Would Saudi Arabia beat India in a Full Scale War ?
Tuesday, June 25, 2019
By: Paul Rainn, D.B.A. Rainn Enterprises
Source Link:
CLICK HERE
Saudi Arabia is an extremely wealthy country located in a commanding position in the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia's wealth has allowed it to purchase the finest weapon systems money can buy from the United States, the UK, France, and various other European manufacturers. China has supplied some medium range obscelescent ballistic missiles as well. (MRBM's)
However, reputationally, Saudi Arabia has a poorly led and trained military, going by open sources. Its billions of dollars worth of shiny new weapons such as the huge fleets of Typhoons, F-15 Eagles, M1 Abrams tanks, US sourced littoral frigates, AWACS and Tankers are all largely maintained by thousands of foreign personnel.
Saudi Arabia has no apparent ability to service and maintain the majority of it's equipment without external help, and training standards are reputedly low, according to international observers. Many Saudi operators can drive, fly, or sail their equipment in peacetime, but trying to operate them in wartime against a skilled enemy is another matter. Officers are also reported to mistreat their men and look down on them, and their enlisted troops in turn are just in it for the paycheck.
The Saudi defence forces can run a decent internal security operation by most accounts, but actually fighting a war without the backing of its major power patrons and their hordes of well paid technical personnel, maintainers, trainers, and logistic officers would result in a rapid Saudi defeat.
Saudi Arabia gets away with having a showpiece military because it has the backing of the US and UK, and is important to major oil consuming nations such as China, India, and Japan. Saudi Arabia's ability to provide vast quantities of oil and hundreds of billions in investment is important to global stability so these great powers support Saudi Arabia, not undermine it. As long as the Saudis can supply oil and financial inflows this state of affairs will continue for Saudi Arabia.
As far as a fight against the Indian military the Saudis would be defeated in short order. The Saudi navy would hardly last more than a single battle against India's carrier battle groups, experienced submariners—including nuclear attack subs, and long range cruise missile and aviation strike assets.
The Saudi air force would be similarly taken apart. The IAF is an experienced and powerful force of more than 120,000 personnel and 1700+ aircraft. The low level of Saudi training would see India's long range SU-30's air dominance fighters and Mirage and Jaguar strike aircraft use the Saudi machines and airbases as target practice.
At this point, with the Saudi navy and air force all but annihilated India might show mercy and call off any further engagements against the outclassed Saudis in return for an apology and absolute loads of cash and oil as compensation.
India would refrain from vaporizing Saudi oil wells and military targets using its formidable nuclear arsenal of some 120-160+ weapons, as that would violate its NFU (No First Use) policy, and would just be seen as cruel and needless against a minor Gulf power.
India's powerful and battle tested ground forces, some 1,220,000 strong, would probably play no part as the Saudi's would have very sensibly accepted an Indian offer of a ceasefire after having their navy and air force destroyed.
The only real chance the Saudis would have of inflicting any sort of damage to Indian military units would be to use mercenary forces, and perhaps it's national guard type forces, which are reportedly much better led and more capable than Saudi army forces. Saudi Arabia reportedly has arrangements with Pakistan to supply several brigades of army personnel along with air force pilots if the Saudi's find themselves in extreme danger.
The Pakistanis are well trained and are known as good fliers and formidable ground fighters, but they would be of no help to the Saudis. The entire Pakistani armed forces are needed to defend themselves just for a week or two of all out combat against India, so Pakistan would not foolishly risk sending army brigades or pilots to kill Indian military personnel in Saudi Arabia, thereby providing ‘casus belli' to India for an attack on them and beginning the very war they don't want to fight. Saudi Arabia would be alone in this hypothetical matchup.
So the verdict in a full scale war is that Saudi Arabia, barring an intervention by the US, or perhaps Russian or Chinese forces willing to engage in a full spectrum great power conflict with India, will be quickly dismantled by India's military forces.
But, in the real world, the Saudi's are courting Prime Minister Modi and promising increased oil shipments to cushion the shock of Iranian oil being taken off the market, and are looking to invest in India's booming economy. India, as a major oil consumer, provider of massive amounts of skilled labor, and an increasingly active and assertive great power, is becoming a critical partner to Saudi Arabia, a state wisely looking to the future and to partnering up with the new great powers looming on the horizon.
- - - - - - - - -
By Paul Rainn, D.B.A. Rainn Enterprises
