, whose shockwaves and ancillary details haven't yet been totally gleaned... better that last part on course correction... we are but mere observers. But, you! Enjoy that coffee and the vantage point... bemused observer indeed!
Are you a freestyle rapper dude?
OldenWisdom...قول بزرگ
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You are right and the logical way forward remains status quo, that is, U.S. China tango. However, politics of continued dalliance is in disarray if not utter chaos. Which is why I think eventhough there is disturbance, consensus is yet to be achieved.
China continues to be the most reliable way out of this recession but means writing remains on the wall for the U.S. only with delayed timeline, which is why the boat is being rocked deliberately. China still can go through several cycles of boom and bust through current generation bedore plateauing but India doesn't share that luxury... with internal fissures and faultlines exposed and external bogey loosing it's coercive energy in keeping bouquet glued.
Virus has pierced through unabated and at this point it is only a matter of time before it peaks again, but, more importantly it is yet to be confirmed if the antibodies on those previously infected will be effective in controlling a relapse is yet to be seen.
A lot is still very murky or on an unknown trajectory to draw any absolutes.
vi-va
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Interview in 2013
23:13
the Western alliance led a decade-long project to remake the Middle East. it turned out the world is much more complex now than a narrative dichotomy that the ethnic religious cultural fault lines nationalist fault lines proved to be much more consequential than the single fault line between democracies and dictatorship.
23:39
and we witnessing that again in Syria and in Southeast Asia in East Asia the same thing I mean is is the fault line between democracy and dictatorship is going to define the conflicts among China Korea and Japan, of course not.
nationalist fault lines proved to be much more persistent and consequential. so the current global architecture which is underwritten and pay for and run by the United States
and Western alliance is based on that narrative dichotomy of that single fault line story and that the story no longer reflects oddities.
therefore it's costing the captain of the global architecture America much more now than the benefits.
so it's I think it's a matter of time American people begin to ask for their country back and they already are beginning to do so the British people are asking for their country back.
24:41
I think Syria is probably a watershed event in that in that perspective, and so what I'm saying is where we are entering a phase I call warring States, meaning there is no pre design architecture that you could plug in and run your policies.
25:05
different states and different participant different actors are behaving in their own interests, whether it's nationalists economic or political ideological or ethnic or religious or whatever it may be, and so we're we're in unchartered waters and we'll go through a decades of that period and we'll see what emerges.
Last edited:
Yankee-stani
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THE confrontation instigated by the United States with China continues to intensify. The pandemic has escalated tensions between them that were already at a record high before the Covid outbreak. This fraught situation has variously been described as a new Cold War, end of the post-1979 era, a geopolitical turning point and less seriously, a ‘scold war’.
What does this mean for the world’s most consequential relationship? Is this a transformative moment from where ties will have to be completely redefined rather than reset? Will the two global powers arrive at a modus vivendi or will their stand-off become an enduring feature of the international landscape? How much of China-bashing in the US reflects campaign politics in an election year? Is the friction an inevitable result of a global power’s response to the rise of another that can challenge its predominant position — a classic phenomenon witnessed throughout history when power dynamics shift fundamentally?
Is economic decoupling between the two inescapable? Or will present hostilities eventually give way to a restructuring of ties in which relations may end up being fiercely competitive and selectively cooperative but with overtones of hostility?
Clearer answers will emerge over time. But a key factor that could shape future relations will be the US presidential election in November when the next occupant of the White House will have to decide how to manage relations with China: to stabilise the relationship on new terms, or embark on a course of drawn-out confrontation. In both eventualities, a return to engagement that previously characterised relations with China is unlikely.
ARTICLE CONTINUES AFTER AD
The future course of Sino-US ties will have far-reaching consequences for the world.
This is because the political consensus and public opinion that has emerged in the US — fanned by President Donald Trump’s actions and rhetoric — sees China as an adversary that has exploited the US on trade and poses a strategic challenge that needs to be countered and contained, not engaged. Many foreign policy advisers of the Democratic contender for the presidency, Joe Biden, also happen to be hawks on China. Therefore, whoever wins the election will likely follow a tough line on China.
Beijing’s interest lies in de-escalating tensions and steadying relations. But it is up against the weight of US-led Western opinion that has become increasingly sceptical and hostile towards China. The European Union which has strong economic equities in ties with China is being assiduously courted by Beijing to encourage it to follow an independent path from Washington. But developments in Hong Kong have added to European suspicions of China.
In the face of Trump’s provocative statements and actions during the pandemic, China has generally kept its cool, reacting sharply only when Washington crossed certain red lines or when Trump’s patently misleading narrative needed to be countered. But top US officials led by Trump have continued virulent criticism of China. This provoked China’s foreign minister Wang Yi to warn that the US was pushing China to the brink of a new Cold War. But he also stressed that both countries had a major responsibility for “world peace and development”, and that “China and the US stand to gain from cooperation, and lose from confrontation”.
There are limits though to China’s forbearance in the face of offensive US actions. There is fresh thinking in Beijing about how to deal with a more antagonistic Washington and growing nationalist sentiment that their country should push back against Western criticism and US bullying. This sentiment is already driving a more assertive Chinese policy in Asia.
China is expected to emerge as the world’s largest economy in a decade. This should itself persuade the US and its Western allies that engagement is necessary in their own interest with a country that will be pivotal to achieving post-pandemic global economic revival and addressing a host of other international challenges. However, this rational calculation and also the fact that China remains Washington’s biggest lender may not be enough to overcome US apprehensions about the challenge posed to America’s global position by China’s rise.
A report titled United States Strategic Approach to the People’s Republic of China, submitted by the White House to Congress last month, lays bare these wide-ranging concerns. It says that US National Security Strategy demands that Washington “rethink the failed policies of the past two decades — policies based on the assumption that engagement with rivals and their inclusion in international institutions and global commerce would turn them into benign actors and trustworthy partners”. The future approach should be based on “tolerance of greater bilateral friction”.
The report says that America is in strategic competition with China and enumerates the economic and security challenges posed by Beijing. The tone is of a power anxious to counter a strategic challenger whose economic strength and reach have already eroded America’s global pre-eminence. More explicitly, US Defence Secretary Mark Asper declared in February that China is top of the Pentagon’s list of potential adversaries.
In one of the most influential books on Sino-US relations published in 2017, Harvard scholar Graham Allison invoked the ancient Greek historian Thucydides’ depiction of the dangerous trap that emerges when one great power challenges or is poised to displace another. The historian had pointed to the inevitability of war when the fear of the rise of another power determined the established power’s actions. Allison recalled that in 12 of 16 cases in history this dynamic between the two led to conflict.
The need to avoid the Thucydides’ Trap has not only been Allison’s advice but that of several thinkers and policymakers, most notably Henry Kissinger. Allison often quotes Kissinger as saying, “The Thucydides’ Trap is the best lens for looking through the noise and news of the day to the underlying dynamic driving the relationship between the US and China.” Kissinger has also frequently warned of the devastating consequences of falling into this trap and urged the need to place relations on a stable and peaceful course.
The key question is whether the present era’s most significant bilateral relationship will be managed responsibly to avert a complete breakdown, even conflict. After all the future course of Sino-US relations will be a game changer for the world, with far-reaching consequences for the global economy and international peace and security.
The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK and UN.
Published in Dawn, June 15th, 2020
https://www.dawn.com/news/1563597/sino-us-ties-at-a-crossroads
What does this mean for the world’s most consequential relationship? Is this a transformative moment from where ties will have to be completely redefined rather than reset? Will the two global powers arrive at a modus vivendi or will their stand-off become an enduring feature of the international landscape? How much of China-bashing in the US reflects campaign politics in an election year? Is the friction an inevitable result of a global power’s response to the rise of another that can challenge its predominant position — a classic phenomenon witnessed throughout history when power dynamics shift fundamentally?
Is economic decoupling between the two inescapable? Or will present hostilities eventually give way to a restructuring of ties in which relations may end up being fiercely competitive and selectively cooperative but with overtones of hostility?
Clearer answers will emerge over time. But a key factor that could shape future relations will be the US presidential election in November when the next occupant of the White House will have to decide how to manage relations with China: to stabilise the relationship on new terms, or embark on a course of drawn-out confrontation. In both eventualities, a return to engagement that previously characterised relations with China is unlikely.
ARTICLE CONTINUES AFTER AD
The future course of Sino-US ties will have far-reaching consequences for the world.
This is because the political consensus and public opinion that has emerged in the US — fanned by President Donald Trump’s actions and rhetoric — sees China as an adversary that has exploited the US on trade and poses a strategic challenge that needs to be countered and contained, not engaged. Many foreign policy advisers of the Democratic contender for the presidency, Joe Biden, also happen to be hawks on China. Therefore, whoever wins the election will likely follow a tough line on China.
Beijing’s interest lies in de-escalating tensions and steadying relations. But it is up against the weight of US-led Western opinion that has become increasingly sceptical and hostile towards China. The European Union which has strong economic equities in ties with China is being assiduously courted by Beijing to encourage it to follow an independent path from Washington. But developments in Hong Kong have added to European suspicions of China.
In the face of Trump’s provocative statements and actions during the pandemic, China has generally kept its cool, reacting sharply only when Washington crossed certain red lines or when Trump’s patently misleading narrative needed to be countered. But top US officials led by Trump have continued virulent criticism of China. This provoked China’s foreign minister Wang Yi to warn that the US was pushing China to the brink of a new Cold War. But he also stressed that both countries had a major responsibility for “world peace and development”, and that “China and the US stand to gain from cooperation, and lose from confrontation”.
There are limits though to China’s forbearance in the face of offensive US actions. There is fresh thinking in Beijing about how to deal with a more antagonistic Washington and growing nationalist sentiment that their country should push back against Western criticism and US bullying. This sentiment is already driving a more assertive Chinese policy in Asia.
China is expected to emerge as the world’s largest economy in a decade. This should itself persuade the US and its Western allies that engagement is necessary in their own interest with a country that will be pivotal to achieving post-pandemic global economic revival and addressing a host of other international challenges. However, this rational calculation and also the fact that China remains Washington’s biggest lender may not be enough to overcome US apprehensions about the challenge posed to America’s global position by China’s rise.
A report titled United States Strategic Approach to the People’s Republic of China, submitted by the White House to Congress last month, lays bare these wide-ranging concerns. It says that US National Security Strategy demands that Washington “rethink the failed policies of the past two decades — policies based on the assumption that engagement with rivals and their inclusion in international institutions and global commerce would turn them into benign actors and trustworthy partners”. The future approach should be based on “tolerance of greater bilateral friction”.
The report says that America is in strategic competition with China and enumerates the economic and security challenges posed by Beijing. The tone is of a power anxious to counter a strategic challenger whose economic strength and reach have already eroded America’s global pre-eminence. More explicitly, US Defence Secretary Mark Asper declared in February that China is top of the Pentagon’s list of potential adversaries.
In one of the most influential books on Sino-US relations published in 2017, Harvard scholar Graham Allison invoked the ancient Greek historian Thucydides’ depiction of the dangerous trap that emerges when one great power challenges or is poised to displace another. The historian had pointed to the inevitability of war when the fear of the rise of another power determined the established power’s actions. Allison recalled that in 12 of 16 cases in history this dynamic between the two led to conflict.
The need to avoid the Thucydides’ Trap has not only been Allison’s advice but that of several thinkers and policymakers, most notably Henry Kissinger. Allison often quotes Kissinger as saying, “The Thucydides’ Trap is the best lens for looking through the noise and news of the day to the underlying dynamic driving the relationship between the US and China.” Kissinger has also frequently warned of the devastating consequences of falling into this trap and urged the need to place relations on a stable and peaceful course.
The key question is whether the present era’s most significant bilateral relationship will be managed responsibly to avert a complete breakdown, even conflict. After all the future course of Sino-US relations will be a game changer for the world, with far-reaching consequences for the global economy and international peace and security.
The writer is a former ambassador to the US, UK and UN.
Published in Dawn, June 15th, 2020
https://www.dawn.com/news/1563597/sino-us-ties-at-a-crossroads
vi-va
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The problem is, can liberal democratic, or new conservative republic manage their own country properly while keep fighting with China?
US economy won't recover in next 2 years if they got vaccine by end of this year. If US failed to get vaccine, it will be a bigger and bigger disaster, domestically and internationally.
Remember what cause USSR decline? Disintegration between ethnics, exhausted by arm race and stagnated economy.
China as a civilization had encountered much bigger threats in past thousands of years. China had a lower hand from 1949 to 2000s.
It's changing world, and changing faster than people can imagine.
Thomas Jefferson statue in front of Portland high school is downed by protesters as several monuments linked to slavery are defaced and removed during demonstrations
Protesters Topple Statue of Jefferson Davis on Richmond’s Monument Avenue
US economy won't recover in next 2 years if they got vaccine by end of this year. If US failed to get vaccine, it will be a bigger and bigger disaster, domestically and internationally.
Remember what cause USSR decline? Disintegration between ethnics, exhausted by arm race and stagnated economy.
China as a civilization had encountered much bigger threats in past thousands of years. China had a lower hand from 1949 to 2000s.
It's changing world, and changing faster than people can imagine.
Thomas Jefferson statue in front of Portland high school is downed by protesters as several monuments linked to slavery are defaced and removed during demonstrations
Protesters Topple Statue of Jefferson Davis on Richmond’s Monument Avenue
